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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

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    Karl Haushofer

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Mon Nov 23, 2015 11:44 pm

    ultron wrote:I take it they don't care about implementing Minsk anymore?
    Only DPR/LPR do. Ukraine has never had to implement it.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:19 am

    Some snippets from Kiev.

    "Repair work can only be done on one line, the 220 [kilovolt] Kakhovka-Titan [power line]. As for the others, we insist that work cannot be done on them at this time until we fully clear these lines in terms of potential threats of more explosions and subversive attacks. We have information that such attacks are possible, regardless of the point of view of the Mejlis and Crimean Tatars and law enforcement officials," he said. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/306048.html

    "I propose to temporarily ban cargo transportation on the administrative border between Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea," he said at an extraordinary session of the Ukrainian government in Kyiv on Monday. Yatseniuk has suggested that the Economic Development and Trade Ministry prepare a draft Cabinet resolution containing a specific list of goods, work and services that can be supplied to Crimea. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/306037.html


    To put that into context, about $40M a month excluding electricity most of it into the just over the border in Ukraine economy, farmers etc.

    The supply of goods from mainland Ukraine to Crimea, from the beginning of 2015 until the launch of the blockade, amounted to $765 million, Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius said in Kyiv. "We have supplied goods worth $765 million," he said. According to the minister, electricity accounted for 45% of supplies, food and other goods accounted for the rest. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/306093.html

    Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has suggested terminating the contract for the supply of electrical power to Crimea by a National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) decision. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/306028.html

    Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Volodymyr Demchyshyn has said that the suspension of coal shipments from occupied areas of Donbas is due to technical reasons. "The reasons are different: someone has no diesel fuel, someone something else, but this is not related to political issues," he said at a press conference in Kyiv. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/306128.html

    Ukraine does not see any need for the prepayment to Russia's Gazprom for gas supplies until the end of Q4, 2015, Minister of Energy and Coal Industry Volodymyr Demchyshyn said at a press conference in Kyiv on Monday. Ukraine has sufficient gas reserves in its storages and also hopes for a reduction of the Russian gas price in Q1, 2016, he said.
    http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/306105.html
    Ispan
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    Post  Ispan Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:27 am




    http://fortruss.blogspot.com.es/2015/11/basurin-uaf-offensive-can-begin-at-any.html

    Basurin: UAF offensive can begin at any moment
    November 23, 2015 -
    Novorossiya -
    Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski



    The concentration of UAF manpower and equipment in the direction of Donetsk has been increased by around 1,000 people over the past week, the deputy commander of the DPR Ministry of Defense corps, Eduard Basurin, stated to journalists today.

    “The intelligence services of the DPR have recorded more than a thousand Ukrainian security forces as well as tanks, and self-propelled and volley fire artillery systems near the line of contact in Donbass,” he said.

    According to the data of the defense department, a grouping of more than 1,000 men armed with tanks, self-propelled artillery systems, and volley fire rocket systems has been deployed in the direction of Donetsk by the UAF over the past week.

    “The intelligence of the DPR is continuing to record the movement and accumulation of equipment along the line of contact in the direction of Gorlovka...up to 400 personnel....and in the direction of Donetsk...500 men from Azov battalion,” the representative of the army staff noted.


    According to Basurin, the concentration of man power and equipment has increased in comparison with the previous week, and he does not exclude the possibility of a UAF offensive at any moment.

    *****************************

    My comment: the offensive seems to have been delayed by the rainy weather. The 22 was a bad day with fights all along the front, warming up.


    There will be rain until wednesday 25, and it would be full moon also, though with the cloud cover this is less important. Next week there will come colder weather. If they are going to do some kind of attack to pressure Russia in addition with the blockade of Crimea, likely dates are next weekend.



    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:56 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Some snippets from Kiev. (...)

    Kyiv is having a dead wish, isn't it ? Does it desperatedly want to end its life ?
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:14 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Some snippets from Kiev. (...)

    Kyiv is having a dead wish, isn't it ? Does it desperatedly want to end its life ?

    Kiev is safe. Russia is not doing anything to threaten it.
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    Post  auslander Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:24 pm

    The situation in Sevastopol is getting serious.

    There are three fuel stations on north side, two in Inkerman and I don't know how many in City. Today one station was rationing diesel and selling only to commercial customers. The second station that was open on northside had a line of over 50 vehicles waiting service.

    So far food is plentiful but goods needing refrigeration are in short supply, in particular meat and fresh dairy products.

    Electric is spotty with no real schedule. Ours came on at 00:30 today, went off at 06:00, back on at 12:30.

    Internet and cell service is more spotty than electric. Do not be surprised if I go silent for some days.

    Very reliable reports are the orcs have yet to start repairs to the electric feed system.

    Rada deputats are calling for a complete and total blockade of commerce and personal travel across the Krim-Kherson border.

    So far our local weather is soft, it's actually 21 today. This will end in 10 days or less. I do not have a reliable report of Kherson or north and west Krimu.

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    Rodinazombie

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    Post  Rodinazombie Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:49 pm

    Look after yourself man!

    Its very telling that the regime is responsible, or at least supports this action as they only increase the blockade right after this happens. Good thing os that the germans have labeled this action as a crime, so support for them is seriously waning in europe now. They are getting desperate and all of these actions only reinforce the decision of the people in crimea to have nothing to so with banderstan.

    Is it also true that holland has vetoed the eu accosiation agreement with ukraine?
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:53 pm

    Russia says it's going to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine today or tomorrow

    http://www.businessinsider.com/r-russia-says-to-halt-gas-supplies-to-ukraine-mulling-coal-cut-off-over-crimea-2015-11

    Sorry for Business Insider link....

    Take care Auslander, ukrop pigs will burn, we all know that!!!
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:12 pm

    Some of my friend jokes that Vietnam should export beehive coal/charcoal to Ukraina.

    Who knows, these may be the popular fuel and energy for a future "democratic" country.

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    auslander
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    Post  auslander Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:00 pm

    Net is back on just now, electric is not.

    We were successful in obtaining more diesel for the generator and petrol for the car. The station was not mobbed but busy. They are out of premium and regular petrol, they ran out of premium filling the car directly behind as we were getting the diesel cans filled. I have an emergency reserve also. The only petrol they have is 82, aka tractor fuel, good for the old Ladas and Zaps, death for anything more modern. They will get a reload tonight.

    The main street on northside is virtually devoid of traffic although most of the stores are open, albeit doing sales the old way, calculator or abacus.

    We are good although everyone is worried about the downed plane in Syria. A lot of our local boys are there including some pilots.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:39 pm

    National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov has said that if Ukrainian air space is violated by military aircraft then Ukraine will respond in the same manner as Turkey would. "The Ukrainian military must act in the same way by defending our state from aggression in air space," the NSDC press service quotes Turchynov as saying after an Su-24 Russian Air Force jet was shot down by the Turkish Air Force on Tuesday morning.

    http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/306363.html
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    Karl Haushofer

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:32 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:Look after yourself man!

    Its very telling that the regime is responsible, or at least supports this action as they only increase the blockade right after this happens. Good thing os that the germans have labeled this action as a crime, so support for them is seriously waning in europe now. They are getting desperate and all of these actions only reinforce the decision of the people in crimea to have nothing to so with banderstan.

    Is it also true that holland has vetoed the eu accosiation agreement with ukraine?
    It's only words, no action. Germany will do nothing to help ending the blockade of Crimea.
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    Post  Guest Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:21 pm

    Apparently 7th mobilization wave is on.

    LINK: https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/669410419384131586
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    Rodinazombie

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    Post  Rodinazombie Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:56 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:Look after yourself man!

    Its very telling that the regime is responsible, or at least supports this action as they only increase the blockade right after this happens. Good thing os that the germans have labeled this action as a crime, so support for them is seriously waning in europe now. They are getting desperate and all of these actions only reinforce the decision of the people in crimea to have nothing to so with banderstan.

    Is it also true that holland has vetoed the eu accosiation agreement with ukraine?
    It's only words, no action. Germany will do nothing to help ending the blockade of Crimea.

    Thats not the point.

    Its about the visible waning of european support for the regime in kiev, the gap that is starting to widen between brussels and kiev is very noticeble now.
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:24 pm

    There was already a ban on Russian airlines flying to 404, but now Yats has said that instead of this ban being lifted, which was expected to happen, there will now be a total ban on all Russian aircraft using 404 airspace. You see, Karabas Barabas twitches a finger and events happen. http://ria.ru/world/20151125/1328084101.html#ixzz3sV37pDaz
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:17 pm

    They didn't stop supplying, we stopped buying their gas, says Yats

    KIEV, November 25. /TASS/. Ukraine's cabinet of ministers has banned Naftogaz of Ukraine from importing gas from Russia, according to Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. "The cabinet has decided to order Naftogaz to stop buying Russian gas. Russia got it all wrong: it's not them who stopped gas supplies - we stopped buying it," he said. The prime minister said the main reason for the decision is the difference in European and Russian gas prices, with European ones being "much better", as Yatsenyuk said.

    Earlier on Wednesday, Russian gas giant Gazprom stated that as at 10 o'clock a.m. Naftogaz of Ukraine used earlier prepaid volumes of Russian gas. The Russian company has not received a new prepayment from Ukraine and has no request from Naftogaz of Ukraine for new supplies. That means that supplies will be halted until Gazprom receives new prepayments from the Ukrainian company, the Russian company said.

    Naftogaz of Ukraine also stressed that it will continue to transport Russian gas to European consumers in compliance with the terms of the contract.
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:20 pm

    More at link

    MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia is devising retaliatory measures if Ukraine does not restore electricity in Russia’s Crimea, the speaker of the Russian lower house of parliament, Valentina Matvienko, said Wednesday. "If Ukraine does not restore Crimea’s power supply, we will be forced to respond with adequate measures. Such measures are being developed," Matvienko told reporters.

    The senior lawmaker said the influence of radical nationalist factions on Ukrainian leadership reminded her of a "rudderless ship," citing the lack of search operations for the culprits and no repair works underway. "This is not provocation, this is a terrorist act," she stressed.


    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151125/1030739770/russia-ukraine-restore-electicity-crimea.html#ixzz3sVrgQJtz
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:32 pm

    That's OK then!

    Under the instruction of Chief of the General Staff of Ukrainian Armed Forces Viktor Muzhenko, Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) forces will not open fire in response to militant provocations, according to a Ukrainian envoy in Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC). JCCC envoy General Major Borys Kremenetsky, speaking at a briefing on the ongoing developments along the contact line, reported that militants in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions continue to break the ceasefire. "The terrorists aren’t giving up their aimed and provocative attacks of the ATO positions with small arms, large-caliber machine-guns and grenade launchers, attempting to provoke the servicemen of Ukrainian Armed Forces to fire in response and violate the Minsk agreements," the ATO press centre quotes Kremenetsky as saying.
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    Post  Kadmos45 Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:44 pm

    Ukraine needs much more serious loving this time.
    Why even bother transporting gas through urkians anyway.

    And coal deliveries should never be resumed again.  No talks, no negotiations, no nothing.

    Just pull out the plug indefinitely, and they will eventually beg Russia on knees for mercy ,not now but in less than 2 -3 years eventually.
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:49 am

    Kadmos45 wrote:Ukraine needs much more serious loving this time.
    Why even bother transporting gas through urkians anyway.

    And coal deliveries should never be resumed again.  No talks, no negotiations, no nothing.

    Just pull out the plug indefinitely, and they will eventually beg Russia on knees for mercy ,not now but in less than 2 -3 years eventually.
    Gas goes through Ukraine as it is currently the only way to get that volume of gas into southern Europe.
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    Post  flamming_python Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:24 am

    JohninMK wrote:They didn't stop supplying, we stopped buying their gas, says Yats

    KIEV, November 25. /TASS/. Ukraine's cabinet of ministers has banned Naftogaz of Ukraine from importing gas from Russia, according to Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. "The cabinet has decided to order Naftogaz to stop buying Russian gas. Russia got it all wrong: it's not them who stopped gas supplies - we stopped buying it," he said. The prime minister said the main reason for the decision is the difference in European and Russian gas prices, with European ones being "much better", as Yatsenyuk said.

    Earlier on Wednesday, Russian gas giant Gazprom stated that as at 10 o'clock a.m. Naftogaz of Ukraine used earlier prepaid volumes of Russian gas. The Russian company has not received a new prepayment from Ukraine and has no request from Naftogaz of Ukraine for new supplies. That means that supplies will be halted until Gazprom receives new prepayments from the Ukrainian company, the Russian company said.

    Naftogaz of Ukraine also stressed that it will continue to transport Russian gas to European consumers in compliance with the terms of the contract.

    I'm amazed, they really are doing all the work for us aren't they, and being quite proud while doing it.
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    Post  TheArmenian Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:49 am

    With enemies like this, who needs friends?
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    Rodinazombie

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    Post  Rodinazombie Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:12 am

    Im actually starting to like yatsenyuk, he is turning out to be the best agent of russian policy in area 404.
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:33 am

    TheArmenian wrote:With enemies like this, who needs friends?

    Winner of the Internet!!! lol1 lol1 lol1

    Wish we still had upvotes...
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    Post  Ispan Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:36 am

    This is crazy, everytime the Ukrops are ready to launch an offensive, something unexpected happens that postpones it. They were all set to go starting this wednesday, and the downing of the Russian jet over Turkey has made the West so nervous about heightened tensions that they told the junta to call it off

    Have been unable to find it in English, Poroshenko forbids Ukranian army to fire, starting from
    this midnight.

    http://mundo.sputniknews.com/europa/20151125/1054073664/ucrania-donbas-poroshenko-fuego.html#ixzz3sWAoWkji

    We will see it is for real, or just a treacherous ruse. I expect another delay, but some time or another the Orks will have to attack.


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