The Situation in the Ukraine. #16

JohninMK wrote:Video by Dniepo-1 battalion drone of very professional DNR positions NE of Mariupol. Two trips, one in May the other early June. Amazing how good the pictures are. Their take on the scene (English subtitles) is quite interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS5qYLJib3M

Anyone know what drone model?

The Mule wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Video by Dniepo-1 battalion drone of very professional DNR positions NE of Mariupol. Two trips, one in May the other early June. Amazing how good the pictures are. Their take on the scene (English subtitles) is quite interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS5qYLJib3M

Anyone know what drone model?

Probably something from the US. I would laugh if it was an OSCE drone!

Erk wrote:

The Mule wrote:Anyone know what drone model?

Probably something from the US. I would laugh if it was an OSCE drone!

In another video posted here a few weeks ago they clearly showed it and by the looks it appeared to be a custom made one copying DJI's Inspire design, nothing too professional aside from the custom gimbal and transmitter but those were aeromodelism quality.

Edit: now that I remember the father of this or similar custom drones for volunteer battalions was detained a few days ago for dodging draft .

whir wrote:

Erk wrote:

The Mule wrote:Anyone know what drone model?

Probably something from the US. I would laugh if it was an OSCE drone!

In another video posted here a few weeks ago they clearly showed it and by the looks it appeared to be a custom made one copying DJI's Inspire design, nothing too professional aside from the custom gimbal and transmitter but those were aeromodelism quality.

Edit: now that I remember the father of this or similar custom drones for volunteer battalions was detained a few days ago for dodging draft .

That drone in the video above had a serious zoom lens setup, not your average DJI with a Gopro mount that's for sure. At least a D-SLR

Interesting article, Russian only, by Konstantin Shchemelinin, "The Great Ukranian War", laying out ten scenarios for how military events in Ukraine may develop. He goes as far as decribing a war in Ukraine with NATO forces openly involved and mass casualties and destruction of cities, primarily Lvov, Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk. However, he does state that these are the hardest versions of what may happen and says he does not think they will happen, allthough elements of these scenarios could happen. All of course show an eventual win for Russia and a new country he calls FRNU, Federal Republic of Novorossiya and Ukraine with Donetsk as it's capital. Interesting reading, even if mostly fantasy, and I suspect that perhaps this type of article may appear in English on fortruss. http://www.segodnia.ru/content/162738

Khepesh wrote:Interesting article, Russian only, by Konstantin Shchemelinin, "The Great Ukranian War", laying out ten scenarios for how military events in Ukraine may develop. He goes as far as decribing a war in Ukraine with NATO forces openly involved and mass casualties and destruction of cities, primarily Lvov, Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk. However, he does state that these are the hardest versions of what may happen and says he does not think they will happen, allthough elements of these scenarios could happen. All of course show an eventual win for Russia and a new country he calls FRNU, Federal Republic of Novorossiya and Ukraine with Donetsk as it's capital. Interesting reading, even if mostly fantasy, and I suspect that perhaps this type of article may appear in English on fortruss. http://www.segodnia.ru/content/162738

Tom Clancy would be jealous. In all seriousness, even for an "unlikely" scenario this reads like something out of a cartoon. Some things just flatout don't make sense. Missile attack of the Baltic states over the territory of Belarus? Come on lol.

Erk wrote:That drone in the video above had a serious zoom lens setup, not your average DJI with a Gopro mount that's for sure. At least a D-SLR

A bridge camera, likely a Panasonic Lumix FZ70/FZ72, 60x zoom monster with a retail price of less than $400.

whir wrote:

Erk wrote:That drone in the video above had a serious zoom lens setup, not your average DJI with a Gopro mount that's for sure. At least a D-SLR

A bridge camera, likely a Panasonic Lumix FZ70/FZ72, 60x zoom monster with a retail price of less than $400.

A bit OT but how do they control zoom/focus remotely with a commercial camera?

What happens now one wonders? Do Kiev just move forward?

MOSCOW, July 1. /TASS/. The authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have decided to consider the village of Shirokino in eastern Ukraine a demilitarized zone, the official representative of the republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday. "As a good will gesture and a demonstration of peaceful aims, the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic has decided to unilaterally regard the village of Shirokino a demilitarized zone," Pushilin was quoted by the Donetsk news agency as saying. "The DPR armed forces have received orders not to open even a return fire in this direction," he said. Pushilin explained that the DPR strictly complies with the commitments under the Minsk peace process. However, the shellings of the republic’s territory from the Ukrainian side have not ended, and the most difficult situation is in Shirokino. "In order to stabilize the situation in Shirokino, we propose creating a demilitarized zone in the area of this settlement," said Pushilin, who is also deputy speaker of the DPR's People's Council. The control over the situation should be handed over to the OSCE monitoring mission that "will be the guarantor of peace and calm."
The issue of Shirokino demilitarization has been one of the most challenging as part of the agreements on withdrawing weapons with a caliber of under 100 mm.


The village of Shirokino in eastern Ukraine has unilaterally been designated as a demilitarized zone by the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, according to Denis Pushilin, chairman of the republic's Supreme Council Presidium. He said that the decision on the demilitarization of Shirokino had been made by the republic's authorities "as an act of good will and the demonstration of peaceful intentions." "The armed forces of the Donetsk People's Republic have been instructed not to open fire in response in this direction ", Pushilin said, referring to the village of Shirokino. He added that control over the situation there should be handed to a mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which Pushilin said "will be the guarantor of peace and security." He also urged Kiev to support the Donetsk People's Republic's peace initiatives.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024073124.html#ixzz3edHdETvO

Ukraine's gas from Russia now stopped. Only supply now is reverse flow which is probably OK for current demand but not enough to fill reserve tanks ahead of the winter. This could be one of the first effects of Ukraine running out of cash. No meeting has been arranged. This should not stop transit gas to the EU, but how much, if any, will not make it through is unknown.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russian energy giant Gazprom has shut the valves for gas deliveries to Ukraine and will not deliver any fuel until Kiev makes a prepayment, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Wednesday. “Ukraine has not made a prepayment for gas deliveries for July. As of 10:00 this morning, July 1, Gazprom has halted gas deliveries. Gazprom will not deliver any gas to Ukraine at any price until there is a prepayment,” Miller said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024072916.html#ixzz3edIbqcus

As a contrast this is the BBC's version

Russian gas purchases have been suspended by Ukraine after a breakdown in talks aimed at keeping supplies running for three to six months. The Ukrainian state energy company, Naftogaz, said it would continue transporting Russian gas supplies to other European customers. It will be the second time in less than a year that Russian fuel supplies have stopped running to Ukraine.

Russian energy minister Alexander Novak called the decision "unfortunate". Moscow hiked prices after Kremlin-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February 2014. It cut off gas supplies in June 2014 as the conflict between the government in Kiev and pro-Russian rebels in the east escalated. Since then, the European Union, which mediated at the price negotiations in Vienna, has forged a series of temporary agreements that need to be renewed every three months.

A statement from Naftogaz said: "Since the additional agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom is expiring on 30 June, and the terms of further Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine were not agreed at today's trilateral talks in Vienna, Naftogaz is suspending purchases from the Russian company." Ukraine consumes about 50bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year, producing about 20bcm but importing the rest. On average, Kiev experiences four months a year when the average temperature is below 0C (32F).

The two countries have fought several gas price wars in past years with Russia cutting supplies in 2006 and in the winter of 2008-09.

From Hunter News. Video clip about Kyiv soldiers who were imprisoned in animal cages as a mean punishment.

http://en.hunternews.ru/?p=1635

In early June, a lot of people did not believe that the Ukrainian commanders put their soldiers for misdemeanor in cages like animals, but now, in addition to the photographs, the video was published.

According to the operator sitting in the car the video confirms the version about the punishment for drinking alcohol during military service.

Initially, social networks and media published a shocking photo, which showed that three soldiers of the army of Ukraine were locked in a cage.

This photo quickly spread in the media with the punisher’s name – he was the commander of the 56 brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine Andriy Melnyk, and the photo location — the village Novasol.

This photo was published on the page in Facebook of Alexander Zolotukhin from Kiev. Besides it was reported that Melnyk landed a few soldiers in a cage for drinking of alcohol.

Zolotukhin then noted that the soldiers in the photos were lucky because another soldier that drunk a bottle of beer was thrown into a pit upside down and he got injures incompatible with life.

It should be noted that the video is shot the other cell — its frame is made of wood, whereas the cell with the soldiers on the photo is made up of metal. That means that it is not unusual for the AFU to keep their soldiers in cages.

JohninMK wrote:A bit OT but how do they control zoom/focus remotely with a commercial camera?

Without technical manipulation of the camera usually there are two options: 1) software, using the software supplied by the manufacturer or any other third party software to control the camera wirelessly through live view; and 2) physical, attaching a remote zoom and focus system to the camera, sometimes a bit cumbersome but there are Chinese off the self solutions for less than $100. In both cases the camera has to be connected to a transmitter to enhance the range.

1 Maidan soldier KIA and 10 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday.

Neutrality wrote:

Tom Clancy would be jealous. In all seriousness, even for an "unlikely" scenario this reads like something out of a cartoon. Some things just flatout don't make sense. Missile attack of the Baltic states over the territory of Belarus? Come on lol.

There are certainly some very far out scenarios which would, tho he denies it, lead to WWIII and nuclear war. I cannot see that severe missile bombardment of Warsaw, Bucharest and NATO bases in those countries and in Slovakia and Baltic states can very quickly lead to anything other than WWIII. On all his scenarios for military action I would not easily dismiss a battle by Dnepropetrovsk at some time in the future, and after battles for Mariupol, Melitipol, Izyum and possibly Kharkov. These all, apart from Mariupol, may seem fantasy to many at this moment, but it would not be wise to ignore the possibility, as any military action to liberate all of Donetsk and Lugansk could well involve advancing further than lines on a map for military needs to defeat the enemies forces. But that is IF it comes to a military solution. On his other scenarios I would say that those involving blocking internet are very likely, and while country specific blocks on such sites as youtube are ridiculously easy to circumvent, total blocks can be enforced at main national hubs, tho this is drastic. I would expect that if the political situation gets worse, then American owned countries will eventually block their citizens access to runet so they cannot learn the truth. Looking at the hysteria in various countries about "radicalisation" online, then I can see it would be a simple step to transfer this to saying that any electronic contact with Russia, or any pro Russian discussion online will be declared, as he says in his article, "treason". I always thought that many of the various hysteria campaigns against this or that on internet, while seemingly a good thing due to the targets, are in fact a means of pushing thro laws that set a precendent for states to take certain actions, and that all that is needed to seriously clamp down on political activity they do not like is a simple amendment to existing laws. Everybody in every country in the world is vulnerable to this, and many on forums such as this could, in extremis, be said to be "terrorists" or supporters of "terrorism. Even the "sofa war" is a type of front line. Polemic over

JohninMK wrote:What happens now one wonders? Do Kiev just move forward?

MOSCOW, July 1. /TASS/. The authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have decided to consider the village of Shirokino in eastern Ukraine a demilitarized zone, the official representative of the republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday. "As a good will gesture and a demonstration of peaceful aims, the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic has decided to unilaterally regard the village of Shirokino a demilitarized zone," Pushilin was quoted by the Donetsk news agency as saying. "The DPR armed forces have received orders not to open even a return fire in this direction," he said. Pushilin explained that the DPR strictly complies with the commitments under the Minsk peace process. However, the shellings of the republic’s territory from the Ukrainian side have not ended, and the most difficult situation is in Shirokino. "In order to stabilize the situation in Shirokino, we propose creating a demilitarized zone in the area of this settlement," said Pushilin, who is also deputy speaker of the DPR's People's Council. The control over the situation should be handed over to the OSCE monitoring mission that "will be the guarantor of peace and calm."
The issue of Shirokino demilitarization has been one of the most challenging as part of the agreements on withdrawing weapons with a caliber of under 100 mm.


The village of Shirokino in eastern Ukraine has unilaterally been designated as a demilitarized zone by the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, according to Denis Pushilin, chairman of the republic's Supreme Council Presidium. He said that the decision on the demilitarization of Shirokino had been made by the republic's authorities "as an act of good will and the demonstration of peaceful intentions."  "The armed forces of the Donetsk People's Republic have been instructed not to open fire in response in this direction ", Pushilin said, referring to the village of Shirokino. He added that control over the situation there should be handed to a mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which Pushilin said "will be the guarantor of peace and security." He also urged Kiev to support the Donetsk People's Republic's peace initiatives.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024073124.html#ixzz3edHdETvO

As a gesture of good will, NAF is going to sit there and get killed without shooting back? I think NAF has shown too much good will while Maidan fascists execute captured NAF soldiers.

New business and big profit opportunity, I wonder who has the franchise? Trading in Roubles?

KYIV, July 1 /Ukrinform/. The residents of the occupied territories in Donbas conflict zone will be able to buy Ukrainian food and medicines at checkpoints in the contact line, where the corresponding logistics centers will be built.

Chairman of the Donetsk regional military-civilian administration Pavlo Zhebrivsky told reporters at a press conference in the city of Kramatorsk on Wednesday, July 1. "Yesterday, I met with the Prime Minister and the President. Permission has been obtained for the construction of logistics centers at checkpoints," said the Donetsk governor. He said that "then everyone can go there and buy food and medicines." According to Zhebrivsky, now the necessary methodology is being developed, and in a week or two such logistic centers will be opened.

1st Slavyansk brigade

KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Wednesday he would submit a draft law to the parliament with proposed constitutional changes on decentralization by the end of the day. “I will today by the end of the day, without any changes, register it as a draft law, and it will today be sent to the Verkhovna Rada [parliament],” Poroshenko said.

According to the president, the bill, approved by Ukraine's constitutional commission last week, does not envision a special status for the troubled eastern Donbas region. "These are rumors," he said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024088934.html#ixzz3eeNFlVjf

JohninMK wrote:Ukraine's gas from Russia now stopped. Only supply now is reverse flow which is probably OK for current demand but not enough to fill reserve tanks ahead of the winter. This could be one of the first effects of Ukraine running out of cash. No meeting has been arranged. This should not stop transit gas to the EU, but how much, if any, will not make it through is unknown.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russian energy giant Gazprom has shut the valves for gas deliveries to Ukraine and will not deliver any fuel until Kiev makes a prepayment, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Wednesday. “Ukraine has not made a prepayment for gas deliveries for July. As of 10:00 this morning, July 1, Gazprom has halted gas deliveries. Gazprom will not deliver any gas to Ukraine at any price until there is a prepayment,” Miller said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024072916.html#ixzz3edIbqcus

As a contrast this is the BBC's version

Russian gas purchases have been suspended by Ukraine after a breakdown in talks aimed at keeping supplies running for three to six months. The Ukrainian state energy company, Naftogaz, said it would continue transporting Russian gas supplies to other European customers. It will be the second time in less than a year that Russian fuel supplies have stopped running to Ukraine.

Russian energy minister Alexander Novak called the decision "unfortunate". Moscow hiked prices after Kremlin-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February 2014. It cut off gas supplies in June 2014 as the conflict between the government in Kiev and pro-Russian rebels in the east escalated. Since then, the European Union, which mediated at the price negotiations in Vienna, has forged a series of temporary agreements that need to be renewed every three months.

A statement from Naftogaz said: "Since the additional agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom is expiring on 30 June, and the terms of further Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine were not agreed at today's trilateral talks in Vienna, Naftogaz is suspending purchases from the Russian company." Ukraine consumes about 50bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year, producing about 20bcm but importing the rest. On average, Kiev experiences four months a year when the average temperature is below 0C (32F).

The two countries have fought several gas price wars in past years with Russia cutting supplies in 2006 and in the winter of 2008-09.

Mmmmm, maybe we were a bit hasty and thought the Russians would not actually stop the gas.

KYIV, July 1 /Ukrinform/. Ukraine is ready to continue talks on gas supplies from the Russian Federation under main conditions that include a reasonable and economically verified price and a clear formula for the entire period of the heating season of 2015 - 2016.

Energy and Coal Industry Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Demchyshyn said this, commenting on the results of the trilateral meeting in Vienna, the press service of the Energy and Coal Industry Ministry reported. "The Russian party proposed a calculation formula of gas price that is neither reasonable nor economically verified. As of now, we are offered the price, which is higher than the price of reverse deliveries from Europe. We are well aware that the Russian gas on the eastern border should be cheaper, as there is no transit cost," Demchyshyn said.

According to the minister, the Ukrainian delegation is open for discussion and holes to continue talks with the assistance of the European partners to achieve mutually beneficial solutions on gas purchase by Ukraine for the whole period of the heating season of 2015-2016.

JohninMK wrote:KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Wednesday he would submit a draft law to the parliament with proposed constitutional changes on decentralization by the end of the day. “I will today by the end of the day, without any changes, register it as a draft law, and it will today be sent to the Verkhovna Rada [parliament],” Poroshenko said.

According to the president, the bill, approved by Ukraine's constitutional commission last week, does not envision a special status for the troubled eastern Donbas region. "These are rumors," he said.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024088934.html#ixzz3eeNFlVjf

What's the point of this war? This is a joke.

Azov reports fighting in Shirokino right now. Looks like Azov went on the offensive after NAF in Shirokino ordered not to shoot back after unilaterally demilitarizing Shirokino.

"The battle is still under way now. It's all progressing according to the standard script. Artillery is at work, cannons, mortars and rockets. At the moment there is only one wounded Ukrainian soldier. There are still civilians there, no-one has taken them out."

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-499-further-evidence-of-military-activity-near-recently-discovered-russian-base/

Flagship Victory wrote:Azov reports fighting in Shirokino right now. Looks like Azov went on the offensive after NAF in Shirokino ordered not to shoot back after unilaterally demilitarizing Shirokino.

"The battle is still under way now. It's all progressing according to the standard script. Artillery is at work, cannons, mortars and rockets. At the moment there is only one wounded Ukrainian soldier. There are still civilians there, no-one has taken them out."

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-499-further-evidence-of-military-activity-near-recently-discovered-russian-base/

Do you think the NAF will adhere the Minsk agreement and not shoot back or shoot back and defend themselves?

This must be the most pathetic "war" ever.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Azov reports fighting in Shirokino right now. Looks like Azov went on the offensive after NAF in Shirokino ordered not to shoot back after unilaterally demilitarizing Shirokino.

"The battle is still under way now. It's all progressing according to the standard script. Artillery is at work, cannons, mortars and rockets. At the moment there is only one wounded Ukrainian soldier. There are still civilians there, no-one has taken them out."

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-499-further-evidence-of-military-activity-near-recently-discovered-russian-base/

Do you think the NAF will adhere the Minsk agreement and not shoot back or shoot back and defend themselves?

This must be the most pathetic "war" ever.

They were ordered not to shoot back because of gesture of good will. Has nothing to do with Minsk.