Looking at the construction of new ships it is necessary to take into account the model that Russia is adopting for its Navy.
At this point, Russia reduced its fleet, but has not eliminated no-one of the biggest types of ships. When Russia is finnishing the reduction of the fleet, is unlikely they eliminate totally the aircraft carriers, the cruisers or the destroyers of its fleet, because these types of ships remain actual as military concept. It means Russia will likely go forward with the new projects for these types of ships.
Roughly, not the exact numbers, Russia is going to a model with 250 active ships, including warships, minesweepers, amphibious ships, submarines and well armed boats (missile boats). Also the trend is toward an aditional 25% of ships in the reserve. Like 62 ships. For a total of a 20% of the fleet in the reserve. This reserve with the oldest ships likely will become an aditional mobile fleet for operations like this of Syria.
In terms of ship replacement and construction, for a complete cycle of reposition of around 50 years, it means the ships would be like 40 years in active service plus 10 more in the reserve. A stable rythm to build this amount of ships would be in 62-63 ships of these types by decade, which means 6 ships by year, with 7 some year. Taking into account the list of ships of thses types in construction in Russia today, it means that Russia has ships in construction for a decade (likely some of the list will go to export), and more taking into account the low retirement rate of ships expected until 2025.
In terms of geographical distribution of the fleet, Russia is going roughly to a model of 100 active combat ships in the Artic Ocean, 50 in the Pacific, 50 in the Baltic and 50 in the Black+Caspian seas. The aditional 62 reserve ships would be likely equally divided between the Pacific and the Black+Caspian seas, with 31 each because they are the closest places to the likely scenarios for operations outside the Russian borders like the operation in Syria.
And in terms of types of ships, Russia is going roughly to a model with 70+18 (25% aditional in the reserve) warships, 50+12 minesweepers, 50+12 amphibious ships, 55+14 submarines, 25+6 missile boats. In this case it is possible to see in the future missile boats replaced by bigger warships (corvettes or frigates).
Finally it is likely that the 7 ships of these types captured to Ukraine that Russia has, be included in this scheme in the future.
This is roughly the model of Navy that Russia is adopting today. To understand the model of fleet that Russia is adopting today is necessary to understand the plans of construction of new ships, because the construction plans will be in agreement with the model. I expect very few new projects that are not in construction today adopted by Russia before 2025. I expect very few new order of ships of these types in the next 5-7 years. Basically I only expect to be ordered the first unit of the Project 23000 of new aircraft carrier, the first unit of the Project 23560 of new cruiser
/destroyer, and the first unit of the Project 21956 of new destroyer.
Auxiliary ships, including low armed patrol boats, would be appart of this overview. For them, I think the reduction process is not finnished, and the Syrian campaign will help to see the real needs of the Russian Navy today.
Last edited by eehnie on Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:22 pm; edited 1 time in total