Sujoy wrote:Correct. Russia is unlikely to get involved militarily in Afghanistan. Doing that will pit Russia directly against Pakistan. I suspect after investing billions of $$ in Pakistan's oil & gas industry Russia will try to avoid a direct conflict with Pakistan.
In the 80s when the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan they had to fight the Pakistan military.
Maybe Russia won't have a problem with China's growing presence in Afghanistan either.
Russia has no interest whatsoever in engaging in Afghanistan militarily. Like I said at most it will support some groups in the north like it did in the 90s, but it wants to avoid that. Any sort of overt Russian military engagement in Afghanistan will be deeply unpopular in Russia itself.
A neutral, or even pro-Chinese Afghanistan suits Russia just fine. As long as Russia's security interests are respected and there are no repressions against allied ethnic minorities that will cause Russia to lose face.
India too is a minor player. Unwillingness to cross the border in 1999 during the Kargil conflict and wresting Pakistan occupied Kashmir means India still doesn't have a direct border with Afghanistan. Moreover, India won't be able to match China financially in Afghanistan either.
In any case India failed long time ago, to protect the lives of Hindus & Sikhs living in Afghanistan.
Well exactly right, India does not share a border with it. What can it do, realistically? And what should it do? Even if India shared a border, Afghanistan is a place which will just suck up military resources with no payback or achievement or stability attained.
India's best strategy is to engage with the Taliban. It can work out with them the details of protecting the rights of the Hindus and Sikhs. They are tiny enough minorities that they should be passed over by any form of new social order without consequence, and no doubt the Taliban would be interested in legitimizing itself by securing ties with more countries in the wider region.
BTW Moscow has a Sikh community itself, only they're not from Punjab, but almost all from Afghanistan - they fled to Russia in the 90s.
On the whole I wouldn't worry so much about Chinese influence, or Pakistani influence. Afghanistan is an odd-ball nation riveted by its own contradictions which tends towards isolationism any time its independent. I doubt the Taliban have any desire for others' military basis, and they will likely respect other's interests as long as you leave them alone yourself.
Last edited by flamming_python on Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:55 pm; edited 1 time in total