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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    calm
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    Post  calm Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:46 am

    Some sick brainwashing

    That girl at the end is only sane person in the room.
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    Post  Regular Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:00 am

    Ispan wrote:Just a question. How do the Novorussians shoot down Tochka?

    This was my first thought in answer to a question

    "I am not stupid and I am aware of the state of the art in missiles. To shoot down the Tochka missiles is an impressive feat, given the lackluster record of Patriot missiles against SCUDs. Either the Russians are years ahead, or they have some sort of long range active electronic jamming capable of making the warheads self-detonate in flight. I am deducing based on the distances and interception times involved, if that there's a SAM system shooting down those Tochkas, it must be deployed in Donbass and close to the frontlines. I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up, but is basic rocket science. However, no one has seen or recorded any trails so it could be some kind of electronic secret weapon."


    But then I thought, one thing is a ballistic missile like the SCUD, and another very different a short range rocket like the Tochka. I recall now that ships have anti missile rockets and that they can also be brought down by Vulcan guns aimed by radar.


    So perhaps there's no Russian "secret weapon" and they have been destroyed simply by Novorussian antiaircraft missiles?

    And there's another intriguing possibility. These missiles have been quite erratic. Some were blown up in the air, some exploded in the middle of empty spaces, and only a few actually hit their targets, mostly factories.

    What if it is actually Ukrainian crews sabotaging their missiles? There were reports that at Slavyansk many artillery shells  failed to explode. I attributed these duds to just old ammo or incompetent gunners forgetting to set fuses. A Spanish doctor volunteer in Donbass reported for slavyangrad.es that he had heard and seen about a unusually high proportion of duds and reported he was told that this was done by Ukrainian gunners sympathetic to the rebels, or unwilling to kill civilians, that obeyed their fire orders but didn't set the fuses to prevent deaths.

    I don't believe there are many good people remaining in the Ukrainian army after three years of war, but perhaps there are, and the firing crew realize the implications of firing a missile with a half ton of explosives into a residential area and deliberately aimed at the wrong place, or like last one, somehow set the missile fuse to explode relatively harmlessly in the air, obeying orders and using as an excuse that "don't know what happened, sir. Russians must have some secret weapon to destroy our missiles". Still, I don't believe they did this out of humanity, but most likely realizing the war is lost, and some day in the future they may be accountable for war crimes.


    Unlikely, I know, but perhaps not as far fetched as Russian "secret weapons".


    There is nothing wrong with Tochkas. Problem happens when Ukrainians maintain and use it.
    Most likely there was a failure and missile fell.
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    Post  Project Canada Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:20 am


    Car Blast in Lugansk May Have Killed Republic's Senior Commander

    A car blast in the capital of the Lugansk People's Republic in Donbass on Saturday killed two people.

    "The car of the chief of LPR People's Militia Office, Oleg Anashchenko, exploded… There were two people in the car, both are dead. According to the preliminary data, one of them is Anashchenko," the police press service said.

    A source in the law enforcement told Sputnik that the blast occurred at about 8 a.m. (06:00 GMT).



    The situation in southeastern Ukraine has escalated over the past few days, in particular near the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, where clashes between Kiev forces and the troops of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have intensified. The conflicting parties have both accused each other of initiating the violence.

    A spokesperson of DPR’s Office of Ombudsman said on Friday that over 30 people have been killed and more than 80 others, including 47 civilians, have been injured in the republic as a result of violence this year.

    On October 16, a blast in an elevator killed a prominent commander of the Donetsk People's Republics colonel Arseniy Pavlov (call sign Motorola). The Donetsk authorities accused Kiev of masterminding the murder.

    In May, a top military commander of the Lugansk People's Republics, Alexei Mozgovoi, was assassinated by unknown gunmen when his car ran into an ambush.

    The Donbass conflict erupted in April 2014 as a local counter-reaction to the West-sponsored Maidan coup in Kiev that had toppled legitimate President Viktor Yanukovych in February. Residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions held independence referendums and proclaimed the People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Kiev has since been conducting a military operation, encountering stiff local resistance.

    In February 2015, Kiev forces and Donbass independence supporters signed a peace agreement in the Belarusian capital of Minsk. The deal stipulates a full ceasefire, weapons withdrawal from the line of contact in Donbass, as well as constitutional reforms that would give a special status to the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Despite the agreement, the ceasefire regime is regularly violated, with both sides accusing each other of multiple breaches, undermining the terms of the accord.

    https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702041050338242-lugansk-car-blast-anashchenko/
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:40 am

    Yes, pretty pathetic that the Ukrainians have to use terrorist tactics to kill a police chief.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:01 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Yes, pretty pathetic that the Ukrainians have to use terrorist tactics to kill a police chief.
    Yes, it is pathetic.

    But even more pathetic is that Russia fails to give protection to leaders of its own protectorate.

    And Russia also fails to revenge these terrorist attacks. I guess it is not how Russia works. But I would love to see Russia assassinating Ukrainian political and military leaders as a revenge for these attacks.

    But it won't happen.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:05 am

    Assassination of Motorola went unpunished and assassination of Anaschenko will also go unpunished.
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    Post  Azi Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:38 am

    calm wrote:Some sick brainwashing

    That girl at the end is only sane person in the room.
    WTF??? This is really weird and disturbing. pwnd The "subhumans", "alcoholics" and "junkies" should kick his ass as quick and hard as possible! angry attack
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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:44 pm

    Azi wrote:
    calm wrote:Some sick brainwashing

    That girl at the end is only sane person in the room.
    WTF??? This is really weird and disturbing. pwnd The "subhumans", "alcoholics" and "junkies" should kick his ass as quick and hard as possible! angry attack

    According to the EU this is integration into the civilized world represented by the EU. So the EU supports racism and racial defamation and ethnic hate
    being taught in classes. That is why NATO=NATzO.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:21 am

    Today's long update https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-4022017

    and they have a new site, in Russian

    Also I would like to state that our press service has put into operation the official website of the DPR Armed Forces (http://armiyadnr.su/) where the official and operational information of the Command will be published.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:32 am

    Sounds like an electricity pylon demolished by a sabotage squad, they didn't even need to enter DNR controlled territory.

    The Ukrainian forces blew up the power tower near the Horlivka city in the Donbass region on Saturday, prompting the city's authorities to switch on to the reserve power line, a spokesman for the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said Saturday.

    DONETSK (Sputnik) – The statement follows the DPR decision to enhance security measures in the self-proclaimed republic due to the threat of terrorist attacks after the death of one of the neighboring Lugansk People’s Republic's (LPR) top commanders.

    “The forces exploded the power tower at 14:30 local time [11:30 GMT] on the territory controlled by Kiev, near the town of Svitlodarsk. As a result, the whole city of Horlivka was left without power. Currently the city receives energy from the nearest towns,” the spokesman said.


    https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702051050356986-ukrainian-forces-power-tower-blast-horlivka/
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    Post  franco Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:13 am

    Interview with Givi re latest fighting. Received another wound apparently;

    https://www.novorosinform.org/news/66147
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    Post  eehnie Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:17 am


    Still I expect Novorussia advancing in two sectors.
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    Post  GarryB Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:51 am

    But even more pathetic is that Russia fails to give protection to leaders of its own protectorate.

    And Russia also fails to revenge these terrorist attacks. I guess it is not how Russia works. But I would love to see Russia assassinating Ukrainian political and military leaders as a revenge for these attacks.

    What has this to do with Russia?

    If these Ukrainians want to remain Ukrainian then it is a Ukrainian problem.

    If they want to join Russia then it might become a Russian problem if Russia accepts them.

    Russia has its own problems and has no business interfering in other countries the way the US and the west does.

    Assassination of Motorola went unpunished and assassination of Anaschenko will also go unpunished.

    Again... not Russias problem.

    If these Ukrainians are not doing anything for themselves then why should Russia lift a finger?

    These murders should be investigated... again nothing to do with Russia.

    If they can't get justice then they should get their own revenge.... either way not Russias problem.

    The Crimea voted to join Russia so any murders are Russias problem... those in the Ukraine need to make a choice... so far they are ukrainians so it is not Russias problem.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:37 pm

    Trump and Poro have had a chat

    President Trump had a phone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart on Saturday, during which he pledged to cooperate with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine in order to restore peace in the Donbass region. Political analyst Alexander Khrolenko provides his reasons why Poroshenko will eventually have no choice but to implement the Minsk accords.

    US President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko held a phone conversation on Saturday, discussing the intensification of fighting in the republics of Donbass.

    President Trump has pledged to cooperate with leaders of Russia, Ukraine and other nations in order to restore peace in war-torn Donbass, the White House announced following the conversation. "We will work with Ukraine, Russia, and all other parties involved to help them restore peace along the border," Trump said, as cited in the statement.

    According to Poroshenko's spokesman Svyatoslav Tsegolko, both presidents expressed readiness to "explore additional steps to enhancing the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States."

    Meanwhile, RIA Novosti political analyst Alexander Khrolenko has provided his reasons why the fighting in the southeast of Ukraine has intensified shortly after the new US president has been sworn in. "Kiev is burning out its non-core assets," reads his article for RIA Novosti. The political analyst further explains that the so-called "Ukrainian project of the West" is collapsing thus the Ukrainian president is trying to make desperate attempts to win back his lingering dream of the EU and NATO membership. That is a possible reason behind the intensification of fighting in the country's southeast.

    "However the worst will happen when all the social aggression accumulated for years by the Ukrainian population due to all the Ukrainian draw-backs spills within the country. Having understood this and without farther waiting for any shootout in the center of Kiev, the prudent Ukrainian leader has launched predominantly infantry attacks in Donbass in order to get rid of the most brutal radical and nationalists," Khrolenko suggests.


    There is more https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702051050362021-ukraine-russia-us-rapprochement/

    Plus a bit more from the Ukie side

    According to Poroshenko's spokesman Svyatoslav Tsegolko, both presidents expressed readiness to "explore additional steps to enhancing the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States." "A particular attention was paid to the settlement of the situation in Donbas and to achieving peace by political and diplomatic means. The two leaders expressed deep concern about the spike in tension and deterioration of humanitarian situation, especially in the area of Avdiivka. They stressed on the need for establishing immediate ceasefire regime," Tsegolko wrote on Facebook.

    Tsegolko added that Poroshenko "expressed gratitude to the Head of the White House for firm support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," stating that the Ukrainian president spoke in favor of intensifying economic and business connections between the countries.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:13 pm

    Surprise this made it into the DONI comment, my highlight, so what were the UA really aiming at the bridge as per their earlier comments?

    Sunday, February 5, 2017 - 12:51

    The DPR Operational Command and the State Security Ministry of the Republic confirmed the version of shelling "Motel" station in the Kalininsky district of Donetsk from multiple rocket launchers "Uragan," according to the representatives of the MGB Command.

    "According to all available facts and material evidence, experts have concluded that the shelling of "Motel" station at the eastern exit of Donetsk was conducted from "Uragan"," the representative of the Operational Command said. "Fortunately, the bridge was not hit, which would be completely destroyed. The epicenter of the missile strike was the roadbed near the military ammunition store. "

    The Command stressed that it was concluded after the discovery on the shelling's site of the MLRS "Uragan" projectile, a funnel's examination and the projectile fragments.
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    Post  Ispan Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:26 pm

    Bad translation. There was a military surplus store before the war at the place the missile hit. It was not an ammo dump.

    Reports of it being a Tochka are censored, and it seems it was already confirmed with photos of remains of the missile, officialdom talks about a Uragan rocket, and some even claim an ammo truck was blown up. I suspect this is because it's such a flagrant violation that demands some answer that the Novorussian leaders are told to hide it under the carpet as Moscow does not want trouble right now, need to wait a few months to give Trump a chance.




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    Post  Ispan Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:27 pm

    Some thoughts I wrote at another place, apologies for copypasting


    I won't believe to any figures right now.
    But indirect facts from Ukrainian source says their casaulities are significant.
    For example, panic demands for blood and other support can be heard from Kiev hospital. but it's known that wounded soldiers first of all were directed to Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa. Why Kiev now??? Does this mean casaulities are so large that the other towns can't handle them?
    THis are just thoughts...

    Already covered by me in previous posts. It's exactly what you describe. Frontline military hospitals are already full due to a constant intake of wounded. When there's a spike in activity the wounded have to be moved further back .

    What I find interesting is that Ukrainian army is not able to organize hospital trains, instead recurring for aerial evacuation. I understand that given the state of the roads and the snow, it's quicker to evacuate by helicopter from the frontline and fly them to the inmediate rearguard, but there's no speed advantage in evacuating by cargo plane, unless long distances are involved. So why fly the wounded so far away? Only makes sense if all the hospitals close the front are already full.

    I also think besides incompetence and lack of resources, as it is easier to have a medicalized 'copter or plane, is the desire to conceal the large number of wounded. Hospital trains would be very conspicous and noticed by many witnesses. Flying to military aerodromes closed to the public does not draw so much attention.

    Pictures of such a medevac flight in this entry


    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3226018.html


    I know true casualty reports will not be known until years after the war, but we can do estimates and projections based on known intensity of the fighting and available evidence.

    Such as this

    https://southfront.org/donbass-escalation-update-february-3-2017/

    Relevant excerpt:

    Losses


    Kiev customarily issues a daily report of a few killed and a dozen wounded. Though it’s not clear how to reconcile these reports with the following information from Kiev:

    “All concerned blood donors are asked to appear at the Military Hospital Blood Center between 9:00 and 12:00. It is expected to receive soldiers wounded in Avdeyevka. The biggest shortages are in Rh-negative blood types, as well as AB-Positive.”

    This is from Channel 112 reporter Elena Morozova, from the Kiev Central Clinical Military Hospital…

    Isn’t this odd? Let me explain. Most of the wounded are usually sent to Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk. Once the hospitals there overflow, the remainder are sent to Kiev, Odessa, Vinnitsa, etc. Morozova’s report is from Kiev (!!!) where there is already a blood shortage (!!!). But, officially, there are no losses…or only a few…or at most a dozen or two. You get the idea.

    This is just one of the indicators which the official propaganda could not interdict (though they were able to silence the Kharkov “sisters of mercy”) but which reveals the real extent of casualties.



    I am relieved to know there are not as many civilian casualties as feared.


    And since this thread is mainly about the condition of the Ukrainian forces, this excerpt is also relevant and interesting

    https://southfront.org/new-uaf-tactics-svetlodarsk-salient-and-avdeyevka/


    During the initial phase of the battle at Avdeyevka, the UAF were able to launch a swift and surprise attack and force back NAF forces from their positions near the Yasinovataya cloverleaf. What happened?

    New UAF tactics

    One should first of note note that the Kiev regime forces are using new tactics. Each operation is preceded by lengthy preparation (and there is no shortage of time and the front line is static). Then a surprise attack using forces ranging from a platoon to a company. If successful, consolidation on seized positions then defense. If the factor of surprise is lost, immediate retreat to original positions.

    Why this worked now and not before

    In 2014-15, well organized intelligence was of great help to the Donbass militia and hampered the Kiev regime forces. The local population loyal to the Republics betrayed its “liberators” in any way it could. Now the situation is different.

    You may remember that during the fall of 2016 the SBU conducted a total sweep of the territory close to the front line to identify “Republic spies.” Thousands of individuals underwent filtration, dozens were arrested then exchanged for captured UAF soldiers. NAF intelligence thus lost many of its sources and now it can’t provide timely warnings when the enemy is preparing an offensive operation.


    Since this war is in many ways reminiscent of the trench warfare of 1914-1918, and similar situations produce similar solutions, it seems the regime forces, in view of their inability of achieving a breakthrough, are resorting, in addition to attrition by incessant shelling, to "bite and hold" attacks.

    This is something resembling tactics by Ukrops, but I am not impressed.

    - Prolonged bombardments preclude surprise, and there's no sophistication in their artillery tactics. No fire plan beyond a barrage on those frontline positions visible from their own. Ukrainian artillery does not have the fire superiority to really be able to make these tactics succesful.

    -Attacks are small, and would be classed as "trench raids". This lack of ambition points to a lack of preparation: a lack of quality in the infantry and trained officers that can successfully carry out a coordinated battallion scale attack with artillery and tank support. The Ukrainan army also shies from mass attacks because they would result in failures with attendant mass losses.
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    Post  auslander Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:24 pm

    Never trust the orcs. Never believe they are not capable of Battalion size attacks. The 'small' bite and hold attacks are just that but NAF should never be lulled in to accepting these small attacks as the best the orcs can do. Always remember who the advisors for the orcs are, seasoned foreigners who have 'been there and done that' and who don't give a darn about orc or civilian casualties.
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    Post  Arctic_Fox Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:01 pm

    Russia deploys more troops to border with Ukraine:
    http://defence-blog.com/army/russia-deploys-more-troops-to-border-with-ukraine.html



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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:21 pm

    Naval Infantry? Wat?

    For those who want to know, these are BSF vehicles on first video, second i'd guess as well.
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    Post  auslander Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:23 am

    Arctic_Fox wrote:Russia deploys more troops to border with Ukraine:
    http://defence-blog.com/army/russia-deploys-more-troops-to-border-with-ukraine.html

    You are joking, yes? If not, please look at a map.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:19 pm

    Softening up the south now

    Monday, February 6, 2017 - 11:12

    The front-line villages in the south of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have been massively shelled on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

    Five has been conducted since the evening of February 5, Sakhanka Village Administration Head Igor Podgorny states.

    “Battles are taking place along the whole south front. The villages of Sakhanka, Leninskoye, Kominternovo are under shelling. Fire has been conducted since 10:00 p.m. and it has been ceased only for a short period of time,” said Igor Podgorny.

    According to him, there is no information about destructions yet. It’s conditioned by the fact that fire at the villages isn’t ceased actually.

    DONi News Agency
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    Post  Ispan Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:11 pm

    Found another report from Yurasumy in english

    https://southfront.org/donbass-update-february-6-2017/

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    Post  franco Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:41 pm



    http://novorossia.today/emergency-statement-high-command-dpr-peoples-army-col-basurin-x-hour-coming-poroshenko-video/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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    Post  franco Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:43 pm

    http://en.news-front.info/2017/02/06/stab-in-the-back-poland-demanded-ukraine-to-change-ideological-course/?utm_source=TW&utm_medium=ENG+TW&utm_campaign=SNAP%2Bfrom%2BEnglish+News+front

    Sponsored content

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