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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:23 pm

    Khepesh wrote:I guess people have seen the attempt today by ukrops attempting to "proove" that T-90A were involved in the operations to hit the ukrops around Novoannovka last year. This article demolishes this and shows that what ukrops have said is T-90A, is in fact a Bulat, the type of tank that ukrops 1st Tank Brigade were using in that area.
    https://vk.com/id225150258?w=wall225150258_3143%2Fall

    Err the article however misses somethings, if those pictures are genuine, there's little possible chance those systems were BM's, because of chassis, and turret shape. So while the pictures present a platoon of T90's, we don't know where they were taken. IMO this explains many things regarding Luhansk carnage in Novoannovka. Take this the way you want.
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    Post  Khepesh Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:25 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:I guess people have seen the attempt today by ukrops attempting to "proove" that T-90A were involved in the operations to hit the ukrops around Novoannovka last year. This article demolishes this and shows that what ukrops have said is T-90A, is in fact a Bulat, the type of tank that ukrops 1st Tank Brigade were using in that area.
    https://vk.com/id225150258?w=wall225150258_3143%2Fall

    Err the article however misses somethings, if those pictures are genuine, there's little possible chance those systems were BM's, because of chassis, and turret shape. So while the pictures present a platoon of T90's, we don't know where they were taken. IMO this explains many things regarding Luhansk carnage in Novoannovka. Take this the way you want.
    Ukrops mixed all sorts of pictures up from different times and places, and I would take the position that T-90A are not in Donbass....
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:30 pm

    Khepesh wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:I guess people have seen the attempt today by ukrops attempting to "proove" that T-90A were involved in the operations to hit the ukrops around Novoannovka last year. This article demolishes this and shows that what ukrops have said is T-90A, is in fact a Bulat, the type of tank that ukrops 1st Tank Brigade were using in that area.
    https://vk.com/id225150258?w=wall225150258_3143%2Fall

    Err the article however misses somethings, if those pictures are genuine, there's little possible chance those systems were BM's, because of chassis, and turret shape. So while the pictures present a platoon of T90's, we don't know where they were taken. IMO this explains many things regarding Luhansk carnage in Novoannovka. Take this the way you want.
    Ukrops mixed all sorts of pictures up from different times and places

    As I said, there's no doubt this has to be checked out, but this also means that if the pictures are checked inside UA, the T90 was obviously an overmatch to every thing Ukropistanis had in the area. And you know better than me the kind of destruction there's around Novoannovka, over UA 40 hulks in a 5km perimetre.
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    Post  Khepesh Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:32 pm

    I'll put this here just in case it develops further, but probably not. МЧС have apparently advised in Elenovka to close windows due to ammonia. That's all, probably nothing, but from a source that does not do stuffing.

    Video from the area the map is centered on https://maps.yandex.ru/142/donetsk/?ll=37.743620%2C47.960526&z=18&l=map



    I think that's mostly it now for the night.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:47 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    This +1

    if he wants to use the war as a destraction then the best way to take away his destraction is by taking away his ability to fight it. Ie, complete destruction of his army, sadly that will ruffle feathers as the west will unite to back him against the 'russian invader' and russia will have to weather a storm, but once it stops poroshenkos head will be on a block. But all this is dependent on at what point russia forces NAF to sign up to minsk -3.
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    Post  Dforce Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:57 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    I would rather say that recent events shows quite clear that Ukraine goes to any length to provoke the peasants and workers militia to attack, I give you that.

    Well that's a start. Just so that you don't forget in the future who broke the ceasefire.

    When you say "broke" it I would answer that it was not there, but I agree that Ukraine have done more then its fair share of that "breaking". However, Ukraine will not attack, they have vay too much to win if the seps attacks first.
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    Post  Neutrality Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:57 pm

    Uh oh, what's up OSCE? Suddenly reporting the truth?



    "OSCE confirmed shelling of Gorlovka by Ukrainian army"

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:02 pm

    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    I would rather say that recent events shows quite clear that Ukraine goes to any length to provoke the peasants and workers militia to attack, I give you that.

    Well that's a start. Just so that you don't forget in the future who broke the ceasefire.

    When you say "broke" it I would answer that it was not there, but I agree that Ukraine have done more then its fair share of that "breaking". However, Ukraine will not attack, they have vay too much to win if the seps attacks first.

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.
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    Post  Dforce Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:07 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.

    Well I agree that the seps will not attack without Russian backing, but I also do not think that this backing will be the full power of the Russian forces. This is the Great Game played again, and Russia will not attacck full force since that will not lead to its desired goals.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:17 pm

    Dforce wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.

    Well I agree that the seps will not attack without Russian backing, but I also do not think that this backing will be the full power of the Russian forces. This is the Great Game played again, and Russia will not attacck full force since that will not lead to its desired goals.

    Once again, let's have this discussion.

    a. When did Russia attacked with its full force? NEVER.
    b. When was the last time Russia let any major Separatist action down? NEVER.
    c. When was the last time Ukraine paraded "new" hardware nearby the frontline without attempted attacks. Debaltsevo.
    d. The Great Game a specific term, regarding a specific region. The combination you were looking for was the "Long Game".
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    Post  kvs Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:27 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Uh oh, what's up OSCE? Suddenly reporting the truth?



    "OSCE confirmed shelling of Gorlovka by Ukrainian army"


    It only took them a few weeks to notice. But they sure notice NAF deployments fast even if they do not violate Minsk-II.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:28 pm

    Godric wrote:

    f*cking vermin, video brings back the level of the HaHol scum killing of civilians in cold blood .... how any so called civilised country can back Kiev is a mystery .... they have no shame

    It's no mystery. Please, stop believing that the West has a conscience because it does not. Donbass would be wise to kick the OSCE out and if they refuse to leave then declare them as enemy soldiers.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:29 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    I would rather say that recent events shows quite clear that Ukraine goes to any length to provoke the peasants and workers militia to attack, I give you that.

    Well that's a start. Just so that you don't forget in the future who broke the ceasefire.

    When you say "broke" it I would answer that it was not there, but I agree that Ukraine have done more then its fair share of that "breaking". However, Ukraine will not attack, they have vay too much to win if the seps attacks first.

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.

    In this case the CWN is entirely true, you'd have to be completely naive to believe that any major rebel action will start or stop now w/o the appropriate Russian order. They are completely dependent on Russia for supplies, intel, weapons, trade, diplomacy, political cover and Moscow has long installed its own people there who will follow their line (Zakharchenko et. all), while giving an exit route for the crazy soldiers of fortune such as Strelkov.

    During the last rebel offensive I remember that it was hinted that the Russian observers 'moved aside', allowing the rebels to advance.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:35 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Report on cassad that downtown Donetsk has been hit 15 minutes ago. He began the ticker again
    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2340017.html

    Donetsk a short time ago

    So after 15 months of this war the junta is still able to shell downtown Donetsk Sad
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:38 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    Cassad wrote:На ресурсах хунты сообщают с ссылкой на ОБСЕ, что в Донецк переброшены 11 РСЗО "Град" ВСН.

    Translation: Junta's sources report (quoting OSCE) that the NAF has positioned 11 "Grad" installations near Donetsk.

    Always nice to see the confirmation that OSCE is acting as a de facto spy organization. I think we've never been closer to resuming the war as today.

    EDIT: Judging by this map ( http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/42710/42710_original.jpg ) it'd be wise to completely destroy VSU's positions at Svetlodarsk. It's got a cauldron written all over it.

    Then why aren't those idiots in the NAF headquarters kicking the OSCE out? Why do they still allow their presence while de-facto recognizing them as spies working for Kiev?
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:40 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    I would rather say that recent events shows quite clear that Ukraine goes to any length to provoke the peasants and workers militia to attack, I give you that.

    Well that's a start. Just so that you don't forget in the future who broke the ceasefire.

    When you say "broke" it I would answer that it was not there, but I agree that Ukraine have done more then its fair share of that "breaking". However, Ukraine will not attack, they have vay too much to win if the seps attacks first.

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.

    In this case the CWN is entirely true, you'd have to be completely naive to believe that any major rebel action will start or stop now w/o the appropriate Russian order. They are completely dependent on Russia for supplies, intel, weapons, trade, diplomacy, political cover and Moscow has long installed its own people there who will follow their line (Zakharchenko et. all), while giving an exit route for the crazy soldiers of fortune such as Strelkov.

    During the last rebel offensive I remember that it was hinted that the Russian observers 'moved aside', allowing the rebels to advance.

    I'm not naive, I asked something to obtain a certain answer. SO...once again, what would have Ukraine to gain from having Russia going in offense? Less capabilities to defend itself? Why would Russia get the West vote more sanctions against itself, while the current situation slowly but surely decays Ukraine's capabilities to resist the current economic downturn. Why pull a shot in the arm to Ukropistan?

    So as highlighted by the current OSCE report, Ukraine has everything to win by provoking an attack? Say it is so, I got this bridge in Patras to sell,
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:41 pm

    Neutrality wrote:The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it.
    Not going to happen because every military defeat for Ukraine means more sanctions for Russia.

    Civilians lives are meaningless in this war. Kiev can kill as many civilians as it wants without sanctions thrown at them. The only thing prohibited is military victories for the NAF.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:47 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it.
    Not going to happen because every military defeat for Ukraine means more sanctions for Russia.

    Civilians lives are meaningless in this war. Kiev can kill as many civilians as it wants without sanctions thrown at them. The only thing prohibited is military victories for the NAF.

    Let's recall Debaltsevo...
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    Post  Dforce Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:56 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Let's recall Debaltsevo...

    Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it happened just after the Minsk II deal.

    The same conditions are not there now.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:01 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Report on cassad that downtown Donetsk has been hit 15 minutes ago. He began the ticker again
    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2340017.html

    Donetsk a short time ago

    So after 15 months of this war the junta is still able to shell downtown Donetsk Sad

    Strange war. Seems to be in limbo. There is no negotiation, no ground offensive to take territory. Looks like time has stopped in Donetsk. Which, as you know, is exactly what a frozen conflict is about. Every day Donetsk is shelled. Every day people die. No one says a word about it. I don't expect this situation to change this year or the next. What is sure is come January 2017 the US will supply artillery and ammo to Maidan and the shelling will be much more intense than now when Maidan has limited shells to fire on Donetsk.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:07 pm

    Dforce wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Let's recall Debaltsevo...

    Yes, even I have to admit that was a brilliant Russian move. But it only worked because it was a done deal fast, and it  happened just after the Minsk II deal.

    The same conditions are not there now.

    Deal done fast? It took Almost two months to react to idiotic probe attacks from Ukropia at Donetsk Intl and break the wedge at Debalstevo. Are you guys following the same war as I or is this senile amnesia?

    The conditions now are even better, Ukraine is shelling civilians and international organizations just reported in the simplest terms Ukraine's breach of Minsk agreement.
    Idiot Turchynov goes on the Line of Contact parading in front of heavy weaponry that's supposed to be some 30 km out of there.

    ... Not really ideal conditions for an innocent self-defense scheme...

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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:09 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Dforce wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Recent developments show quite clearly that Poroshenko wants the war to resume because the economic collapse, thus the regime with it, is inescapable. So he decided that restarting the war and blaming it on the NAF will be a good argument when that happens. The only logical course of action here, in my eyes, is to go for complete, quick and utter annihilation of the Ukrainian army and what's left of it. This will create the exact opposite of what Poroshenko wants. A collapsing economy in that case, will be the least of his worries. People will be demanding the heads of the responsibles, maybe even literally.

    I would rather say that recent events shows quite clear that Ukraine goes to any length to provoke the peasants and workers militia to attack, I give you that.

    Well that's a start. Just so that you don't forget in the future who broke the ceasefire.

    When you say "broke" it I would answer that it was not there, but I agree that Ukraine have done more then its fair share of that "breaking". However, Ukraine will not attack, they have vay too much to win if the seps attacks first.

    What do they have to win? If we are to believe the Current Western Narrative (CWN), Seps don't attack without Russian order...and thus Russian backing. So by any mean, any Separatist attack means smoldering Ukrainian hulks. If this is your "Uncle" battle, then I'm afraid you need to review your assessment of Ukraine's priorities.

    In this case the CWN is entirely true, you'd have to be completely naive to believe that any major rebel action will start or stop now w/o the appropriate Russian order. They are completely dependent on Russia for supplies, intel, weapons, trade, diplomacy, political cover and Moscow has long installed its own people there who will follow their line (Zakharchenko et. all), while giving an exit route for the crazy soldiers of fortune such as Strelkov.

    During the last rebel offensive I remember that it was hinted that the Russian observers 'moved aside', allowing the rebels to advance.


    That's true, they did.

    That's a lot of shelling being done by Ukraine Armed Forces.

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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:10 pm

    As for Debaltsevo, Pushilin said no election will be held there because it's technically Maidan territory because Minsk 2 was signed before Maidan withdrew from Debaltsevo. As for what happens only time will tell.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:11 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Report on cassad that downtown Donetsk has been hit 15 minutes ago. He began the ticker again
    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2340017.html

    Donetsk a short time ago

    So after 15 months of this war the junta is still able to shell downtown Donetsk Sad

    Strange war. Seems to be in limbo. There is no negotiation, no ground offensive to take territory. Looks like time has stopped in Donetsk. Which, as you know, is exactly what a frozen conflict is about. Every day Donetsk is shelled. Every day people die. No one says a word about it. I don't expect this situation to change this year or the next. What is sure is come January 2017 the US will supply artillery and ammo to Maidan and the shelling will be much more intense than now when Maidan has limited shells to fire on Donetsk.

    Yeah, it is better to stop caring about Donbass civilians. It does no good and just gets your blood pressure up.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:14 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Yeah, it is better to stop caring about Donbass civilians. It does no good and just gets your blood pressure up.

    You and I are not ethnic Russians, so why should this war have anything to do with our blood pressures? geek

    We have our western way of fighting war, shock and awe, an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. Em Russians have their eastern way of fighting war, a way we can never understand. Let them fight their way and stop worrying about it. Razz


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