IF this is not solved through the deconfliction line ,It will be a matter of time US Coalition will get one of their planes shut down.. whether in a false flag or in a real combat. Syria can strike american planes with their S-200s anywhere in Syria. and or Russian airforce can also do the same if feel under threat their planes.
When it comes to any Airport military base anywhere in RAQQA. it will be a symbolic one.
Because US cannot deploy expensive planes in a military base ,when their planes are withing visual/strike distance of Syria artillery and or can be shutdown as soon as take off from the base with a cheap manpad.
So all the Syrian army needs to do is surround Tabqa base or anyone in question with its military and it will become a totally useless base by NATO and its coalition . Because they can't deploy anything there safely if the base is withing visual distance of Syrian army positions.
Maybe this is done by the pentagon to provoke Syria into a fight with US Coalition and put
Russia into a fight with Americans. It could be seen for the warmongers ,that is better for Americans to lose a plane and enter in a small military conflict with Russia than to allow TRump to get closer to Russia over Syria. So this could be done to tie the hands of Trump
completely over Syria ,because they if they lose a plane it will be impossible for Trump
to talk about getting close to Russia and cooperate with them in Syria.
In the other hand if the decision is taken to bomb US military bases in Syria.
Because unless anyone have not noticed yet..the games Americans and its coalition
are playing are Proxy wars.. but Russia and Syria can do that too..
IRAN will be the perfect card for this. Because IRAN (with Russia and Syria correct upgrades to its technology and logistic help)
could launch ballistic or even cruise missiles made by them and help IRAN to target
American military bases with precision. So the Americans use SDF and its coalition to cover
behind them for their aggression on Syria and Russia/Syria can use IRAN and their retaliation from their own land to target US and its coalition military bases in Syria.
SO that any possible retaliation from US to IRAN could only come if they start a war directly with IRAN. which they will not do .. Because IRAN can bomb Saudi Arabia oil fields and significantly drive oil prices to heaven ,and months or a year will pass before they can restore production of oil again. IRAN can also close the persian gulf transit
of oil (and significantly lower the value of dollar) and American navy can't stop it. if IRAN fire from land to any ship transit. this will be a complete new war , that Americans will not be
prepared to engage ,since IRAN will have an easy time targeting any warship who transit through a 15km passway.
It will be also a good time for IRAQ to demand American forces to leave. to increase the pressure. and made an alliance with Syria army. MOsul is completely not needed to be liberated now, the terrorist there have no way to advance are encircled.
In short this new escalation by US military,in my opinion was done to tie the hands of Trump
into any kind of restoring relations with Russia. If Trump goes against its own Military ,
he risk impeachment.and RUssia and Syria can use the IRANIAN card to against illegal US military bases. This will teach them ,that it will be impossible for them to create a safe base
for Americans or coalition forces anywhere in Syria , if IRAN is allowed by Syrian government to bomb it. It will be a major pressure on US military if can't defend against IRAN attacks in Syria. to do that they will need to deploy Patriots missiles ,which are very expensive and very vulnerable to Syria artillery. and This is why US can't send a large ,nor medium ,neither small military force in Syria into a base anywhere because it is vulnerable to be bombed. Unless they are deployed deep inside kurdish zones. but even there ,the risk are very high. Because they don't have effective ways to defend any military base deployed in Syria,any happy trigger Iranian or syrian general could blow up any US/coalition in Syria. lets not forget Russia gave Syria a lot of toscka missiles and Syria had Scuds with 300km range. US will need real air defenses setup there to hold a military base. with Patriots defenses and it will be very vulnerable to artillery attacks. in short any US military base in Syria can't be defended as long they don't declare a no fly zone on Syria airforce and on Russia too. which will mean a major war. So US military always have to keep in mind when building anything in Syria that a major war could start at any time ,at their base totally destroyed. without a problem By Syria.
Last edited by Vann7 on Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:03 am; edited 3 times in total