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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

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    Post  Guest Tue May 03, 2016 2:03 am

    KiloGolf wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:Happy Easter everyone!!! love

    Christos Anesti pirat

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 26 TrdEfaY

    Vaistinu Very Happy
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian Tue May 03, 2016 2:05 am

    Khepesh wrote:http://tribunal-today.ru
    A synopsis of all the atrocities comitted by Kiev and it's supporters, in chronological order from Odessa to the present day. Information on victims, killed or wounded that is known, and information on damage to houses and infrastructure. A list by region, with photos if available and biographic information, of all regime members and banderas wanted in connection with all these crimes. Those already eliminated have their photo marked as such. Just as nazis were hunted down after the war, and those still alive even in their 90s being hunted, so it will be with Kiev junta, banderas and those who have aided them. Zakharchenko has already stated that DNR will have death penalty.

    I am so pleased to see that there has been an effort to document all these war criminals.

    Most of them probably don't worry about the consequences of the crimes they committed at this moment. They may think they are safe under the present regime in Kiev.

    Well, maybe for the time being. But circumstances change over time and they may not be safe tomorrow, next week, next month, next year or in 10 years.

    Their time will come one way or the other. Either in or out of Ukraine, these people will be tracked, captured, eliminated, assassinated, tried, jailed or hanged by lamp-posts.
    Justice can come in different ways, they may be killed in battle, captured in a battle and brought in front of a tribunal, assassinated by family members of their victims, etc. etc.

    Those who will evade justice will always have to sleep with an eye open for the rest of their miserable lives.

    I would like to remind everybody who is reading this post about the fate of the Three Turkish leaders who ordered the Genocide of Armenians a century ago: Enver Pasha, Talaat Pasha and Jamal Pasha.

    All three of them were slain by vengeful Armenians:
    - Talaat Pasha in Berlin 1921
    - Jemal Pasha in Tbilissi 1922
    - Enver Pasha in Tajikistan 1922

    Oh, and Happy Orthodox Christmas
    Khristos Vayskres
    Christ has Risen
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Tue May 03, 2016 5:00 am

    It never hurts to point out what to some may be obvious. On the atrocity report, click on the small Russian flag below the 'sight search' box in the left upper corner and various additional languages drop down. Click on your choice of Russian, English, German or French. Nice touch to the sight.
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    Post  OminousSpudd Tue May 03, 2016 9:04 am

    That list has made me very happy, justice will be served one day. (I'm sure the FSB have their own very detailed personal list)

    Christos Anesti indeed.
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue May 03, 2016 9:08 am

    Correct me if I am wrong, but I heard that Odessa people are secretly killing the facist muderers. Most of the culprits have been punished by the people, several of them are still alive but in quite bad condition due to drug addiction.

    Can anybody confirmed it ?
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 04, 2016 1:36 am

    Just watched the new documentary on MH17 from the BBC tonight. The Russians did it.
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    Post  sepheronx Wed May 04, 2016 1:36 am

    JohninMK wrote:Just watched the new documentary on MH17 from the BBC tonight. The Russians did it.

    Of course. Did you expect anything else?
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed May 04, 2016 1:44 am

    JohninMK wrote:Just watched the new documentary on MH17 from the BBC tonight. The Russians did it.

    Dude why no spoiler warning? lol1
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    Post  JohninMK Wed May 04, 2016 11:41 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Just watched the new documentary on MH17 from the BBC tonight. The Russians did it.

    Dude why no spoiler warning? lol1
    Very Happy

    In a way it really needs to be watched. Just to see how top class propagandists work their magic in the modern age. But so far is does not seem to have been put up on the Tube.
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    Post  TheGeorgian Wed May 04, 2016 1:10 pm

    Khepesh wrote:http://tribunal-today.ru
    A synopsis of all the atrocities comitted by Kiev and it's supporters, in chronological order from Odessa to the present day. Information on victims, killed or wounded that is known, and information on damage to houses and infrastructure. A list by region, with photos if available and biographic information, of all regime members and banderas wanted in connection with all these crimes. Those already eliminated have their photo marked as such. Just as nazis were hunted down after the war, and those still alive even in their 90s being hunted, so it will be with Kiev junta, banderas and those who have aided them. Zakharchenko has already stated that DNR will have death penalty.


    How can it be on this day in particular that any post is allowed that, using a contorted and twisted semantics that fools nobody, supports those guilty of Odessa massacre? This is not any rationaly articulated difference of opinion that any forum needs, it is simply trolling designed to infuriate the overwhelming majority of members. It is perfectly valid to argue, no matter how strongly, about whether VSN should take strong action now, or not, for that is normal difference of opinion, but these provocative one liners are not debate of any form and contribute nothing.

    Haven't read the forum rules huh ? ^^

    Anyway. That site is accusing over 46.000 members of the UA of having committed war crimes. That's nuts and I'm talking about such a general proposal. If you want to be taken seriously, you charge single individuals with what hard evidence and facts ( like in those videos ) you have on hand and not because someone has a strange nose or his ideology and random facebook posts "seem" to be evil or suited for your personal PR agenda. I get that this will hurt some people's feelings here and spark some fake emotions, but I'm all about law and legal justice doesn't work that way. Neither is murdering someone out of random vigilantism anything appreciated by anyone but some hotheads. That will get nobody anywhere. There's a war. In war there is no such thing as "illegal killing" of a soldier during a fight. He dies in combat and that's that. But randomly accusing thousands and hanging them out for being murdered anywhere, anytime in peace time or conflict is a whole different animal.
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    Post  Godric Wed May 04, 2016 5:23 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Just watched the new documentary on MH17 from the BBC tonight. The Russians did it.

    i didn't watch it ... when it comes to propaganda the BBC are hard to beat ... i get angry watching that channel
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    Post  Ispan Wed May 04, 2016 6:58 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:

    Anyway. That site is accusing over 46.000 members of the UA of having committed war crimes. That's nuts and I'm talking about such a general proposal

    No you are the one that is nuts and trolling. If judged according to Ukranian law and consitution, in the unlikely event law and order are restored in Ukraine, all participants in the so called "Anti Terrorist Operation" are criminals, as no war or state of emergency has been declared, and constitution explicitly forbids the use of the army against the population.

    According to the Geneva conventions, the Ukranian troops are guilty of war crimes. Every trooper is guilty bu association. NatGuard units are illegal armed combatants and would be liable to prosecution as members of criminal organization, like it happened with the Waffen SS.



    . If you want to be taken seriously, you charge single individuals with what hard evidence and facts

    You simply put them against a wall and shoot them, like it was done in the Spanish Civil War and the Russian Civil War and it was done with the Banderites and Vlasov turncoats. Take no prisoners. Make exception for the conscripts, in order to get enemy troops to surrender, but it is the firing squad for every willing participant and all officers above the rank of captain.


    The Novorussians need get serious and start retaliating. Show no quarter to Western Ukranian troops, as they are foreign invaders and all of them are brainwashed. Execute as traitors the Russian speakers that are Ukrainian nationalists. Clean the rearguard of traitors. If need it be, start with a terrorism offensive in Ukraine controlled territory. Make Ukranian civilians pay for the victims of Donbass, make the people of Lvov suffer.

    When somebody is trying to exterminate you, you don't win by being better than them, you win by being ruthless and killing him before he does it. If ever the junta falls and the whole of Ukraine is liberated, then this time the job needs to be finished and all the Ukranian nationalists should be deported to Siberia. They want a war of annhilation, give them one!

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    Post  Khepesh Wed May 04, 2016 8:25 pm

    Zakharchenko said this to Odessites today.

    "Today, I think an anti-bandera revolution in Odessa can flare up for reasons that we that we cannot predict. But what if you win? how quickly can you organize yourselves in Odessa? can you hold out until help arrives? This is a question more for you, not me."

    He further said,

    "I have no doubt that the entire Russian world will come to the aid of Odessa as they came to the aid of Donbass. But Odessa has to make their own choice to take the first step"


    Unlike the cynical words of President Bush senior to the people of Basra in 1991, seeming to promise them help if they rose against Saddam, which then cost countless of lives in vain, Zakharchenko will not say this to Odessa unless he knows it will be backed up by action.

    Edit: This is simply supposition, but if the situation arises in Odessa that Kiev is again killing people, whether there is an uprising or any other reason, it can be surmised, without direct evidence of course, that this will not be allowed to happen and that Zakharchenko's words are a strong warning that action will be taken. It is a long way from Donetsk to Odessa and ATO forces first need to be defeated, Mariupol and Melitipol taken, strong flank protection to cover any counter offensive from direction of Zaporozhye will be needed, and this, unless ukrops have suffered a total collapse, which is quite possible, will be difficult, and unlikely except if ukrops do collapse. But an attack out of Crimea and across the Dnepr at Kherson to prevent what could be a huge massacre at Odessa, is a possibility. Kiev clearly thinks so as the large numbers of forces now at the border have only one function, defence. They cannot ultimately resist what will of course be a Russian rescue mission to Odessa, but they will attempt to hold it up as long as possible in the hope of some peace plan putting a stop to hostilities before the Dnepr is crossed. I predict if the situation becomes so bad that an advance to Odessa becomes absolutely essential, once started it will not be stopped by any amount of shouting from the West. Zakharchenko is sometimes accused of running off at the mouth, but he is giving clear messages to Kiev.


    Last edited by Khepesh on Wed May 04, 2016 9:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Khepesh Wed May 04, 2016 9:27 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Haven't read the forum rules huh ? ^^

    Anyway. That site is accusing over 46.000 members of the UA of having committed war crimes. That's nuts and I'm talking about such a general proposal. If you want to be taken seriously, you charge single individuals with what hard evidence and facts ( like in those videos ) you have on hand and not because someone has a strange nose or his ideology and random facebook posts "seem" to be evil or suited for your personal PR agenda. I get that this will hurt some people's feelings here and spark some fake emotions, but I'm all about law and legal justice doesn't work that way. Neither is murdering someone out of random vigilantism anything appreciated by anyone but some hotheads. That will get nobody anywhere. There's a war. In war there is no such thing as "illegal killing" of a soldier during a fight. He dies in combat and that's that. But randomly accusing thousands and hanging them out for being murdered anywhere, anytime in peace time or conflict is a whole different animal.

    Perhaps you should reflect on the nature of the post and the troll you are backing up, and on what happened at Odessa, and then a few days later at Mariupol, and on all the deaths of thousands of Donbass civilians. But, hey, it's all just "fake emotions", isn't it....

    Today Zakharchenko has said that if the people of Odessa rise, then the Russian world, and he means VSN, and what backs it up, will roll to Odessa, perhaps this is rather too strong for you, perhaps you should shout at him for "warmongering". If you have not gotten it into your head that I want to see VSN tanks on Marriinsky lawn, then be under no illusions about my position, and that while tanks in Kiev is very unlikely, it will be in Odessa, and then all the nay sayers about Novorossiya will eat their words.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Wed May 04, 2016 11:33 pm

    How exactly can the pro-Russian Odessans take the first step when they are completely unarmed and the streets of Odessa are roaming with armed volunteer battalion members and ultra nationalists? Do you want them to commit a suicide? They will massacre anyone who even expresses pro-Russian feelings as happened two years ago.

    Places like Odessa and Kharkov won't start a rebellion on their own. Things are past that point. They need an outside assistance.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Thu May 05, 2016 1:13 am

    There was a small window of opportunity in the spring of 2014 for armed resistance in Kharkov and Odessa. I remember that thousands of people in Kharkov took part of pro-Russian marches back then. But they did not go further. They did not arm themselves. They did not organize militias. And they were later crushed by the banderites who killed/imprisoned everyone who took part of those rallies.

    The small window of opportunity was there, but they never used it.
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    Post  Regular Thu May 05, 2016 10:18 am

    Khepesh wrote:
    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Haven't read the forum rules huh ? ^^

    Anyway. That site is accusing over 46.000 members of the UA of having committed war crimes. That's nuts and I'm talking about such a general proposal. If you want to be taken seriously, you charge single individuals with what hard evidence and facts ( like in those videos ) you have on hand and not because someone has a strange nose or his ideology and random facebook posts "seem" to be evil or suited for your personal PR agenda. I get that this will hurt some people's feelings here and spark some fake emotions, but I'm all about law and legal justice doesn't work that way. Neither is murdering someone out of random vigilantism anything appreciated by anyone but some hotheads. That will get nobody anywhere. There's a war. In war there is no such thing as "illegal killing" of a soldier during a fight. He dies in combat and that's that. But randomly accusing thousands and hanging them out for being murdered anywhere, anytime in peace time or conflict is a whole different animal.

    Perhaps you should reflect on the nature of the post and the troll you are backing up, and on what happened at Odessa, and then a few days later at Mariupol, and on all the deaths of thousands of Donbass civilians. But, hey, it's all just "fake emotions", isn't it....

    Today Zakharchenko has said that if the people of Odessa rise, then the Russian world, and he means VSN, and what backs it up, will roll to Odessa, perhaps this is rather too strong for you, perhaps you should shout at him for "warmongering". If you have not gotten it into your head that I want to see VSN tanks on Marriinsky lawn, then be under no illusions about my position, and that while tanks in Kiev is very unlikely, it will be in Odessa, and then all the nay sayers about Novorossiya will eat their words.
    Russian world by VSN is same charade as Ukro world imposed by Ukr army. One extremity to answer another. Same shit but smells different. So called Russian world could be only noticed in Crimea where You can actually enjoy peace, order and prosperity. What I see in Novorosiya is that it has no future, only as subsidied buffer zone from Ukraine. If Odesa will change hands I believe Ukrainians will do everything to make life for odesites worse then in Donetsk. Odesites are also are all but Russian or even Ukrainian, they have their own identity, don't mind banderlogs strolling there they are minority as well as separatists there. Only thing is that Banderas are not controlled so they can depict Odesa as most patriotic city. Best would be to wait till Ukraine collapses and pick up juiciest pieces. I would rather see Odessa become part of RF than Novorusian buffer, at least no Ukrainian would have balls to shoot at its general direction:)
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    Post  TheGeorgian Thu May 05, 2016 10:25 am

    Ispan wrote:
    No you are the one that is nuts and trolling. If judged according to Ukranian law and consitution, in the unlikely event law and order are restored in Ukraine, all participants in the so called "Anti Terrorist Operation" are criminals, as no war or state of emergency has been declared, and constitution explicitly forbids the use of the army against the population.

    According to the Geneva conventions, the Ukranian troops are guilty of war crimes. Every trooper is guilty bu association. NatGuard units are illegal armed combatants and would be liable to prosecution as members of criminal organization, like it happened with the Waffen SS.

    Call me whatever you like but I'm just saying how it is not how I feel like. According to the Geneva conventions you charge who is actualy guilty of having committed a crime, not simply generalise and line up everyone involved in a military operation at a wall and especialy not murder them. If that was the case, all militaries of all post-WW2 conflicts would have been wiped out by now. What you're proposing goes against anything that has remotely to do with any convention. Against crime I am. That goes both ways, also I doubt the seps haven't committed a number of atrocities as well.

    You simply put them against a wall and shoot them, like it was done in the Spanish Civil War and the Russian Civil War and it was done with the Banderites and Vlasov turncoats. Take no prisoners. Make exception for the conscripts, in order to get enemy troops to surrender, but  it is the firing squad for every willing participant and all officers above the rank of captain.

    That is no less savagary then what you're accusing the UA of and those times are long gone. It is Ukraine. Another country, another people. You expect the Ukrainian people and government to hurr durr accept Russian incursion and live happily with the fact they they've been stripped off Crimea with it's oil reserves and now fight a staged Russian sesession in the eastern part of their country.

    When somebody is trying to exterminate you, you don't win by being better than them, you win by being ruthless and killing him before he does it.

    When somebody is actualy trying to exterminate you, then you have all rights to defend yourself yes. Nobody has ever been denying that.

    If ever the junta falls and the whole of Ukraine is liberated, then this time the job needs to be finished and all the Ukranian nationalists should be deported to Siberia. They want a war of annhilation, give them one!

    Oh jeez, I see now, where this is going. GG good luck with that man .... ^^

    Khepesh wrote:
    Perhaps you should reflect on the nature of the post and the troll you are backing up, and on what happened at Odessa, and then a few days later at Mariupol, and on all the deaths of thousands of Donbass civilians. But, hey, it's all just "fake emotions", isn't it....

    I'm not backing up anyone's post I'm just giving my 1-2 words about it and I am supporting investigation against human rights violations in Ukraine and there are people who capture those and put them online in very well researched and documented videos. But what's absurd, is absurd and I gotta point it out.

    Today Zakharchenko has said that if the people of Odessa rise, then the Russian world, and he means VSN, and what backs it up, will roll to Odessa, perhaps this is rather too strong for you, perhaps you should shout at him for "warmongering". If you have not gotten it into your head that I want to see VSN tanks on Marriinsky lawn, then be under no illusions about my position, and that while tanks in Kiev is very unlikely, it will be in Odessa, and then all the nay sayers about Novorossiya will eat their words.

    Well, if you say so. I just got my doubts about everyone else just sitting by idly and watching how you roll into the rest of Ukraine, but Okay ^^
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    Post  Regular Thu May 05, 2016 11:12 am

    Georgian wrote:Well, if you say so. I just got my doubts about everyone else just sitting by idly and watching how you roll into the rest of Ukraine, but Okay ^^
    Most of Ukrainians are passive bunch no matter what side they support. Loads of people will pack their bag before Russian WORLD even comes to them. And yeah same can be said about Ukro world. Lol slavyansk
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    Post  Khepesh Thu May 05, 2016 12:16 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:

    I'm not backing up anyone's post I'm just giving my 1-2 words about it and I am supporting investigation against human rights violations in Ukraine and there are people who capture those and put them online in very well researched and documented videos. But what's absurd, is absurd and I gotta point it out.

    You mean videos like this from Kharkov Partizans with comprehensive details of some of those from Kharkov who took part in Odessa massacre, and this video, and others like it, are used on "Tribunal". The site is not official, but it is the most comprehensive list of suspects that ordinary people can access. The main collators of information are of course MGB in DNR and LNR and FSB, but what they have will not be revealed until the guilty are captured. You seem not to like that site because it may encourage "vigilantism", but I would say that it does not. As the Kiev regime is illegal and a construct of enemies, I would say that every single member of Verkhovna Rada, every single police officer, every single member of UAF and of course every single member of all bandera organisations are potential suspects in crimes. This is not to say that all have comitted war crimes, and obviuosly most have not, or that all support their leaders, but if they do not like it, then they should desert. I do not believe that the lists on "Tribunal" are frivolous.

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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Thu May 05, 2016 12:51 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:How exactly can the pro-Russian Odessans take the first step when they are completely unarmed and the streets of Odessa are roaming with armed volunteer battalion members and ultra nationalists? Do you want them to commit a suicide? They will massacre anyone who even expresses pro-Russian feelings as happened two years ago.

    Places like Odessa and Kharkov won't start a rebellion on their own. Things are past that point. They need an outside assistance.

    Roman Alymov explained it well.

    Roman Alymov wrote:Well, let me note first Ukraine is not 45 mln, but less than 40 mln citizens now (with number of people actually living in Ukraine, not abroad, estimated to be something like 32 mln -but nobody know for sure). Massive drop in natural gas consumption of Ukraine suggest this estimations are not unrealistic.

    Second, this question ("is Ukraine headed towards civil war") is often debated on pro-Russian forums. Let's separate two thing  - pro-Russian uprising (actually already there for two years, but will return to it later) and "another civil war" in addition to pro-Rus uprising.  "Another civil war" is highly unlikely (except may be sporadic oligarch-driven conflicts between private armies over controlling few remaining profitable industrial assets) - as there is no real ideological conflict between parties, and all of them controlled by West. What is likely is refugee crisis, as economy going down.

    Re pro-Russian uprising -   Pro-Russians living on occupied territories (who know situation from inside) believe civil war away from Donbass frontline is now impossible (all pro-Russian organisations demolished by SBU and nationalists, people are arrested for social networks posts, all active members really ready to fight now left for Donbass army as it is much better, and way less risky, to fight enemy with tank or howitzer then with leaflets or handmade weapons. Pro-Russians from Kharkov, Odessa etc are deeply angered by Russia not interviening in 2014 and say something like "Now we will not go out  to the streets until we see Rus tank columns with our own eyes".

    So Ukraine is likely to stagnate, not explode as it is not pressure coker. Border is porous, every person feeling life is turning really bad for him could walk (if not having few dollars for bus ticket) to Russian border (or Poland border, if it is Western Ukraine) and get into much better situation then inside Ukraine - and if he can't, he is also not likely to be riot-worth.
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    Post  Khepesh Thu May 05, 2016 1:36 pm

    Regular wrote:
    Russian world by VSN is same charade as Ukro world imposed by Ukr army. One extremity to answer another. Same shit but smells different. So called Russian world could be only noticed in Crimea where You can actually enjoy peace, order and prosperity. What I see in Novorosiya is that it has no future, only as subsidied buffer zone from Ukraine. If Odesa will change hands I believe Ukrainians will do everything to make life for odesites worse then in Donetsk. Odesites are also are all but Russian or even Ukrainian, they have their own identity, don't mind banderlogs strolling there they are minority as well as separatists there. Only thing is that Banderas are not controlled so they can depict Odesa as most patriotic city. Best would be to wait till Ukraine collapses and pick up juiciest pieces. I would rather see Odessa become part of RF than Novorusian buffer, at least no Ukrainian would have balls to shoot at its general direction:)

    But it is not an issue of VSN unilateraly invading Ukraine, it is a a very specific issue about not letting a massacre occur in Odessa if they rise up. There is no equivalance here between VSN and UA and the only shit is that dropped by Kiev. Zakharchenko is only saying that IF there was an uprising in Odessa, then help will arrive. In such a situation the alternative to not marching to Odessa is to let a massacre occur on a scale potentially far greater than anything seen in Europe since WWII. The reality is that a rising will not occur in Odessa until VSN have taken Mariupol and are clearly heading towards the Dnepr, and after all, when the offensive/counter offensive comes, all bets are off as to what may happen, as Zakharchenko has said several times already. When Oddesites see that ATO has been defeated in the field, despite the known issues in Odessa, I will not discount there being an uprising, and it does not matter if most sit on their asses, as such events are always carried out by the active and determined minority.

    On the status of Novorossiya I should make my views a bit clearer. I do not see Novorossiya as ever becoming a nation state, it never was, and was only ever the name for an area of Russia. We do not know the eventual outcome and what will happen to Ukraine, or if there will be a Ukraine, and certainly not as it is technically now. I see Novorossiya, even if all Ukraine becomes part of Russia, which I doubt, as being the name for a federal district of Russia, like Siberia, with the current oblasts being Russian of course, but part of over-arching district called Novorossiya and with the flag, but below that of RF. This will recognise the history and that the region is not exactly the same as the rest of Russia, and I have never been so blind about realities as to suggest that a city such as Odessa, even tho Russia by foundation, is no different to say Tver or Vologda, as clearly it is different.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 26 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    Post  Regular Fri May 06, 2016 10:21 am

    Khepesh wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    Russian world by VSN is same charade as Ukro world imposed by Ukr army. One extremity to answer another. Same shit but smells different. So called Russian world could be only noticed in Crimea where You can actually enjoy peace, order and prosperity. What I see in Novorosiya is that it has no future, only as subsidied buffer zone from Ukraine. If Odesa will change hands I believe Ukrainians will do everything to make life for odesites worse then in Donetsk. Odesites are also are all but Russian or even Ukrainian, they have their own identity, don't mind banderlogs strolling there they are minority as well as separatists there. Only thing is that Banderas are not controlled so they can depict Odesa as most patriotic city. Best would be to wait till Ukraine collapses and pick up juiciest pieces. I would rather see Odessa become part of RF than Novorusian buffer, at least no Ukrainian would have balls to shoot at its general direction:)

    But it is not an issue of VSN unilateraly invading Ukraine, it is a a very specific issue about not letting a massacre occur in Odessa if they rise up. There is no equivalance here between VSN and UA and the only shit is that dropped by Kiev. Zakharchenko is only saying that IF there was an uprising in Odessa, then help will arrive. In such a situation the alternative to not marching to Odessa is to let a massacre occur on a scale potentially far greater than anything seen in Europe since WWII. The reality is that a rising will not occur in Odessa until VSN have taken Mariupol and are clearly heading towards the Dnepr, and after all, when the offensive/counter offensive comes, all bets are off as to what may happen, as Zakharchenko has said several times already. When Oddesites see that ATO has been defeated in the field, despite the known issues in Odessa, I will not discount there being an uprising, and it does not matter if most sit on their asses, as such events are always carried out by the active and determined minority.

    On the status of Novorossiya I should make my views a bit clearer. I do not see Novorossiya as ever becoming a nation state, it never was, and was only ever the name for an area of Russia. We do not know the eventual outcome and what will happen to Ukraine, or if there will be a Ukraine, and certainly not as it is technically now. I see Novorossiya, even if all Ukraine becomes part of Russia, which I doubt, as being the name for a federal district of Russia, like Siberia, with the current oblasts being Russian of course, but part of over-arching district called Novorossiya and with the flag, but below that of RF. This will recognise the history and that the region is not exactly the same as the rest of Russia, and I  have never been so blind about realities as to suggest that a city such as Odessa, even tho Russia by foundation, is no different to say Tver or Vologda, as clearly it is different.
    Thanks for the post. Made things clear.
    Normal people are very tired of war from both sides. To uprise against Ukrainian authority in Odessa would be impossible as there are plenty of muscle there, like local hooligans nazi wannabes who suddenly felt that Ukrainian statehood no matter how perverted is their life goal. Not to mention real nazis from NatGuard who are most radicalised element. It would be very hard to even stage protest as Ukrainian government supports and calls it patriotic movements. No one wants to risk their property, family and lives to even express themselves. Not to mention that Ukraine showed what will happen to cities like Donetsk, they made it very clear. Ukraine is a crazy father holding baby with a knife next to his neck. Only fear is keeping some regions together.
    Best way would be to wait till Western Ukraine will hit the rock bottom and will captitulate. Cause Eastern Ukraine needs Western and other way around. All this war could be avoided if marionettes in Ukrainian government thought for themselves and what's best for their country. Yeah we have ethnic uprising, let's listen and negotiate. Federalisation would be OK even for most western Ukrainian parts, they could worship Bandera as much their want and eastern Ukrainians could have Lenin statues and so on. But now no one sane wants to be in this circus. But I see no future for Novorosiya too.
    Now I have no hope for DNR and LNR as their economy is very questionable. They were relying on mining and Ukraine would be the only customer who would buy coal from them. Do You remember when Ukrainians bought coal of separatists and separatists called it a gift for Ukrainian people when asked where these trains full of coal are going. War was in full swing back then. Novorosiya said they will gear their economy to have Russia as main market, but mining industry in Russia is pretty much alive and kicking so Russia wouldn't be a customer. Skilled workforce already left for Russia. Without Russia DNR and LNR would starve, but now people there can lead normal lives cause of never ending humanitarian convoys, subsidies, pensions and etc, but it won't last forever. What will happen next? They can't be relying on Russia all the time, what's the solution?
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 26 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    Post  eehnie Fri May 06, 2016 11:32 am

    There is a conversation about the possiblity of pro-Russian riots in some places.

    I do not see it easy. For a pro-Russian riot there is an ethnical and nationalist component that requires in my view strong amounts of Russian population. The results of the anti-Maidan riots of 2014 tend to support this idea.

    Analyzing a little the ethnic composition according to the 2001 census of the cities over 30000 inhabitants, there is a clear pattern. Today, pro-Russians control almost all the cities over 30000 inhabitants, that had over a 40% of ethnically Russian population (including Crimea and Sebastopol). And the military facts only served to reinforce these ethnically Russian populations. It is sure that these percentajes have been increased in the area (by the exit of some Ukranians and by the arrival of more Russian population from territory under Ukranian control). The alone cities overy 30000 inhabitants before the war with Russian populations under a 40% in 2001 that are under the control of the pro-Russian forces would be:

    33.7% Rovenki
    32.6% Debaltsevo
    28.8% Yasinovata
    27.3% Pervomaisk
    21.9% Ribnita (Transdnistria)

    All them inside the pro-Russian territory or are places of strong battles in the frontline, where the pro-Russian forces succeed.

    This result event ties the case of Transdnistria, where also the cities over 30000 inhabitants where the pro-Russian movements of 1990 succeeded were over 40% ethnically Russian at the time (and surely more now), except in the case of Ribnita, the smallest of them.

    In the other side, the Ukranian government controls almost all the cities of at least this size, where the percentaje of ethnically Russian population was under a 40% according to the 2001 census. And in this case the Ukranian domination only helps to reduce these percentages. It is necessary to remark that today, the areas under the rule of pro-Russian governments are more Russian than in 2001, while the areas under the rule of the Ukranian governments are less Russian than in 2001. Still, the cities with biggest ethnically Russian population in relative terms under Ukranian control would be:

    44.4% Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast, in the front line)
    43.7% Izmail (Odessa Oblast, isolated)

    I think these data are important to see where there is higher probability of pro-Russian riots and where there these riots can become successful. The case of Mariupol is key in the analysis. Looking at this case we can see how difficult is today the success of pro-Russian riots in territory controled by the Ukranian government, because we know that the pro-Russian forces tried but failed in Mariupol.

    To open a little more the view, these would be the cities of more than 30000 inhabitants before the war, that would have a percentage of Russian population higher than a 30% accordign to the data of the census of 2001, under Ukranian control:

    44.4% Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast)
    43.7% Izmail (Odessa Oblast)

    ??.?% Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast)
    39.8% Enerhodar (Zaporizhia Oblast)
    38.9% Melitopol (Zaporizhia Oblast)
    37.7% Konstantinivka (Donetsk Oblast)
    37.4% Berdyansk (Zaporizhia Oblast)
    37.3% Rubizhne (Luhansk Oblast)
    36.7% Selydove (Donetsk Oblast)
    36.6% Dzerzhynsk-Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast)
    33.7% Avdeevka (Donetsk Oblast)
    33.2% Kharkiv (Kharkiv Oblast)
    32.9% Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)
    31.5% Dimitrov (Donetsk Oblast)

    29.0% Odessa (Odessa Oblast)
    ...

    As I said in the begin it is not easy to see pro-Russian riots succeeding, every time is more difficult because the remaining cities under Ukranian control are less Russian than the places where the riots and the military operations succeed. Until now, the pro-Russian forces have done the easiest part for them. They succeed in the areas with the biggest Russian population in relative terms. The areas that remain under Ukranian control are the areas where the pro-Russian forces have not been able to become successful until now, and where the pro-Russian forces would need to revert previous failed bids. Every place that the pro-Russian forces can try to win since now, will be without doubt more difficult for them than what they did until now, and surely will require a more important military component every time to succeed. Every person here must be conscient of it.

    In my opinion, while there is not a succeding pro-Russian riot in Mariupol, there is low probability to see them succeeding in other places.


    Last edited by eehnie on Sun May 08, 2016 11:43 am; edited 3 times in total
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 26 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    Post  Khepesh Fri May 06, 2016 12:45 pm

    Regular wrote: What will happen next? They can't be relying on Russia all the time, what's the solution?
    Kiev launching a general offensive to encircle Donetsk will bring it all to an end, but exactly what the end will look like is unclear. Otherwise without any offensive, either a major coup in Kiev or coups in the cities of Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Odessa. These will be organised by the oligarchs in conjuction with UA and SBU officers who as yet do not have blood on their hands, and any coup could even be made to look like popular uprisings. I believe that if Kernes had not had a failure of nerve in 2014 and stopped a "rebellion" that I believe he started in Kharkov as he thought there would be Russian intervention, then likely Kiev would have collapsed in 2014. I think we may underestimate the power of Poroshenko's fellow oligarchs, and despite the seeming clipping of the wings of Kolmoisky last year, the oligarchs have the money and influence to end this situation by bringing down Poroshenko. Ukraine will not collapse without something to cause collapse, they will not just all slowly degenerate into medieval peasant like existance, it will be violent and bloody, and the only people capable of doing this from inside are the oligarchs and senior UA and SBU officers who will see that eventually it will have to happen. But, as I said many times already, Poroshenko and his supporters are not actually fools and imbeciles, and will have to eventually act in their own interests to stay in power, or even alive, and irrespective of the wishes of Washington. IMO, they have no realistic option other than to launch offensive, and that they must do so sooner rather than later. Even a smaller offensive such as attempting cutting off Telmanovo and Novoazovsk from Donetsk will be portrayed as victory and buy them time. But at this time the ordinary people of Ukraine will not rise until they see VSN heading their way.

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