Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan

Sujoy wrote:
Yes! Russia realizes
(a) it has limitations both military & financial; and
(b) it has commercial interest in both Afghanistan & Pakistan.

Consequently,  Russia has already started dialogue with the Taliban and is encouraging India to do the same. This will ensure Russia remains a minor player. Else, that space too will be occupied by China & Pakistan.

You're a sick person.

You think Russia is a third world failed state and so can't fight against Taliban? Russia already defeated mujahideens back in the 80s and can defeat Taliban whenever it wants.

Sujoy wrote:Correct. Russia is unlikely to get involved militarily in Afghanistan. Doing that will pit Russia directly against Pakistan. I suspect after investing billions of $$ in Pakistan's oil & gas industry Russia will try to avoid a direct conflict with Pakistan.

In the 80s when the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan they had to fight the Pakistan military.

Maybe Russia won't have a problem with China's growing presence in Afghanistan either.

Russia has no interest whatsoever in engaging in Afghanistan militarily. Like I said at most it will support some groups in the north like it did in the 90s, but it wants to avoid that. Any sort of overt Russian military engagement in Afghanistan will be deeply unpopular in Russia itself.

A neutral, or even pro-Chinese Afghanistan suits Russia just fine. As long as Russia's security interests are respected and there are no repressions against allied ethnic minorities that will cause Russia to lose face.

India too is a minor player. Unwillingness to cross the border in 1999 during the Kargil conflict and wresting Pakistan occupied Kashmir means India still doesn't have a direct border with Afghanistan. Moreover, India won't be able to match China financially in Afghanistan either.

In any case India failed long time ago, to protect the lives of Hindus & Sikhs living in Afghanistan.

Well exactly right, India does not share a border with it. What can it do, realistically? And what should it do? Even if India shared a border, Afghanistan is a place which will just suck up military resources with no payback or achievement or stability attained.

India's best strategy is to engage with the Taliban. It can work out with them the details of protecting the rights of the Hindus and Sikhs. They are tiny enough minorities that they should be passed over by any form of new social order without consequence, and no doubt the Taliban would be interested in legitimizing itself by securing ties with more countries in the wider region.

BTW Moscow has a Sikh community itself, only they're not from Punjab, but almost all from Afghanistan - they fled to Russia in the 90s.

On the whole I wouldn't worry so much about Chinese influence, or Pakistani influence. Afghanistan is an odd-ball nation riveted by its own contradictions which tends towards isolationism any time its independent. I doubt the Taliban have any desire for others' military basis, and they will likely respect other's interests as long as you leave them alone yourself.

China's Silk Road is interesting to me, because of Bible prophecy. in other words, how close it will come to Israel.

"Revelation 16:12 And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared."

Judging how eager Taliban were to negotiating with Russia right after they gained territory, tells me that both sides are interested in working with each other.

Taliban's plan is to rule and earn. They don't want to hamper that. Mostly because afterwards, there will probably be infighting between tribes anyway.

flamming_python wrote:Well exactly right, India does not share a border with it. What can it do, realistically? And what should it do? Even if India shared a border, Afghanistan is a place which will just suck up military resources with no payback or achievement or stability attained.

India's best strategy is to engage with the Taliban.

India has already held talks with the Taliban in Qatar and Moscow. Problem is there are multiple factions within the Taliban itself who could divert their militants towards India. Taliban itself is fragmented. Plus there are mercenaries too who were fighting the Western forces. These people fight for money and Pakistan could very well divert them towards India.

Already as the Vice President of Afghanistan stated yesterday, Pakistan has threatened the Afghan government with air strikes if it tries to seal the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1415710708541673475?s=20

In other words, Pakistan Air Force is now providing air support to Taliban.

Taliban fighters in Pakistan hospital following border clashes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCiwrHgNUUg

US intel assessments on Afghanistan warn of 'accelerating pace' of Taliban hold on country

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/16/politics/us-intel-kabul-taliban/index.html

...The Taliban advance is "accelerating at an accelerating pace," said a congressional source with knowledge of the intelligence, echoing concerns raised by other officials who have acknowledged the security situation is deteriorating even more rapidly than previous assessments have indicated. ...

That's right people, it's accelerating at an accelerating pace

They didn't even say that it's accelerating at an accelerated pace, it's full on accelerating at an accelerating pace

Looks like intelligence community left their speech skills in A-stan as well...

Daughter of Afghanistan’s ambassador in Pakistan kidnapped from Islamabad, tortured and then released.

https://twitter.com/MalaliBashir/status/1416349686575816706?s=20


Meanwhile, U.S has formed another QUAD to police Afghanistan. This Quad will include Afghanistan – Uzbekistan – Pakistan

https://www.state.gov/announcing-the-u-s-afghanistan-uzbekistan-pakistan-quad-regional-support-for-afghanistan-peace-process-and-post-settlement/

They could have just said exponentially increasing Or just, you know, speeding up. That would also have gotten the message across.

Sujoy wrote:
India has already held talks with the Taliban in Qatar and Moscow. Problem is there are multiple factions within the Taliban itself who could divert their militants towards India. Taliban itself is fragmented. Plus there are mercenaries too who were fighting the Western forces. These people fight for money and Pakistan could very well divert them towards India.

Already as the Vice President of Afghanistan stated yesterday, Pakistan has threatened the Afghan government with air strikes if it tries to seal the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1415710708541673475?s=20

In other words, Pakistan Air Force is now providing air support to Taliban.

I don't think that will be allowed to happen.

Any militants Pakistan breeds there to use against India, can also be used against Russia, or will find themselves there in due course. Moscow is all too aware that Pakistan is a plague.

But doing business with them also gives Moscow some leverage over them too.

Above all I don't think the Taliban or any native Afghan factions are interested in doing the international terrorism thing. To what benefit?

Sujoy wrote:Daughter of Afghanistan’s ambassador in Pakistan kidnapped from Islamabad, tortured and then released.

https://twitter.com/MalaliBashir/status/1416349686575816706?s=20


Meanwhile, U.S has formed another QUAD to police Afghanistan. This Quad will include Afghanistan – Uzbekistan – Pakistan

https://www.state.gov/announcing-the-u-s-afghanistan-uzbekistan-pakistan-quad-regional-support-for-afghanistan-peace-process-and-post-settlement/

Don't see how any US initiative can get off the ground, even with Turkey staying in the country. The US itself is leaving
While the days of the Afghan govt. are numbered, the Taliban is growing too dominant
Uzbekistan is too close to Russia
And Pakistan is too close to China

flamming_python wrote:
Any militants Pakistan breeds there to use against India, can also be used against Russia, or will find themselves there in due course.

Some Chechen terrorists trained in Pakistan's jihadi camps did land up in Russia, but I'm not sure if Pakistan deliberately sent them to Russia.

Pakistan can re direct jihadis/Islamic mercenaries from Afghanistan to India, however, I seriously doubt Pakistan wants to fight Russia even indirectly (through proxies). A Russian retaliation could be devastating. Even China might not be able to reign in a Russian backlash.

flamming_python wrote:Don't see how any US initiative can get off the ground, even with Turkey staying in the country. The US itself is leaving

Pakistan and Turkey are both U.S allies. That's how U.S initiatives will get off the ground. The only hiccup is China doesn't want Turkey to remain in Afghanistan.

Sujoy wrote:
Pakistan and Turkey are both U.S allies. That's how U.S initiatives will get off the ground. The only hiccup is China doesn't want Turkey to remain in Afghanistan.

China certainly doesn't want Pakistan to co-operate with the US either

As for Pakistan it's an Islamist state. It's concept is antithetical to both Russia's and India's

Like with the Saudis, you can do business with them but you don't want to get too close to them, nor to support them in expansion or any wars.

Sujoy wrote:Daughter of Afghanistan’s ambassador in Pakistan kidnapped from Islamabad, tortured and then released.

https://twitter.com/MalaliBashir/status/1416349686575816706?s=20


Meanwhile, U.S has formed another QUAD to police Afghanistan. This Quad will include Afghanistan – Uzbekistan – Pakistan

https://www.state.gov/announcing-the-u-s-afghanistan-uzbekistan-pakistan-quad-regional-support-for-afghanistan-peace-process-and-post-settlement/

Afghan Ambassador’s Daughter Abducted, Tortured In Islamabad
News Desk July 17, 2021


Afghan ambassador to Pakistan Najibullah Alikhel’s daughter was reportedly kidnapped and tortured in Islamabad before being released five hours later. According to reports, unidentified individuals abducted 26-year-old Silsila Alikhel from Blue Area in Islamabad. Five hours later, she was thrown on the road near Tehzeeb Bakery with her hands and feet tied.

A tissue paper was allegedly tied to her dupatta with the message, “It’s your turn next”.

The Afghan foreign ministry issued a statement about the incident, condemning it in strong words. The statement urged Pakistan government to improve security for diplomats and their families.


https://nayadaur.tv/2021/07/afghan-ambassadors-daughter-abducted-tortured-in-islamabad/#:~:text=Afghan%20ambassador%20to%20Pakistan%20Najibullah%20Alikhel%E2%80%99s%20daughter%20was,26-year-old%20Silsila%20Alikhel%20from%20Blue%20Area%20in%20Islamabad.

Map of the situation as of yesterday

Green - Taliban
Red - Government

Looks like almost all of the countryside has fallen to the Taliban, but the government still control most of the district centres and cities. None of them have yet fallen, and only Gazni and Kandahar are contested

But with that much Taliban domination it's going to be impossible for the government to keep reliable supply lines open. The cities are isolated, beseiged and will fall

The only thing that can save the situation for Kabul is if the Taliban splits. Which presumably outside actors are working on.

Taliban seek to cut off Afghan population centres: Top US general

Taliban fighters have encircled 17 provincial capitals, outcome of Afghanistan peace talks uncertain, Mark Milley says.

Taliban fighters have gained “strategic momentum” in Afghanistan and now control about half the countryside as they drive to cut off population centres from the Western-backed government in Kabul, the United States’s top military general said.

“This is going to be a test now, of the will and leadership of the Afghan people, the Afghan security forces and the government of Afghanistan,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley told reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/21/taliban-seek-to-cut-off-population-centres-top-us-general

Taliban were never terrorist. They have their way of life. They clearly want a pacific transition.

I don't like some of their traditions like marrying very young girls to old men. But here you can see that it is the US who terrorized Afghanistan for many years and the US systems which also give youg children to pedophiles as a gift is way more aweful than afghan or Iranian for that matter.

Taliban could just take all afghanistan and impose their law and kill everyone who doesn't respect. Yet they go in Russia and China to help them stabilize the country.

I hope they improve their social law however and don't get stuck in stone age. Their people haave the right to live better and with modern standards without going full US bullshit system.

Isos wrote:Taliban were never terrorist. They have their way of life. They clearly want a pacific transition.

I don't like some of their traditions like marrying very young girls to old men. But here you can see that it is the US who terrorized Afghanistan for many years and the US systems which also give youg children to pedophiles as a gift is way more aweful than afghan or Iranian for that matter.

Taliban could just take all afghanistan and impose their law and kill everyone who doesn't respect. Yet they go in Russia and China to help them stabilize the country.

I hope they improve their social law however and don't get stuck in stone age. Their people haave the right to live better and with modern standards without going full US bullshit system.

I'd support a pacific transition for the Taliban

Straight into the ocean!

But whatever. You're not going to beat them. So might as well join them eh

Aditya Raj Kaul
@AdityaRajKaul
#BREAKING: United Nations Security Council issues statement condemning escalating violence in Afghanistan. UNSC says they do not support restoration of Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. Condemns Taliban’s attack on United Nations compound in Herat, Afghanistan.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E74zAWTVUAQHomY?format=jpg&name=900x900




Ahmad Shuja Face with medical maskSyringe
@AhmadShuja
·
9h
This evening, Kabul is echoing with chants of Allahu Akbar, a rallying cry for national resistance against Talib designs to take over by terrorism, an act of reclamation from extremists the call that ignited Afghanistan's resistance against Soviet occupation.




Malali Bashir
@MalaliBashir
·
4h
Kabul streets flooded with people chanting slogans against Taliban and shouted الله اکبر - God is great. Herat did the same last night and Kabul and Nangarhar followed. #Afghanistan


https://twitter.com/i/status/1422670467538817025




Bashir Ahmad Gwakh
@bashirgwakh
·
7h
Nangarhar joins the rest of #Afghanistan in chants of #AllahuAkbar that started from Herat in support of Afghan troops against the Taliban.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1422624871436140552

Russia boosts arms supplies to Central Asia amid Afghan mayhem

MOSCOW/DUSHANBE: Russia has increased arms and military hardware supplies to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan amid fighting in Afghanistan, Interfax news agency quoted Russian military chief of staff Valery Gerasimov as saying on Thursday.

Gerasimov, who was in Tashkent to attend joint Uzbek-Russian military drills near the Afghan border, provided no details such as what arms were being supplied.

Russia is also carrying out drills in Tajikistan, another former Soviet republic bordering Afghanistan, this week. For the Uzbek exercise, Moscow said on Thurs­day it would even deploy four strategic bombers.
The security situation in Afghanistan has rapidly deteriorated since US-led forces began a withdrawal due to be completed by September, prompting a Taliban insurgent offensive that has made significant territorial gains.

Drills begin on border

The Russian military’s chief of staff arrived in Central Asia on Thursday as Russia held military drills in two ex-Soviet countries bordering Afghanistan where Kabul is struggling to contain a ferocious Taliban offensive.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1639075/russia-boosts-arms-supplies-to-central-asia-amid-afghan-mayhem

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1423540425793720327

Nimruz is practically under control of Talibans. Remains of government forces control only few government buildings. They will not last long as government forces could not bring reinforcement with helicopters as they have nowhere to land. With fall of Nimruz, Talibans will control whole border with Iran.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1423599321757409288

Zaranj city at Afghanistan-Iran border and capital of Nimruz province fall to Taliban.