marcellogo wrote:It seems me that all the discussions about 2038 start from a colossal misjudgement/forgetfullness of the basics of modern naval warfare.
The basics of a Navy is it being able to go where you need it. Brown water ships cannot travel in rough waters which is very bad when most of our coast touches the Arctic.
Just compare the average quantity of weapons carried by a typical Green water Navy (to cut it short: YOUR'S and MINE's own) in theCold War era when compared to the others, Blue and Brown water alike.
The weapons are of little use if they cannot reach a target.
There is a reason because ours FREMM cost 30% more than a French one.
The French have 32 VLS, yours only have 16. Why would Italians cost 30% more? I never did understand why you would build a large ship and not put enough weapons on it.
The same reasons behind that fact that our and yours naval artillery and CIWS systems are orders of magnitude better than anything else in the world (and Thank to God, they were sold accordingly well).
Our navies, being green water ones really need them to just operate in their own environment, not "just in case".
Naval artillery will always have its place but the role for CIWS is becoming obsolete. Most of the navies have switched to missiles and soon the point defence weapon will be lasers.
A blue water ship can see enemy incoming from afar, a blue water ships is usually not alone but it is part of a fully fledged fleet almost always disposed in an optimal formation, a blue water ship in its environment could just be targeted by large and capable systems.
A blue water ship traveling with other blue water ships usually has a strong multi-layer defence. Brown water vessels would be easily picked off.
A green water navy has none of this luxuries, menaces pop ups all of a sudden and can be of any type, a pocket submarine, a sea skimming missile launched by a coastal defence system, explosive motor boats coming by a nearby island , even coastal artillery pieces or mine fields.
Even if part of a fleet, they would be engaged in choke points, so no way relying on a system carried on a nearby ships.
You don't think NATO has the capability to spot all of those little pop ups long before they have a chance to "pop up"? The last country who tried this was Iran and the US wiped them out in Op Praying Mantis. Missile boats are only effective if you maintain air superiority over them. If you are spending the money on fleets of fighters to keep that air dominance you might as well arm them with ASMs which makes the brown water boats redundant.
Only total suckers in this type of warfare could have developed the colossal fiasco that LCS were, relying on stealth and speed, two things almost useless in such an environment or better said in the tactical posture that green water is.
Which is another example of why brown water centric is a waste of money.
Green water ones needs an hundred of things more.
All the more reason not to waste money on them.