There is an interesting sequence of news that is interesting to read together. I readed time ago the first, and I was finding the second but unsuccessfully until now, despite it is from a little before to begin this topic. Reading all them together it is easier to have a better understanding of what is being done for the replacement of the Be-12, the Il-38 and (maybe) the Tu-142.
The first new, the declaration of June 2015 about a decission to be made in the short term (then) about a platform to be elected to replace the current fleet of Anti-Submarine Aircrafts:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2Fdefense_safety%2F20150630%2F1103958839.html
aircraft IL-38 and IL-20 will be put up to 2020
11:06 30/06/2015 (updated 11:08 30.06.2015)
Противолодочный самолет Ил-38. Архивное фото
© RIA Novosti. Vitaly Ankov Go to the photo bank
Unified platform, created to replace the IL-38, as well as other anti-aircraft type will be completely new and will replace all existing naval aviation park patrol cars, said the head of the Naval Aviation Russian Major-General Igor Kozhin.
Zhukovsky (Moscow region)., June 30 - RIA Novosti The new unified platform to replace the aircraft IL-38 and IL-20 in the interest of the Russian Navy Naval Aviation will be introduced until 2020, told reporters on Tuesday the head of the Naval Aviation Russian Major-General Igor. Kozhin.
"The platform is now selected by 2020 it will be introduced, will be the general structure." - Kozhin said, answering journalists' questions about the timing of input of the new platform.
According to the chief of naval aviation, unified platform, created to replace the IL-38, as well as other anti-aircraft type will be completely new and will replace all existing naval aviation park patrol cars.
"This is a new, modern car that many issues will surpass foreign analogues Now we evaluate the possibility of building on it." - Kozhin said, answering journalists' questions about the main characteristics of the new platform, which should enter into operation in 2020.
The second new, the new of July 2015 announcing which platform has been selected:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2Fdefense_safety%2F20150717%2F1134034092.html&sandbox=1
Source: Russian Navy intends to 2020 to buy the planes on the basis of the Be-200
14:47 17/07/2015 (updated 14:49 07.17.2015)
Самолет Бе-200. Архивное фото
© RIA Novosti. Sergey Levanenkov
Fleet Command made a decision to purchase up to 2020 on the basis of hydroplanes Be-200 to search, detect and destroy submarines, said a senior official of the Russian Navy.
MOSCOW, July 17 -. RIA Novosti Command of the Navy until 2020, it intends to order the game industry such as hydroplanes Be-200 to detect and destroy submarines, told RIA Novosti on Friday, a senior official of the Russian Navy.
In Russia on July 17 is the day of naval aviation of the Navy.
"Command of the Navy decided to purchase necessary to 2020 on the basis of hydroplanes Be-200 to search, detect and destroy submarines," - a spokesman said.
He recalled that at the present time as part of the Navy Naval Aviation are hydroplanes Be-12, which service life is coming to an end. The new aircraft Be-12 is no longer produced.
The structure of Naval Aviation of the Russian Navy includes deck, anti-submarine, military transport and assault aircraft.
Day Sea Russian Navy aviation's celebrated on the day when the Russian pilots were victorious in a dogfight over the Baltic Sea during the First World War - 17 July 1916 four hydroplane M-9 aircraft carrier vessel "eagle" of the Baltic fleet rose into the air and clashed with four German planes.
And finally, a related new of March 2016 showing what is after the word platform in the news about the replacement of the current fleet of maritime patrol aircrafts:
https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=3&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20160303/1383612879.html
ASW seaplanes A-40 will replace the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the legacy BE-12
12:29 03/03/2016 (updated: 03.03.2016 12:39)
Самолет-амфибия А-40 (Альбатрос). Архивное фото
© RIA Novosti. Roman Denisov Go to the photo bank
Full update Naval Aviation Russian Black Sea Fleet of the park will be completed by 2020, said BSF MA Colonel Gennady Zagonov.
SEVASTOPOL, March 3 -. RIA News New anti seaplanes A-40 "Albatros" will replace the amphibious aircraft Be-12 in the framework of the Black Sea Fleet of complete renewal of the Naval Aviation (MA BSF) Russia in 2020, told reporters on Thursday the chief MA BSF Colonel Gennady Zagonov.
"Amphibious aircraft Be-12 will be replaced by modern anti-aircraft A-40 by 2020", - he said.
Multipurpose amphibian A-40 "Albatross" (Be-42, a product "B", according to NATO codification: Mermaid) - Soviet multipurpose amphibious aircraft was planned to replace the Be-12. The project was halted after the Soviet Union collapsed, then repeatedly declared to resume production.
Taking into account that the Be-200 (of 37900Kg of Takeoff Weight and 2100Km of range), is based on the Be A-40 (of 86000Kg of Takeoff Weight and 4100Km of Range), we begin to see the true sense of the word platform here.
Also taking into account that 6 Be-200 were ordered in 2013 and seems to be for combat roles, this is what I can understand from all this:
1.- The family formed by the Be A-40 and the Be-200 has been selected to replace the Be-12 and the Il-38. The Tu-204/214 and the Il-114 will not be used for the maritime patrol role. Both seems rejected.
2.- While is not well reflected in the news, the Be-200 has the size of the Be-12 and the Be A-40 is a little bigger than the Il-38/20/22. These would be the logical replacements if there are new orders for both.
3.- The work on this is far more advanced than expected. The replacement of both aircrafts will begin before the end of the decade, and the replacement of the Be-12 can be finished by the end of the decade.
4.- The effort on design will be low. The Be-200 is an aircraft in production and the Be A-40 would be in production before 2020.
5.- With the unmanned technologies coming, there is some risk for these aircrafts to become obsolete early in their life cycle. To take a traditional manned aircraft as solution for the future maritime patrol requires to have the new aircrafts as fast as possible, and to keep low the costs of design and development. This solution seems to do it.
6.- Thinking about it, a seaplane can have advange on range over other types of aircrafts if it is possible to refuel them from ships. It can make another way of "shipborne" maritime patrol, where the range begins to count from the ship.
In overall terms this solution seems to maximize the features for manned aircrafts done according to the old mold,