Kurdish–Iranian conflict

FP wrote " With such reductionist reasoning as yours it's possible to level the same accusations against Russia in the Ukraine, yet we know that reality is more complicated. Sometimes you have to act preemptively, or your neighbours are in bed with your enemies and are plotting against you, or there has been some previous conflict that has never gone away and its resumption is inevitable.

Iran is not some land mass with a collection of different ethnic communities. It is before anything else a state, and a government, with its own set of laws. The Kurdish protestors are doing a lot more than what it took for the Yellow Vests in France to get a baton over the head for. Namely they are challenging the Iranian government, breaking the law, hinting at separatism and fighting with the police. That sort of thing is grounds for the usage of force to restore law & order in any country.

And I'm not making a judgement about the protesters' grievances here, I'm simply saying that every state will try and preserve itself and will try to put down insurrections that challenge their authority - this is inevitable. I'd also point out that the Iranian government itself is legitimate, fundamentally. Not necessarily in the Kurdish-populated regions, where it asserted itself with violence in the first place not long after the Islamic revolution; but generally, in wider Iran it was and is legitimate, it had enough of the population's support to overthrow the Shah, and enough support to have withstood Western attempts at pressure and isolation since then. It also has elections, a parliament and other organs, through which laws can be challenged and modified to some extent; more than in many of its neighbors at any rate.

This will not end with a new 'revolution', this will end, if it starts, as a new Yugoslavia or Syria. There is no groundwork for a new revolution. No new political theories, no popular political parties or charismatic leaders. What there is is a Western/Israeli objective to destabilize Iran and to this end they will support minority nationalists, corrupt politicians and armed groups.

Ideally the Kurdish groups and the Iranian authorities will sit down at the table and agree to address some popular grievances, while dismissing further outside attempts to inflame the situation towards armed conflict. "


Well point by point : Reasoning wrongly exists , but you have not pointed at any specifics as to why my reasoning is faulty . The only parallel with Ukraine is that there exited also an extremist and unpopular right wing apparatus , chose to stage ethnic war , despite all constructive efforts by the Russian side . However in Iran , everybody as well as the Kurds and others are subject to an undemocratic system . They are all rising up , unlike Ukraine . You can not use pre-emptive strike to justify ethnic genocide . If Kurd groups had actually crossed into Iran in massive numbers , then you could justify intercepting them . But here this is not the case . They were attacking unarmed protesters .The Iranian state is not legitimate . In the past election the voter turnout was not enough to form government , only 25% in places . The Kurds are not doing anything that other Iranians were not doing . Until the military started to bring APC into battle ! Then apparently , some defended by small arms ! The only unusual activity they did was hinting at separatism ! WOW , we better send Tanks into Glasgow and open fire with machine guns , against those pesky Scottish ! After all and any government would do this ? You mistake insurrection with revolution . What you describe as Israeli / western apparatus following it's own agenda and fomenting unrest is what is happening now , they are in power now ( or have you not been paying attention ) through this illegitimate right wing liberal apparatus and very compromised security , things can only get better . Ideally we get a democratic republic .

True , it is for me more than just the fact that Iran admin is now hand in glove with Russia or China , so I turn a blind eye and say nothing , because it suits Russia or China  or that I say something because Iran admin is not hand in glove with America or Europe . And the present Iranian admin , is an illegitimate and extremist right wing apparatus , that did not and can not serve the best interests of Iranian society . The situation in Iran strangely is very similar to Myanmar . A security / military right wing apparatus , aided by the Buddhist clergy , that sanctified their anti-social democratic rule and violent suppression of pro-democracy movement . Yet China , supposedly the largest workers democracy , aids their military , because it " suits" it's national interests .

The impression that the removal of present admin in Iran , through a revolution , will automatically lead to establishment of a pro-western canton , a right wing and overtly liberal / dictatorial and anti-Russian / Chinese admin , is in my view not warranted . This view , I think relies on impressions gained by media reporting of protests by Iranian diaspora in Europe / America , and not on the rather scarce footage of actual protests by Iranians in Iran . They carry very different messages . The former is much more monarchist / liberal right wing and hence not entirely democratic . The latter is much more democratic , relies on local population of students and teachers and workers , asking for democracy .

So the democratic forces , although less systematically organised , and free to voiced their views publicly in Iran , are much more numerous , and have in the longer term , if not subject to brutal suppression , much more chance of forming a true democratic republic . A revolution is like an onion , unfolding with different forces . Also even if these Iranians are pro-West or anti-East , it is their right to voice this , but unlike now that many of them hold power , rather awkwardly and cryptic / hidden  , after the revolution , they can show their faces openly without any religious mask , openly . So can others . Russia and China , while maintaining their relationship with present admin , should at least not alienate the Iranian people by their anti- revolution stance . Iranian people will remember .

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3yveXZ-DTxk


Here we see the brutal nature of the right wing Mullahs Hezbo-lies in action against unarmed protests . Some in the left , are calling for mass strikes as well as  protests . However mass protests only works in cases , where the ruling authority is subject to some form of democratic thinking . Here we seem not to  have such a situation ? The right wing Hezbo- lies have agreed among themselves to kill and lie about these killings . Some say this tactic of imposed war on the public , leaves no choice for the public , but to react , and this is true .  So the outcome initially will be a collapse of central authority ( brought on by the public ) with the right wing in an organised and armed state , and the left wing in a disorganised and unarmed state . Some now in the left wing say that they should arm , but wait and use armed forces  until after mass protests , when they will take the final violent and necessary step . During the previous Iranian revolution , the people raided Army weapon stores and obtained guns and defeated the Shah . They won . The revolutionaries and left wing , only lost , when they disarmed , and members of Army together with religious right wing then massacred them . Will they give up their guns , this time ?


The solution as I have said previously :

( 1 ) Building and displaying a nuclear deterrence , unlike the policy adopted by the defeatist liberals , which needs a democratic revolution .

( 2 ) The transfer of power from minority to majority , to solve economic and social problems , which needs a democratic revolution .

( 3 ) Establishment of self - sufficient economy , not dependant on trade and mainly in food production , and agricultural reform , which needs a democratic revolution .

A democratic revolution needs at least a nascent organised body of political parties , for the workers and farmers and teachers ( middle class ) . Removal of present regime , without an organised body of political parties , will lead to a power vacuum , that only an enemy will take advantage of , by territorial aggression or a puppet regime of dictatorship .