Interesting read. Tried to copy and paste translation without luck.
If Trump will raise rates, the Russian army will enter Ukraine
The fateful date is approaching. My friends, of course, I understand that Ukraine is not Hitlerite Germany and I am sure that it will never be like that, but the experience of previous generations teaches us that history tends to repeat itself - once in the form of tragedy, another time in the form of farce. And we have already seen the tragedy. Therefore, on the eve of June 22, somehow you start to look more closely around and blow to the cold. Very much the situation disposes.
We all remember the war on August 8, 08, which began synchronously with the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing and we all know what begins in Russia on June 14. Sin, you know, Putin will not spoil the mass, especially since his hands will be connected at that moment. And in Ukraine there are forces that think so. And it is not groundless. Rapid response is possible only through the forces of the "north wind" and the corps of the self-proclaimed republics of the armed forces, and they, you know, are not iron. If the offensive begins massively along the entire perimeter of contact, then using the numerical superiority and element of surprise to steal, breaking through the 1st line of defense will not be difficult in 2-3-4 places at the same time, and crushing defenses on the shoulders of the defenders enter dense urban agglomeration already during the first 36 hours of escalation, where they will then be impossible to smoke, not allowing massive loss of civilian population. They have been following this idea for a Croatian operation "Molniya" (1995) for 2 years already.
At the moment, we are observing the implementation of their plan for slowly squeezing out VSN forces and moving the APU to the gray zone (so they pushed back the territory and reduced the neutral zone in 13 places along the line of contact). The plan seems to be unpromising if we consider it as a final task (so they will be pressing the territory for another 100 years), but not at all hopeless if we regard it as an intermediate one, aimed at diverting attention from the directions of the main strike in the implementation of the plan of the lightning throw.
Here is what the former commander of the Vostok battalion Alexander Khodakovsky writes on this subject (I give it concisely):
1. I state: the Minsk truce has once again been foiled by the fault of the Ukrainian side. Bakhmutka (Zhelobok), Gorlovka (Zaitsevo, Chigiri), Dokuchaevsk, Yasinovatsky block-post district, Donetsk airport and in a number of other places there is a sharp activation of the enemy's actions. There are daily infantry clashes and artillery battles with losses on both sides (up to 5 people killed and up to 15 wounded each day). The enemy is constantly trying to move forward in neutral (the gray zone has already been eaten by them, now it is just neutrality). Most often this happens by forces of one or two platoons. Occupied positions immediately strengthened and no longer give up. In a number of cases, such attempts are reflected, but sometimes there is simply no one to reflect them, and there is nothing to do - the front line is shifted by several hundred meters. As a result of the general superiority of the enemy in the 1st line of defense, we have to leave our positions in order to avoid encirclement and vain losses. And for the VSN bodies the ban on the opening of fire is the first to continue. We only react to the enemy's actions.
2. The main areas of activity of the APU are still Debaltsevo, Dokuchaevsk, Gorlovka, Bakhmutka, YaBP. In all these directions, the enemy has large reserves in the immediate vicinity of the front line, ready at any moment to strike a massive blow with the aim of capturing these points. Petrovsky district of Donetsk is also included in their number, where the threat of capture is not weakened, since the defense is held there by any departmental special forces, which patches holes in the battle formations of the linear corps. In the case of a large-scale attack by the forces of full BTG with the active support of artillery - the front in these areas will last no more than 2-3 hours. There is not much hope for a few strategic reserves of the VSN, because they are not able to arrive quickly to breakthrough places for a number of objective, and often even subjective reasons (I have already reported about the level of general idiocy and local pofigism).
3. The efforts made by the authorities to maintain the strength of the corps are insufficient and it continues to decline steadily throughout this time. The state of technology, the coordination of troops and other indicators that have a decisive influence on the outcome of military operations are also not impressive. About the quality of the command staff of the "advisers", in general, it's better to keep silent. (The data on the units will tell who should, but as practice shows, this will not affect the situation in any way.) While Kremen and his ilk are commanded by brigades, and then they go to increase, the threat of destroying the brigades subordinated to them, because of their complete incompetence, will be only a matter of time ).
4. There is a real threat that the enemy may decide (if the curators give permission) to strike in the direction of Gorlovka, Debaltsevo, Dokuchaevsk, Yasinovatoy, Zhelobka, Petrovsky district of Donetsk and a number of other settlements. Whether he will develop his offensive at the same time or not - I do not know, everything will depend on how the Kremlin will react. If the "north wind" blows with the same force, then the shelters, defending the already captured, will dive with pleasure into some Minsk-3. If not, they will go further. When they do, I do not know, but they have already completed the preparations for such an attack.
Have you read it? What thoughts? Stubbornly, yes? But do not rush to tear your hair. And that's why. This is written by Khodakovsky, you know, not to the MTR headquarters of the newly appointed commander of the MTR, Lieutenant-General Lunev, but to the curators to the Kremlin, but since this document is publicly available, it can pursue exactly the opposite goals, which you did not think about. Not for the first time already Khodakovski tears his hair with shouts: "It's gone, boss! Gips are being removed, the client is leaving! "- LDNR's defense is leaking, discipline is falling, the commanders are not in line with their positions, the armed forces are about to start their offensive and if urgent urgent measures are not taken (that is, to assign me to all posts at once), then neither for which I can not vouch. Since the situation is stalemate, I risk assuming that this leak can also serve as an invitation to active Ukrainians. Strange as it may sound now - it is their offensive and will untie the hands of the Kremlin with all possible consequences for Ukraine. Minsk-2, stalled, the Norman format, treading on the spot, even the discussion of the introduction of peacekeeping forces into the territory of the self-proclaimed republics does not even one step closer to the resolution of the long overripe Ukrainian question.
It is already clear that the recognition of the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian leadership in the hope of its adequacy was a mistake. All subsequent events only confirmed this assumption. It is not possible to delegitimize the existing regime in Ukraine at the moment, as soon as, if not in the case of frankly its unfriendly aggressive actions towards the Russian Federation, which is impossible a priori, there are no suicides there. What can not be said about LDPR - the escalation of hostilities there, in principle, is possible, and what some forces in Kiev only dream about, because this is the only way to prolong their existence and increase the chances in the internal political struggle. Therefore, I would not consider Khodakovsky's letters to the grandfather's village from the standpoint of selfish interest, but suggested a more subtle game (Alexander Khodakovsky, of course, not Pop Gapon, but in fact I would not rule out the option of catching the MSF from the FSB). And do not be bothered by Putin's response to Zahar Prilepin's question during his recent Straight Line - about the fatalities for Ukraine of its attempts during the World Cup to take any power actions to change the status quo in the Donbass. You all know who and where Putin worked before his current position. Read the lips - the Kremlin is only waiting for it. All forces for reaction are in full combat readiness. Reserves are accumulated along the entire Ukrainian-Russian border. The units of the permanent readiness were put into the "deployment at 2:00" mode. Ukrainians no one will give 36 hours. And do not be disturbed by NATO's activity on our northern borders, unprecedented in the forces involved (3,000 US troops of the 2nd Cavalry Regiment of the US Army and 1,500 combat vehicles) exercises in the Baltic States, which have now begun at the military ranges of Estonia and Lithuania and will end only on June 21. And the national exercises Perkūno griausmas ("Thunder Perkūnas"), the exercises of the Lithuanian Special Operations Forces Liepsnojantis kalavijas ("The Burning Sword"), the exercises under the command of the USA Saber Strike ("Saber Strike") and the NATO exercise Steadfast Cobalt ("Durable" cobalt"). Putin will not repeat Stalin's mistakes. No one will turn a blind eye to the "provocation" of the enemy, especially since he is waiting for them. The forthcoming meeting of the Norman four in the format of the foreign ministers in Berlin on 11 June will be the last point of bifurcation, after which either the force scenario will be finally replaced with a peacekeeping one, or wait for surprises. And they, by no means, will not be connected with the beginning World Cup in football.
What would you like more - to let the Russian team become the world champion or to finally solve the Ukrainian crisis in our favor?
So that you do not have unnecessary illusions about the negotiating component of this conflict of interests between the Russian Federation and the US, while the US is not a member of the Norman format, I will give just a few reasons.
1. Neither aggravation under Gorlovka, nor any other provocations by the APU by diplomatic methods can not be stopped, as they are part of the long-playing strategy of the United States to maintain the conflict in Ukraine in the hot phase and prevent its freezing in the Transnistrian scenario. Kiev will continue to implement a plan to slowly squeeze out the enemy and advance into the gray zone (and not only in the direction of the city), regardless of losses, to maintain a controlled conflict in the hot phase. Loss in manpower and mat. units will allow it to maintain the current level of intensity of combat operations for years, since they are far from unacceptable.
2. Everyone can observe that the Kremlin has not been allowed to jump out of the fork after the surrender of the war for four years. And it was foolish to hope that with the advent of Trump something will change for the better and he will give up the strategic advantage achieved here by his predecessor (unless, in exchange for concessions in other geopolitically important regions for the United States). The past 4 years of the positional war only confirmed the obvious, if someone expected that diplomacy would work, then, of course, they were waiting for surprises. Therefore, from the upcoming negotiations in Berlin, I do not expect anything at all - there is no one to talk with Lavrov, there is no American side, and its European component is nothing more than political scenery (in terms of their influence on Kiev).
3. Substitution of Surkov for Babich in the format of special representatives here did not change anything and could not change, because all the opportunities for changing the situation were lost as early as 2014. And now it's too late to drink Borjomi when the kidneys were turned off ... RF, of course, will still try to implement the inertial scenario , counting on the freezing of the conflict and the internal destruction of the existing fascist regime, but the result is likely to be zero, because, unlike our American counterparts, we do not have levers of influence on the Kiev regime.
4. As a result, after more than 4 years of war in the Donbass, neither side has achieved the desired strategic goals. The United States has not been able to squeeze Russia out of the territory of Ukraine, Russia has never been able to use the existing holdings in the Donbass to return influence to Ukraine in the desired way. Hopes that this can happen through some international negotiation formats did not come true, why it should happen now in Berlin - I do not know?conclusions
We have an obvious military and political impasse that can not be resolved either in the Normandy-Minsk format, nor the maintenance of the status quo on the line of demarcation, nor attempts to bypass the impasse through the Syrian war. The emerging strategic stalemate (in the conditions of the sides' refusal to seize the initiative through a full-scale offensive) at the current stage does not have a military-political solution and is doomed to remain hostage to unremovable contradictions in US-Russian relations. The solution of the issue is possible only through personal arrangements between Trump and Putin, the meeting between which is postponed for reasons beyond our control. If this takes place, each of the contracting parties will try to enter it with a strong negotiating position. And I do not exclude that Trump will want to raise rates, putting the Russian Federation ahead of an irresolvable dilemma - to enter into an open conflict with Ukraine or not. Everything should happen before June 22. We all entered the regime of maximum turbulence. The point of bifurcation will be the 11th. We look, we draw conclusions ...
Author: Vladimir Volkonsky
Photos used: https://ukraina.ru