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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

    Khepesh
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    Post  Khepesh Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:17 am

    I said it was ratcheting up day by day. One civilian dead and one wounded by ukrops tank fire into Kievsky district of Donetsk http://dan-news.info/defence/odin-chelovek-pogib-i-odin-ranen-v-rezultate-obstrela-donecka-vsu-minoborony.html

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 D558a9b81b53
    franco
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    Post  franco Sun Oct 11, 2015 1:37 am

    It appears that Ukraine is not the only Oligarchy;

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/11/us/politics/2016-presidential-election-super-pac-donors.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    affraid
    Neutrality
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    Post  Neutrality Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:23 am

    Not really related to Ukraine but at the same time it is: http://lenta.ru/news/2015/10/10/belarusmaidown/

    Basically the Belarussian border guard arrested 200 armed men from Ukraine trying to get in. They had pneumatic pistols and bats with them. Too much of a coincidence with the upcoming Belarussian elections. Good job for the border guards.
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    Post  Project Canada Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:36 am

    Neutrality wrote:Not really related to Ukraine but at the same time it is: http://lenta.ru/news/2015/10/10/belarusmaidown/

    Basically the Belarussian border guard arrested 200 armed men from Ukraine trying to get in. They had pneumatic pistols and bats with them. Too much of a coincidence with the upcoming Belarussian elections. Good job for the border guards.

    looks like Ukrops trying to export Maidan to Belarus. this is not a good sign, expect more provocations from these thugs under the request from USIS.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:47 am

    You get the impression that Kiev is trying to play chicken with a brick wall.

    LIMA, October 10./TASS/. The finance ministers of Russia and Ukraine reached no agreement on Friday to restructure the $3 billion debt Kiev owes to Moscow, but will maintain the dialogue, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said.

    Siluanov and his Ukrainian counterpart Natalia Yaresko met in Lima, Peru, on Friday on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund [IMF] and the World Bank [WB] semi-annual meetings.

    "We stated our position on the need to repay the debt owed to Russia. The colleagues from Ukraine’s finance ministry said they have no such money in budget and suggested that we participate in its restructuring along with commercial creditors," Siluanov said. "Russia had another position: we are not a commercial creditor, we are a sovereign creditor, that’s why such conditions are unacceptable for us," he told reporters following the meeting.

    The Ukrainian side officially said after the meeting that Yaresko provided details on the deal on restructuring the debt and called on Russia to participate in it. Moscow could accept the invitation until October 29.

    Russian expects Ukraine to repay the debt in full in December this year, Siluanov reiterated on Friday. Yaresko said Kiev was not planning to offer Russia more favorable conditions on repayment of the Eurobond than those worked out by a group of private creditors.
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:55 am


    These guys read my mind... thumbsup


    An optimistic view of Novorossiya's future

    http://fortruss.blogspot.rs/2015/10/an-optimistic-view-of-novorossiyas.html


    “Everything will be ok - Donetsk columnist to ‘Russian Spring’”

    Among residents of the DPR and LPR, panic and rumors have spread in recent times. It’s said that Russia is leaving us, switching to Syria, and now they will put us back in Ukraine.

    Let’s reason logically.

    What will there be after the October 18 (DPR) and November 1 (LPR) elections? The certification of passports, conditional independence, long years of waiting for recognition by the world community, and the situation of “neither war nor peace, with the constant danger of unexpected shelling and the penetration of Ukrainian sabotage-reconnaissance groups as a permanent hassle.

    Prospects of the republics in the conditions of isolation

    Defense is an expensive area, and Donbass can’t pull its own. In order to effectively protect a 500-700 km border with Ukraine, an entire army and serious engineering structures are needed. This is completely unaffordable, as the republics simply have no money.

    Is it possible to do without a full banking service? Yes. But it’s wildly uncomfortable. Citizens and entrepreneurs are suffering. The former don’t have the opportunity to get a loan, and the latter can’t develop business given the modest purchasing capacity of the population. Dooming Donbass to further economic blockade is a path towards degradation. But without recognition by at least several countries, not a single bank will be able to enter Donbass, as its SWIFT will be a cut, without which there will be no ATM’s or terminals in stores.

    Donbass is an industrial region. But our industry can’t develop in the conditions of economic embargo. There is coal trade, but that goes with great difficulties and interruptions. In order to develop engineering, revive the electronic industries and other traditional professions, international connections are needed. In the end, for the republics to go the “fast” path, we are waiting for industrial degradation and a lack of perspectives of development.

    There is, of course, a chance to live a fulfilling life in the case of a reunification with Russian, which would allow much of the above to be avoided.

    But! Imagine how many new displeasures would befall a large country as a result of such a step? And Novorossiyans will be a scapegoat in the yes of some liberal-minded citizens...and we don’t want to disturb our own.

    A chance for Ukraine - what in fact does this mean?

    Ukraine has already demonstrated utter inability to comply with a single point of Minsk-2. For European guarantors of the agreement, this means a loss of face and confidence. And knowing European traditions, it is easy to assume what will happen next.

    And further, if Poroshenko does not fulfill the Paris commitments, Merkel and Hollande will stop pushing him morally and move on to more effective measures. And at the same time they will recognize the right of the negotiating DPR and LPR, in fulfilling obligations, to independence. Rather, the unilateral declaration of independence. If Russian diplomacy works well and professionally (and to this day there is no reason to cast doubt on this), then on the international level, the right to proclaim independence will be recognized not only for the current territories, but for the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. That is, we will have the opportunity to return the occupied territories without firing a shot!

    Suppose, hypothetically, that Poroshenko meets the obligations? What will this mean for Donbass?

    Absolutely nothing will change. The special status in the wording of the DPR and LPR refers to a broad confederation, and this means that we will have the opportunity to hold a referendum recognized by the world community. And as the people will decide in such a referendum, so be it! The international community will have no choice but to recognize the results of the plebiscite and the new states on the world map. And further - here’s the trick - one more referendum, and I think you all know which questions will be written on the bulletins.

    A small remark on the question of exciting all residents of Donbass. Borders. Will it come to be that, after gaining control of borders with the Russian Federation, Ukraine will simply cram us into a reservation and starve us to death?

    It’s not going to happen. Control over the border is the last point of the Minsk Agreements, and it will be fulfilled after the full implementation of all the preceding points, among which are the points about the people’s militia, the election of prosecutors and judges, and the armed forces and security services (which includes the border guards). So, even if Poroshenko (or the one that will replace him in his post) vouched for some fantastic way to fulfill all of the agreements, there won’t be any new faces seen at the checkpoints of Uspenka, Marinovka, Izvarino, and others.

    How long will the wait be?

    I don’t think that we will have to wait a long time. The Ukrainian authorities already declared their refusal to fulfill Minsk-2. The whole world hears this and is drawing conclusions. Even considering the little interest that Europe and the US have in our fates, they will have to accept the Ukraine's irresponsibility as a given. If Ukrainian deputies and ministers maintain the current degree of “separation,” they will recognize us already in December-January. But this process won’t last later than February-March.

    The price that won’t have to be paid

    For an imaginary well-being, which some just can’t wait to attain today and now, we have had to pay in blood. The blood of residents of Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk, and other occupied cities. Even taking our cities by force means endangering the lives of their residents. Aren’t peoples’ lives worth two or three months of inconvenience? Yes they cost a hundred, thousand times more. Yes, it’s necessary to save the lives of our heroes, defenders, servicemen of the NAF, avoiding victims. They, without argument, are ready to sacrifice the future of Donbass, but it’s better that we stick it out for a while. We will not pay such a price for uncertain prospects, the failure of which is described above.

    What if the UAF go on an offensive?

    Firstly, they have nothing with which to attack. According to the intelligence of the armed forces of the DPR, they are running a few columns here and there along the contact line, creating the illusion of a serious movement of armed forces. Actually, 85-90% of the equipment aimed at Donbass is of third and fourth category, that is, have been kept in open-air storage for 30-40 years with questionable fighting prospects and rusty metal. Add to this low morale, low professionalism, moral decay, and a lack of incentives, and a probability of the occurrence of an offensive can be understood.

    But if by some miracle the UAF go on the offensive, breaking all conceivable and inconceivable norms, those European guarantors under the slight pressure of Russian (and possibly without) will initiate pressure on Ukraine up to the imposition of sanctions, which the country can hardly endure. The last thing that Europe needs today is a mass-scale war in the center of the continent. To whom do you think anyone will trust the operation to force Ukraine to peace? Smile

    What to expect from the future

    In my opinion, only good things can be expected. We’ve already survived the most difficult times. Let’s look around: integration is not simply going, it’s at full steam ahead! Every day, new laws are made and new innovations are published. All areas of our lives are being transferred to new standards. Do you think that they would do this if they ditched us?

    The ruble zone, school programs, Russian diplomas - is this not evidence that we are moving in the right direction and that we are not about to go wrap things up? Not everyone can voice our leaders and those who make decisions, but believe me, before we can go independently, it’s worth including logic.

    I want to end with a banal phrase, because we all need it: everything will be ok!
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:59 am

    But Fortrus then followed it up with this foretaste of hell

    http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/the-real-uaf-from-decrepit-military-to.html
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 11, 2015 10:00 am


    ^^^ I'll go with optimism, especially when we have gems like this one:

    ''Ukrainian Finance Minister: $40 Bln in Assistance Not Enough''

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151011/1028333211.html

    Cool Razz
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:17 pm

    Khepesh wrote:I said it was ratcheting up day by day. One civilian dead and one wounded by ukrops tank fire into Kievsky district of Donetsk http://dan-news.info/defence/odin-chelovek-pogib-i-odin-ranen-v-rezultate-obstrela-donecka-vsu-minoborony.html

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 D558a9b81b53

    They won't stop, their master will not let them stop.
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    Post  GarryB Sun Oct 11, 2015 4:58 pm

    Why would Russia forget about the Donbass?

    If Kiev were able to move it so it was no longer a neighbour then they might... but the Russian friendly regions of the Ukraine are also those that share a border and wont be moving any time soon.

    Russia wants neighbours to be friendly, but Kiev seems keen to change that.

    I would say if Russia was abandoning Ukraine then they would likely have restructured the debt due in December... there is no reason for Russia to give in to the illegal government in Kiev... it is the Kiev government that is in a position of weakness, not Moscow... and I suspect Washington and Brussels knows this too.
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:34 pm

    GarryB wrote:Why would Russia forget about the Donbass?

    If Kiev were able to move it so it was no longer a neighbour then they might... but the Russian friendly regions of the Ukraine are also those that share a border and wont be moving any time soon.

    Russia wants neighbours to be friendly, but Kiev seems keen to change that.

    I would say if Russia was abandoning Ukraine then they would likely have restructured the debt due in December... there is no reason for Russia to give in to the illegal government in Kiev... it is the Kiev government that is in a position of weakness, not Moscow... and I suspect Washington and Brussels knows this too.

    Russia has no intention of abandoning Novorossiya. The delaying of the elections until next year puts Kiev in a very unenviable place. First, Minsk 2 gets extended through part of next year and the dates of the election still make it close time wise for Kiev to belatedly do what they agreed to when they signed Minsk 2. Merkel et al seems to have told Mr. Poroshenko to get off his duff and make it happen. This he can not do and survive, nor can Kiev do and survive. Kiev as they are wont to do will slowly ratchet up the attacks, all the while screaming that it is NAF that is attacking them,not them attacking NAF. We're going to lose some more people, of that there is no doubt, but in the end I have no doubts that Novorossiya will be and Kiev will not.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:30 pm

    auslander wrote:
    GarryB wrote:Why would Russia forget about the Donbass?

    If Kiev were able to move it so it was no longer a neighbour then they might... but the Russian friendly regions of the Ukraine are also those that share a border and wont be moving any time soon.

    Russia wants neighbours to be friendly, but Kiev seems keen to change that.

    I would say if Russia was abandoning Ukraine then they would likely have restructured the debt due in December... there is no reason for Russia to give in to the illegal government in Kiev... it is the Kiev government that is in a position of weakness, not Moscow... and I suspect Washington and Brussels knows this too.

    Russia has no intention of abandoning Novorossiya. The delaying of the elections until next year puts Kiev in a very unenviable place. First, Minsk 2 gets extended through part of next year and the dates of the election still make it close time wise for Kiev to belatedly do what they agreed to when they signed Minsk 2. Merkel et al seems to have told Mr. Poroshenko to get off his duff and make it happen. This he can not do and survive, nor can Kiev do and survive. Kiev as they are wont to do will slowly ratchet up the attacks, all the while screaming that it is NAF that is attacking them,not them attacking NAF. We're going to lose some more people, of that there is no doubt, but in the end I have no doubts that Novorossiya will be and Kiev will not.
    Kiev has a bit of a problem now as you say. On the one hand they were expecting/planning on being able to blame the 'Seperatists' for the Minsk Agreement running out of time at the end of the year and on the other it looks like, to the contrary, the Agreement could keep going, especially if, in an interesting move, the elections are postponed again.

    It now looks like Poro and team are faced with seeing the winter through, which will be tough from whichever subject you want to choose. Still, they have already shown just how good they are at planning so no doubt have a 'shot ourselves in the foot' moment coming.

    One thing they need to bear in mind is that just over the border the Russian Army is champing at the bit, pissed off with all the glory the flyers are getting. One move by the UA and the gates of hell open. If it happens the West will not have a clue how to respond, if Syria is anything to go by.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:47 pm

    JohninMK wrote:..................................................

    One thing they need to bear in mind is that just over the border the Russian Army is champing at the bit, pissed off with all the glory the flyers are getting. One move by the UA and the gates of hell open. If it happens the West will not have a clue how to respond, if Syria is anything to go by.

    Well in all honesty Russian Air Force and Navy were definitely due for some glory given the fact that for a very long time grunts were hogging it all for themselves... Cool russia
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:59 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:..................................................

    One thing they need to bear in mind is that just over the border the Russian Army is champing at the bit, pissed off with all the glory the flyers are getting. One move by the UA and the gates of hell open. If it happens the West will not have a clue how to respond, if Syria is anything to go by.

    Well in all honesty Russian Air Force and Navy were definitely due for some glory given the fact that for a very long time grunts were hogging it all for themselves... Cool russia

    Agreed. The Volga River Flot action got huge publicity here, now it's Mockba and her supporting unit's time. We just hope everyone, our Navy, our Marines and our Air Force, comes home safe and sound.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:12 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CRA6ZLdUAAE_ldu
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:15 pm

    This is how a 'professional' puts the situation

    An increasing dissatisfaction by Ukrainians with the state’s inability to cope with the current problems is playing into the hands of far-right radicals, who are stepping out against Kiev and may inspire a new revolution that will eventually result in the collapse of Ukraine. Armed radical factions can bring Ukraine to its end as a state even before snow falls for the first time this year, American journalist Lev Golinkin wrote for Foreign Policy. He pointed out that the vast majority of revolutions in Eastern Europe usually start as winter begins.

    “Once the cold settles in, the [Ukrainian] government’s empty promises are laid bare. Over the next several days, forecasters are predicting, the temperature in Ukraine will plunge to freezing. When President Petro Poroshenko looks at the thermometer, he should be worried,” Golinkin wrote. According to Golinkin, Ukraine’s citizens are fuming because of falling living standards and the government's inability to rid the country of raging corruption and punish the oligarchs. These are considered the problems that “sparked” the Maidan protests in 2013.

    “Ukraine — fresh off a revolution and followed by 19 months of war — is far from stable. Its citizens have more weapons than they do trust in their government,” the journalist wrote, explaining that if Ukrainians can’t “scrape” money to feed and warm their families, they will obviously blame authorities for the challenges and this time will express their fury not in the voting booths, but in the streets of Kiev. Golinkin believes that a possible uprising will be best scenario for far-rights radicals. Until now, they all had common enemies – Russia and pro-independence seekers in the east of the country. But now they have their eyes fixed on Kiev.

    As for now, both government and radical powers in Ukraine are in a standoff. Petro Poroshenko isn’t entitled to disband the extremist factions across the country and radicals are incapable of taking on the capital openly. “For that [triggering a new revolution], they’ll [radicals] need to have everyday people protesting in the streets. They need another Maidan,” Golinkin pointed out.

    The crowd is the best “fuel” for ultra-right powers; they succeed when they can intermix with protestors in the street, presenting themselves as fighters against corruption and breach of justice. This would bring Poroshenko to a situation in which he could no longer implement IMF reforms, as he would face a new revolt in the heart of Kiev.

    “At worst, this would set off a chain of events that would rapidly turn the country into a fractured, failed state of 45 million people in the middle of Europe,” Golinkin concluded.


    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151011/1028333540/radicals-blow-ukraine.html#ixzz3oGxLD19G
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:26 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CRCMIUBWcAAivJo

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CQqXky2WwAEcgaS
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:38 am

    Seems to have gone quiet again. The last para is the first time I have seen the <100mm withdrawal terms.

    MOSCOW, October 11. /TASS/. The past night in cities and towns along the front line of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) was without shelling from positions of the Ukrainian military, city and local authorities told the Donetsk News Agency on Sunday.

    On Saturday, DPR’s one serviceman was killed and another two wounded in the village of Veseloye after fire was opened from Ukrainian positions, DPR Defence Ministry’s spokesman Eduard Basurin said.

    "Two servicemen are wounded and one is killed in the village of Veseloye," Basurin was quoted by the Donetsk news agency as saying.

    Earlier in the day, reports said that one civilian was killed and another wounded when Ukraine’s Armed Forces opened fire on the Kievsky district in the city of Donetsk.

    ..........................................................

    On September 29, a supplement to the Package of Measures on Implementing the Minsk Agreements from 12 February 2015 was agreed at a meeting of the Contact Group on settlement the Ukrainian crisis, which was organised in Minsk (Belarus). The supplement envisages withdrawal of tanks, artillery weapons of less than 100mm calibre, and mortars of equal to or less than 120mm calibre to a distance of 15 kilometres from the contact line in Donbass. On September 30, the document was signed by DPR head Alexander Zakharchenko and LPR head Igor Plotnitsky. In accordance with the reached agreement, tanks are withdrawn first, followed by artillery weapons of less than 100mm calibre and mortars. The first stage should start two days after the complete ceasefire and finish in 15 days. The second stage will take 24 days to complete. The withdrawal will start in the "North" sector on the LPR territory and will continue in the "South" sector in DPR. The whole process of withdrawal is expected to take a total of 41 days.


    Whole article at http://tass.ru/en/world/827850
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    Post  auslander Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:08 am

    Link from themess, article from RT. Missed it, I did.

    Без комментариев

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=135&v=uLSIjq1zozI
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    Post  Guest Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:37 am

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CRDnsHbWUAA1sem

    Shocked Riiightttt...
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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:59 am

    Militarov wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CRDnsHbWUAA1sem

    Shocked Riiightttt...

    Lol, anyone believe that who is not smoking crack?
    VladimirSahin
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    Post  VladimirSahin Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:00 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    Militarov wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 CRDnsHbWUAA1sem

    Shocked Riiightttt...

    Lol, anyone believe that who is not smoking crack?

    Me clown
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:12 am

    So the MH-17 blame storm starts again. The Sunday Times here has today said that the Dutch will say that it was definitely a Buk.

    With less than two days before the release of the long-awaited official report into the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 tragedy, Russia is angered with the conduct of the investigators, New Straits Times (NST) reported. Over the past 15 months the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) carried out the investigation of the MH17 tragedy that took place on July 17, 2014 above war-torn eastern Ukraine killing all 298 people on board.

    Oleg Storchevoy, the deputy director of the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency, sent a letter to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) accusing the DSB of ignoring "comprehensive information" related to the investigation provided by the Russian side.

    Instead of looking into evidence provided by the Russian side, the DSB chose to stick to their own earlier version that the MH17 flight was shot down by a BUK missile. The investigators had already come to this conclusion before even studying the characteristics of the warhead. Moreover, the DSB failed to explain how they identified data and methods to find out where the missile was fired from, NST reported.

    "All these detailed calculations were ignored by the DSB. As a result, the DSB arrived at conclusions that contradict common sense and are not consistent with the design of this weapons system," Storchevoy said in the letter.

    In other words, it seems that the DSB, from the very beginning, was set to prove that the MH17 was supposedly shot down by a BUK missile.

    After the incident Ukraine and the West accused Donbass militia forces of shooting down the MH17 flight with a Russian-made BUK missile. Russia reportedly denied the accusations.


    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151011/1028361955/dutch-investigators-ignore-evidence-provided-by-russia.html#ixzz3oHsnSJfS
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

    Post  sepheronx Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:26 am

    I think we all came to the conclusion that the investigation would be a sham. Lets face it, they lied about what they were going to do, prevented Russia from participation but Ukraine? Oh yeah, really unbiased source. And facts hidden like air traffic controller data or the info Russia provided.

    At this point, the whole thing is a joke. Ukraine is guilty regardless and they wont face any punishment because they are Netherlands, Denmark, US, UK and what not boys.
    Monarchist
    Monarchist

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

    Post  Monarchist Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:13 am

    [img]The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 Tumblr11[/img]

    “Depressed by the clinical naivety of those, who ask “Gennadiy, why there are no new videos or arctiales? What’s going on in the republics? Is this the end for all hopes?” every day.

    So I anser: 1. Yes, this is the end. There’s nothing to film, the war is over, or, more precisely, we were forced to stop fighting 2. What’s happening in the republics? Everything has already happened. We fought for restoration and strengthening of the neo-slaveholding SYSTEM, we were used and anybody, who doesn’t play by the SYSTEM’s rules is going to be liquidated. 3. I’m going to explain points 1 and 2 (if I’ll be still alive) in series of essays and analitical articles, long promised for various publishers.

    http://kazzuraengsubs.tumblr.com/post/130328801891/depressed-by-the-clinical-naivety-of-those-who

    There you have it in short summary. Now this depressing thread can be closed.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #22 - Page 7 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

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