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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    Cowboy's daughter
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sat May 28, 2016 9:35 am

    Khepesh wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:(VIDEO) Avdeevka: UAF snipers shoot at OSCE observers and journalists
    And on the same day that OSCE and journalists, not all Russian but from other countries, were fired at by ukrops from Avdeevka, the BBC on their site carried a report saying how it was ukrops being attacked everyday, and their excuse for a journalist, Tom Burridge, interviewing a ukrops who was saying how they are fighting for "their" land. Of course there were no BBC journalists at the incoming end of the firing, no reports from Yasinovataya, Zaitsevo, Golmoisky, Kuibshevsky, Staromikhailovka, Marinka, Sahanka, or Dokuchaevsk which got hammered again overnight. The "C" in BBC means corporation, but I can think of another word beginning with C that fits better.

    Yes. I saw the BBC "article", but put no faith in it, and didn't even read it or look at it, Khepesh.

    & Patrick Lancaster posted this:

    Patrick Lancaster ‏@PLnewstoday May 26

    #OSCE's A. Hug answers Why was a civilian home shelled by #Ukraine in #Spartak, #Donetsk suburb, not report by OSCE

    (My personal opinion-- A. Hug is despicable. )



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    Post  Khepesh Sat May 28, 2016 9:57 am

    Some good news. Yesterday at Starognatovka, on the Volnovakha front, the commander of ukrops 72 Brigade, Andrei Zhuk, was killed when the BTR he was travelling in hit a landmine.
    http://postovoi.com/politics/57132-v-donbasse-po-doroge-v-gospital-umer-kombat-72-y-brigady-vsu.html
    http://apostrophe.com.ua/news/society/accidents/2016-05-28/gibel-kombata-v-zone-ato-poyavilis-foto-s-mesta-proisshestviya-/60520

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 36 8b4e168b0ae2

    Edit: Article now on Cassad, partly about Zhuk, but mostly about Dokuchaevsk, which was under fire from D-30 overnight and early this morning, not mortars. Again it is stressed the importance of VSN positions at Dokuchaevsk and Elenovka and that these positions have been re-enforced. I think it possible that in the next weeks there might be another ukrops probing attack such as the one at Belaya Kamenka last summer, which of course failed badly. On that occasion a very large tank force was sent to Telmanovo, just in case.  http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2770129.html

    Edit: And to show how it can sudenly move back to the situation last year with the almost constant bombardments of front line civilian areas, apart from what happened at Dokuchaevsk, this is one of a series of photos of the damage done to houses and apartments in Kuibishevsky district, I think about 15 properties were hit last night, and the lists of damage, a daily accurance last year until end of August, reappear.
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 36 5cbcac1f8e0b
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    Post  higurashihougi Sat May 28, 2016 11:47 am

    It is said that there are HIV, tuberculosis and hepatitis C patients inside Maidan Army. People have just identified 500 cases of TB, 400 cases of C, and 120 cases of HIV.

    http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3688209-v-armyui-pryzvaly-soldat-s-tuberkulezom-y-spydom

    BTW do you think there is some case of mental retardation and schizophrenia inside the leadership of Maidan Armed Forces ? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes
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    Post  Khepesh Sat May 28, 2016 12:15 pm

    Oh not some cases, all, from Poroshenko all the way down to the most junior officer.
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    Post  Khepesh Sat May 28, 2016 12:44 pm

    Further on the repurcussions of Peskov's statement. Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, a hardline conservative, has condemned what Peskov said and has made an attack on it being due to "Our comrade leaders bargaining with the West to their own selfish interests". He also says that war is better than this, and he means, in his view, a sort of surrender due to financial reasons, and that those who have money, property, and family abroad should be thrown out of power. He also makes an epic rant about power, $, corruption etc, saying,

    "This is an abomination to the Lord, let the most merciless judgement of God be upon them, their children and all who are dear to them, and I will pray for this judgement".

    Chaplin is probably not well known outside of Russia, if at all, and IMO, is a loony, not least because he wants "creationism" taught in schools. But this is a very hardline attack essentially on Putin, tho of course he aims it only by name at Peskov and "our comrade leaders".

    To me, such as Chaplin should be an exhibit in a zoo, where perhaps he can meditate on the variety of creatures and how evolution works, that the humble chicken is a close relative of the mighty T-Rex and directly descended from the famous "raptors". Anyway, I only mention his bizarre rant because he has a voice, and not insignificant numbers of people listen to him, and that he has made such a vitriolic attack really on Putin, has some significance, and that is why the story has appeared. I do not doubt that "Visarion" has an opinion, but nobody except his groupies in Siberia listen to him, so he is not news, Chaplin is, unfortunately. http://www.novorosinform.org/news/53715
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    Post  franco Sat May 28, 2016 1:12 pm

    People in the West are always surprised when they are told that the major opposition to Putin in Russia is not pro-Western groups but the Communist and far right groups.
    ExBeobachter1987
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sat May 28, 2016 2:31 pm

    franco wrote:People in the West are always surprised when they are told that the major opposition to Putin in Russia is not pro-Western groups but the Communist and far right groups.

    It does not fit the narrative and creates the issue that Putin's successor from the opposition is not going to be more pro-Western.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 29, 2016 8:48 am

    Oh boy..........
    Poroshenko appoints former NATO chief Rasmussen ‘non-staff adviser’
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun May 29, 2016 10:44 am

    Jesus what a joke of a country, oh well...
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    Post  higurashihougi Sun May 29, 2016 12:58 pm

    Still harboring the "join NATO" dream, Porkie ?

    https://www.rt.com/news/344653-nato-rasmussen-poroshenko-adviser/

    A former NATO Secretary General has been chosen as a new “non-staff” adviser to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, according to a decree bearing his signature. However, the document implies that the ex-chief is yet to agree to the appointment.

    “Appoint Anders Fogh Rasmussen as adviser to the President of Ukraine outside the official staff (subject to his consent),” says the decree also published on the Ukrainian president’s official website.
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sun May 29, 2016 2:06 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Jesus what a joke of  a country, oh well...

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun May 29, 2016 2:25 pm

    Saw that, had a tear of joy.

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    Post  OminousSpudd Sun May 29, 2016 8:36 pm

    I can't seem to reach the pitch those guys can when they scream "Slava Ukraine". They must truly be Hitler's chosen ones.
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    Post  Khepesh Sun May 29, 2016 9:57 pm

    At the time of this post, it is worth looking at Militarymaps.......

    http://militarymaps.info
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    Post  auslander Sun May 29, 2016 10:26 pm

    You think the push is on? I can't see squat, seems goggle is filtering to my AO.
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    Post  Khepesh Sun May 29, 2016 10:36 pm

    No, but I say that provisionally as I continue to maintain that these small attacks, particulary when tonight there are so many, at least to scale of worst of summer last year, could be a cover. As I've said before, it is like what the Arabs were doing before Yom Kipur War, and making constant small scale attacks to make it seem "normal" and nothing to get excited about, then bang, one or more of these small scale actions is a major assault. It's just a case of it will happen or will not happen, yet. I think ukrops are ready to go, and VSN is ready and waiting, just the date and time is missing.

    Edit: Other day I mentioned about possibility of a ukrops probing attack similar to what happened at Belaya Kamenka last summer, and one of these actions happening now is at Belaya Kamenka. Coincidence
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    Post  Ispan Sun May 29, 2016 11:04 pm

    Ok, for you that are Russians, can you give us a summary of what happened in the political sphere?

    This is what I understood.

    It's obvious Minsk is not working and never will, so Germany is just getting desperate by keeping calling for elections. They live in an alternate reality and cannot face the truth.

    Peskov statement sounds like a betrayal of Novorussia again. Seems the Kremlin has no clue on how to extricate itself from this mess and there are fifth columnists all too eager to betray Novorussia in exchange to lifting of sanctions.

    Unfortunately seems the sanctions will not be lifted this year as the US holds Europe by the throat.

    Berlin and Moscow would want to get over this but are unable or unwilling to pressure their side. Washington knows Kiev cannot win but still wants Russia to capitulate at the negotations table.

    Cassad is more cool about it, saying that regardless of what some in Moscow wish, Donbass will not return to Ukraine.

    Seems the stalemate will be prolonged this year in the hope the other side cracks first. Everybody is waiting for the next american president.

    Ukraine has kept an attrition war going on. Unfortunately, even if they suffer a hundred casualties daily, they can keep that fight for months, by getting back recovered wounded until they need to call up more recruits to fill the ranks. My hope is that this attrition is untenable in the long term and they decide to risk it all in one last attack rather than face certain defeat in the long run. They may replace troops but not equipment and ammunition.


    It may seem nothing happens, but all that artillery and gunfire must be hitting somebody in the receiving end, sporadically like today we get reports of Ukranian casualties. Today  it was reported that the hospitals are packing up and blood donors needed.

    I think everyday there are dozens of killed and wounded. I don't know if it reaches the threshold of an average  hundred daily casualties, wich is the predicted likely rate, but if there are no losses, why all the reports about the ukranian units being short of personnel, and that they are not releasing the soldiers of the fifht wave of mobilization?

    Donetsk briefing 29.05

    And finally, our intelligence received information that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had postponed, for September-October 2016, the demobilisation of the Ukrainian military called up during the fifth wave of partial mobilisation. The reason for that was the lack of those willing to continue the military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine on contract.
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    Post  Khepesh Sun May 29, 2016 11:15 pm

    That's more or less it, but as I mentioned in previous posts about Peskov's statement, no "merge". I still think that it could be an important factor if polls in US by late summer show possibility of Trump win, then this may push Poroshenko to war out of fear of being abandoned, while he probably feels that with Clinton he is secure.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon May 30, 2016 1:20 am

    Ripped out of Max's post 55 on the M1A vs T-90 thread as it is relevant here. Interesting for what the US military is saying about the war in Donbas, they certainly seem to believe a significant RuA presence or at least their weapons. Check out Max's post for the full context.

    Karber, the president of the Potomac Foundation, went on a fact-finding mission to Ukraine last year, and returned with the conclusion that the United States had long overemphasized precision artillery on the battlefield at the expense of mass fires. Since the 1980s, he said last October, at an Association for the United States Army event, the U.S. has given up its qualitative edge, mostly by getting rid of cluster munitions.

    Munitions have advanced incredibly since then. One of the most terrifying weapons that the Russians are using on the battlefield are thermobaric warheads, weapons that are composed almost entirely of fuel and burn longer and with more intensity than other types of munitions.

    “In a 3-minute period…a Russian fire strike wiped out two mechanized battalions [with] a combination of top-attack munitions and thermobaric warheads,” said Karber. “If you have not experienced or seen the effects of thermobaric warheads, start taking a hard look. They might soon be coming to a theater near you.”

    Karber also noted that Russian forces made heavy and integrated use of electronic warfare. It’s used to identify fire sources and command posts and to shut down voice and data communications. In the northern section, he said, “every single tactical radio [the Ukrainian forces] had was taken out by heavy Russian sector-wide EW.” Other EW efforts had taken down Ukrainian quadcopters. Another system was being used to mess with the electrical fuses on Ukrainian artillery shells, ”so when they hit, they’re duds,” he said.

    Karber also said the pro-Russian troops in Donbas were using an overlapping mobile radar as well as a new man-portable air defense that’s “integrated into their network and can’t be spoofed by [infrared] decoys” or flares.

    Combat Vehicles and Defenses

    If the war in Eastern Ukraine were a real-world test, the Russian T-90 tank passed with flying colors. The tank had seen action in Dagestan and Syria, but has been particularly decisive in Ukraine. The Ukrainians, Karber said, “have not been able to record one single kill on a T-90. They have the new French optics on them. The Russians actually designed them to take advantage of low light, foggy, winter conditions.”

    What makes the T-90 so tough? For starters, explosive reactive armor. When you fire a missile at the tank, its skin of metal plates and explosives reacts. The explosive charge clamps the plates together so the rocket can’t pierce the hull.

    But that’s only if the missile gets close enough. The latest thing in vehicle defense is active protection systems, or APS, which automatically spot incoming shells and target them with electronic jammers or just shoot them down. “It might use electronics to ‘confuse’ an incoming round, or it might use mass (outgoing bullets, rockets) to destroy the incoming round before it gets too close,” Army director for basic research Jeff Singleton told Defense One in an email.

    The T-90’s active protective system is the Shtora-1 countermeasures suite. “I’ve interviewed Ukrainian tank gunners,” said Karber. “They’ll say ‘I had my [anti-tank weapon] right on it, it got right up to it and then they had this miraculous shield. An invisible shield. Suddenly, my anti-tank missile just went up to the sky.’”
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Mon May 30, 2016 1:47 am

    Ispan wrote:Unfortunately seems the sanctions will not be lifted this year as the US holds Europe by the throat.

    Sanctions Against Russia MUST Stay In Place

    Ispan wrote:The reason for that was the lack of those willing to continue the military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine on contract.

    That is surprising. I thought the economic situation is so bad that serving in the military is attractive for enough Ukrainians.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon May 30, 2016 2:41 am

    Ispan wrote:

    Peskov statement sounds like a betrayal of Novorussia again. Seems the Kremlin has no clue on how to extricate itself from this mess and there are fifth columnists all too eager to betray Novorussia in exchange to lifting of sanctions.


    I find it funny that people can come up with all these conclusions from a 1 sentence from Peskov. He didn't say anything other than the typical stuff he usually says. I always find the guy kind of useless as he just says either "sound idea is that we all work together and solve this issue peacefully" or "Cannot comment". All he said is what was mentioned in first comment. It isn't a betrayal of anything, especially when Russia sent humanitarian aid not long after to Donetsk.

    He is simply calling for peaceful solution and giving autonomy to Donetsk and Lugansk while being part of Ukraine, as was always mentioned before. Doesn't mean that they will get that and simply Novorussia will exist as an entity by itself as mentioned as well here.

    I just find it funny how people can get almost a two page story regarding what Peskov said in 1 sentence. I suggest do not read too much into it.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon May 30, 2016 4:29 am

    Khepesh wrote:That's more or less it, but as I mentioned in previous posts about Peskov's statement, no "merge". I still think that it could be an important factor if polls in US by late summer show possibility of Trump win, then this may push Poroshenko to war out of fear of being abandoned, while he probably feels that with Clinton he is secure.

    You cant seriously be naive enough to think US-Russia relations will be restored with a Trump presidency? 2 things you need to know about Trump-Hillary presidential election:

    1.) Hillary attended Trumps wedding to win favors.

    http://nypost.com/2016/01/12/the-clintons-didnt-give-trump-a-wedding-gift/

    2.) Trump donated $100,000 towards the Clinton foundation:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/donald-trump-donations-democrats-hillary-clinton-119071
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    Post  eehnie Mon May 30, 2016 6:04 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:That's more or less it, but as I mentioned in previous posts about Peskov's statement, no "merge". I still think that it could be an important factor if polls in US by late summer show possibility of Trump win, then this may push Poroshenko to war out of fear of being abandoned, while he probably feels that with Clinton he is secure.

    You cant seriously be naive enough to think US-Russia relations will be restored with a Trump presidency? 2 things you need to know about Trump-Hillary presidential election:

    1.) Hillary attended Trumps wedding to win favors.

    http://nypost.com/2016/01/12/the-clintons-didnt-give-trump-a-wedding-gift/

    2.) Trump donated $100,000 towards the Clinton foundation:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/donald-trump-donations-democrats-hillary-clinton-119071

    Very right. Also another two things:

    1.) Hillary Clinto is not silly enough to send her guys to die in wars.

    2.) Donald Trum is silly enough to send his guys to die in wars. It depends of his mode.
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    Post  Guest Mon May 30, 2016 8:00 am

    eehnie wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:That's more or less it, but as I mentioned in previous posts about Peskov's statement, no "merge". I still think that it could be an important factor if polls in US by late summer show possibility of Trump win, then this may push Poroshenko to war out of fear of being abandoned, while he probably feels that with Clinton he is secure.

    You cant seriously be naive enough to think US-Russia relations will be restored with a Trump presidency? 2 things you need to know about Trump-Hillary presidential election:

    1.) Hillary attended Trumps wedding to win favors.

    http://nypost.com/2016/01/12/the-clintons-didnt-give-trump-a-wedding-gift/

    2.) Trump donated $100,000 towards the Clinton foundation:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/donald-trump-donations-democrats-hillary-clinton-119071

    Very right. Also another two things:

    1.) Hillary Clinto is not silly enough to send her guys to die in wars.

    2.) Donald Trum is silly enough to send his guys to die in wars. It depends of his mode.

    1) Incorrect

    2) Partial truth
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    Post  Godric Mon May 30, 2016 9:13 am

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Ispan wrote:Unfortunately seems the sanctions will not be lifted this year as the US holds Europe by the throat.

    Sanctions Against Russia MUST Stay In Place

    Ispan wrote:The reason for that was the lack of those willing to continue the military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine on contract.

    That is surprising. I thought the economic situation is so bad that serving in the military is attractive for enough Ukrainians.

    I wouldn't guarantee it ... lots of voices of discontent in Italy, France, Spain, Portugal among other countries .... Merkel is getting above her own station many powerful voices in Germany want the sanctions lifted

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