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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    auslander
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    Post  auslander Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:39 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

    All the indications, both public and not public, indicate an offense in the making. We'll know in anything from a few hours to days if it occurs. As you well know a 'stand to' is prudent at this time.
    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:47 pm

    auslander wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

    All the indications, both public and not public, indicate an offense in the making. We'll know in anything from a few hours to days if it occurs. As you well know a 'stand to' is prudent at this time.

    But with what? So far so the VSU hasn't even completed it's replenishing. The word out there is that at best the VSU is at 60% of what it was in July-August. Tha would be madness for them to try anything of the kind.

    This is suicide by Russia.
    Khepesh
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:02 pm

    This is just what I am seeing now, not my opinion....
    Novorossiya News advise all residents of urban areas to get back home by 1900 (it's now 2100 btw) due to possibility of imminent attack. There were already reports of fighting at Spartak, hardly unusual, and the airport, and now there is some news, totaly unverified, of fighting at the Metro supermarket, if so, not good. But this may all be stuffing and probably is. But does not a VSN offensive first require a ukrops offensive. Could be from Sunday a dangerous game of chicken to see who moves aside first, don't know....
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:15 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:Tho it has not been posted here I presume people are aware of this on cassad -  "The DNR declared an alarm. All units are prepared for full scale offensive by ATO." etc etc http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/16232-v-dnr-obyavlena-boevaya-trevoga.html  A little alarmist and I don't think it's popcorn time just yet. We remember what we saw on the roads last year and that which is not shown this year, for obvious reasons. No video, no documentary evidence, but last night the roads were creaking under the weight, and that is why I advised to get the popcorn.

    All the indications, both public and not public, indicate an offense in the making. We'll know in anything from a few hours to days if it occurs. As you well know a 'stand to' is prudent at this time.

    But with what? So far so the VSU hasn't even completed it's replenishing. The word out there is that at best the VSU is at 60% of what it was in July-August. Tha would be madness for them to try anything of the kind.

    This is suicide by Russia.

    All this noise and bombardments, however savage and difficult for the civilians, is mostly a sleight of hand. I mentioned not long ago that I'm not concerned with what the hand I can see is doing, I'm concerned what the hand I can't see and everyone seems to be ignoring is doing. The orcs have been steadily reinforcing and accumulating vast amounts of supply over the last four months. With heavy movements of vehicles and soldiers to near or at the front the indication is these are preparatory movements to contact.

    DNR/LNR are not the only ones going to heightened alert. Remember, we can hear Belbek very well from our digs, we are not blind to what is happening on the local roads and we can see the harbor day and night.

    It's going to be a very long night.
    Khepesh
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:29 pm

    To ammend about Metro, it was shelled but no combat there.
    Ispan
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    Post  Ispan Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:03 pm

    auslander wrote:
    DNR/LNR are not the only ones going to heightened alert. Remember, we can hear Belbek very well from our digs, we are not blind to what is happening on the local roads and we can see the harbor day and night.

    It's going to be a very long night.  

    On that, we went outside for a walk on the seaside at Primorski, Feodosiya, and everybody was startled by the noise of jet engines. Everybody looked up and saw a pair of Sukhoi 27  flying at a few hundred meters altitude  below the cloud ceiling. Heading north. I asked my wife's and her mom said that they haven't ever heard a jet around these parts and that's why everybody was looking, Mi 8 helicopters yes, on occasion. But jets never before.

    If in this God forsaken sleepy village we see activity, I imagine Sevastopol must be like a beehive.

    For those of you that know Russian, more signs of the offensive preparations

    http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201508121608-3iqx.htm

    rough google translationin english of key points:


    Kharkov train station. Observed hundreds of military backpacks.

    In the industrial zone of Novoaydar, locals noticed concealed military vehicles. From there towards Schastye observed about 30 tanks and 2 BM-21 rocket launchers. Also observed arrival of replacement recruits and an increase of new equipmente.

    Gnutova village, near Donetsk, 14 cannon D-30 and AT guns Rapira. Passing through the village trucks loaded with infantry , vans and ambulances. Locals prepare cellars as refuge against bombardment.

    Through Druzhovku 12 August 05:00 drove a column of tanks, 2 columns of light armor, howitzers, and many fuel trucks. One hour later a column of tanks crossed in the same way.

    In Alekseevka there was a sighting of the dreaded Baltic women snipers.  Rolling Eyes



    WAR REPORT, manpads, strelas at ready for ukie aviation

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 CMON6lqWIAAr6Ra

    ukranian losses

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 CMOO-BzWEAAqOLu
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    Post  Guest Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:06 pm

    Ispan wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    DNR/LNR are not the only ones going to heightened alert. Remember, we can hear Belbek very well from our digs, we are not blind to what is happening on the local roads and we can see the harbor day and night.

    It's going to be a very long night.  

    On that, we went outside for a walk on the seaside at Primorski, Feodosiya, and everybody was startled by the noise of jet engines. Everybody looked up and saw a pair of Sukhoi 27  flying at a few hundred meters altitude  below the cloud ceiling. Heading north. I asked my wife's and her mom said that they haven't ever heard a jet around these parts and that's why everybody was looking, Mi 8 helicopters yes, on occasion. But jets never before.

    If in this God forsaken sleepy village we see activity, I imagine Sevastopol must be like a beehive.

    For those of you that know Russian, more signs of the offensive preparations

    http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201508121608-3iqx.htm

    rough google translationin english of key points:


    Kharkov train station. Observed hundreds of military backpacks.

    In the industrial zone of Novoaydar, locals noticed concealed military vehicles. From there towards Schastye observed about 30 tanks and 2 BM-21 rocket launchers. Also observed arrival of replacement recruits and an increase of new equipmente.

    Gnutova village, near Donetsk, 14 cannon D-30 and AT guns Rapira. Passing through the village trucks loaded with infantry , vans and ambulances. Locals prepare cellars as refuge against bombardment.

    Through Druzhovku 12 August 05:00 drove a column of tanks, 2 columns of light armor, howitzers, and many fuel trucks. One hour later a column of tanks crossed in the same way.

    In Alekseevka there was a sighting of the dreaded Baltic women snipers.  Rolling Eyes



    WAR REPORT, manpads, strelas at ready for ukie aviation

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 CMON6lqWIAAr6Ra

    ukranian losses

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 CMOO-BzWEAAqOLu
    Military units in mainland Russia close to the border are also very busy. Hard to come in contact with serving family members as far away as Lipetsk right now. Something is definitely up...
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:37 pm


    MSM seem quiet, but I expect that to change.

    Kiev really has no other options than to go for hail Mary pass. Money is gone, debts are in, coal is no more, winter is around the corner and public in the west are tired of this whole story especially since they all realised that it will be them who will pay for Ukraine for decades to come.

    UAF will get slaughtered but I guess most of them are still in denial. Their are just as useful to Kiev dead in the off chance that Porky gets some pittance based on their demise.

    Civilians should hit the basements or run like hell. I hope NAF are locked and loaded. If this is it then they better be ready for some heavy lifting soon.




    In the meantime, some last minute cleanup:

    ''49 minutes ago
    #Ukrainian politician & businessman #Eremeev, main competitor of oligarch @IgorKolomoysky, died from major head trauma. #BusinessAsUsual''

    https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/631534184029274112?lang=en
    Khepesh
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:50 pm

    Instructions have been issued with all the emergency contact information, were in the districts to go for emergency medical supplies, what basic medical supplies everybody should by now have anyway, dressings etc. Also instructions on how to tape up windows on the outside and inside and what to do when you come under bombardment. People already know to take cover, lie flat on the ground etc, but these new instructions advise that the entrance doors to appartment blocks and buildings be left unlocked so if a sudden bombardment occurs people on the streets can know they can, if there is time, rush into any building and get in the basement. I think this is more for air attack were there should be a little advance warning than for artillery which is suddenly falling.

    Earlier the lights were switched off in parts of Mariupol, perhaps to better see the meteor shower, or not....

    Offtop, but the Moskva on fire, like a mini nuke in China, and all the other shit. It's the end of the world, were are all doomed Twisted Evil
    auslander
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    Post  auslander Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:12 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Instructions have been issued with all the emergency contact information, were in the districts to go for emergency medical supplies, what basic medical supplies everybody should by now have anyway, dressings etc. Also instructions on how to tape up windows on the outside and inside and what to do when you come under bombardment. People already know to take cover, lie flat on the ground etc, but these new instructions advise that the entrance doors to appartment blocks and buildings be left unlocked so if a sudden bombardment occurs people on the streets can know they can, if there is time, rush into any building and get in the basement. I think this is more for air attack were there should be a little advance warning than for artillery which is suddenly falling.

    Earlier the lights were switched off in parts of Mariupol, perhaps to better see the meteor shower, or not....

    Offtop, but the Moskva on fire, like a mini nuke in China, and all the other shit. It's the end of the world, were are all doomed Twisted Evil

    Whatever is going on it's got DNR/LNR not spooked but definitely telling the populace how it is and what to do. No real time commo with up north for the last hour but before that our contacts said no doubt it's coming, but then their field of view is limited. They said our boys are serious as can be, no joking, no fooling around, all are deadly serious and armed to the teeth. If it comes to what it looks like I doubt this time when Merkel and Golland run to Mockba they will get nothing but short shrift. Twice they saved the orcs, this, the third time, there will be no saving them.


    Last edited by auslander on Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Guest Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:19 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    MSM seem quiet, but I expect that to change.

    Kiev really has no other options than to go for hail Mary pass. Money is gone, debts are in, coal is no more, winter is around the corner and public in the west are tired of this whole story especially since they all realised that it will be them who will pay for Ukraine for decades to come.

    UAF will get slaughtered but I guess most of them are still in denial. Their are just as useful to Kiev dead in the off chance that Porky gets some pittance based on their demise.

    Civilians should hit the basements or run like hell.  I hope NAF are locked and loaded. If this is it then they better be ready for some heavy lifting soon.




    In the meantime, some last minute cleanup:

    ''49 minutes ago
    #Ukrainian politician & businessman #Eremeev, main competitor of oligarch @IgorKolomoysky, died from major head trauma. #BusinessAsUsual''


    https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/631534184029274112?lang=en
    Huge news if true... I haven't seen anything else about it yet though. Looks like Poroshenko and Co. are holing down, good indicator of what is about to go down.
    ExBeobachter1987
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:37 pm

    auslander wrote:If it comes to what it looks like I doubt this time when Merkel and Golland run to Mockba they will get anything but short shrift. Twice they saved the orcs, this, the third time, there will be no saving them.

    I pray that you are right, but I expect that there will be more face saving for the Europeans.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:48 pm

    http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/breaking-donetsk-under-massive.html

    Ukrainian occupational forces shelling Donetsk.

    Around 18:00 from the direction of Pesok, UAF are massively bombarding October (Oktyabrskiy) suburb with artillery cannons. Fires are raging.

    Direction: airport, Metro - firefight supported by UAF artillery. In Oktyabrskiy fires are observed. The head of the Kubyshev district of Donetsk, Ivan Prikhodko reported to “Russian Spring” about hits on apartment houses and civilian deaths:

    “Starting from 18:00 and ongoing:  Timura street 19 - direct hit, Vasilchenko street 34, 35, 37 - several homes are on fire, Luzina street, house 6, apartment 15 - direct hit on the fifth floor, Timura street - hit on the outdoor kitchen followed by fire, Kremlevskiy prospect 9 - one woman injured, one killed (Galina Sklyarova), Krasnoznamennaya street 41 - man injured.” He confirmed that such information was from 19:00.


    Also

    August 12, Deputy Commander of the corps MOE DND Eduard Bacurin made an emergency statement: “Forces seeking to destabilize the situation in the Republic, has disseminated information on the enforcement units of the Armed Forces of the Donetsk people's Republic, allegedly, the highest degree of combat readiness. Also there are rumours about a possible airstrike by Ukrainian forces. I bring to your attention that this information is false and untrue. Currently part of the Armed Forces of the Donetsk people's Republic engaged in planned combat training. To the provocation of the Ukrainian security forces do not react. We fully comply with the Minsk agreements, as well as proposing the necessary efforts to maintain peace and stability in the Republic”,

    http://dnr-online.ru/news/ekstrennoe-zayavlenie-ministerstva-oborony-dnr-ot-12-avgusta-2015/


    Last edited by JohninMK on Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:50 pm

    JohninMK wrote:http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/breaking-donetsk-under-massive.html

    Ukrainian occupational forces shelling Donetsk.

    Around 18:00 from the direction of Pesok, UAF are massively bombarding October (Oktyabrskiy) suburb with artillery cannons. Fires are raging.

    Direction: airport, Metro - firefight supported by UAF artillery. In Oktyabrskiy fires are observed.

    The head of the Kubyshev district of Donetsk, Ivan Prikhodko reported to “Russian Spring” about hits on apartment houses and civilian deaths:

    “Starting from 18:00 and ongoing:  Timura street 19 - direct hit, Vasilchenko street 34, 35, 37 - several homes are on fire, Luzina street, house 6, apartment 15 - direct hit on the fifth floor, Timura street - hit on the outdoor kitchen followed by fire, Kremlevskiy prospect 9 - one woman injured, one killed (Galina Sklyarova), Krasnoznamennaya street 41 - man injured.” He confirmed that such information was from 19:00.

    In a preparatory barrage, the aim is to shell the enemy's defensive positions, not civilians.

    But I guess the Ukrs just couldn't resist getting in a little terror and murder. Nazis will be Nazis I guess.
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    Post  Rodinazombie Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:22 pm

    Im seeing reports that fighting has started in avdeevka and spread along the whole line of contact.  It began with a large artillery barrage before the attacks began. This report was at 01:11 local time, so 22:11 UK time here. Id urge caution with this as its just a report on vkontakte so we need to wait for further confirmation. Usually i dont report stuff from social media as most of it is junk, but in the current climate we can fully expect it to start at any moment.

    For the record, I still doubt that the ukies will attack, but i hope im wrong and that they are stupid enough to try it.

    Here is gorlovka at 23:20 local time:

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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:24 pm

    military maps are showing that ukrops troops are at Stilo, which is serious if true, but reports in the background are suggesting this is an assault towards Starobeshevo. I think this is stuffing, but mention it because of a remarkable similarity to the attack on Elenovka in January which at first seemed very minor, and not believed, and it was not clear what was happening for several hours. If this is an attack, then I suspect these ukrops are chaff being thrown out for some devious purpose .
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    Post  Rodinazombie Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:28 pm

    Heres the full report from vkontakte

    Vkontakte wrote:"VSU launched an attack across the front line. The fighting goes across the front line. The main areas of clashes are Volnovaha, Lugansk, Mariupol, Avdeevka, Yasinovataya and Gorlovka. MAT launched an attack around 18:00. The first clash occurred in Adveevke. The fighting began immediately, using heavy artillery, small arms and large. The siloviki are not particularly aim, as under fire hit Kiev region of Donetsk. The shells lay on the street Vasil, Timur and Kurchatov. Are fixed entering the houses. It is also one of the shells flew up to Makeyevka, falling on the street Metallurgical.

    The enemy continues to pull forces to the area Starognatovki. Exploration DNI fixed columns promotion APU toward White Kamenka, after which it was dealt artillery strike. At security forces heavy losses. About two dozen guns moved from Mariupol to Sahanku and October. At the same time strengthen their own positions VSU in the area Kurakhovo. It seems that the enemy fears the army troops break the NPT, which has once again defeated the security forces in the district of Donetsk airport for Marinka.

    Less than an hour ago, we were attacked settlements and Spartak Yasinovataya. The shelling was carried out by the artillery krupnostvolnoy Avdeevka. About 20 minutes ago from Avdeevka also came under fire district Putilovki shell hit the house at Grove Street Putilovskaya 12.

    At the moment, the militia emerged a meet Ukrainian troops from the settlement in October. Fights were fastened under Gnutova and Pavlopolem. DNR Army launched a counterattack at Gorlovka Avdeevka. Retreating, the VSU is applied randomly shelling residential areas Avdeevka. Locals report about arriving in Chervonogvardeyku.

    On the territory of the LC are fighting in the village of Lugansk and Popasnaya. Both sides are actively used all kinds of weapons.

    Just under a flared Chillmere and granite. Militia managed to take control of the height of 209.6. Shelling continues to suffer Gorlovka.

    Thus, the fighting intensified across the front line, which indicates that the VSU transferred to the active phase of the offensive. "

    If you understand russian, follow the link and get live updates to the situation

    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2335394.html


    Last edited by Rodinazombie on Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:29 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:Im seeing reports that fighting has started in avdeevka and spread along the whole line of contact.  It began with a large artillery barrage before the attacks began. This report was at 01:11 local time, so 22:11 UK time here. Id urge caution with this as its just a report on vkontakte so we need to wait for further confirmation. Usually i dont report stuff from social media as most of it is junk, but in the current climate we can fully expect it to start at any moment.

    For the record, I still doubt that the ukies will attack, but i hope im wrong and that they are stupid enough to try it.

    Here is gorlovka at 23:20 local time:

    Gorlovka is in fact saying that apart from being hit by 152mm in the city they think they are being hit by "Pion" due to the force of the explosions. But not in the city, on were VSN positions are. Noise sounds louder at night so it's not certain.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:31 pm

    And then there is this.


    Kiev gov.-  must be frustrated to the absolute maximum.


    Donetsk republic does not rule out resumption of full-scale military actions in Donbas
    World
    August 12, 16:57 UTC+3
    The self-proclaimed Donetsk republic registers from 60 to 80 shellings a day, while during full-scale military actions it is 150-180 times per day

    http://tass.ru/en/world/814029

    MOSCOW, August 12. /TASS/. Return to full-scale military action may happen at any time since the number of shellings by Ukrainian forces already stands at 60-80 times per day, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) envoy to Contact Group Denis Pushilin told a roundtable in TASS on Wednesday.

    "The number of shellings during full-scale military actions is 150-180 times per day, with the average number of shellings during the main time fluctuating from 10 to 30 times," Pushilin said. "Now we register from 60 to 80 shellings per day. The situation is as follows: full-scale military actions can be resumed at any moment."

    "Going from 60 to 150 shellings can happen in a few hours. These concerns are strengthened by military equipment drawn to the contact line by Ukrainian forces, as well as by shellings of residential areas," the envoy noted. "Along with that, we see that Kiev does not officially withdraw from Minsk-2. Kiev probably understands as well that if Minsk-2 ceases to exist, then the only alternative is war," he concluded.


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    Post  Chersonesus Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:31 pm

    Ukraine Independence Day is on 24 August. I suspect the military parade will be pretty thin this year. Maybe Porky is hoping for some good news from one final massive push before Ukraine ccollapses in on itself.

    ATO wounded are being taken as far as Odessa for treatment. I wonder how much spare capacity the Ukrop medical system has.
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:33 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:Heres the full report from vkontakte
    The fighting at Stanitsa Luganskaya is confirmed
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    Post  Rodinazombie Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:33 pm

    According to the live feed above, the OSCE mission is planning to leave donetsk city at 6am, we all know that rats flee when it gets too hot, so if true this may well be an indicator of things to come if their withdrawal isnt something that was pre-planned.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:35 pm

    Chersonesus wrote:Ukraine Independence Day is on 24 August. I suspect the military parade will be pretty thin this year. Maybe Porky is hoping for some good news from one final massive push before Ukraine ccollapses in on itself.

    ATO wounded are being taken as far as Odessa for treatment. I wonder how much spare capacity the Ukrop medical system has.
    Military parade was cancelled. Probably if Ukraine still exists by then it will be a parade of mental defectives wearing embroidered shirts and waving EU and US flags and singing the Horst Wessel....
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    Post  Khepesh Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:37 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:According to the live feed above, the OSCE mission is planning to leave donetsk city at 6am, we all know that rats flee when it gets too hot, so if true this may well be an indicator of things to come if their withdrawal isnt something that was pre-planned.
    That went fast. I had heard that they were going to leave by the 18th but thought it was some BS. good riddance to them
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #19 - Page 19 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

    Post  Rodinazombie Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:39 pm

    Khepesh wrote:
    Chersonesus wrote:Ukraine Independence Day is on 24 August. I suspect the military parade will be pretty thin this year. Maybe Porky is hoping for some good news from one final massive push before Ukraine ccollapses in on itself.

    ATO wounded are being taken as far as Odessa for treatment. I wonder how much spare capacity the Ukrop medical system has.
    Military parade was cancelled. Probably if Ukraine still exists by then it will be a parade of mental defectives wearing embroidered shirts and waving EU and US flags and singing the Horst Wessel....

    Khepesh, have you seen this video before or is it fresh?

    Reportedly its grads being used outside donetsk, unsure whose exactly as it just says под донецком.


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