The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

I would say that not much of what is shown on the map as regards movements will happen as it is shown. In sektor "M" I think more likely an attempt to cut off VSN in the south by cutting thro at Dokuchaevsk on an axis towards the border much further south than what the map shows. They need to draw reserve forces away from Starabeshevo and away from Donetsk, and with sufficient force protection on their left flank to prevent the reserve distrupting what happens further south and any advances around the south of Donetsk. ukrops do not need to advance right up to the border with Russia, they only need to defeat VSN in the field around Dokuchaevsk, to beat of the reserve, and to take Telmanovo as it controls all access to VSN forces in the south. If they take Telmanovo, which is well within range of artillery and MLRS from Russia, they would crowd into the city I think it impossible that Russia would then bombard Telmanovo as it would cause mass civilian casualties and be a PR disaster. But this is all a ukrops fantasy, the reality will be rather different. It is also possible that ukrops will not attack in the south as most expect, but simply appear to do so and keep the substantial VSN tank forces around Telmanovo immobile, not knowing if they need to stay put to repel an attack, or, IF it starts to go really bad around Donetsk, essentially abandon the south and attempt a counter strike into ukrops south flank in order to save Donetsk. But this is all a guessing game and I'm sure the reality will surprise us all, except the result...

And to quote and answer myself

they only need to defeat VSN in the field around Dokuchaevsk, to beat of the reserve, and to take Telmanovo

Of these three "only" I rate ukrops at achieving zero out of three.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Does Ukraine has those numbers in the junkyards even (the APC numbers might have been plausible all things taken to consideration BEFORE this Situation and then some). Tanks are probably all they actually got. This is surreal.

It's Basurin, so I'm not taking it too seriously. Not his fault of course as he does an essential job

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Let's hope NAF sfffers low enough casualties to conduct a limited offensive and at least recover the parts of Donbass lost in 2014 - moving the frontline westwards would give Donbass time to recuperate economically - something that is not possible today.

BTW - are new NAF units trained in Donbass or in Russia?

All in Donbass, there are videos of this

KoTeMoRe wrote:
Does Ukraine has those numbers in the junkyards even (the APC numbers might have been plausible all things taken to consideration BEFORE this Situation and then some). Tanks are probably all they actually got. This is surreal.

Ukraine Independence Day celebrations should be held on 24th. Last year there were videos and reports beforehand showing armour groups practising on an airfield somewhere. The armour did indeed show up on the actual parade. This year all I have seen are groups of troops in brand new US-supplied uniforms carrying backpacks. The troops look a particularly sorry sight. Porkoshenko is supposedly going to be talking with Merkel and Hollande on the day - a good way for him not to be directly assocciated with the embarassment the parade will be. It seems that the Ukrops have sent everything they have got to the front, new, old, refurbished, worn-out.

Mobilisation results are so poor that the government has resorted to handing out bribes to enccourage people to sign up - $100 quoted. How long does it take to train willing recruits to be competent fighters? I'm sure the military experts here know, but my guess is many many months. How long does it take to train unwilling / press-ganged conscripts? Forever and a day is my guess.

The US has supplied the regime with at least one military field hospital apable of dealing with 3000 patients, so it looks like the are expecting massive losses anyway.

From my surveys of reports, it seems that separatist outbursts and anti-regime dissent has been kept under ontrol in places like Odessa, Mariupol, Kharkov, and Zakarpatyia by the presence of Nazi supporters. Early Zakarpatyian outbreaks were effectively suppressed a year or so ago. Interestingly, reports of protests are reappearing, suggesting either that the Nazis are losing grip or the respective civilians sense this might be the big / final chance. If the Ukrops go all in in the east, will there be massive responses in Odessa etc? Are there local partisan groups who could destablise Ukrop resupply routes? Maybe others with local connections could comment?

Update: I forgot to mention that the trial of the individuals supposedly responsible for the Odessa massacre at Kulikovo Field has been delaed until 26 August - ie until after Independence Day. Maybe all will be revealed in the next few days.

Once again, 2500 APC's would mean that, by any logic, there's the juice to power those 2.5K, there are parts, there's a log train, there's the actual crew to man them. About 3 per vehicle that means 7.5K Add about 1.3K for the tankers.

There aren't 9K people who're going to crew no Armada there. 20K K to ride them, who's going to man the guns (even on a short crew that's 4 people). There's no 90K Ukrainian Army going in. Because if that was, they'd be attacking right now and you'd see NovoRussia(tm) Airforce blowing up shit left and right from Izvarino to Kiev.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Once again, 2500 APC's would mean that, by any logic, there's the juice to power those 2.5K, there are parts, there's a log train, there's the actual crew to man them. About 3 per vehicle that means 7.5K Add about 1.3K for the tankers.

There aren't 9K people who're going to crew no Armada there. 20K K to ride them, who's going to man the guns (even on a short crew that's 4 people).  There's no 90K Ukrainian Army going in. Because if that was, they'd be attacking right now and you'd see NovoRussia(tm) Airforce blowing up shit left and right from Izvarino to Kiev.

Most importantly, the logistics. 2500 APCs require tremendous amounts of fuel. Not even to mention tanks, trucks and other mechanized units of their army. Where are they getting this from?

0 Maidan soldiers KIA and 2 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday

KoTeMoRe wrote:Once again, 2500 APC's would mean that, by any logic, there's the juice to power those 2.5K, there are parts, there's a log train, there's the actual crew to man them. About 3 per vehicle that means 7.5K Add about 1.3K for the tankers.

There aren't 9K people who're going to crew no Armada there. 20K K to ride them, who's going to man the guns (even on a short crew that's 4 people).  There's no 90K Ukrainian Army going in. Because if that was, they'd be attacking right now and you'd see NovoRussia(tm) Airforce blowing up shit left and right from Izvarino to Kiev.

Yep, the numbers of BMP/BTR are way off, in my opinion they have already burned through quite a large proportion of battle ready and those refurbished by cannibalizing others for parts. LA.info shows very high numbers of destroyed and captured, while it should not be forgotten that the damaged and those worn out from action aren't shown.
In late autumn and winter a much larger proportion of BMP-1 variants began appearing as well, probably signifying the lowering BMP-2 availability.

On the tank numbers, a tank by itself is not a weapon. The critical component, well-trained tank crews, appear to be in very short supply. Pre-war tank and mechanized brigades of UA suffered quite a number of tank losses, and to a lesser degree, losses of valuable trained crews.

I hope I am right, in my opinion Kiev decided against any further offensive operations. Yes, open warfare keeps people minds off domestic issues, but humiliating defeats, retreats and losses that are getting harder to hide are far worse for the regime. They decided in favour of harrasing artillery fire, making life miserable for people in Donbass (in line with Poroshenkos "their children will hide in basements), relying on large stocks of ammo, both domestic and "donated" by former WP neighbours.

Khepesh wrote:It's Basurin, so I'm not taking it too seriously. Not his fault of course as he does an essential job

The map provided would be something in line with what their foreign "advisors" (I am certain they were present) hoped for when they conceived those ill-fated thrusts, near border and intended to encircle major cities. It resulted in very high losses among the best battalions of UAF. NAF won't be getting such opportunities any time soon.

The offensive part is more tricky though. While this is all good and funny, the real problems keep piling up. For instance, current Donbass situation is a cancer. The coal TPP's need replacing if you need to get away from Donbass. Steel is an issue as well. As a functioning economy Ukraine needs Donbass badly. It's hard cash coming in, nevermind what Maidan Svidomites do tell. This is a divorce, it will cost a pretty penny to offload the burden Donbass (and Crimea) caused to Ukropia. The other problem is for the Neighbouring Dnepropetrovsk area. They too are losing a lot, because while Akhmetov is still funneling shit to Ukropia, at some moment, that trade will be subordinated to political situation.

This is a catch 22. Ukraine can't attack, but can't also let the situation rot anymore than this. It risks creating the real premises for a definitive split. This time not something rather construed. I'm talking about an Ossetian situation.

Unless Porkoshenko gets the country back together, he's not going to make it through the mandate. For all the dumdums that were jumping on Maidan (both figuratively and physically, this is an heart breaker).

SturmGuard wrote:The map provided would be something in line with what their foreign "advisors" (I am certain they were present) hoped for when they conceived those ill-fated thrusts, near border and intended to encircle major cities. It resulted in very high losses among the best battalions of UAF. NAF won't be getting such opportunities any time soon.

Exactly my thoughts as well. That looks like the operationnal plan last summer.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Exactly my thoughts as well. That looks like the operationnal plan last summer.

map shows the front line as it is now, not last summer. Then ukrops controlled everything south of a line generally from Georgievka to the west of Donetsk to Dimitrovka almost at the border for most of the time, not including the excursions along the border by Zelenepole and eventually the assault to Krasny Luch. VSN never had anything south of that general line until the counter offensive and advance to Mariupol and there was no large ukrops formations around Volnovakha as is shown on that map until almost Minsk 1, or after.

Khepesh wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Exactly my thoughts as well. That looks like the operationnal plan last summer.

map shows the front line as it is now, not last summer. Then ukrops controlled everything south of a line generally from Georgievka to the west of Donetsk to Dimitrovka almost at the border for most of the time, not including the excursions along the border by Zelenepole and eventually the assault to Krasny Luch. VSN never had anything south of that general line until the counter offensive and advance to Mariupol and there was no large ukrops formations around Volnovakha as is shown on that map until almost Minsk 1, or after.

I don't say it is the plan. It looks like what they had in mind and what they tried. Between wishes an reality the gap my vary. a lot.

Khepesh wrote:map shows the front line as it is now, not last summer. Then ukrops controlled everything south of a line generally from Georgievka to the west of Donetsk to Dimitrovka almost at the border for most of the time, not including the excursions along the border by Zelenepole and eventually the assault to Krasny Luch. VSN never had anything south of that general line until the counter offensive and advance to Mariupol and there was no large ukrops formations around Volnovakha as is shown on that map until almost Minsk 1, or after.

The frontlines on the map are current, but the idea of UkrOp forces conducting deep mechanized thrusts with the aim of splitting and encircling NAF forces is not based on reality. They simply don't have the necessary advantage in mobility and firepower, nor the required numerical advantage, in addition to the fact they got badly mauled last time they wanted to repeat US successes against Iraq. UkrOp forces instead would prefer something like Donetsk airport and surrounding area battles, a steady attritional combat.

UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

And if that map has any reality on it, I don't see how Group M is going to try and punch through while having it "Russian Flank" exposed to Tagan Rog which is said to be the Southern Hub for the DPR. This is retarded. It's worse than their previous attack at Ilovaisk while having zero security. And they again dream of that DPR/LPR split which is NEVER going to happen unless the Ukropitheques want another Northern Wind kind of deal; oh well...

PapaDragon wrote:
UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.

Khepesh wrote:

Godric wrote:
the engines don't sound healthy ... they are actually T-80Bs with a crude upgrade nowhere near the standard of the Russian T-80BV .. what version of Era are they equipped with ?? how degraded is it knowing Ukraine it was made in the 1980s

I would say that the first three are real BV by looking at the bricks on the side of the turret over the smoke dischargers, which is the normal BV position. The others have no smoke dischargers and the box on the side in the normal B position were the dischargers are on a BV. It would be interesting to know if the bricks even have their explosive charge, unless canibalised from other tanks, as the factory that makes the explosive is in Donetsk, the chemical factory that ukrops throw Tochka at.

I'm glad you brought that up Khepesh I remember reports from last year where T-64BV's had no era in their bricks ... seemingly it was a widespread problem for the HaHol forces

Khepesh wrote:Detailed briefing by Basurin about what is thought may happen. The video has captions


And the map behind him


90000 men
450 tanks
2500 BMP/BTR
5 Tochka-U launch systems
230 MLRS
1050 artillery pieces and mortars
3500 assorted AT weapons

The map is really just a possibility and shows everything that could happen, not what will happen as ukrops could not really launch that many major assaults at the same time with any hope of success, well, they can try....

When?....

On the paper, this is quite big force, but we must not forget that Novorussian army is not weak either. Only in Debalcevo they capture 87 tanks, 124 BMPs and APCs, around 400 peaces of artillery and mortars, etc and they have a lot of this equipment from earlier battles too. In the times of winter offensive Zaharchenko talk about plans to increase Novorussian army to 100.000 men and we could be sure, that Novorussian army didn't sleep for this half a year. They for sure increase their numbers too, so at best ratio between Ukrainian army and Novorussian army is around 1,5:1. Novorussian army is also more experienced, better trained and with higher moral in defending their homes and families as majority of Ukrainian soldiers are new mobilized ones and older veterans are mostly dead or invalids.

There is also a good question, how much reserves have Ukraine left to mobilize. I don't think they have much tanks, BMPs and BTRs and artillery left in reserves to bring them to the front. I think big part of those big numbers are really old reserves, more proper for museums than for the battlefield.

Interesting. The orc reserves have one buttock in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, the other in Kharkov Oblast, and their maidenhead is sitting in Donetsk Oblast with the knees about 50 klicks apart. If it does come to a rout of the orcs then attacking and destroying the reserves are an accepted part of any offensive action.

auslander wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
UAF is now on their sixth mobilization wave. This means that significant number of their ranks arrived after Debaltsevo. Hence only real combat experience they would have is lobbing shells from stationary position without much response from enemy.

This will change drastically once they go on the offensive because they will have to move under storm of fire likes of which they never seen before unlike NAF who all, by now, got accustomed to operating under artillery barrages.

Troop rotation is important factor. Many of the most experienced UAF troops from a year ago would be demobilized by now.

Never underestimate your enemy. Orcs have been blooding their troops for five months now.  

Too many on here are brimming with overconfidence and underestimating the ukies.

Rest assured if we can see it, they can see it too and will adjust their plans accordingly. They arent as dumb as some on here think. Dont expect the same mistakes of last summer and winter to be repeated again. Of course it will be a bonus if they are, but dont expect it. Otherwise we may end up with an ugly surprise.

   

This should go on humor tread but it deserves better coverage for sheer amount of highly filtered stupidity:

''Norway Premieres 'Russian Invasion' Television Series''

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150821/1026015798/norway-television-series-occupied.html

''Norway's largest commercial broadcaster, TV 2, announced the premiere of a new television series in which Russia occupies the country on behalf of the EU to force it to produce oil.......''



That sentence had me in stitches....

Behold the trailer:


Wolverinert!!!    

Any Norvegan speakers here?