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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues

    franco
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    Post  franco on Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:29 am

    Institute for Political and Military Analysis is a Moscow based Russian non-government Think Tank, who also does research for the Russian government, security services, military and business. Members are for the most part considered conservative by Western sources as opposed to liberal. My take on the article was the writer was complaining the Russian government and military were not putting enough defensive resources in the East. Most Westerns are oblivious to the fact that Putin's main opposition in Russia is not the western style liberals but Communists first followed closely by conservative Russian nationalists.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:16 am

    The USSR had a big contingent in Mongolia for many years against any Chinese aggressive move in the FE. Today, Russia can always send tank & air armies to Mongolia-it has a rail line to the Chinese border & a few big airfields- from there, it's not too far from Beijing.
    As long as Russia has nukes & stays together, she has nothing to fear from China.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:22 am

    Non-Debate: Russia is building China's Early Warning System, their won't be any war between them....any other aspect of this debate isn't even worth discussing.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:49 am

    franco wrote:Institute for Political and Military Analysis is a Moscow based Russian non-government Think Tank, who also does research for the Russian government, security services, military and business. Members are for the most part considered conservative by Western sources as opposed to liberal. My take on the article was the writer was complaining the Russian government and military were not putting enough defensive resources in the East. Most Westerns are oblivious to the fact that Putin's main opposition in Russia is not the western style liberals but Communists first followed closely by conservative Russian nationalists.

    Russia has way more threats at the Western border than east. They haven't ignored the east since they are building a new navy base in kurils and they are renovating old Soviet airforce bases. But their threat is mostly Japan and US in that area. And they are sufficient.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:24 am

    The whole point of vehicle families is to shorten the logistics train and increase both performance and mobility.

    China is not an enemy of Russia and even if they were how much ground could they even grab and hold for any period of time?

    The economic and political cost would be enormous... the west would wet their pants seeing two major rivals destroying each other in this way...

    And also the comments about MLRS range... range is not unimportant, but you need excellent C4IR to be useful.

    When Israel captured Russian/Soviet Grad rockets and decided to make their own copy they modified the design... they didn't increase the range, the modifications they made actually reduced its range... they fitted a heavier more powerful more effective warhead.

    No point having a 400km range unguided rocket system unless you have reliable recon assets that can continuously deliver you target information about targets out to that range.

    Most of the time I doubt the Americans could manage that... they would start hitting weddings and funerals etc etc.

    When supporting a ground force, unless the purpose is to allow your rocket batteries to operate 300km away from the unit they are supporting by hitting enemy forces within 100km of those forces, such a weapon range is a waste of rocket fuel and probably greatly reduces the warhead payload size... a shorter ranged version would have a much bigger much more effective warhead and would probably be more accurate too.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:57 am

    China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

    Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
    I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:15 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

    Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
    I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.

    Key Chinese targets would be hit so damn quickly by Russian systems, they may hit them about same time China hits them because Russia has more mature IADS structure to see within China as well. Since China is so heavily concentrated, the damage back would be severe.

    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:53 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

    Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

    Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

    NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:00 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

    Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

    Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

    NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).

    I am using an example. Not saying they would or ever think of it. But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great. Maybe I didn't make that clear in what I initially said. So I could just throw in any other small nation with Nukes into the mix.

    OK, so lets say South Africa in the 70's when they had Nukes. How bout that?
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    Post  Hole on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:54 am

    Poland is in greater danger to be invaded by Sweden then Russia is from China.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:41 pm

    But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great.
    a few years ago, to get Taiwan back, they were ready to lose all big cities East of Xian in a nuclear exchange with the US:
    https://books.google.com/books?id=GE-hBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA62&lpg=PA62&dq=lose+all+big+cities+East+of+Xian+Taiwan&source=bl&ots=Ag8K30PpuE&sig=ACfU3U0Et4S5A4VfegV7EG4xf19nOSzubw&hl=ru&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjOtdHAx5nlAhWJrZ4KHWHCA0sQ6AEwDHoECAkQAQ

    Chairman Mao, during/after his policies killed 50-70M, had no problem sacrificing 100M or more of his people in a nuclear war.
    NK can now kill a lot less than that number, but it will cease to exist regardless.

    For Russia & China, The Nicaraguan Canal will become what the Suez Canal was to Great Britain.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:12 am

    The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time... when South Korea and US and international forces were defeating North Korea and US bases were going to be put on the border with China... China wont accept that, they wouldn't then and wont now.

    That means the Chinese forces would be fighting side by side with the North Koreans against South Korea and the US and any other country the US suckered into joining in... but I can't see even the UK joining that clusterfuck.

    China isn't stupid, they know a major war does enormous damage even to the country that wins, so they will avoid it at all costs, but some times there wont be a choice.

    ie Taiwan or Hong Kong declares independence from China and US/UK starts building bases there... "to defend their democracy"... you know... the usual shit.

    But I don't think even the current occupant of the WH is that stupid.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:23 am

    The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time...
    China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.
    NK is a buffer state for Russia & China- even if SK kicks out every American soldier, it can mobilize her reserves (more than NK has) & is well armed, while Japan rearms & hosts many US bases.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:14 am

    China has satellites, drones & recon planes.

    And how many rockets will they allocate to each target... is it more than the number of incoming threats a TOR battery can handle?

    They are going to need a shit load of those rockets then and they are going to be expensive...

    China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.

    They certainly might try, but when they invaded Vietnam to teach them a lesson it really didn't go very well for the Chinese... they have some new shiny stuff, but they really have yet to prove themselves.

    Not going to suggest they are as bad as Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia has spent an enormous fortune on modern capable western weapons and western and eastern mercenaries to operate them... they probably have the best Pakistani fighter pilots there are... and why wouldn't you... nice new planes... probably a huge pay rate... but as we have seen it doesn't always work out like it does on paper... in theory the Houthis should have been wiped out easily by the combined forces of several countries with new shiny equipment, but those sandal wearing rebels are not doing bad at all.

    Sure they are probably getting support and advice at the very least, but they are the ones on the ground trading bullets and bombs and doing the hero stuff people like to think they can do but when push comes to shove... could they?

    I have never been fired at... I'd like to think I would be brave for the guys around me, but I don't know that... kinda hope I never find out of course... that is some serious shit that normal people try to avoid normally.

    SK doesn't want war... its economy and standard of living comes from commerce and peace... any serious conflict with the north and that all disappears and with the gloves off it can come down to who will put up with poor conditions longer and I would bet the NK could tolerate it longer... they have more experience of not getting the latest apple iphone the day it comes out.
    Odin of Ossetia
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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues - Page 9 Empty Massive Nuclear War Games to be Conducted by Russia in its Far North in October, 2019.

    Post  Odin of Ossetia on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:52 am





    Massive Nuclear War Games to be Conducted by Russia in its Far North in October, 2019.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-announces-massive-nuclear-war-games-arctic-week



    U.S. moving out of Syria and into the Far North?



    franco
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    Post  franco on Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:49 pm

    I think the operative word for this war game is annual.
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:46 am

    Of course every exercise Russia holds is sinister and threatening... even when planned years before, because of the timely events it coincides with at the time....

    NATO exercises on the other hand are peaceful and improve peace and democracy everywhere they are held.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:28 pm

    Russia is far away, and Cuba is near
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:07 pm

    Russia to take nuclear triad as close to US borders as possible
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:06 pm

    America will have the same ending in Afghanistan as in Vietnam
    Russia, China, Pakistan will have to appease a restless country
    http://www.ng.ru/world/2019-12-11/6_7749_afghanistan.html?print=Y
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:02 pm

    US activates in Central Asia
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2808096.html
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:53 am

    Extended meeting of the Board of the Ministry of Defense of Russia

    The Minister of Defence of Russia, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, made a report at a meeting of the Session.

    - The military-political situation this year was characterized by a further buildup of military force.

    - The US military budget in 2020 for the first time will reach nearly 750 billion US dollars. This is comparable to the total annual military budget of all countries of the world and exceeds the Russian one by 16 times.

    - The North Atlantic Alliance implements the US four by thirty anti-Russian initiative. It is expected that in thirty days 30 mechanized infantry battalions, 30 aviation squadrons and 30 warships will be ready for use. As of December 1, full completeness of the land component was achieved, as well as 76% for air component, and 93% for the sea component.

    - In our estimation, the full implementation of the concept of “four by thirty” is possible by 2022.

    - The readiness of carrier aircraft for the use of nuclear weapons is planned to be reduced from 10 days to 24 hours.

    - In the Baltic countries deployed American air defence radar to detect air targets. They allow to control our airspace to a depth of 450 km.

    - Compared to last year, near our borders, the intensity of air reconnaissance increased by 33%, and marine by 24%.

    - Every year, the NATO bloc in Europe holds up to 40 major exercises that have a clear anti-Russian focus. Compared to last year, near the borders of our borders, the intensity of aerial reconnaissance increased by 33 percent, and by 24 - marine.

    -  Pentagon tests conducted in August and December for medium-range missiles confirm the fact that the United States developed missile systems that were prohibited by the INF Treaty during its term. The next step will logically be the deployment of such missiles in Europe, in the East. Also, there is no certainty on the part of the United States on the fate of the START Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty.
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    Post  George1 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:28 am

    Improving the readiness of troops to carry out mission

    - Level of field, air and sea training has increased. In total, over 18,500 exercises and trainings of various levels were held in the Armed Forces during the year.

    - The task of increasing the flying and sailing time has been completed.

    - Two surprise combat readiness inspection were carried out with the participation of military districts, branches and arms of the Armed Forces.

    - The largest event in the training of troops was Tsentr-2019 strategic command-post exercise. It was attended by military contingents of seven foreign countries from the CSTO and SCO.

    - The Russian Navy conducted Ocean Shield joint exercise. The created groupping has demonstrated the ability to effectively fulfill the tasks of protecting our national interests in the waters of the Baltic and North Seas and in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

    - The interest of foreign countries in the International Army Games, which has become an important part of combat training, is growing every year. The Games competitions were held in ten countries with the participation of teams from 39 countries. For the first time in India, Uzbekistan and Mongolia.

    - To increase the level of combat training of the troops and the Games 82 training grounds were modernized during five years.

    - Conducted 42 exercises with foreign counterparts. The most significant of them were Joint Sea 2019 Russian-Chinese bilateral naval exercise and Indra Russian-Indian exercise.


    Performing tasks abroad

    - To ensure a military presence in strategically important areas, 48 strategic missile-carrier flights were carried out this year.

    - In July, joint patrols of Russian and Chinese strategic bombers in the Asia-Pacific region were first performed.

    - In October, the Tu-160 missile carriers made flights using airfields in South Africa.

    - The ships of the Russian Navy completed 111 trips to the Arctic zone, the Central and North Atlantic, the Caribbean, as well as to the pirate-dangerous areas of the Gulf of Aden.

    - Russian ships also took an active part in joint exercises in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.

    - Russian servicemen are the guarantor of peace in Syria.

    - Russian Aerospace Forces aviation currently makes an average of 2–3 sorties per day for reconnaissance and air support for the actions of the Syrian army in the liquidation of disparate terrorist formations. In 2015–2017, during an operation, our aviation performed an average of 80–90 sorties per day.

    - In total, we tested 359 modern weapons in Syria.

    - Military personnel of the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides conducted more than 2,000 humanitarian actions. 109,000 civilians received medical care.

    - The Syrian authorities, with the active participation of Russian military personnel, are implementing a large-scale program to restore peaceful life and return refugees. Since 2015, around 2,000,000 refugees and internally displaced persons have returned to their places of former residence.

    - Today, modern military and social infrastructure is deployed in places of deployment of the Russian force groupping in Syria.

    - This year, shelters for operational-tactical aviation were put into operation at the Hmeymim airbase.

    - The construction of a ship repair complex has been completed in Tartous.

    - Russian military facilities are reliably covered by an air defence system and electronic warfare systems. This year, they shot down 53 unmanned aerial vehicles and 27 missiles of MLRS terrorists.

    - Since 2015, Syrian air defence have repelled 83 air strikes by coalition forces led by the United States, Israel and terrorists. At the same time, they destroyed 217 cruise missiles, 38 guided bombs and 25 drones. Unlike the Patriot systems in Saudi Arabia, Syrian Air Defence systems bring down at least 72% of precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles in every massive strike.

    - At the same time, along with the modern Russian "Pantsirs" and "Buks", the Soviet S-75, S-125 and S-200, restored and modernized with the participation of Russian specialists, form the basis of Syria’s Air Defence.

    - This year, at the training ground of the 201st military base in Tajikistan, the S-300PS anti-aircraft missile battalion with Russian units took up an experimental combat alert duty. This system can be transferred in two years to the armed forces of Tajikistan after completion of training of their specialists.

    - In the field of military and technical cooperation, China, India, Egypt, Algeria and Vietnam remained our priority partners. We continued to strengthen our allied relations with the CSTO, CIS and SCO countries.

    - International Military and Technical Forum "ARMY-2019" was an important event in the development of international military and technical cooperation. In terms of its main indicators, it significantly surpassed last year's forum. The amount of the State contracts signed has exceeded one trillion rubles. In five years, the Forum has become the largest armament exhibition in the world. A record number of delegates – more than 1,000 from 111 countries and seven international organizations attended the annual Moscow Conference on International Security.
    franco
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    Post  franco on Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:33 pm

    Two informative analysis of Russian defensive system strengths:

    https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/

    First dated January 25th deals with Air Defense and the second dated January 29th focuses on Maritime Defense.
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    Post  Hole on Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:21 pm

    "In some respects Russian IADS are a sort of McGuffin plot vehicle. As long as time and munitions are spent on them, Russian critical objects are safe, and one way or another the IADS end up executing their mission – which is not to defend themselves but to defend that which is strategically significant for the success of operations in the TVD."

    The guy gets it. thumbsup

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