Su-35S: News

LMFS wrote:

franco wrote:So if 21 Su-30SM2's and 25 Yak-130's are costing 100 billion then 70 billion will not buy a lot of Su-35's. My guess would be about 24-30.

This is what Shoigu has said. IMO the 100 billion are unrelated to the new contract, but I don't speak Russian so I may be wrong:

“We have made a decision and will sign this year, in addition to the existing two state contracts worth over 100 billion rubles, under which 21 Su-30SM2 fighters and 25 Yak-130 combat training aircraft will be built,” the head of the military department said.

ult wrote:The thing is Su-35S costs almost the same as Su-30SM. In 2015 the contract was 60 billion rubles for 50 Su-35S. Since then the inflation was around 24%. So it could even be the same 48 planes as before. Do not forget that they talk about Su-30SM2 which are supposed to be comparable to Su-35S, but unlike those they have yet to begin their serial production, which would make Su-30SM2's more expensive. So if I had to bet I'd say 70 bln would get you at least 36 Su-35S.

I tend to agree. Since we don't know even remotely enough about the intricacies of military sourcing and price formation in Russian MIC, RUB2 billion per 4++ gen. fighter is a round number that should not be too wrong.

Shoigu would be referring to the total cost of the contracts and the incremental delivery for the current period. Also,
100 billion rubles is about 1.4 billion US dollars. If we divide this by 21+25 = 46 then we get 30 million dollars per aircraft.
But the unit cost of a Yak 130 is 15 million dollars and the SU-30SM2 cost under 40 million USD. So the cited program cost
does not apply to the 46 jets. It looks like the two contracts will deliver around 75 jets.

So the 100 billion ruble contracts are incremental. Canada was looking at buying 65 F-35s for well over $75 million each
so Russian prices are more sane.

Logic says that the order will be for 48-50 aircrafts as the previous two ones

kvs wrote:Shoigu would be referring to the total cost of the contracts and the incremental delivery for the current period.

Yes that is what I make of it... already running contracts and now an addition to them. So in essence he said nothing about the cost per airframe of the new contracts...

Canada was looking at buying 65 F-35s for well over $75 million each so Russian prices are more sane.

A bit more sane yes... what about $23 billion for 105 F-35 for Japan?  Russian fighters about 1 order of magnitude cheaper (and yes, I know the Japanese contract included engines and what not, but at such difference in prices it is irrelevant) Hats off to the LM salesmen 

A bit more sane yes... what about $23 billion for 105 F-35 for Japan? Russian fighters about 1 order of magnitude cheaper (and yes, I know the Japanese contract included engines and what not, but at such difference in prices it is irrelevant)

The su-35 comes with 2 engines...

Isos wrote:The su-35 comes with 2 engines...

... and still the whole plane costs like one engine of the F-35B, not kidding!

I cited the $75 million US price for the F-35 for Canada (assuming they buy now and not one of the expensive original lots)
because it does not include the post purchase maintenance. I do not know how much is paid for maintenance of Russian
jets over a 20-30 year period. All the big numbers being tossed around for the F-35 include the maintenance cost which
obfuscates the price.

7.2 billion of that 100 billion for the Su-30SM2's and Yak-130's is for maintenance on the Su-30SM's.

franco wrote:7.2 billion of that 100 billion for the Su-30SM2's and Yak-130's is for maintenance on the Su-30SM's.

That is incredibly cheap. Most of the cost of the F-35 jets is the maintenance on top of their 75 million dollar initial price per unit.

Su-35 fighters delivery schedule

In one of the video reports on the visit by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu to the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ - a branch of PJSC Sukhoi Company as a part of PJSC UAC of the State Corporation Rostec) big-eyed foreign bloggers saw this stand demonstrated to the Minister with the KnAAZ production plan for 2020-2024. The video was distributed by the press service of the governor and the government of the Khabarovsk Territory. A stand with the production plan of the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ - a branch of PJSC Sukhoi Company) for 2020-2024. Komsomolsk-on-Amur, 08/12/2020 (c) still from the video of the press service of the governor and the government of the Khabarovsk Territory (via Red Samovar @Strike_Flanker / twitter.com/Strike_Flanker)



If for the supply of Su-57 and Su-35S aircraft under the State Defense Order, this screenshot shows only data for 2020 (one Su-57 and ten Su-35S - as is known) and 2021 (two Su-57 and five Su-35S - the latter for the proposed new contract), then the data on the supply of the Su-35 through military-technical cooperation are clearly visible.

Apparently, two contracts are being implemented for the supply of the Su-35 for export - one KnAAZ is expected to deliver 22 Su-35 aircraft in 2020 and eight in 2021 (a total of 30 aircraft is clearly Egypt), and under another contract, as you can understand, it is planned to deliver 12 Su-35 aircraft in 2022, 14 aircraft in 2023 and six or eight in 2024. In total, according to the second contract, 32-34 Su-35 aircraft should be delivered in 2022-2024, it is most likely that Algeria is their customer .

Also, judging by the schedule, the production of 11 Su-35s for Indonesia is not expected, so, apparently, the Russian side considers the contract with this country inoperative.


Video:


https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4112139.html

Somebody with really good eyesight and Russian knowledge can decipher the titles and amounts? There is one row for the new contract implemented apparently on just 2 years, then another which says something like "production in advance", then "rebuild". I am aiming at knowing the amount of Su-35S for the new contract and from there actual unit prices for the plane

LMFS wrote:Somebody with really good eyesight and Russian knowledge can decipher the titles and amounts? There is one row for the new contract implemented apparently on just 2 years, then another which says something like "production in advance", then "rebuild". I am aiming at knowing the amount of Su-35S for the new contract and from there actual unit prices for the plane

3 in 2021, 3+4 in 2022, 10 in 2023, 8 in 2024. But the armament program is till 2027, so you wouldn't know the whole picture anyway. But they also said that they plan to talk about early deliveries (опережающие поставки) later that day.



They were also talking that out of 50 planes that were supposed to be improved (планируемых к доработке) they completed 40, 6 are currently at the plant and the have to do 4 more (взять из эксплуатации). I suppose they are talking about the first batch of Su-35S.

So 28 over the next 4 years for this batch...possibly, maybe...

Charly015 made very detailed numbers here:

https://charly015.blogspot.com/2020/08/el-su-35-el-su-57-y-el-descuido-del.html

franco wrote:So 28 over the next 4 years for this batch...possibly, maybe...

Is consistent with Charly015's amounts... that would be RUB2.5B per Su-35, knowing the contract is 70 billion...

According to google 70 billions rubles = 950 600 000 $.

Unit price will be 19 804 666$.


Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
9h
Alexey Nikolsky reports that the new Su-35S fighter 70 billion ruble contract for the MoD will be for 48 fighters to be delivered by 2024.

Isos wrote:According to google 70 billions rubles = 950 600 000 $.

Unit price will be 19 804 666$.


Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
9h
Alexey Nikolsky reports that the new Su-35S fighter 70 billion ruble contract for the MoD will be for 48 fighters to be delivered by 2024.

Who is Alexey Nikolsky?

franco wrote:

Who is Alexey Nikolsky?

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1300560945413005313

Well he is Alexey Nikolsky .

I Don't know. He is quoting an article of Vedomosti.ru which is in russian. I don't speak russian so I don't share it because I don't know what it says, just the tweet. Rob Lee is quite reliable as he shares sources and translate the interesting parts.

Wow that is less than RUB1.5B, less than $20M per plane... maybe that is the reason Shoigu was talking about a new policy of the MoD of buying larger series?

With those amounts ordered, the Su-27 could be finally removed from service, but I don't know if this is the plan, since they want to reopen air bases.

Vedomosti is a Russian business newspaper created by western interests and owned until recently by them. Part of the Moscow Times grouping.

Alexey Nikolsky is apparently a Russian who emigrated to LA and now writes occasional articles for the Moscow Times.

Rob Lee, who does link good information, is a US Marine presently studying or teaching at the UK War College.

That price is great but much less then the previous batch... that alone makes me dubious.

My rule of thumb is unless a senior Russian Defense official presents the info, it is conjecture.

franco wrote:Vedomosti is a Russian business newspaper created by western interests and owned until recently by them. Part of the Moscow Times grouping.

Alexey Nikolsky is apparently a Russian who emigrated to LA and now writes occasional articles for the Moscow Times.

Rob Lee, who does link good information, is a US Marine presently studying or teaching at the UK War College.

That price is great but much less then the previous batch... that alone makes me dubious.

My rule of thumb is unless a senior Russian Defense official presents the info, it is conjecture.  

Sure, Vedemosti has a dubious afiliation, but they have previously got good scoops too. In any case is unconfirmed information and would imply lower prices than the ones we had until now.