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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    ExBeobachter1987
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:11 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:More liberal than Yeltsin, Gaidar and Nemtsov?

    Yes. Yeltsin fought Moldova and deployed peacekeepers to Transnistria.

    You are confusing him with Lebed.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:15 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:More liberal than Yeltsin, Gaidar and Nemtsov?

    Yes. Yeltsin fought Moldova and deployed peacekeepers to Transnistria.
    1992 was a different time than 2015. NATO was not at Russia's borders  then and Russia could act more "freely". Put Yeltsin in power in 2014 and he would have done nothing in Crimea or in 2008 in South Ossetia. In 1992 Russia had more "authority" to act in the FSU than it does now.

    In 2015, if Russia even rises a finger there will be a hell storm in the West and instantly more sanctions. I can't remember how the West reacted about Russia's intervention in Transnistria (I was too young in 1992 to remember) but I'm sure it was nothing compared to their reaction for Crimea.

    Anyway, I don't still see this as an excuse not to act in Donbass. But the price would be a lot higher for Russia in 2015 than it would have been in 1992.
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    Post  Regular Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:18 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    My guess it that the problem with Donbass is that Putin does not see them as Russians and does not see protecting Donbass as a vital security interest for Russia.
    But they are not Russian citizens. Simples.

    Neither were the Crimeans until last year.
    Some of them were. The ones who made it happen and kept orcs away
    I think deep down you know that Russia did what it did in Crimea to protect its navy and military presence in Black Sea.

    If Donbass had similar strategic value for Russia then Putin would have done the same thing there.

    Deep down?
    I said this plenty of times.
    Look at the wars Russia fought in Crimea. How many battles were fought there. Strategic value of Crimea is still relevant today.
    Don't forget about size of Crimea, it's pretty small. Donbas is big, populated and have industry Russia would need to subsidise - coal.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:18 pm

    I guess my point is that in 1992 the West accepted the FSU as Russia's sphere of influence but in 2015 the West sees the FSU as its own sphere of influence and will not accept any military action from Russia outside of its borders.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:20 pm

    Regular wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    My guess it that the problem with Donbass is that Putin does not see them as Russians and does not see protecting Donbass as a vital security interest for Russia.
    But they are not Russian citizens. Simples.

    Neither were the Crimeans until last year.
    Some of them were. The ones who made it happen and kept orcs away
    I think deep down you know that Russia did what it did in Crimea to protect its navy and military presence in Black Sea.

    If Donbass had similar strategic value for Russia then Putin would have done the same thing there.

    Deep down?
    I said this plenty of times.
    Look at the wars Russia fought in Crimea. How many battles were fought there. Strategic value of Crimea is still relevant today.
    Don't forget about size of Crimea, it's pretty small. Donbas is big, populated and have industry Russia would need to subsidise - coal.

    Yeah, this is what I basically said before. Crimea has real strategic value for Russia while Russia thinks that Donbass does not. This is the biggest factor here.
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    Post  Regular Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:27 pm

    Think about pensions Russia would have to pay. For people who never paid taxes to Russia. Sheesh. Knowing that Eastern Ukraine has aging population thats pretty scary.
    Crimeans are lucky that Russia takes care of them like it does now. They have peace, bigger pensions, their region is being developed. Hell yeah if this is occupation, then please occupy me.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:36 pm

    Regular wrote:Think about pensions Russia would have to pay. For people who never paid taxes to Russia. Sheesh. Knowing that Eastern Ukraine has aging population thats pretty scary.
    Crimeans are lucky that Russia takes care of them like it does now. They have peace, bigger pensions, their region is being developed. Hell yeah if this is occupation, then please occupy me.

    Historically, Donbas was the heart of Russia. This was so up until the 1920s when Lenin gave Donbas to the then newly established Ukrainian SSR. Donbas holds way more cultural significance to Russia than Crimea does.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 23 The_Don_Basin_-_the_heart_of_Russia
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:45 pm

    Regular wrote:Think about pensions Russia would have to pay. For people who never paid taxes to Russia. Sheesh. Knowing that Eastern Ukraine has aging population thats pretty scary.
    Crimeans are lucky that Russia takes care of them like it does now. They have peace, bigger pensions, their region is being developed. Hell yeah if this is occupation, then please occupy me.

    I agree with a lot of this. Russia's economy is under a lot of stress and adding Donbass would be a huge burden. Currently Russia thinks that risks and costs of getting Donbass outweight the benefits. In a short run this is correct, but I'm afraid that in a long run Russia will lose.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:06 pm

    Looks like Crimea is doing ok against western and Ukrainian economic blockade.

    http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150713/1024560146.html

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/isolated-crimea-to-get-second-airport-as-russia-seeks-to-boost-ties/525564.html
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    Post  Bolt Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:12 pm

    Former head of Novorussia's counter-intelligence has told that:

    DNR's Ministry of defense was canceled/closed; almost all of Corps High command was changed, Republican Guards are being shifted to Corps, and the deputy minister of taxes was arrested today in Rostov. And that's "only a beginning". Think what you will of it.

    Это две НЕПАРАЛЕЛЬНЫЕ ветки.Сами для себя проанализируйте события 2 последних недель и сделайте выводы.Итак, два покушения за сегодня, упразднение министерства обороны ДНР, замена практически ВСЕГО командования Корпуса,Республиканскую гвардию переводят в Корпус, сегодняшний арест в Ростове заместителя министра налогов и сборов Михайлова...И, уверяю вас, все только НАЧИНАЕТСЯ

    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2286508.html
    ExBeobachter1987
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:19 pm

    Bolt wrote:Former head of Novorussia's counter-intelligence has told that:

    DNR's Ministry of defense was canceled/closed; almost all of Corps High command was changed, Republican Guards are being shifted to Corps, and the deputy minister of taxes was arrested today in Rostov. And that's "only a beginning". Think what you will of it.

    Это две НЕПАРАЛЕЛЬНЫЕ ветки.Сами для себя проанализируйте события 2 последних недель и сделайте выводы.Итак, два покушения за сегодня, упразднение министерства обороны ДНР, замена практически ВСЕГО командования Корпуса,Республиканскую гвардию переводят в Корпус, сегодняшний арест в Ростове заместителя министра налогов и сборов Михайлова...И, уверяю вас, все только НАЧИНАЕТСЯ

    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2286508.html

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 23 21582_original
    Flagship Victory
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    Post  Flagship Victory Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:25 pm

    So what's happening with Zackarchenko? I would expect him to be replaced.
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    Post  Erk Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:29 pm



    Right Sector clash with Kiev authorities relieves the pressure on Novorossia front.
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:23 am

    Regular wrote:Think about pensions Russia would have to pay. For people who never paid taxes to Russia. Sheesh. Knowing that Eastern Ukraine has aging population thats pretty scary.
    Crimeans are lucky that Russia takes care of them like it does now. They have peace, bigger pensions, their region is being developed. Hell yeah if this is occupation, then please occupy me.

    +1 this !
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    Post  Vann7 Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:26 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:Looks like Crimea is doing ok against western and Ukrainian economic blockade.

    http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150713/1024560146.html

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/isolated-crimea-to-get-second-airport-as-russia-seeks-to-boost-ties/525564.html

    This is  because Russia Budget carry Crimea on its shoulders.. paying pensions of all its citizens,
    and investing Billions of dollars in infrastructure ,roads ,airports.  You are as always ,backwards
    ass looking at things... as if you were reading a western propaganda script.

    Russia cannot annex any more territory ,it does not have the economy to do that.. get over it now.. What good can Russia do to eastern Ukraine if invading sinks the whole Russia economy after a decade and later they are forced to retreat and the shelling on ukraine continues?  That will only help your idol Poroshenko to get the unity he needs but dont have ,and keep busy Ukrainians on Russia in fighting Russia and not between them..

    it was Napoleon who told..


    ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.’

    And Ukraine is auto destroying itself , Is destroying its economy with the war against its own people and with their lawlessness government and support for criminals Ultra nationalist that surprise surprise ,now not only give problems to ethnic Russians but also to Kiev too. Time will not be long before Poroshenko ask Russia help to deal with their Ultra nationalist he first supported and that are financed by Americans. Or worse Poroshenko ends overthrow and forced to flee the country. Something like that will totally disband the nation in parts.. because no longer people will have any hope with ultra nationals fully in power.

    Ukraine is bleeding to death ,as long as the war continues in eastern ukraine and only Reversing the coup ,and returning democracy to Kiev ,recognizing half of the country that supports Russia
    as part of the government..will be a really good starting point.. will return things to Yakunovych
    in power ,before any unrest began in kiev. and then Ukraine will be in a position to start rebuilding its economy.


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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:27 am

    You guys won't believe where I found this sh*t.  scratch   lol1

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ivan-eland/in-the-long-term-surprisi_b_4889912.html

    Packed with usual ebil-Russia!!! BS of course, but there are some interesting takes in there:

    In the Long Term, Surprisingly, Putin's Solution for Ukraine May Be the Best


    Vladimir Putin and Russia -- almost never on the receiving end of good publicity in the United States -- do deserve criticism for the quiet invasion of Crimea, a Russian-speaking region of Ukraine. Invading other countries for any reason, except to pre-empt an attack, should be out-of-bounds in today's world.

    Unfortunately, this panacea has not been achieved, as the United States has also proven time after time. That stark reality is why Secretary of State John Kerry's recent comments on Meet the Press were so hypocritical. On Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he said, "This is an act of aggression that is completely trumped up in terms of its pretext" and "you just don't invade another country on phony pretext in order to assert your interests." Hmmm. What about the George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq after exaggerating threats from Iraqi "weapons of mass destruction" and dreaming up a non-existent operational link between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks. And what about Ronald Reagan's invasion of Grenada in 1983 to save U.S. medical students in no danger and George H.W. Bush's invasion of Panama because its leader, Manuel Noriega, was associated with the narcotics trade? In the latter case, many other leaders in Latin America at the time probably profited from such drug connections. More generally, Latin America has been a U.S. sphere of influence and playground for U.S. invasions since the early 1900s -- Lyndon Johnson's invasion of the Dominican Republic in 1965 and Bill Clinton's threatened invasion of Haiti in 1994 being two recent examples.

    In most cross-border invasions, two divergent levels exist -- nations' interests and the rhetoric used to justify them. As just noted, the U.S. government is often the champion of hypocrisy, criticizing other nations for transgressions it regularly commits as a superpower "doing good." Although even John Kerry surprisingly seemed to partially tip his hat to Putin's lame excuse for invading Crimea -- that Russian-speaking people there were in danger: "There are plenty of ways to protect Russian-speaking people in Crimea or other parts of Ukraine. But they are really sort of a hidden pretext here, possibly trying to annex Crimea." Kerry is probably right about Putin's goal of annexation of Crimea or perhaps other parts of eastern Ukraine, which are also populated by Russian-speaking peoples. And although Russia also invaded Georgia in 2008 after the then-Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili's actions threatened Russian speaking people there, Russian-speakers have been seemingly in less danger this time in Crimea.

    Nevertheless, rhetoric aside, Ukraine is clearly in the sphere of influence of neighboring Russia, Crimea used to be part of Russia, the Russians have based their fleet on the peninsula for centuries, and most of the Crimean population probably wouldn't object to Russia's annexation of the region. The same is probably true for most of Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. Russia may very well try to foment unrest in eastern Ukraine to justify further intervention. However, Russia is not dealing from a position of strength in Ukraine; the Russia-friendly elected government ruling all of Ukraine was overthrown by unelected street protesters, and Russia is merely trying to salvage the parts of Ukraine that speak Russian. In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Eastern European Empire and the triumphalist expansion of the adversary NATO alliance right up to Russia's borders, Russia's sphere of influence has contracted greatly, and it is trying to hold on to something.

    Because the nearby Russians have local military superiority, the more powerful United States and West have no good military options and must confine their responses to likely ineffective diplomatic protests and economic sanctions. And even those measures are often short-lived. Remember, Russia was given the Olympic games even after its invasion of Georgia.

    So after the U.S. and Western governments' indignant and hypocritical bombast about the admittedly unjustifiable Russian actions have passed, maybe Ukraine should be partitioned. Today's world is made up of states that usually avoid this solution, because many of them don't want to set an example for their own ethnic, religious, or tribal minorities that might want to break away. And the United States resists this solution because it is a status quo power and irrationally fears instability. Yet partitioning, if done correctly, can enhance stability. For example, if Iraq would have been partitioned into a loose confederation of autonomous regions, or even separate countries, by mutual consent of warring ethno-sectarian groups -- as my book Partitioning for Peace: An Exit Strategy for Iraq advocated -- the current resurgent violence likely could have been avoided. The central government would have been weak or non-existent, and the various groups would have had no incentive to fight to control the oppressive potential of it. The same is true for Ukraine.

    Since the Orange Revolution in 2004, which yanked Ukraine out of the Russian orbit, the country has been whipsawed back and forth between East and West. The pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych was legitimately elected in 2010, but has now been overthrown. If the country were partitioned into a pro-Western nation in western Ukraine and a pro-Russian nation in eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), this solution would allow the major groups self-determination, supposedly a U.S.-endorsed principle since President Woodrow Wilson championed it in World War I. Even if Russia annexed eastern Ukraine, most people who live there would not object; they do not want to be ruled by western Ukrainians. With partition, in addition to achieving self-determination, the situation in the region might at last become stable. Western Ukraine, Catholic and speaking Ukrainian, could grow closer to the West economically and politically and act as showcase of relative economic freedom, much as South Korea does vis-à-vis the less economically free North Korea. Eastern Ukraine, Orthodox and speaking Russian, could either be an independent state or be absorbed into Russia. Achieving this more stable situation might also allow tensions to be eased between nuclear-armed Russia and United States.

    Under no circumstances, however, should the NATO alliance be further expanded to include western Ukraine. The United States is currently reaping the bitter rewards of rubbing Russia's nose in the Soviet Union's collapse for more than 20 years. Putin is what he is and does what he does -- and gets support in Russia for it -- because he wants to restore the security buffer zone that was taken away by the alliance's unnecessary and provocative expansion after the Cold War ended. Counterintuitively, after the dust settles on this crisis, perhaps Putin -- although not justified in the way he did it -- will have unilaterally arrived at a more stable arrangement for the future of Ukraine and the region.
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:53 am

    Doesn't the author realize that the Kremlin does not want to divide Ukraine and would not support such a plan, especially after the heart of Eastern Ukraine was destroyed?
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    Post  Regular Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:47 am

    Bolt wrote:Former head of Novorussia's counter-intelligence has told that:

    DNR's Ministry of defense was canceled/closed; almost all of Corps High command was changed, Republican Guards are being shifted to Corps, and the deputy minister of taxes was arrested today in Rostov. And that's "only a beginning". Think what you will of it.

    Это две НЕПАРАЛЕЛЬНЫЕ ветки.Сами для себя проанализируйте события 2 последних недель и сделайте выводы.Итак, два покушения за сегодня, упразднение министерства обороны ДНР, замена практически ВСЕГО командования Корпуса,Республиканскую гвардию переводят в Корпус, сегодняшний арест в Ростове заместителя министра налогов и сборов Михайлова...И, уверяю вас, все только НАЧИНАЕТСЯ

    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2286508.html

    I think this whole conflict is a loose adaptation of Games of Thrones.
    So even in Rostov Your not safe from DNR police:) both sides seem to have similar internal problems.
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    Post  auslander Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:18 am

    Papa, that is one hell of an article to have come from HuffPost. It is an amazement and quite out of character but I doubt it indicates a sea change.

    I think the next few days will be interesting and a lot of questions will be answered in that time.
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:13 am

    Last night in Uzhgorod, Transcarpathia, were heard explosions and two cars were found to be burning. It is not clear what happened and whose cars, some say pravy sektor, others say that one of the cars belonged to the regional prosecutor.

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    Post  whir Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:28 am

    Russia Insider wrote:Putin, give back sex to people! - Women from Western Ukraine
    Rolling Eyes
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    Post  Guest Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:34 am

    Khepesh wrote:Last night in Uzhgorod, Transcarpathia, were heard explosions and two cars were found to be burning. It is not clear what happened and whose cars, some say pravy sektor, others say that one of the cars belonged to the regional prosecutor.

    Lovely, hope this situation will continue to worsen, as horrible as it is to say, it is nice to see that Donetsk and Lugansk are not the only places burning for once.

    Thanks for all the updates Khepesh and everyone else. Keep 'em coming.
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    Post  GarryB Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:36 am

    Doesn't the author realize that the Kremlin does not want to divide Ukraine and would not support such a plan, especially after the heart of Eastern Ukraine was destroyed?

    Considering the Author thinks the conflict in Georgia in 8 8 8 was Russian aggression and that they should be grateful for being allowed to have the Olympic games suggests they are a western idiot... they are just being pragmatic... after spending money shelling East Ukraine they likely don't want the cost of repairing the damage so they want to give that debt burden to Russia... they can always have a colour revolution in 10 or 20 years time to get it back.

    Notice the wording when he talks about the division of the Ukraine... he seems to think the west of ukraine is some utopia being held back by its backward eastern half... cut away the fat and let it grow to its full potential... I guess all the nazis will just disappear into the woodwork and all their problems will be solved.
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    Post  whir Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:05 am

    GarryB wrote:Notice the wording when he talks about the division of the Ukraine... he seems to think the west of ukraine is some utopia being held back by its backward eastern half... cut away the fat and let it grow to its full potential... I guess all the nazis will just disappear into the woodwork and all their problems will be solved.
    The anchor theory is very popular among certain circles, just yesterday or two days ago I can't remember exactly, Forbes published an article about Lithuania's successful postindustrial economy based high-tech innovations like mobile apps thanks to the fact that the country is not longer part of Soviet Russia.
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    Post  Khepesh Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:06 am

    Interesting ukrops originated infographic on casualties has appeared on the "Strelkov" VK page https://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_66728

    Perhaps somebody good at maths can check the numbers as I am terrible. However, it is about which region has suffered the most losses in the war in Eastern Ukraine and gives the distibution of losses by place of birth per 1 million people living in a region. That's what the top two lines of text say. Then on the columns it is in order of, place [ranked high to low], region and then death toll of forces per million people. On the article it extrapolates that this shows that for all of Ukraine, and it includes Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea, that for every 1 million Ukranians 905,5 have died, and on the basis of official figures showing population of 42,726 million, then a total of 38,688 ukrops soldiers have died. How it calculates deaths in those regions no longer under Kiev I do not know except that at face value it means, for instance, that in Donetsk 7,3 people per milion of population died fighting for ukrops, which it not unrealistic in a civil war perhaps. Interestingly this infographic can no longer be found on it's originating site http://www.slovoidilo.ua/.....

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