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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    Flagship Victory
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:48 pm

    In other words, pretty much all of Maidan's military is concentrated at the front? Shocked
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:09 pm

    Minsk 2 finished? cheers I sure hope so.
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    Post  franco Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:22 pm

    https://twitter.com/sbobkov

    Check down to the map of the projected attacks. Tried to copy and paste here but a no go.

    Lugansk is also expecting a 2 brigade plus attachments attack originating from Severodonetsk driving towards the city.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:39 pm

    The entire Maidan army is thrown in. One thing's for sure. This is make or break.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:42 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 36 1
    franco wrote:https://twitter.com/sbobkov

    Check down to the map of the projected attacks. Tried to copy and paste here but a no go.

    Lugansk is also expecting a 2 brigade plus attachments attack originating from Severodonetsk driving towards the city.
    If the UA attempts that double thrust there must be a strong chance of traffic jams plus that concentration makes for a very juicy target.
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    Post  franco Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:49 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 36 1
    franco wrote:https://twitter.com/sbobkov

    Check down to the map of the projected attacks. Tried to copy and paste here but a no go.

    Lugansk is also expecting a 2 brigade plus attachments attack originating from Severodonetsk driving towards the city.
    If the UA attempts that double thrust there must be a strong chance of traffic jams plus that concentration makes for a very juicy target.

    They do like to get themselves surrounded and cut off Wink

    dunno confused Someone spent too much time studying German tactics on the Eastern Front?
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    Post  Erk Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:54 pm

    JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Security officers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have frustrated a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, spokesman for the DPR defnce ministry Eduard Basurin said on Sunday. "A Ukrainian sabotage party was frustrated in a special operation of the DPR state security ministry on August 13. As a result, three Ukrainian militants were killed, one was detained," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying. "No further details can be disclosed in the interests of the investigation." He said however that the detained Ukrainian officer "has information about an offensive the Ukrainian army command is planning against the Donetsk and Lugansk republics." Basurin added that DPR security services had exposed 11 such groups tasked to abduct DPR servicemen to later use them in fake reports about detention of Russian servicemen.

    Ukraine’s army has pulled three army units, more than 430 tanks, 132 multiple launch rocket systems and up to 830 artillery pieces and mortars to the line of engagement in Donbass, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Sunday.

    "The Ukrainian group in sector C consists of up to 22 battalions, 130 tanks, 950 armoured personnel carriers, 290 artillery weapons and mortars, and up to 35 multiple launch rocket systems," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying.

    Apart from that, he said, up to 26 battalions with 230 tanks and 75 multiple launch rocket systems have been concentrated in sector B. Up to 20 battalions, 75 tanks and 22 multiple launchers are deployed in sector M.

    "Over the day, Ukrainian troops have been building up weapons of a caliber more than 100mm along the line of contact in violation of the Minsk agreements the Ukrainian side put its signature under," Basurin said.

    He said deployment of so many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements evidenced Kiev’s preparations for a new phase of large-scale combat operations. "We call on the international community to take urgent measures to prevent inhumane and criminal plans of [Ukrainian President ] Pyotr Poroshenko to unleash a new spiral of combat operations and genocide in eastern Europe. It is not yet late to prevent a fire of a new war in Europe," Basurin stressed.

    Forget Minsk. That sounds like a very serious build up. Can the NAF defend against such large numbers?
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:57 pm

    Erk wrote:Forget Minsk. That sounds like a very serious build up. Can the NAF defend against such large numbers?

    Maybe, maybe not. If not, then NAF will be finished. Maidan is going all in. Poroshenko wants to make a name for himself on August 24 Independence Day.
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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:02 am

    Erk wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Security officers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have frustrated a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, spokesman for the DPR defnce ministry Eduard Basurin said on Sunday. "A Ukrainian sabotage party was frustrated in a special operation of the DPR state security ministry on August 13. As a result, three Ukrainian militants were killed, one was detained," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying. "No further details can be disclosed in the interests of the investigation." He said however that the detained Ukrainian officer "has information about an offensive the Ukrainian army command is planning against the Donetsk and Lugansk republics." Basurin added that DPR security services had exposed 11 such groups tasked to abduct DPR servicemen to later use them in fake reports about detention of Russian servicemen.

    Ukraine’s army has pulled three army units, more than 430 tanks, 132 multiple launch rocket systems and up to 830 artillery pieces and mortars to the line of engagement in Donbass, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Sunday.

    "The Ukrainian group in sector C consists of up to 22 battalions, 130 tanks, 950 armoured personnel carriers, 290 artillery weapons and mortars, and up to 35 multiple launch rocket systems," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying.

    Apart from that, he said, up to 26 battalions with 230 tanks and 75 multiple launch rocket systems have been concentrated in sector B. Up to 20 battalions, 75 tanks and 22 multiple launchers are deployed in sector M.

    "Over the day, Ukrainian troops have been building up weapons of a caliber more than 100mm along the line of contact in violation of the Minsk agreements the Ukrainian side put its signature under," Basurin said.

    He said deployment of so many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements evidenced Kiev’s preparations for a new phase of large-scale combat operations. "We call on the international community to take urgent measures to prevent inhumane and criminal plans of [Ukrainian President ] Pyotr Poroshenko to unleash a new spiral of combat operations and genocide in eastern Europe. It is not yet late to prevent a fire of a new war in Europe," Basurin stressed.

    Forget Minsk. That sounds like a very serious build up. Can the NAF defend against such large numbers?

    Up to 90,000, of which many don't want to fight, against 75,000 fighting for their homes, family, freedom and revenge.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:15 am

    Erk wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Security officers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have frustrated a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, spokesman for the DPR defnce ministry Eduard Basurin said on Sunday. "A Ukrainian sabotage party was frustrated in a special operation of the DPR state security ministry on August 13. As a result, three Ukrainian militants were killed, one was detained," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying. "No further details can be disclosed in the interests of the investigation." He said however that the detained Ukrainian officer "has information about an offensive the Ukrainian army command is planning against the Donetsk and Lugansk republics." Basurin added that DPR security services had exposed 11 such groups tasked to abduct DPR servicemen to later use them in fake reports about detention of Russian servicemen.

    Ukraine’s army has pulled three army units, more than 430 tanks, 132 multiple launch rocket systems and up to 830 artillery pieces and mortars to the line of engagement in Donbass, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Sunday.

    "The Ukrainian group in sector C consists of up to 22 battalions, 130 tanks, 950 armoured personnel carriers, 290 artillery weapons and mortars, and up to 35 multiple launch rocket systems," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying.

    Apart from that, he said, up to 26 battalions with 230 tanks and 75 multiple launch rocket systems have been concentrated in sector B. Up to 20 battalions, 75 tanks and 22 multiple launchers are deployed in sector M.

    "Over the day, Ukrainian troops have been building up weapons of a caliber more than 100mm along the line of contact in violation of the Minsk agreements the Ukrainian side put its signature under," Basurin said.

    He said deployment of so many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements evidenced Kiev’s preparations for a new phase of large-scale combat operations. "We call on the international community to take urgent measures to prevent inhumane and criminal plans of [Ukrainian President ] Pyotr Poroshenko to unleash a new spiral of combat operations and genocide in eastern Europe. It is not yet late to prevent a fire of a new war in Europe," Basurin stressed.

    Forget Minsk. That sounds like a very serious build up. Can the NAF defend against such large numbers?
    Almost certainly yes, primarily because it is not just the NAF. It is possible that the NAF will use their proven 'cauldron' tactic, let the strike pass through then slaughter it from the sides. Also the further east the strike gets the more difficult its logistics becomes plus its gets within range of an exponential amount of 'over the border' gun barrels and tubes. The Russian's guns or planes don't need to actually cross the border (no Russian troops in Ukraine remember) to inflict serious damage on attacking troop concentrations and, given the size of the attacking formations and the limited areas suitable for massed tank attack, they will almost inevitably be very concentrated. Did someone mention Iskander?
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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:16 am

    franco wrote:
    Erk wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Security officers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) have frustrated a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, spokesman for the DPR defnce ministry Eduard Basurin said on Sunday. "A Ukrainian sabotage party was frustrated in a special operation of the DPR state security ministry on August 13. As a result, three Ukrainian militants were killed, one was detained," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying. "No further details can be disclosed in the interests of the investigation." He said however that the detained Ukrainian officer "has information about an offensive the Ukrainian army command is planning against the Donetsk and Lugansk republics." Basurin added that DPR security services had exposed 11 such groups tasked to abduct DPR servicemen to later use them in fake reports about detention of Russian servicemen.

    Ukraine’s army has pulled three army units, more than 430 tanks, 132 multiple launch rocket systems and up to 830 artillery pieces and mortars to the line of engagement in Donbass, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on Sunday.

    "The Ukrainian group in sector C consists of up to 22 battalions, 130 tanks, 950 armoured personnel carriers, 290 artillery weapons and mortars, and up to 35 multiple launch rocket systems," the Donetsk News Agency quoted him as saying.

    Apart from that, he said, up to 26 battalions with 230 tanks and 75 multiple launch rocket systems have been concentrated in sector B. Up to 20 battalions, 75 tanks and 22 multiple launchers are deployed in sector M.

    "Over the day, Ukrainian troops have been building up weapons of a caliber more than 100mm along the line of contact in violation of the Minsk agreements the Ukrainian side put its signature under," Basurin said.

    He said deployment of so many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements evidenced Kiev’s preparations for a new phase of large-scale combat operations. "We call on the international community to take urgent measures to prevent inhumane and criminal plans of [Ukrainian President ] Pyotr Poroshenko to unleash a new spiral of combat operations and genocide in eastern Europe. It is not yet late to prevent a fire of a new war in Europe," Basurin stressed.

    Forget Minsk. That sounds like a very serious build up. Can the NAF defend against such large numbers?

    Up to 90,000, of which many don't want to fight, against 75,000 fighting for their homes, family, freedom and revenge.

    Isnt it something like for every combat soldier at the front there are 3 behind him? So its not like 90,000 are going all in.

    Ukraine should throw everything at them, strike as swiftly as possible in order to get the rebels on the ropes which may force the russians to go in. Real proof of regular russian units in decent numbers may provide a windfall for kiev in money and weapons.

    Is that the way kiev is thinking? i see it more likely that his army will be slaughtered again and the west still wont have the balls or desire to raise the stakes though.



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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:38 am

    Isnt it something like for every combat soldier at the front there are 3 behind him? So its not like 90,000 are going all in.

    Ukraine should throw everything at them, strike as swiftly as possible in order to get the rebels on the ropes which may force the russians to go in. Real proof of regular russian units in decent numbers may provide a windfall for kiev in money and weapons.

    Is that the way kiev is thinking? i see it more likely that his army will be slaughtered again and the west still wont have the balls or desire to raise the stakes though.



    This is the front line. Probably 66% are combat or combat support, not much tail here. The same applies to the NAF, very little support troops. Don't need it. On the downside about 20% of their total would be Community Self Defense militia. Old NAF volunteers from foreign countries, Cossack and Russia are making their way back into southern Russian in the hundreds if not thousands. The Ukrainians are already claiming that Russia has 50,000 troops in Donbas or just outside ready to go so that story is old. Really have never been convinced of regular Russian units in Ukraine but sure that regular soldiers have been and are. Northwind is also a factor, IMO they are ex-Russian military recruited, organized and trained around the border areas as a reserve force. In fact in at least two locations there are 1500 man camps.
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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:25 am

    This article suggests that there were 2,000 Russians in Donetsk and 2,000 in Lugansk last summer.

    https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://warfiles.ru/show-93700-kto-ostanovil-tankovye-kolony-hunty.html&usg=ALkJrhicnDmOWTocmXjxOE8t5aYqRFmnIQ
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    Post  kvs Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:40 am

    franco wrote:This article suggests that there were 2,000 Russians in Donetsk and 2,000 in Lugansk last summer.

    https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://warfiles.ru/show-93700-kto-ostanovil-tankovye-kolony-hunty.html&usg=ALkJrhicnDmOWTocmXjxOE8t5aYqRFmnIQ

    I find the discussion about Russian volunteers to be nonsense. Nobody was crying when the Qataris sent jihadis to Libya or the Pakistan sent
    jihadis to Afghanistan. Nobody in NATO is crying that all sorts of jihadis and tens of thousands of them are in Syria helping ISIS impose
    medieval toilet life on a once reasonably developed country.

    If there are 50,000 Russian volunteers including army men, then I will applaud them. I will also applaud Russia supplying
    these volunteers and the NAF with tanks, MANPADs, ammo, howitzers and anything else they need. Ideally Russia should
    have used its airforce to pound the Kiev regime butchers into dust, but there are other considerations.
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    Post  kvs Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:44 am

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 36 CMjAmf_UAAAAbwq

    It does indeed look like the Kiev regime wants to create some more cauldrons.
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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:52 am

    kvs wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 36 CMjAmf_UAAAAbwq

    It does indeed look like the Kiev regime wants to create some more cauldrons.



    I tried to post that but couldn't. The Lugansk people claim there is a 2 brigade attack coming down the highway from Severodonetsk heading towards Lugansk. The Seversky Donets river separates the eastern part of Lugansk between the NAF and UAF. This route would past thru checkpoints 29 and 31, which has been the scene of heavy fighting in the past.

    The strategy appears to be to cut off the major cities and surround them while heading for and seizing the border areas. They could then starve the cities into surrender.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:06 am

    Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:11 am

    Ideally, NAF should not allow Maidan to accumulate any army on the line of contact. Any tanks parked there should be immediately destroyed by ATGMs.
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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:11 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.

    Read my post above you. This map came from the Donetsk Republic. The Lugansk Republic is claiming a 2-brigade attack coming towards Lugansk City. So there will be 4 attacks in total.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:15 am

    franco wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.

    Read my post above you. This map came from the Donetsk Republic. The Lugansk Republic is claiming a 2-brigade attack coming towards Lugansk City. So there will be 4 attacks in total.

    Lugansk is the weaker side. I suspect the main Maidan offensive would be directed at Lugansk, taking the border, and surround Donetsk.
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    Post  Erk Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:16 am

    Rodinazombie wrote:Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.

    The western media is full of headlines the past week that say things like "Kiev sees signs of a military build-up by Russia and the rebels."

    So they are setting the western public expectation that it's ok for Kiev to launch an attack on Donbass in violation of the Minsk II agreement, because we have been telling people for the past couple of weeks about a fresh Russian buildupof course always pushing the "invasion" idea into the public "mind". It's very sad to see the media back this violence with propaganda cover stories.


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    Post  Rodinazombie Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:19 am

    franco wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.

    Read my post above you. This map came from the Donetsk Republic. The Lugansk Republic is claiming a 2-brigade attack coming towards Lugansk City. So there will be 4 attacks in total.

    My apologies, if this is correct, then unless the ukies can smash the defenders in a very short time (unlikely, given the manpower advantage is nowhere near 3-1) then i think we will see a few cauldrons forming up very quickly.
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:24 am

    Erk wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:Interesting that they arent going for lugansk, looks like they learnt some things from last time by overstretching themselves.

    I hope the lads have got plenty of seasoning though, cus theres going to be a lot of meat going into some new cauldrons if the ukies do go ahead with this.

    The western media is full of headlines the past week that say things like "Kiev sees signs of a military build-up by Russia and the rebels."

    So they are setting the western public expectation that it's ok for Kiev to launch an attack on Donbass in violation of the Minsk II agreement, because we have been telling people for the past couple of weeks about a fresh Russian buildupof course always pushing the "invasion" idea into the public "mind". It's very sad to see the media back this violence with propaganda cover stories.


    Flashy headlines will not save ukrops from getting slaughtered once they commit.

    And with each passing day Russia gives fewer and fewer fvcks about sanctions ( something I have been pointing out on MP.net since half a year ago).

    So, bring on the headlines, NAF will bring the pain... russia attack
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    Post  franco Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:39 am

    kvs wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 36 CMjAmf_UAAAAbwq

    To give you an overview of the NAF forces opposing these attacks will attempt to give the proper units to the best of my knowledge;

    - the two pronged attack out of Mariupol and to the north will go against the 7th NAF brigade backed by the Sparta battalion.
    - the big attack south of Donetsk city will be against the 6th NAF brigade
    - Donetsk city is defended by the 1st NAF brigade with the Somalia battalion in support.
    - the two pronged attack around Gorlovka surrounding and separating them from Donetsk will be against the 3rd NAF brigade.
    - the 5th NAF brigade is the reserve force

    In Lugansk,

    - 4th NAF brigade defends from Pervomaysk supported by the Ghost brigade in Alchevsk
    - 1st Cossack regiment covers the center out of Slavyanoserbsk
    - Lugansk city defended by the 2nd NAF brigade and supported by the Augusta battalion.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:47 am

    Ukraine fails to secure debt write-off at US talks

    http://www.rt.com/news/312509-ukraine-debt-talks-california/

    The country’s GDP is expected to shrink 9 percent this year, with annual inflation expected to jump to 46 percent, the IMF has warned. The debt will hit 95 percent of GDP this year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

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