World oil prices and OPEC

Especially when there is a quote with no names given. Just a Russian source


Maybe it's some guy who is a Russian homeless man gave his opinion?  Who the fuck knows.

There should be a forum rule about posting fake news.

Russia said they won't do jack till US is part of the same agreements. Since US won't ever agree to that, it ain't happening

miketheterrible wrote:Especially when there is a quote with no names given. Just a Russian source


Maybe it's some guy who is a Russian homeless man gave his opinion?  Who the fuck knows.

There should be a forum rule about posting fake news.

Russia said they won't do jack till US is part of the same agreements. Since US won't ever agree to that, it ain't happening

Russia snookered the yanquis with their own arrogance. All they can do now is huff and puff about sanctions. These morons
apparently can't grasp that their precious sanctions are not actually doing any harm to Russia but rather stimulating its GDP
(ever dollar of import substitution is two dollars of GDP).

Oilprice is just another western information toilet with chauvinist pinheads that do not have any idea about the situation in
Russia and engage in projecting their delusions and fantasies on it. It is amazing how clowns who are wrong 100% of the time
get people to think that they have something useful to say. This is how Daniel Jergin remains the go to source for the MSM
on all things related to oil. The idiot was 100% wrong on all his oil price forecasts.

The heads of the US "shale oil" producers are feverishly lobbying Washington to impose sanctions on Russia. I have question for
these retards:

The WTI is a commodity index. As such any attempt to sanction commodity market suppliers is a pure attempt at price fixing.
So you clowns want the US government to set what amounts to tariffs so that the oil price will go up to the level you want.
Where is all your BS faith in the "free market". Russian and Saudi producers can function without bleeding red in the current
oil price range but you can't. So market losers are deciding on the market price to survive.

From Bloomberg: A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea

However, if Moscow’s — or Riyadh’s — strategy was to kill the industry, it would almost certainly have failed. U.S. finance thrives on such disruption. Even now, American shale assets will be mothballed and change hands, debt will be restructured, and hydrocarbons will flow, quite possibly at a more efficient cost per barrel. Sources of financing may change. The technology is here to stay.

In a shrinking market, the low-cost producer is king. Left alone, a global oil market would emerge in which large OPEC producers from the Gulf (the cheapest) would have the first go at selling whatever quantity they desire. A mix of global companies would be next; this second layer might indeed be tilted toward Russian operators, with low production costs and the helping hand of government. Unconventional producers — nimble, numerous, and price responsive (as in the U.S. shale patch) — would close off the system. They would produce the residual, and the cost at which they’re capable of doing so would set the global price of oil.

I for one hope there is no deal as well and prices settle as determined by market forces. The US and to a lesser extent Russia are in are in good positions based on this analysis.

Most shale oil producers are already bankrupt. The "finance" system in Amiland is an inch away from implosion. Good luck with refinancing huge loads of debt in that circumstances.

I have friends who are working in Saudi Arabia , the country there is suffering from the low oil prices .

The government can't pay most of the money to contractors in many fields specially in communication and construction fields . Many of those contractors didn't pay salaries for the employees for months

slasher wrote:From Bloomberg: A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea

However, if Moscow’s — or Riyadh’s — strategy was to kill the industry, it would almost certainly have failed. U.S. finance thrives on such disruption. Even now, American shale assets will be mothballed and change hands, debt will be restructured, and hydrocarbons will flow, quite possibly at a more efficient cost per barrel. Sources of financing may change. The technology is here to stay.

In a shrinking market, the low-cost producer is king. Left alone, a global oil market would emerge in which large OPEC producers from the Gulf (the cheapest) would have the first go at selling whatever quantity they desire. A mix of global companies would be next; this second layer might indeed be tilted toward Russian operators, with low production costs and the helping hand of government. Unconventional producers — nimble, numerous, and price responsive (as in the U.S. shale patch) — would close off the system. They would produce the residual, and the cost at which they’re capable of doing so would set the global price of oil.

I for one hope there is no deal as well and prices settle as determined by market forces. The US and to a lesser extent Russia are in are in good positions based on this analysis.

The US is in good position, even better one than Russia lol? Laughable twisting of reality, Trump is being heavily pressured to further sanction Russia for Shale oil, and he's probably going to bail them out sooner or later. Market forces? Commodity speculators artificially manipulate the prices of commodities like raw materials to make the Dollar stronger than it actually is. If the West actually upheld buzzwords like 'Free Market Values' than gold would naturally have 2-3x it's current value per oz.

kvs wrote:The heads of the US "shale oil" producers are feverishly lobbying Washington to impose sanctions on Russia...

Oh yeah, this is totally novel approach that hasn't been tried so far

ahmedfire wrote:I have friends who are working in Saudi Arabia , the country there is suffering from the low oil prices .

The government can't pay most of the money to contractors in many fields specially in communication and construction fields . Many of those contractors didn't pay salaries for the employees for months

And this here is Russia's gameplan, torch the Saudis and keep everything for themselves

Hole wrote:Most shale oil producers are already bankrupt. The "finance" system in Amiland is an inch away from implosion. Good luck with refinancing huge loads of debt in that circumstances.

Fantastical talk of US economic implosion has been around just as long as talk of Russian economic collapse and the fall of 'Putin's regime'.
The fact of the matter is that the whole world rushes after and craves American goods and services, whether due to exclusivity, higher quality, slick marketing or a combination of all. This is the fundamental reason why the US dollar is most used in international transactions and is also the world's primary reserve currency. In addition, since WWII they have re-ordered the global financial system entirely according to their design, which holds right up to present day. The US since then has also come to rule the waves, as the expression goes, the result all of which has allowed them to dictate international trade rules.

Once all of this can be fully grasped and appreciated, it is easy to see how financial markets, stock markets, trading rules, currency regimes etc. etc. can all be, have been and are being adjusted and manipulated to suit American interests. They have at their disposal the tools to leverage all of the above, including the most notorious of them all: simply by printing money. As long as US goods and services and stocks are in highest demand, they can continuously leverage their dominance without consequence. $23 trillion in debt isn't so alarming as long as they can underwrite it based on projected future growth in demand and further leveraging, sort of like a self-serving spiral.

Waiting, hoping and praying to see the demise of this giant ponzi scheme should neither be of undue concern, nor a substitute for proper policy and planning. Rather, countries should focus on building capacities for self-sufficiency, innovation and resiliency, minimizing exposure to risks associated with external shocks and the vicissitudes of foreign markets. Following this course, China developed to such an extent that demand for its products have grown to challenge and threaten American market dominance and the traditional direction of the flow of high-end manufactured goods and financial/commercial services. Trump and the American corporate establishment recognize this, hence the labelling of China as America's greatest threat, the concomitant trade war and focused attention toward the Pacific. In the end, the only country any should look to or depend on at all is itself, if it has the ambition and capability as Russia professes.

slasher wrote:

Hole wrote:Most shale oil producers are already bankrupt. The "finance" system in Amiland is an inch away from implosion. Good luck with refinancing huge loads of debt in that circumstances.

Fantastical talk of US economic implosion has been around just as long as talk of Russian economic collapse and the fall of 'Putin's regime'.
The fact of the matter is that the whole world rushes after and craves American goods and services, whether due to exclusivity, higher quality, slick marketing or a combination of all. This is the fundamental reason why the US dollar is most used in international transactions and is also the world's primary reserve currency. In addition, since WWII they have re-ordered the global financial system entirely according to their design, which holds right up to present day. The US since then has also come to rule the waves, as the expression goes, the result all of which has allowed them to dictate international trade rules.

Once all of this can be fully grasped and appreciated, it is easy to see how financial markets, stock markets, trading rules, currency regimes etc. etc. can all be, have been and are being adjusted and manipulated to suit American interests. They have at their disposal the tools to leverage all of the above, including the most notorious of them all: simply by printing money. As long as US goods and services and stocks are in highest demand, they can continuously leverage their dominance without consequence. $23 trillion in debt isn't so alarming as long as they can underwrite it based on projected future growth in demand and further leveraging, sort of like a self-serving spiral.

Waiting, hoping and praying to see the demise of this giant ponzi scheme should neither be of undue concern, nor a substitute for proper policy and planning. Rather, countries should focus on building capacities for self-sufficiency, innovation and resiliency, minimizing exposure to risks associated with external shocks and the vicissitudes of foreign markets. Following this course, China developed to such an extent that demand for its products have grown to challenge and threaten American market dominance and the traditional direction of the flow of high-end manufactured goods and financial/commercial services. Trump and the American corporate establishment recognize this, hence the labelling of China as America's greatest threat, the concomitant trade war and focused attention toward the Pacific. In the end, the only country any should look to or depend on at all is itself, if it has the ambition and capability as Russia professes.

What goods and services? The USA has one of the biggest trade deficits around. So it is not exports that are propping up the US GDP.
What is propping up the US GDP is US transnationals trickling money back to the US from other countries (aka neo-colonialism) and the
fact that the US can print dollars like Pancho Villa without hyperinflation since the rest of the world sponges up dollars as a "safe" investment.

Recently, the unloading of US treasury notes and dollars from international reserves has been rather substantial.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201907_01~c2ae75e217.en.html#toc2

kvs wrote:What goods and services?   The USA has one of the biggest trade deficits around.   So it is not exports that are propping up the US GDP.
What is propping up the US GDP is US transnationals trickling money back to the US from other countries (aka neo-colonialism) and the
fact that the US can print dollars like Pancho Villa without hyperinflation since the rest of the world sponges up dollars as a "safe" investment.

Recently, the unloading of US treasury notes and dollars from international reserves has been rather substantial.  

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201907_01~c2ae75e217.en.html#toc2

You are right of course. But as you are obviously aware, the implicit constraint in the argument concerning trade deficits would not apply to the US as it would to other countries. The US, whose currency is the default currency in international trade, is also the world's primary reserve currency. The US does not need to have a trade balance, nor can it as a result of the Triffin dilemma.

What should have been clearer for my part was the wider picture, which you summarised satirically, and not refer strictly to goods and services. The US can afford to exceed its earnings/inflows to a large degree (without letting it get too much out of hand). It has done this most dramatically of course by printing money under the guise of economic stimulus several times. As long as the dollar is in high demand for the reasons outlined, America can run up deficits. Because people all over the world demand US dollars for its purchasing power and value, and the stronger the demand, the higher the value. It's the American brand and the backing and guarantees that goes along with it, because they are the final guarantor as is built into the system. Things like trade deficits are ostensibly moot at this point where the rules of the game are written by the very country in question. It only applies to everyone else. Show me anywhere in the world, for example, where the US flag and the greenback don't carry tangible and real value.

Further to your point, the nature of the global economy is indeed integrated to the extent that many corporations are transnational but that doesn't detract from where the most of the wealth - capital, r&d/portfolio investments and of course tax payments and transfers ultimately ends up. As they say in gambling, the house always wins (and would suggest why the US doesn't want China or Russia to have rival casinos too).
You've alluded also to neo-colonialism, as exists indeed. In this case, output in terms of actual products (excluding critical and high-end products) is of lesser value and importance compared to services, and can thus be deferred to the 'hinterlands' while the associated financial and trade benefits, the flow of proceeds and the primacy of the American markets remain intact.

Anyway, back to the current issue at at hand, a laughably sarcastic interpretation of a likely outcome is carried by Forbes.
Russia’s 1.6 Million Bpd Oil Output Cut Pledge Chimes With Fuzzy Saudi And ‘Trumpian’ Math

Edit: @GarryB, I never implied that this would continue indefinitely. That would be stupid.
Just calling it as it is for the present and foreseeable future. (Then again, the current pandemic could very well upset the entire world order as we know it).
A wise move would be to stay cool and as much as possible take necessary steps to insulate oneself from the effects of that dreaded implosion rather than to count on it happening soon just to be smug about it. It's a move I like that Russia has been making.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Historic-Oil-Deal-On-The-Verge-Of-Collapse-As-Russia-Balks-At-US-Cuts.html

Historic Oil Deal On The Verge Of Collapse As Russia Balks At U.S. 'Cuts'

Current setup is 2 million from Russia, 4 million from Saudis​, rest from other OPEC nations and all of it conditional on another 10 million which are expected from external producers

It's highly unlikely but if it happens that would be pretty much Saudis taking a Sequoia up their corn hole

From RT:
OPEC+ reach deal to cut production by 10mn barrels per day, ending price war that devastated oil market - reports

As predicted by several analysts, this is as mild a move as possible to offer superficial reassurance to the market. Russia's cuts should be nominal in relation to its current ramped up production, bringing it back to around 2019 levels negotiated in the last deal (which Russia exceeded anyway). Russia as expected should come out the least for wear, especially if prices get up to $40+. Trump can sell it as a success, but US shale will take the hurt. The Saudis will be properly shafted. No sympathy here, or apparently anywhere.

Here just waiting for the dust to settle on the numbers.

Russia MUST GET the U.S to do A REAL, commitment, verifiable CUT. Otherwise it shouldn't agree to jack shit.

The idea that just cause some shale producers in the U.S are facing bankrupcy means Russia shouldn't seek verifiable, commitment cuts from U.S producers is a fools argument, from ignorant brains. Say the small shale producers go belly up and don't get bailed out? What's going to happen? American Giants will swallow the lands and the companies on the cheap. Once prices go back up they make use of those wells and land again. Hence you'll be back to where you started, without having addressed the problem at ALL. There is a reason the Americans are trying everything in their arsenal to avoid being forced to do a commitment CUT and virtue signal that they'll never be part of a CARTEL - they're fishing for fools. And unless Russia considers itself a foolish country (although throughout the years it has been unfortunately), they shouldn't agree to jack shit.

Get the U.S and its lackeys (Mexico) to a commitment, verifiable production CUT, or NO DEAL. There is no other alternative for Russia other than capitulating while having all the cards = STUPIDITY, INCOMPETENCE, and NEGLIGENCE. Kicking the can down the road doesn't solve the problem. Sooner or later it will have to be addressed or simply admit defeat to the Empire. Never let a crisis go to waste. The agglomeration of all issues due to the pandemic present the ideal scenario to get the U.S to buckle to Russia's feet on this issue. No opportunity like this will present itself for a long time - LONG time.

GarryB wrote:But then there is the obvious question... why should Russia care about US Shale oil?

It is unproductive, it is expensive, it damages the environment and causes all sorts of problems... a more evil Russia would probably want to encourage more wouldn't they?

The investors involved are probably barely breaking even if not losing money and the banks supplying money to these ventures wont make anything like the money they would be making investing in Russian oil projects... so why should Russia care?

I think reminding or informing the world about the US "shale"-oil Ponzi is worthwhile. The US acts as if it can replace Russia in global supply
of oil and gas. This transcendental nonsense is actually believed by morons who think that resources are a function of a country's power
and prestige. Not many people even know that this is not "shale" anything. The US-based MSM deliberately confuses Green River actual
shale deposits of kerogens which could theoretically be converted into billions of barrels of oil by spending more energy than the USA could
afford, and tight oil formations such as the Bakken. The tight oil (and gas) deposits are much smaller and are already near peak production.
So by 2030 the US will have really reached the post peak oil era. It will not find any other real oil deposits and will have to resort to digging
up Green River shale, crushing it and cooking it at 500+ Celsius to get "oil". That will never be energetically viable even with a finance
Ponzi scheme such as currently propping up US "shale" oil producers.

It's not just about "reminding". The U.S is a strategic competitor to Russia and a declared enemy. U.S shale gave the U.S the leeway to wage a sanction + oil price war on Russia (w/ Saudi help), while simultaneously pulling a major geopolitical power play on Ukraine. They were moderately successful at hemorrhaging Russia for a while. That's the importance of "energy independence" for the U.S. It's a weapon. It made them bolder and more aggressive on this front. Moreover, all else being equal, the U.S being energy dependent (not independent by whatever means) on oil producing nations (the cartel) is a more ideal state for the U.S to be in (from the perspective of its rivals China/Russia). A U.S that's dependent will seek stability in the oil markets to some extent. A U.S that is independent will seek, as it does currently, to crush and push whole nations out of the market (Iran/Venezuela) to make its shale profitable due to the glut. It's a simple equation.

Now that Russia has rebounded, is stronger, leaner and meaner; it should do to its rivals just what the doctored ordered. Not to exact "revenge" but to do what is competent of any nation involved in great power competition - crush and land blows on your rival when the opportunity presents itself. That's the game, it always will be that game.

You don't give your enemy until 2030 or some other estimation year some free passage banking on some calculation and assumptions just because. By "2030" they'll come up with something else or transition into something else to fuck with Russia and its allies. You don't wait a decade +. You hurt them when you can - no free passes, no chances. Arrogance goes both ways.

kvs wrote:What is propping up the US GDP is US transnationals trickling money back to the US from other countries (aka neo-colonialism) and the
fact that the US can print dollars like Pancho Villa without hyperinflation since the rest of the world sponges up dollars as a "safe" investment.

Useful article offering some insight into the practical application of Modern Monetary Theory in the pesent context of the US approving their $2 trillion economic rescue package to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus.

How the Government Pulls Coronavirus Relief Money Out of Thin Air

Playing out in the background of this shift is a debate over what is known as modern monetary theory, which says countries that control their own currency can run much larger budget deficits than they typically do, in part because of the power of central banks to create new money to help finance the shortfall.

By not just controlling your own currency but also having your currency foisted as the world's reserve currency, it's frightening to consider the power that's concentrated in the hands of those in control of the US banking and financial system (not talking about puppet gov't officials).
And at the heart of the entire racket:

...the Fed isn’t an ordinary bondholder: By law, it has to pay its profits to the Treasury. That means when the Treasury makes payments on bonds held by the Fed — either paying interest or paying it off at maturity — almost all the money eventually moves back to the Treasury.

When a government bond is involved, the cash moves from one government pocket to another.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Tank-Despite-Historic-OPEC-Deal.html

Russia’s Oil Revenues Tank Despite Historic OPEC Deal

Due to the oil price crash and the nature of Russia’s tax system, the budget of the Russian Federation is set to suffer from low oil revenues despite Sunday’s OPEC+ agreement for a massive collective production cut of nearly 10 million bpd.

Due to the monthly recalculation of Russia’s oil export duty based on the average price of its key export grade, Urals, for the previous month, Russia’s oil export duty in May is about to be 87 percent lower than in April, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

According to Bloomberg estimates on data from the Russian finance ministry, Moscow would be getting less than US$1 out of each barrel of Urals it exports.

This ultra-low oil export duty is the lowest in 18 years—since 2002--when the export duty mechanism was introduced, a finance ministry official told Bloomberg.

The price of Urals averaged around US$19 a barrel between the middle of March and the middle of April, the period for which data is collected to recalculate the export duty for oil in the next one-month period, according to data from the Russian finance ministry.

On the face of it, Russia agreed to much deeper cuts in Sunday’s deal than those it rejected in early March when Russia’s refusal to back a collective 1.5 million bpd OPEC+ cut led to the one-month spat and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In reality, cheating with quotas has been an art in Russia since the start of the OPEC+ alliance more than three years ago.

In the new deal, which lacks clear mechanisms for compliance observance, Russia’s target for oil production is 8.5 million bpd in May and June, Vitaly Yermakov and James Henderson of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a paper earlier this week. However, it’s not clear if condensate is included, which changes Russia’s overall cut. Including condensate, Russia’s share of the cuts should be 2.8 million bpd, without condensate, the cut would be around 2 million bpd, according to the authors.

“[I]t will be important to monitor compliance, especially as there is only a three-week period before around 20% of Russian oil production needs to be temporarily shut down. We suspect that this may be a task that is very difficult to achieve but would not underestimate the ingenuity of the Russian oil industry and the Kremlin to at least make a case for compliance by May,” they said.