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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

    Khepesh
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    Post  Khepesh Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:13 pm

    While we sit and wait, some more entertainment. "Super Zakharchenko!"
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:27 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Off Topic  Off Topic  Off Topic

    This should go on humor tread but it deserves better coverage for sheer amount of highly filtered stupidity:

    ''Norway Premieres 'Russian Invasion' Television Series''

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150821/1026015798/norway-television-series-occupied.html

    ''Norway's largest commercial broadcaster, TV 2, announced the premiere of a new television series in which Russia occupies the country on behalf of the EU to force it to produce oil.......''

    lol1 lol1 lol1

    That sentence had me in stitches.... pwnd Laughing

    Behold the trailer:


    Wolverinert!!!  lol1  Very Happy

    Any Norvegan speakers here?

    Wolverines!!

    Watched the trailer, there's a wonderful quote. "I told you specifically not to provoke the Russians!" How poignant at this particular point in events.
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:29 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

    This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

    Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

    Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.  

    Too many on here are brimming with overconfidence and underestimating the ukies.

    Rest assured if we can see it, they can see it too and will adjust their plans accordingly. They arent as dumb as some on here think. Dont expect the same mistakes of last summer and winter to be repeated again. Of course it will be a bonus if they are, but dont expect it. Otherwise we may end up with an ugly surprise.
    Agreed, they have had plenty of time this year rather than last's rush job. Importantly, the UA now has senior US/NATO planning and intelligence assets on site in force and they will not want to be on the losing side as, if for no other reason, it would be bad for their careers. As we are seeing, to a small extent so far, every trick, good and bad, in the military textbook is going to be deployed. This is do or die time on both sides.

    Now that they have had time to read up on and game wars without airpower, those Majors and up will want to return West in glory with medals, having planned, co-ordinated and won a war with a new type of battle, with their names on the strategy lessons in the staff colleges.

    But then the same is happening in the East.

    It may not be a 'our own feet on the ground' type of war for the controllers of the two sides, but make no mistake, this is now a very serious US/NATO versus Moscow senior military management fight. Neither side wants to lose and that is very dangerous.
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    Post  auslander Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:35 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

    This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

    Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

    Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.  

    Too many on here are brimming with overconfidence and underestimating the ukies.

    Rest assured if we can see it, they can see it too and will adjust their plans accordingly. They arent as dumb as some on here think. Dont expect the same mistakes of last summer and winter to be repeated again. Of course it will be a bonus if they are, but dont expect it. Otherwise we may end up with an ugly surprise.
    Agreed, they have had plenty of time this year rather than last's rush job. Importantly, the UA now has senior US/NATO planning and intelligence assets on site in force and they will not want to be on the losing side as, if for no other reason, it would be bad for their careers. As we are seeing, to a small extent so far, every trick, good and bad, in the military textbook is going to be deployed. This is do or die time on both sides.

    Now that they have had time to read up on and game wars without airpower, those Majors and up will want to return West in glory with medals, having planned, co-ordinated and won a war with a new type of battle, with their names on the strategy lessons in the staff colleges.

    But then the same is happening in the East.

    It may not be a 'our own feet on the ground' type of war for the controllers of the two sides, but make no mistake, this is now a very serious US/NATO versus Moscow senior military management fight. Neither side wants to lose and that is very dangerous.

    You get a pat on the back for that one, John. Well said, very well said, and how very true.
    medo
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    Post  medo Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:45 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

    This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

    Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

    Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.  

    Too many on here are brimming with overconfidence and underestimating the ukies.

    Rest assured if we can see it, they can see it too and will adjust their plans accordingly. They arent as dumb as some on here think. Dont expect the same mistakes of last summer and winter to be repeated again. Of course it will be a bonus if they are, but dont expect it. Otherwise we may end up with an ugly surprise.




    Of course, we must not underestimate Ukies, I only point out, that Novorussian army is not as weak, as it was one year ago with many small more or less independent units. Now they are forming classical regular army with command structure and heavy armament, which units are commanded by experienced and capable commanders. Novorussian army with having around 60 to 70 thousand soldiers with similar number of tanks and artillery and mortars they could stop Ukrainian offensive as their units prove many times, that they could keep their defending positions against far bigger Ukrainian force for quite a long time like in Saur Mogila, Donetsk airport, etc. Novorussian army now also have Pions, Uragans and Smerch complexes, so they could concentrate quite a big fire power on Ukrainian armor concentrations.

    I'm quite surprised with the relatively small number of tanks. I think in previous offensives Ukrainian army have more tanks than now. I think they already lost around 900 tanks till now, so I think they will slowly run out of tanks. Also from those 2500 armored vehicles, I wonder how big share of them are weak armored and armed MT-LBs, Saxons and Hummers or old BTR-60 and BMP-1s. Majority of their best working equipment is already destroyed in previous offensives or captured by Novorussian army.

    Other question is ammunition. The only Ukrainian ammunition factory is in Lugansk in Novorussia, so Novorussian army have a supply of new ammunition, while Ukrainian army depend on stored reserves and with any newer offensive they have to take more old ammunition from stocks, which is of lower quality.

    Novorussian army also collect large numbers of mines from Ukrainian mine fields in liberated areas. We could be sure, they will well use them in their defending positions.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:25 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 13 Image20

    Looks like locals anger towards OSCE is starting to reach boiling point.
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:28 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 13 Image20

    Looks like locals anger towards OSCE is starting to reach boiling point.
    It would be more effective and perhaps spread wider if written in English.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:32 pm


    @auslander, RodinaZombie

    Trust me guys, I do not underestimate UAF, I am fully aware of their stats but I also do not underestimate NAF unlike last August.

    Most of folks were probably very confident back then but year ago I honestly thought that NAF were down for the count and that soon they will be moped up and forgotten by everyone, Russia included. I thought that Moscow will throw Novorossia to the wolves.

    I felt like sh*t back then, I stopped following the news and waited for everything to be over. And then one morning my mom came and told me she watched the news and saw that something is up.
    We all know now what was up.russia

    I am so glad I was wrong. I jumped out of my seat when tide turned and ukrops were hogtied in Ilovaysk, when NAF held at Saur Mogila,  when they reached the coast and when ''Northeners'' stormed in.

    I kid you not guys, my faith in mankind was restored back then.

    That is why I am more upbeat about NAF prospects now. thumbsup
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    Post  Rodinazombie Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:39 pm



    Of course, we must not underestimate Ukies, I only point out, that Novorussian army is not as weak, as it was one year ago with many small more or less independent units. Now they are forming classical regular army with command structure and heavy armament, which units are commanded by experienced and capable commanders. Novorussian army with having around 60 to 70 thousand soldiers with similar number of tanks and artillery and mortars they could stop Ukrainian offensive as their units prove many times, that they could keep their defending positions against far bigger Ukrainian force for quite a long time like in Saur Mogila, Donetsk airport, etc. Novorussian army now also have Pions, Uragans and Smerch complexes, so they could concentrate quite a big fire power on Ukrainian armor concentrations.

    I'm quite surprised with the relatively small number of tanks. I think in previous offensives Ukrainian army have more tanks than now. I think they already lost around 900 tanks till now, so I think they will slowly run out of tanks. Also from those 2500 armored vehicles, I wonder how big share of them are weak armored and armed MT-LBs, Saxons and Hummers or old BTR-60 and BMP-1s. Majority of their best working equipment is already destroyed in previous offensives or captured by Novorussian army.

    Other question is ammunition. The only Ukrainian ammunition factory is in Lugansk in Novorussia, so Novorussian army have a supply of new ammunition, while Ukrainian army depend on stored reserves and with any newer offensive they have to take more old ammunition from stocks, which is of lower quality.

    Novorussian army also collect large numbers of mines from Ukrainian mine fields in liberated areas. We could be sure, they will well use them in their defending positions.

    NAF has been constantly training and improving throughout the whole period of 'ceasefire', we have seen dozens and dozens of videos showing this, these guys look and fight like a proper army now. They will always have the advantage over the UAF as they are volunteering to do this, whilst the ukies are mainly conscripts who dont want to be there.  Id take 1 volunteer over 20 pressganged conscripts any day.

    The ukies have also been busy dont forget, their army has come a long way since the days of rolling into slavyansk suburbs and firing all their ammo into the air and driving away again. They are battle hardened and have gained a lot of experience, those that fought in any of the cauldrons and survived will have learnt a lot of bitter lessons from that and i doubt they will happen again. In many situations ukies were slaughtered because they allowed it to happen, take for example zelenopole where they were camped out in the middle of a field and all got toasted, theres no chance of them doing that now. First thing they do now is get their shovels out when they stop. Basic soldiering really, but thats how backward ukies were at the start of this war, from now on the rebels wont get any free lunches.

    Many of us thought debalcevo was going to be a free lunch after seeing illovaysk and others, but ukies despite heavy losses managed to defend themselves quite well and made sure the rebels would have to pay for victory with blood.

    With regards to ammunition supplies, we have already seen that other former warpac countries are supplying them, to what extent is unknown but whatever the situation ukraine will not be allowed to run out of ammo by its 'friends'.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:43 pm

    sunny
    JohninMK wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 13 Image20

    Looks like locals anger towards OSCE is starting to reach boiling point.
    It would be more effective and perhaps spread wider if written in English.

    If they were ukrainian, then it would be in english as they are constantly performing for a western audience, but these people are russian, and so dont care or think about what people like me or you might think a thousand miles away in our comfy armchairs.
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:50 pm

    auslander wrote:
    You get a pat on the back for that one, John. Well said, very well said, and how very true.
    Thanks, that's appreciated.

    We have to face the fact that TPTB pulling the strings of Kiev have not moved that amount of military force East just to keep them off the streets in the West. There will be many there that would regard just bringing them home as a defeat, if not a defeat worse than having been beaten in battle when they would at least get sympathy money.
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:52 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote: sunny
    JohninMK wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #20 - Page 13 Image20

    Looks like locals anger towards OSCE is starting to reach boiling point.
    It would be more effective and perhaps spread wider if written in English.

    If they were ukrainian, then it would be in english as they are constantly performing for a western audience, but  these people are russian, and so dont care or think about what people like me or you might think a thousand miles away in our comfy armchairs.
    I wasn't thinking about you and me, we know much of what is happening. I was thinking that perhaps the incident would have had a better chance of publicity beyond us.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:54 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    @auslander, RodinaZombie

    Trust me guys, I do not underestimate UAF, I am fully aware of their stats but I also do not underestimate NAF unlike last August.

    Most of folks were probably very confident back then but year ago I honestly thought that NAF were down for the count and that soon they will be moped up and forgotten by everyone, Russia included. I thought that Moscow will throw Novorossia to the wolves.

    I felt like sh*t back then, I stopped following the news and waited for everything to be over. And then one morning my mom came and told me she watched the news and saw that something is up.
    We all know now what was up.russia

    I am so glad I was wrong. I jumped out of my seat when tide turned and ukrops were hogtied in Ilovaysk, when NAF held at Saur Mogila,  when they reached the coast and when ''Northeners'' stormed in.

    I kid you not guys, my faith in mankind was restored back then.

    That is why I am more upbeat about NAF prospects now. thumbsup

    Haha yes i remember the feeling well, sinking feeling as the ukies took town after town without a fight from the rebels, it really looked to me like the rebels had given up and that moscow was throwing them to the wolves. When the flag was raised at saur mogila after changing hands many times, i felt like that was a symbolic turning point in this war.

    It was a 'after stalingrad we knew we could win, after kursk we knew we would' kind of moment.

    I can understand why people are so upbeat over NAF abilities, but i think we shouldnt be concentrating on illovaysk as the type of scenario that will be repeated. More thoughts should be on debalcevo and how hard a fight was needed to close that cauldron. Thats where NAF should be learning lessons from.

    Im sure they are by the way, the 'tourist information centre' that supports the vacationers and friends has been pretty spot on so far and I expect next time a large operation such as debalcevo will go a lot smoother.



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    Post  Khepesh Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:08 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    I wasn't thinking about you and me, we know much of what is happening. I was thinking that perhaps the incident would have had a better chance of publicity beyond us.
    It almost did not get a viewing on Russian networks because of the obscenity which had to be covered up or it could be banned. On the windows "Tell the truth", and "Truth" sprayed over "Pricks"
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    Post  sepheronx Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:10 pm

    What would also be a deciding factor is if Russia gets involved....more. I mean, providing naf with more equipment, and significantly more intelligence/counter intelligence. As well, how well dug in they are too. As long as they keep their artillery units hidden and ready, they could strike real hard. But we all know the US is in control so their sat intel will be watching. I just hope Russias intel sats are providing data back to the rebels.

    Like someone else said, as soon as Ukies get too close, Russia could indeed use electronic warfare from the borders to cause disruption in their communications equipment and guidence systems. Or possible artillery fire.

    I would also would be happy to hear of Russia simply using Iskander or cruise missile to strike the Ukies concentrated positions, like they did to Georgia in 2008, destroying a lot of tanks and other units.

    But I dont see that happening of course. But I doubt Russia will sit out. I mean, if T-90's appeared in Lugansk last year, would be interesting if they provide some this year, with more modern anti tank weapons.

    I have faith in Naf. Hopefully they can drum up more soldiers to help since Ukies have a lot of men (even for a failed mobilization.
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    Post  auslander Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:24 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    @auslander, RodinaZombie

    Trust me guys, I do not underestimate UAF, I am fully aware of their stats but I also do not underestimate NAF unlike last August.

    Most of folks were probably very confident back then but year ago I honestly thought that NAF were down for the count and that soon they will be moped up and forgotten by everyone, Russia included. I thought that Moscow will throw Novorossia to the wolves.

    I felt like sh*t back then, I stopped following the news and waited for everything to be over. And then one morning my mom came and told me she watched the news and saw that something is up.
    We all know now what was up.russia

    I am so glad I was wrong. I jumped out of my seat when tide turned and ukrops were hogtied in Ilovaysk, when NAF held at Saur Mogila,  when they reached the coast and when ''Northeners'' stormed in.

    I kid you not guys, my faith in mankind was restored back then.

    That is why I am more upbeat about NAF prospects now. thumbsup

    My friend, that was a warning to everyone, not you in particular. I/we have watched this entire tragedy unfold since early November '13 and that is precisely what it is, a tragedy. With all of our work with so many people involved in the war we have met not a single one who doubts the eventual victory of NAF and Novorossiya, nor do we.

    Debaltsyevo was not the cluster intercourse that some want to present it as, we've talked to too many veterans of that fight to think otherwise. It was a grinding, head to head may the best man win fight and in the end the Ukrainians folded and asked for terms, and before the Ukrainians asked for terms the much vaunted westerners asked for and were allowed safe passage out of the cauldron. More's the pity for that but it's not for me to make that decision.

    In times before yes, we were deeply worried about the fate of Novorossiya but we never wavered, we always had, and have, faith in a victorious outcome.

    This coming fight may well be the final major battle. Novorossiya will never again be a part of the Ukraine we know, that is a given, too much blood has been spilled for the situation to be anything but complete and final separation from Ukraine. That being said, I have no idea what this 'Ukraine' will look like in the coming months. Only time will tell, but I think eventually this patchwork quilt of a country will be no more.

    For us, we just want peace and tranquility for all.
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    Post  whir Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:35 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Agreed, they have had plenty of time this year rather than last's rush job. Importantly, the UA now has senior US/NATO planning and intelligence assets on site in force and they will not want to be on the losing side as, if for no other reason, it would be bad for their careers. As we are seeing, to a small extent so far, every trick, good and bad, in the military textbook is going to be deployed. This is do or die time on both sides.

    Now that they have had time to read up on and game wars without airpower, those Majors and up will want to return West in glory with medals, having planned, co-ordinated and won a war with a new type of battle, with their names on the strategy lessons in the staff colleges.

    But then the same is happening in the East.

    It may not be a 'our own feet on the ground' type of war for the controllers of the two sides, but make no mistake, this is now a very serious US/NATO versus Moscow senior military management fight. Neither side wants to lose and that is very dangerous.
    Fair but there's a problem with that reasoning, Kiev failed because it's forces were politically driven and a year later it's leadership is even more ideologically driven that in was in the summer of 2014. Obviously this doesn't mean it's forces should be underestimated under any circumstances but those advisers are there as political commissars to assure political control. Poroshenko himself described the situation quite well when he said to Lukashenko that "he's not playing fair".
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:48 pm

    Anyone know if this is accurate?

    http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/photo/ukrainian-soldiers-in-zaytseve-near-horlivka-396288.html
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    Post  medo Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:50 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:


    Of course, we must not underestimate Ukies, I only point out, that Novorussian army is not as weak, as it was one year ago with many small more or less independent units. Now they are forming classical regular army with command structure and heavy armament, which units are commanded by experienced and capable commanders. Novorussian army with having around 60 to 70 thousand soldiers with similar number of tanks and artillery and mortars they could stop Ukrainian offensive as their units prove many times, that they could keep their defending positions against far bigger Ukrainian force for quite a long time like in Saur Mogila, Donetsk airport, etc. Novorussian army now also have Pions, Uragans and Smerch complexes, so they could concentrate quite a big fire power on Ukrainian armor concentrations.

    I'm quite surprised with the relatively small number of tanks. I think in previous offensives Ukrainian army have more tanks than now. I think they already lost around 900 tanks till now, so I think they will slowly run out of tanks. Also from those 2500 armored vehicles, I wonder how big share of them are weak armored and armed MT-LBs, Saxons and Hummers or old BTR-60 and BMP-1s. Majority of their best working equipment is already destroyed in previous offensives or captured by Novorussian army.

    Other question is ammunition. The only Ukrainian ammunition factory is in Lugansk in Novorussia, so Novorussian army have a supply of new ammunition, while Ukrainian army depend on stored reserves and with any newer offensive they have to take more old ammunition from stocks, which is of lower quality.

    Novorussian army also collect large numbers of mines from Ukrainian mine fields in liberated areas. We could be sure, they will well use them in their defending positions.

    NAF has been constantly training and improving throughout the whole period of 'ceasefire', we have seen dozens and dozens of videos showing this, these guys look and fight like a proper army now. They will always have the advantage over the UAF as they are volunteering to do this, whilst the ukies are mainly conscripts who dont want to be there.  Id take 1 volunteer over 20 pressganged conscripts any day.

    The ukies have also been busy dont forget, their army has come a long way since the days of rolling into slavyansk suburbs and firing all their ammo into the air and driving away again. They are battle hardened and have gained a lot of experience, those that fought in any of the cauldrons and survived will have learnt a lot of bitter lessons from that and i doubt they will happen again. In many situations ukies were slaughtered because they allowed it to happen, take for example zelenopole where they were camped out in the middle of a field and all got toasted, theres no chance of them doing that now. First thing they do now is get their shovels out when they stop. Basic soldiering really, but thats how backward ukies were at the start of this war, from now on the rebels wont get any free lunches.

    Many of us thought debalcevo was going to be a free lunch after seeing illovaysk and others, but ukies despite heavy losses managed to defend themselves quite well and made sure the rebels would have to pay for victory with blood.

    With regards to ammunition supplies, we have already seen that other former warpac countries are supplying them, to what extent is unknown but whatever the situation ukraine will not be allowed to run out of ammo by its 'friends'.

    True, but junta in Kiev is still the same, corrupt generals in Ukrainian general stuff and in ATO are still the same and their care for their soldiers is still the same.

    Regarding east European NATO members, you have to know, that with NATO membership, they have to go for NATO calibers and they don't produce ex-Warpac stuff anymore. A lot of their warpac stocks were used in Balkan wars, sold in Afrika and Asia, sent to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya, so there is a good question, how much of those stocks are still left there, that they could send them to Ukraine. Also Arabs pay better than Ukraine.
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    Post  auslander Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:58 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    You get a pat on the back for that one, John. Well said, very well said, and how very true.
    Thanks, that's appreciated.

    We have to face the fact that TPTB pulling the strings of Kiev have not moved that amount of military force East just to keep them off the streets in the West. There will be many there that would regard just bringing them home as a defeat, if not a defeat worse than having been beaten in battle when they would at least get sympathy money.

    Agreed, one can not pull those numbers in to the field without the intention of using them. On the other hand one can not just leave them sitting in the fields as a force in being, they have to go about their reason for being within a reasonable time frame or they will lose their edge and begin to deteriorate, that's a fact.

    School starts 01 September and tourist season ends two days before. Will Kiev/USEU wait until after tourist season to strike? I don't know and I for certain will not give them my thoughts on what should be done, I'll let them stew in their own juices for the duration.

    The coming fight will be very strong. We are going to lose a lot of good men and women and a whole lot of innocent civilians but we hope and pray that victory will be ours, no matter how bitter that victory may be.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:06 pm

    Personally, I don't think either side will make a move before local elections in October. The local elections will break Minsk 2. There would be bad PR otherwise.
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    Post  victor1985 Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:51 pm

    i put a question that i believe is very interesting: suppose all your life you were live in a sistem that permanently say something bad about another country well how to see the truth when all you hear are the worse things about that country and you use to think your sistem is the best and you see some nice things about that country in international papers but you dont have a real proof that is real and?
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    Post  Guest Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:02 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

    This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

    Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

    Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.  

    Too many on here are brimming with overconfidence and underestimating the ukies.

    Rest assured if we can see it, they can see it too and will adjust their plans accordingly. They arent as dumb as some on here think. Dont expect the same mistakes of last summer and winter to be repeated again. Of course it will be a bonus if they are, but dont expect it. Otherwise we may end up with an ugly surprise.
    Agreed, they have had plenty of time this year rather than last's rush job. Importantly, the UA now has senior US/NATO planning and intelligence assets on site in force and they will not want to be on the losing side as, if for no other reason, it would be bad for their careers. As we are seeing, to a small extent so far, every trick, good and bad, in the military textbook is going to be deployed. This is do or die time on both sides.

    Now that they have had time to read up on and game wars without airpower, those Majors and up will want to return West in glory with medals, having planned, co-ordinated and won a war with a new type of battle, with their names on the strategy lessons in the staff colleges.

    But then the same is happening in the East.

    It may not be a 'our own feet on the ground' type of war for the controllers of the two sides, but make no mistake, this is now a very serious US/NATO versus Moscow senior military management fight. Neither side wants to lose and that is very dangerous.
    While there are well trained intelligence and advisers now controlling Kiev I still have doubts about the quality of their troops. The NAF has taken training their men very seriously after Debaltsevo. We seen multiple large scale NAF exercises being conducted and we say multiple videos of more independent training. Two months ago, (around same time that Porkins had Transnistria fetish) we saw a short but brutal NAF counterattack on the VSU and all their buddies. The counterattack stopped, but it showed the fighting prowess of the NAF we know now. Meanwhile, on the Ukrop side, none of this has been happening. Sure a few units got trained by US and other NATO troops but we haven't seen anything like what the NAF has been doing. Not long ago, we even saw video of Ukrop troops claiming they haven't been rotated once since last April. The majority of the Ukrop forces are tired and I am willing to bet that they rather not fight. Especially if they think that they are going up against a much stronger force known as the Russian Military. Plus, the Ukrop Military is so heavily infiltrated by Russian operatives that I wouldn't be surprised to see that NAF will know every single move.

    With that said, the coming battle will be a difficult one. It looks like the Ukrops are throwing nearly everything they have at the NAF. Similar to the Russian Army during the First Chechen War. They UAF still has the advantage on paper. So we will see how this plays out. I am sick and tired of this war and I cannot imagine what the people of Donbass are going through. After seeing and hearing stories about what some residents of Donbass went through, I am personally hoping that this battle will be so bad for the Hohols that kids my age and younger that are fighting (there are quite a few of them) will never see their parents again.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:12 pm


    USA and NATO armies invested lot more time and money into training and equipping Iraqi Army than they did at UAF.

    We all seen how well that went...
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:24 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    USA and NATO armies invested lot more time and money into training and equipping Iraqi Army than they did at UAF.

    We all seen how well that went...

    True that. But keep in mind NAF is nowhere as scary as ISIS. NAF treats prisoners humanely, even letting them go out of generosity. ISIS tortures prisoners to death. Ukrainian soldiers aren't nearly as scared of NAF as Iraqi soldiers are scared of ISIS. Otherwise NAF would have taken Debaltsevo in 2 days tops.

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