The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

PapaDragon wrote:
USA and NATO armies invested lot more time and money into training and equipping Iraqi Army than they did at UAF.

We all seen how well that went...

Afghan and Saudi army also show US/NATO training results.

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

Quite so, this "Ukrainian invasion" does not seem to exist in the material world.

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

What I find interesting here is, that Novorussia expect full Ukrainian offensive on a whole front with very large forces, practically with all Ukrainian capabilities. I have no doubt, that Novorussia have very good picture regarding Ukrainian forces as people in occupied territories don't like Ukies and inform Novorussia about anything what happened there, also Russia supply them with satellite pictures and intelligence, which they gather over whole Ukraine. In this reports Novorussia never mention how big are their forces and for some time they didn't give any information, how big their army is, how many soldiers they have, how many tanks, BMPs, artillery, etc. I think they have prepared all plans for any type of full Ukrainian invasion on the whole front with deep defense on the most probable paths of the main Ukrainian attacks. Anyway, Ukrainian offensive will not have one of the most important elements, which is surprise. Novorussia is expecting it and is ready.

Dforce wrote:

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

Quite so, this "Ukrainian invasion" does not seem to exist in the material world.

So, in your expert opinion, this increase of artillery bombardments and huge military buildup means what exactly?

How would you interpret it?

Are they all out there for a picnic, gazing at the stars or a spot of fishing?

Ive defended your presence here, yet your recent posts are quite moronic and come across as trolling. If you cant actually contribute anything worthwhile you might as well not bother.

Rodinazombie wrote:

Dforce wrote:

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

Quite so, this "Ukrainian invasion" does not seem to exist in the material world.

So, in your expert opinion, this increase of artillery bombardments and huge military buildup means what exactly?

How would you interpret it?

Are they all out there for a picnic, gazing at the stars or a spot of fishing?

Ive defended your presence here, yet your recent posts are quite moronic and come across as trolling. If you cant actually contribute anything worthwhile you might as well not bother.

Fishing, I think.

What confirmation do we really have for this "buildup"? The seps are screaming "Ukraine will attack" and Ukraine are sceaming "the seps will attack", but I would say that the evidence for ANY major attack is slim at best.

The artillery duels are not oragnized in a manner to defeat defensive positions in order to support a major attack, but looks more like random acts of violence followed with the usual posturing from both sides. The OSCE only reports of minor reinforcements on either side. Yes, both sides wants the other side to think they will attack unless their demands are met, but nobody have anything to gain from an attack. Ukraine would lose a lot of Western support, and Russia do not want to give the West any excuse for more sanctions.

If you call my reasoning "trolling" it is all fine, but at what date will you admit I might be right? No attack in a week, a month, or?

medo wrote:

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

What I find interesting here is, that Novorussia expect full Ukrainian offensive on a whole front with very large forces, practically with all Ukrainian capabilities. I have no doubt, that Novorussia have very good picture regarding Ukrainian forces as people in occupied territories don't like Ukies and inform Novorussia about anything what happened there, also Russia supply them with satellite pictures and intelligence, which they gather over whole Ukraine. In this reports Novorussia never mention how big are their forces and for some time they didn't give any information, how big their army is, how many soldiers they have, how many tanks, BMPs, artillery, etc. I think they have prepared all plans for any type of full Ukrainian invasion on the whole front with deep defense on the most probable paths of the main Ukrainian attacks. Anyway, Ukrainian offensive will not have one of the most important elements, which is surprise. Novorussia is expecting it and is ready.

The surprise will be for the Kiev regime and NATO. You have hit on a critical detail: the size and readiness of the NAF. I believe
it is much higher than it was in August of 2014. I think the NAF has 50,000 men and the number of tanks is probably over 200.
If the regime throws all of its 90,000 troops and 450 tanks at Novorossia it will be totally frustrated. In spite of the factor of
2 "advantage" of the regime in men and tanks, the actual effectiveness is lower than the NAF.

medo wrote:

Mike E wrote:
.................................

Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

What I find interesting here is, that Novorussia expect full Ukrainian offensive on a whole front with very large forces, practically with all Ukrainian capabilities. I have no doubt, that Novorussia have very good picture regarding Ukrainian forces as people in occupied territories don't like Ukies and inform Novorussia about anything what happened there, also Russia supply them with satellite pictures and intelligence, which they gather over whole Ukraine. In this reports Novorussia never mention how big are their forces and for some time they didn't give any information, how big their army is, how many soldiers they have, how many tanks, BMPs, artillery, etc. I think they have prepared all plans for any type of full Ukrainian invasion on the whole front with deep defense on the most probable paths of the main Ukrainian attacks. Anyway, Ukrainian offensive will not have one of the most important elements, which is surprise. Novorussia is expecting it and is ready.

NAF is just playing possum... oldest and best trick in the book.

I dont think the whole attack of Ukraine ,once start a major offensive.. aims to take and hold territory and drive away the Rebels across all Donetsk and Lugansk.. The whole think is to use
as many tanks and forces possible to and scare Russia so much about the possibility of Donetsk
and Lugansk separatist to not hold ,that they will be forced to invade Ukraine..  
In other words is a major Provocation plan ,to make Russian Army to invade Ukraine or
use its Airforce and directly attack the Ukraine army position in a way that Russia cannot hide
its participation and that is attacking ukraine.. so that later Kiev and Americans can demand
the EU to start a more strong wave of sactions that could truly hurt and pressure more Russia
economy..  In other words...   the whole offensive of kiev.. its ultimate goal is to break Russia economy by provoking Russia into invading Ukraine and later US have an excuse to Pressure Europe for a strong new wave of sanctions..

I have been saying that since 2014 ,since the conflict began... Reason why RUssia does not invade in a full scale war.. because it was an economic war..and the military of ukraine was used to achieve those objectives.. Why they bomb all vital facilities of Donetsk and Lugansk ,water supplies plants ,electric plants ,and chemical industry and mines..anything that Rebels could use to help civilians to have a life in eastern ukraine....so later Russia needs to use their money and repair it.. today now we see reports , confirming what i have been saying for a long time ..

The real reason behind Kiev's coming offensive is to plunge Russia into economic crisis

It seems that the bound for defeat Kiev's intention to attack Donbass has received its justification. They want to disconnect Russia from SWIFT and destroy it, this time once and for all. The Polish Vice-President of the European Parliament, Ryszard Czarnecki has literally said the following:

"As a result of exclusion from the international SWIFT system, the state budget of Russia would  lose 10%, while Russia's GDP would decrease by 5% per year."

"The exclusion of Russia from the international SWIFT system",  - he said in response to the question of what sanctions mean.

"Due to this decision, the Russian Federation will lose 5% of GDP per year. I want to draw your attention to the fact that for the first two quarters of the year, Russia has lost 4.6% of GDP. For the end of the year, the state treasury would lose 10%, it would be a calamity,"  - he said.

http://vz.ru/news/2015/8/17/761690.html


Vice-President of the European Parliament admits that there is an economic war being waged against Russia. War, aiming to repeat the scenario of "Perestroika", i.e. - the collapse of our country.

Thus, according to the MEP, now the economic situation in Russia is deteriorating, and reminds of the 80-s, when the Soviet Union could not withstand the economic, political and military competition with the West. "It was in the worst economic situation. Let's be honest, for the West this is a kind of hope. As for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - it is a headache," - said Czarnecki.

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/08/the-real-reason-behind-kievs-coming.html

The above report.. shows how Polish government thugs ,are already cheerleading
Europe to start a major economic sabotage against Russia.

The Americans Government policies are easy to predict as 1 2 3..Because Americans cannot fight Russia directly.. they target its economy. and they repeat a lot their old ways. they are trying to give Russia another Soviet Afgan war.. A war that Americans CIA provoked on Russia and forced them to invade Afganistan.. and while on cameras the American Presidents were blaming soviets for the conflict and demanding they to leave Afganistan.. behind the scenes they trying to keep the soviets stuck in Afganistan for decades for fear the jihadist will eventually move into Russian territory , it was economic war..and Soviets did not saw the trap.

SO if Americans become really desperate.. what you will see now different is that Crimea and Russian border cities will become target of artillery too from Ukraine army with logistic provided
by US satellites.

The Remaining question for me is what Most of the European Union will do.. specially germany and France.. will they allow Americans to escalate the conflict and sabotage their plans for an end of the conflict? or will they will follow Americans political games and pretend that Russia
is the aggressor and the one not wanting to implement Minsk-2 and that kiev is only
fighting " In self defense"..

When it comes to the light support of Russia to rebels.. with weapons and staff.. it will not easy for Ukraine or even NATO  to take any territory in any offensive if Rebels are well armed with modern light weapons that Russia have.. Between  Russia counter electronics that can blind
NATO/kiev communications ,and Javelins long range missiles and NATO drones.. and the use of 10km kornets-EM will keep Ukraine or NATO at distance ,this is not mentioning Russia lazer munition artillery that can shutdown tanks on the move.. and that there have to be heavy Russian newer  long range  artillery like koalition  with 50km range that could provide support from RUssian Border.. to the rebels in secret..  All said the Rebels will not be alone.. and Ukraine taking control of the Borders with Russia in Donetsk and lugansk is wishful thinking. That is to think that Russia will do nothing and allow Kiev and Americans under their noses to fight the Rebels and indiscriminately bomb at their borders without Russia doing nothing.

''Minister: more than 250,000 tons of grain missing from Ukraine’s State Reserve''

http://tass.ru/en/world/815841

Words of Oliver Twist come to mind...

PapaDragon wrote:
''Minister: more than 250,000 tons of grain missing from Ukraine’s State Reserve''

http://tass.ru/en/world/815841

Words of Oliver Twist come to mind...

Not to worry, they will find a way to blame Russia.

Dforce wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:

Dforce wrote:

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

Quite so, this "Ukrainian invasion" does not seem to exist in the material world.

So, in your expert opinion, this increase of artillery bombardments and huge military buildup means what exactly?

How would you interpret it?

Are they all out there for a picnic, gazing at the stars or a spot of fishing?

Ive defended your presence here, yet your recent posts are quite moronic and come across as trolling. If you cant actually contribute anything worthwhile you might as well not bother.

Fishing, I think.

What confirmation do we really have for this "buildup"? The seps are screaming "Ukraine will attack" and Ukraine are sceaming "the seps will attack", but I would say that the evidence for ANY major attack is slim at best.

The artillery duels are not oragnized in a manner to defeat defensive positions in order to support a major attack, but looks more like random acts of violence followed with the usual posturing from both sides. The OSCE only reports of minor reinforcements on either side. Yes, both sides wants the other side to think they will attack unless their demands are met, but nobody have anything to gain from an attack. Ukraine would lose a lot of Western support, and Russia do not want to give the West any excuse for more sanctions.

If you call my reasoning "trolling" it is all fine, but at what date will you admit I might be right? No attack in a week, a month, or?

Thank you, good post at last!

PapaDragon wrote:
''Minister: more than 250,000 tons of grain missing from Ukraine’s State Reserve''

http://tass.ru/en/world/815841

Words of Oliver Twist come to mind...

Good news. Not for the people of Ukraine, but for Novorossiya. Anything that harms Ukraine is good at this moment.

Dforce wrote:

Fishing, I think.

What confirmation do we really have for this "buildup"? The seps are screaming "Ukraine will attack" and Ukraine are sceaming "the seps will attack", but I would say that the evidence for ANY major attack is slim at best.

The artillery duels are not oragnized in a manner to defeat defensive positions in order to support a major attack, but looks more like random acts of violence followed with the usual posturing from both sides. The OSCE only reports of minor reinforcements on either side. Yes, both sides wants the other side to think they will attack unless their demands are met, but nobody have anything to gain from an attack. Ukraine would lose a lot of Western support, and Russia do not want to give the West any excuse for more sanctions.

If you call my reasoning "trolling" it is all fine, but at what date will you admit I might be right? No attack in a week, a month, or?

Patrushev has repeated the same thing today. Putin more or less said the same words before him. That Kiev is not interested in fulfilling the Minks agreements and instead wants to solve the situation through military means. You can ofcourse claim that the Russians are lying but I wouldn't be so sure about that.

At least 55 Russian traitors bit the dust in Donbas. Good riddance.

http://memorybook.org.ua/regions/other.htm

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

Time for popcorn?

Kiev will have to change their plans if DPR know of them already.

medo wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Detailed briefing by Basurin about what is thought may happen. The video has captions


And the map behind him


90000 men
450 tanks
2500 BMP/BTR
5 Tochka-U launch systems
230 MLRS
1050 artillery pieces and mortars
3500 assorted AT weapons

The map is really just a possibility and shows everything that could happen, not what will happen as ukrops could not really launch that many major assaults at the same time with any hope of success, well, they can try....

When?....

On the paper, this is quite big force, but we must not forget that Novorussian army is not weak either. Only in Debalcevo they capture 87 tanks, 124 BMPs and APCs, around 400 peaces of artillery and mortars, etc and they have a lot of this equipment from earlier battles too. In the times of winter offensive Zaharchenko talk about plans to increase Novorussian army to 100.000 men and we could be sure, that Novorussian army didn't sleep for this half a year. They for sure increase their numbers too, so at best ratio between Ukrainian army and Novorussian army is around 1,5:1. Novorussian army is also more experienced, better trained and with higher moral in defending their homes and families as majority of Ukrainian soldiers are new mobilized ones and older veterans are mostly dead or invalids.

There is also a good question, how much reserves have Ukraine left to mobilize. I don't think they have much tanks, BMPs and BTRs and artillery left in reserves to bring them to the front. I think big part of those big numbers are really old reserves, more proper for museums than for the battlefield.

This force is about a 40% of the maximum that Ukraine can have available restoring all their warfare that run not. Ukraine has not money, then the easiest way to increase their warfare is to restore the pieces that they have from sovietic time and to use the old ammunition stored. I'm sure the biggest efforts to rearm Ukraine are done by this way. Also they can receive some sovietic warfare in little amounts from other Eastern Europe countries, but for these countries it is more comfortable to sale them as spare parts to recover the Ukranian warfare. Only little amounts remained in these countries before the war, and after the war all it will disappear from the arsenals of these countries. This is why I think a good part of the oldest Ukranian material can be restored with time, but still very difficult to see them to go over the theoric maximum (warfare owned running or not). Except in the case of T-72 and something else Ukraine can not increase its warfare from other Eastern Europe countries. It is necessary to take into account that some of these countries produced own versions of Sovietic warfare and that now are trying to build own armament industry from that basis. They do not want their variants to be destroyed in this war in order to protect the image of their own industry now suposedly meeting the NATO requirements.

Then to put in play a 40% of the theoric maximum is a very important effort, but also shows the weakness of the Ukranian military forces outside the frontline today. If this bareer is surpased there is "nothing" back. They keep back a higher percentage of their Surface-Air and Surface-Surface Systems but very little of the rest for as big territory. As example it is difficult to see how Ukraine can go with a strong army after Transdnistria. Also, it seems that they are working like if the chance of an attack from Russia outside of the current frontline would be 0.

The prospect for the Ukranian army is bad. Novorrussia can keep the front line with some, not big, help. At this point I think it is easier to see the Novorrussia forces surpasing the Ukranian army than the inverse situation. Taking the front line in a deep sense, there is bigger amount of forces ready to combat in the side of Novorrussia than in the side of Ukraine.

Even it is not difficult to see where the next Ukranian cauldron can fall.

Neutrality wrote:
Patrushev has repeated the same thing today. Putin more or less said the same words before him. That Kiev is not interested in fulfilling the Minks agreements and instead wants to solve the situation through military means. You can ofcourse claim that the Russians are lying but I wouldn't be so sure about that.

It is not as much lying as part of a propaganda war. The Kremlin would like most of all that Ukraine accepted the Minsk agreement and let the Republics back into Ukraine under the terms Russia have stipulated. Bar that, it would be in Moscows interest that Ukraine attacked and showed the world that the Russian side is defending itself. Therefore that is what Putin discuss.

However, if Ukraine chooses to do nothing, that is the least favourable outcome for Moscow. Russia have to take responsability for the areas and do not get any inflience in Kiev, and Ukraine can pretend they are definding themself. The more the inevitable integration between Russia and the affected areas deepens, the more the West can scream "more landgrab". I know what advice I would give to Poro if I was in that position. In fact, I would make it clear that financial help for Ukraine depended on him following that line of reasoning.

Dforce wrote:

Neutrality wrote:
Patrushev has repeated the same thing today. Putin more or less said the same words before him. That Kiev is not interested in fulfilling the Minks agreements and instead wants to solve the situation through military means. You can ofcourse claim that the Russians are lying but I wouldn't be so sure about that.

It is not as much lying as part of a propaganda war. The Kremlin would like most of all that Ukraine accepted the Minsk agreement and let the Republics back into Ukraine under the terms Russia have stipulated. Bar that, it would be in Moscows interest that Ukraine attacked and showed the world that the Russian side is defending itself. Therefore that is what Putin discuss.

However, if Ukraine chooses to do nothing, that is the least favourable outcome for Moscow. Russia have to take responsability for the areas and do not get any inflience in Kiev, and Ukraine can pretend they are definding themself. The more the inevitable integration between Russia and the affected areas deepens, the more the West can scream "more landgrab". I know what advice I would give to Poro if I was in that position. In fact, I would make it clear that financial help for Ukraine depended on him following that line of reasoning.

Ukraine cannot choose to do nothing. If Ukraine does nothing, then Donbas will vote to join Russia and Ukraine will lose Donbas forever. I think the local elections in October will end Minsk 2 and there will be war after that.

Even if Ukraine does nothing, NAF will attack Kiev and Ukraine will become Syria 2.0

A country at war will never be accepted into NATO

Dforce wrote:

Neutrality wrote:
Patrushev has repeated the same thing today. Putin more or less said the same words before him. That Kiev is not interested in fulfilling the Minks agreements and instead wants to solve the situation through military means. You can ofcourse claim that the Russians are lying but I wouldn't be so sure about that.

It is not as much lying as part of a propaganda war. The Kremlin would like most of all that Ukraine accepted the Minsk agreement and let the Republics back into Ukraine under the terms Russia have stipulated. Bar that, it would be in Moscows interest that Ukraine attacked and showed the world that the Russian side is defending itself. Therefore that is what Putin discuss.

However, if Ukraine chooses to do nothing, that is the least favourable outcome for Moscow. Russia have to take responsability for the areas and do not get any inflience in Kiev, and Ukraine can pretend they are definding themself. The more the inevitable integration between Russia and the affected areas deepens, the more the West can scream "more landgrab". I know what advice I would give to Poro if I was in that position. In fact, I would make it clear that financial help for Ukraine depended on him following that line of reasoning.

If Ukraine chooses to do nothing they are still stuck with slow inevitable collapse. No stability, no resolution, no investments, no recovery, no future.

Russia does not have to take responsibility for jack sh*t. Novos can and do integrate with Russia even as we speak and no one remotely relevant says jack about it.

If Porkins and the gang want to still have a country with name Ukraine they will do as they are told by Ruskies regardless of how hard it is to swallow the terms.

Novos reintegrate in Ukraine under Russia's terms or no more Ukraine and Novo becomes new capitol of new state.

You just don't know how to recognise a no-win situation Big D.

kvs wrote:

medo wrote:

Mike E wrote:
Time for Putin to show the West what a real invasion looks like. 

What I find interesting here is, that Novorussia expect full Ukrainian offensive on a whole front with very large forces, practically with all Ukrainian capabilities. I have no doubt, that Novorussia have very good picture regarding Ukrainian forces as people in occupied territories don't like Ukies and inform Novorussia about anything what happened there, also Russia supply them with satellite pictures and intelligence, which they gather over whole Ukraine. In this reports Novorussia never mention how big are their forces and for some time they didn't give any information, how big their army is, how many soldiers they have, how many tanks, BMPs, artillery, etc. I think they have prepared all plans for any type of full Ukrainian invasion on the whole front with deep defense on the most probable paths of the main Ukrainian attacks. Anyway, Ukrainian offensive will not have one of the most important elements, which is surprise. Novorussia is expecting it and is ready.

The surprise will be for the Kiev regime and NATO.   You have hit on a critical detail: the size and readiness of the NAF.  I believe
it is much higher than it was in August of 2014.   I think the NAF has 50,000 men and the number of tanks is probably over 200.
If the regime throws all of its 90,000 troops and 450 tanks at Novorossia it will be totally frustrated.   In spite of the factor of
2 "advantage" of the regime in men and tanks, the actual effectiveness is lower than the NAF.  

Well, if Franco is correct, NAF has roughly 70,000 troops or so.  There is a possibility they have more or less.  As for tank numbers, I keep hearing all kinds of rumors. 230 - 310 or so tanks what Franco presumes.

Dforce wrote:It is not as much lying as part of a propaganda war. The Kremlin would like most of all that Ukraine accepted the Minsk agreement and let the Republics back into Ukraine under the terms Russia have stipulated.  Therefore that is what Putin discuss.

Under the terms of what would be Ukraine turning into a -wait for it- Federal state. Shocking isn't it? Like Belgium, Switzerland or Canada. We are all living in sheer terror under this system. Life is hard I tell you.

I'll spell it out for you: if Ukraine chooses to give up its unitary status and turn into a federal state it means Donetsk and Lugansk get their political self-rule status within the territory of Ukraine and with its own economy. De-facto Donetsk and Lugansk will become independent. That is not mentioning the potential fear in Kiev that other regions might get ideas. Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and perhaps even Odessa for example.

Bar that, it would be in Moscows interest that Ukraine attacked and showed the world that the Russian side is defending itself.

I just don't see this logic. If Ukraine attacked the Russian territory tomorrow then yes, we'd be talking about "Russia defending itself". But how does this kind of thinking fit in here? Ukraine is fighting against itself. This is a civil war and I don't give a sh*t if you think otherwise. If it smells like a civil war, talks like a civil war and behaves like a civil war then chances are it's in fact a civil war. Russia is simply giving Donbass, the part of Ukraine that doesn't want to be part of the current shenanigans, a last word. Volunteers? Sure. Limited supply of weapons? Sure, I won't disagree because clear cut evidence is there. Full blown use of Russian Armed Forces? I disagree there. We all witnessed in Crimea how a full blown use of the RuAF looks like.

However, if Ukraine chooses to do nothing, that is the least favourable outcome for Moscow.

And that's a wrong line of thinking. The less war rhetoric there is from Kiev, the more people's attention shifts towards internal problems. Like the crumbling economy for example and the destruction of livelihoods that go with it. Currently the war is scapegoat #1 that Kiev uses as an argument.