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    OPEC - Global oil prices

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible

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    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:45 am

    Uh no, Rosneft prices are $3 per bbl. The taxation would be roughly about $5.  Ural prices were about $20 for the month. Russia also operates two other oil indices. Sokol and ESPO. They trade at higher values as well
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:17 pm

    The 'agreed' cut of 10mbpd, which may actually only be 7mbpd in the short term, is nowhere near enough. World demand is dropping around 25-30mbpd. There is going to be blood on the floor as this plays out, especially Saudi and Iraq.

    US shale is a dead duck now.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:54 pm

    So is Canadian tar sands too. Price too low so companies are high tailing out.

    Guess that's what we get for privatizing our oil reserves and Petro Canada.
    Hole
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    Post  Hole on Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:38 pm

    Well, the region in Canada received a "nice" terraforming. From green trees to brown sinkholes full of toxic waste.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:08 pm

    Hole wrote:Well, the region in Canada received a "nice" terraforming. From green trees to brown sinkholes full of toxic waste.

    According to tar sands industry propaganda they clean up after their mess. lol1
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:38 pm

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Qatar-And-Russia-Fight-For-LNG-Supremacy-As-Prices-Fall-To-Historic-Lows.html

    Qatar And Russia Fight For LNG Supremacy As Prices Fall To Historic Lows

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:40 pm

    OPEC - Global oil prices - Page 3 EWEVDRUXkAQ3Bpi?format=jpg&name=large

    OPEC - Global oil prices - Page 3 EWECwrpXkAAKbqs?format=jpg&name=small

    OPEC - Global oil prices - Page 3 EWERoQVXsAQnCQK?format=jpg&name=small
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    calripson

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    OPEC - Global oil prices - Page 3 Empty May WTI Crude Futures

    Post  calripson on Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:48 pm

    Closed at -$36.92/barrel. No storage and forced delivery. No risk models incorporate this scenario. Margins wiped out today and many clearing firms might have capital issues. Imagine a small industrial producer that hedges energy cost by buying oil futures.

    Oil producing states are Red states (Trump supporting) like Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, Dakotas. regionally very important for their economies.
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:38 pm

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Cuts-European-Sea-Ports-Oil-Exports-To-20-Year-Low.html

    Russia Cuts European Sea Ports Oil Exports To 20-Year-Low


    Russia is preparing to significantly reduce the oil supply to the market from its Baltic and Black Sea ports—to the lowest in two decades in May when the OPEC+ production cut deal begins, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting a preliminary loading schedule it has seen.

    Russian seaborne oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and the Baltic ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga are set to drop next month by 43 percent on a daily basis compared to the oil export levels in April, according to Reuters estimates.

    As part of the new OPEC+ deal, Russia has pledged to cut its production in May and June to 8.5 million bpd—or by 2.5 million bpd from a baseline level of 11 million bpd. These would be the largest cuts that Russia will ever attempt to make as part of the OPEC+ group. In the previous deals, Russia hasn’t fully complied with its quotas, attributing non-compliance to weather, complex geology, or the fact that condensate was considered (until December) as part of its oil production.

    While Russia is likely to struggle to hit that reduction target, the slashed exports from the European seaports suggest that Moscow will be limiting the oil supply to international markets at a time when global inventories of crude and gasoline threaten to overflow amid the massive demand collapse in the pandemic.

    Exports of Russia’s key export blend Urals are expected to slump to the lowest level since at least the early 2000s, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon, cited by Reuters.

    Production of crude oil and condensate in Russia has been unchanged so far in April compared to March. According to data from the Russian energy ministry, seen by Bloomberg, Russia’s crude and condensate production averaged 11.289 million bpd between April 1 and 23—a week before Russia is set to reduce its production under the new agreement. In March, Russia produced 11.29 million bpd of crude oil and condensate.
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:52 pm

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Saudi Arabia And Russia Fight Bitter Market Share Battle As Oil Prices Collapse


    The Chinese word ‘crisis’ consists of the characters for ‘danger’ and ‘opportunity’. The unprecedented situation in global energy markets has provided traditional producers with an opportunity to displace incumbents in primarily the U.S. The price war Saudi Arabia started after Russia refused to reduce output in early March has decimated budgets of energy-dependent countries and oil companies. Riyadh and Moscow are playing with fire.

    The world's no. 2 and 3 producers of oil are devastating America's energy industry where prices went negative a week ago for the first time. Just before OPEC+ agreed on a historical deal, U.S. senators were threatening to remove American troops from Saudi Arabia if Riyadh didn’t adhere to plans to reduce production.

    Despite the political risks, Aramco has sent dozens of ships with 40 million barrels of oil to its refineries in the U.S. Furious lawmakers are calling it an economic ‘Pearl Harbor’. It is a bold move for a country heavily dependent on Washington’s security umbrella. According to Christian Malek, the head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at J.P. Morgan, “The Saudis recognize that they have one last big cycle coming, they want to make sure they position for that but equally they have a very important relationship with the U.S. and particularly Trump.”

    Despite the risks, one could argue that Riyadh reached two of its goals after starting the price war. First, it got most producers on board to bear the burden and proportionately reduce production cuts. Second, the accord reaffirmed Riyadh’s leadership of OPEC and energy geopolitics. However, it is to be seen whether the victory is ‘Pyrrhic’.

    COVID-19’s devastating effects on the global economy has reduced demand significantly. China and Europe are the largest net importers of oil in the world, making it extremely important markets for producers. Russia’s refusal to support Saudi Arabia’s proposal to reduce production in early March was partly caused by countries’ perception of risks concerning their essential markets.

    Riyadh’s energy industry was hit much harder by China’s draconian measures when most of the country was closed for business during the first three months of this year. While Chinese buyers are also very important to Russian energy companies and Moscow has vested political interests in Beijing, most of its oil heads west instead of east. Approximately a third of the EU's oil imports originate in Russia.

    Moscow only agreed to reduce production after European markets were hit equally hard by COVID-19. Saudi Aramco, in response, has been targeting buyers aggressively in Russia’s backyard. To lure customers, Aramco is offering discounts and payment deferrals for up to 90 days. While Russian and Saudi negotiators provide cooperative statements in the OPEC+ context, market share is highly contested.

    Riyadh’s aggressive position in the European market is somewhat offset by the structural advantages of Russian exporters. Due to historic reasons, European markets are connected to Moscow's oil fields by pipelines which significantly reduces transportation costs and provides flexibility. While Aramco is bound to the availability of tankers, Russian producers have fewer constraints. Also, European refiners have contracts to import certain levels of oil from Russia.

    Besides Europe, Riyadh is also upping the ante in Asia where Aramco has cut prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, which is the second drastic cut in two months. Concerning East Asia, Russia again has a structural advantage over Saudi Arabia. The ESPO pipeline with a daily capacity of 1.6 million barrels in Eastern Siberia ends in the port city of Kozmino and a second branch leads into China to service clients directly. As in Europe, pipeline imports are cheaper, more flexible, and have shorter transportation times compared to Middle Eastern oil.

    The importance of Chinese buyers in the current climate is only exasperated by Europe's drop in demand. Shipments of Russian oil that are already in European ports are diverted to mainland China. Some 800,000 tons were loaded from Baltic ports in the second half of March and 500,000 tons in early April. China is buying a record 1.6 million tons of Russian oil in April.

    The Saudis are making good on a promise they made: flood the market with oil. It is a risky strategy in a world where storage capacity around the world could be full in a couple of weeks. While the energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:46 pm

    What a load of windbaggery. Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese oil market has been reduced substantially and Russia has replaced
    the decline.

    I guess oilyprices dot com couldn't find any "loss" by Russia to harp on about.

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:22 pm

    kvs wrote:What a load of windbaggery.   Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese oil market has been reduced substantially and Russia has replaced
    the decline.  

    I guess oilyprices dot com couldn't find any "loss" by Russia to harp on about.


    The lesson I learned over the past 10 years: Never base any information on Russia from a Western based source/media.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:09 am

    It seems that when the big powerful actors are Russia and Saudi Arabia then they need to worry about the needs and concerns of the smaller actors like US Shale etc et.... funny because western media normally rejoices when big western firms get bigger by buying or economically crushing foreign competition...
    Big_Gazza
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:59 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Most of the time I only go to Oilprice.com to read what Mamdouh Salameh has to say in the comments section.
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:08 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    owais.usmani wrote:https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Most of the time I only go to Oilprice.com to read what Mamdouh Salameh has to say in the comments section.

    Same here. He roasts them like no other Very Happy

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