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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16

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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:20 am

    whir wrote:
    RT wrote:EU extends economic sanctions against Russia - official
    Published time: June 22, 2015 07:30

    The European Union has extended economic sanctions against Russian for a further six months, a EU foreign policy official said. This follows the EU’s decision Friday to extend sanctions against Crimea for another year.

    DETAILS TO FOLLOW

    As expected. With most formalities out of the way I expect things to get lot more ''interesting'' before long.

    Funny that the general decided to defect today of all days. I really do not think it's a coincidence. Twisted Evil
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    Post  whir Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:27 am

    Khepesh wrote:He gives two options, either eventually withdraw Russian forces or take military action.
    You don't rise up a conventional army from scratch just to disband it the same way you don't amass thousands of troops and hardware just  to show off.

    Khepesh wrote:only that it has taken so long
    Personal and ideological allegiances usually go as far as the environment allows it.
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:21 am

    Khepesh wrote:Seems only Pervomaisk seems to fit for such a gamble.
    Quoting myself from the other day about the remote possibility of VSN deliberately withdrawing and allowing ukrops to take, or seem to attempt to take a city, and so create a casus beli. In the last hour or so reports of artillery bombardment of northern and eastern Pervomaisk. It's simply coincidence, but odd.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:40 am

    2 Maidan soldiers KIA and 3 more WIA yesterday

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/two-ukrainian-servicemen-killed-three-wounded-in-donbas-over-past-day-391710.html


    Blasts damaged 2 Russian banks in Kiev. Brother nation indeed.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/blasts-damage-two-russian-banks-overnight-in-kyiv-391706.html


    Russia charges its brother nation Ukraine winter gas package at a measly 1.5 MILLION USD. Gazprom loses money big time to prop up Maidan's economy from collapsing. Thanks Putin.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/reuters-new-ukraine-winter-gas-package-to-cost-15-million-dollars-391703.html
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    Post  higurashihougi Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:30 pm

    Now basically Porkie blabbering about not paying Russia turns out to be full bullshit Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

    http://tass.ru/en/economy/802900

    Ukraine has carried out coupon payment of $ 75 million on $ 3 billion Eurobonds, the Head of the Debt and State Financial Assets Department of the Finance Ministry Konstantin Vyshkovsky told TASS on Monday.

    "Yes, everything is fine. I confirm that the payment has been made," he said.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:37 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:

    Russia charges its brother nation Ukraine winter gas package at a measly 1.5 MILLION USD. Gazprom loses money big time to prop up Maidan's economy from collapsing. Thanks Putin.

    It actually makes a lot of political sense at the cost of what is really not a lot of money. It completely undercuts any possible claim by the US/EU that Russia is 'screwing' Ukraine in any way. It also boosts confidence in the rest of the increasingly important world that, regardless of the efforts of the US, that Russia is a good country to have dealings with and it will honour its contracts even in extremis. Interesting contrast with France for example.

    Also, it makes any competing source of gas, like Norway or LPG, look expensive, so will delay Ukraine actually going out to find a different source for when the transmission of gas stops.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:01 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Ukranian assistant minister of defence, Major General Alexander Kolomiets, has removed his family from Kiev and defected to DNR. He says he is not alone among the officers of UA who are disillusioned and wish to go to Donetsk. I am not surprised by this, only that it has taken so long, tho I am sure that valuable intelligence has come from UA officers since the beginning of the war who remained with Kiev, in body if not in heart. The possibility, the hope, that the junta could be killed by a military coup has always been on "back burner", and tho I do not doubt that SBU and all the facist loonies will be conducting a purge, there is still hope that normal officers and men will rise against them. Maybe this will be a false hope, just a brief moment of light, but this is good news today. http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2247623.html

    Edit: the video circulating that says it shows the bomb being planted at Sberbank in Kiev, is actually an old video of an attack that happend in Odessa during the winter.

    from Facebook this morning:

    22nd of June, 2015. Donetsk People's Republic, Novorossiya.

    Former Ukrainian Assistant Secretary of Defence, Major-General Alexander Kolomiyets has rallied to the Donetsk People's Republic, Kolomiets told a press conference at the Donetsk News Agency today.

    “I am Kolomiyets Alexander Vyacheslavovich, Major General of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. My last position was an Assistant Minister of Defence of Ukraine and chief military analyst. I served 19 years as a regional military commissar* of the Donetsk region. I’ll work to benefit the Donetsk People's Republic. I had to take my family out of Kiev, as we feared persecution by the authorities. Many of my former colleagues, with whom I keep in touch, are now ready to rally to the People’s Republic. Many of Ukrainian Army officers want to come back here, but they’re afraid, because the authorities won’t let them come here. Right now, people are only talking about it, but in the near future, I think that they’ll be back,” – Kolomiyets said.

    *Military commissar is the head of a military commissariat - a regional office that drafts men for military service, executes plans for military mobilization and maintains records on military reserves. (Wikipedia)
    http://dan-news.info/defence/byvshij-pomoshhnik-ministra-oborony-ukrainy-pereshel-na-storonu-dnr.html

    2.The military capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is very low, Major General Alexander Kolomiyets, former aide to Ukraine’s Defense Minister, stated at a news conference in Donetsk today.

    “The military capability of the Ukrainian army is at a very low level, as is its morale: all officers and generals understand that the government’s actions are criminal, no one wants to fight. Who’s fighting? Only volunteers in nationalist bands. Discontent is brewing throughout the army. I’ll say one thing. I’d expect to see mutiny in the Ukrainian forces in the near future. The officers don’t want to follow commands to kill civilians. We’ll see it somewhere around the autumn. It all depends,” – Kolomiyets said.


    3.22nd of June, 2015. Donetsk People's Republic, Novorossiya.

    Ukrainian forces have violated the ceasefire regime 74 times in the last 24 hours, the DPR Defense Ministry told the Donetsk News Agency.

    “In the course of the past 24 hours, we have recorded 74 truce violations by the Ukrainian side. 45 instances of shelling were at night. Ukrainian forces fired 31 tank shells, 192 mortars of 82-mm and 120-mm caliber upon the territory of the DPR. Besides, they used grenade launchers and small arms. Ukrainian forces shelled Donetsk (Petrovsky, Kievsky and Kuibyshevsky districts, Oktyabrskaya coal mine, Donetsk airport), Gorlovka, Spartak, Zhabichevo, Shirokino, Kalinovka, Novgorodskoye, Belaya Kamenka, Ozeryanovka, Vasilyevka. The data on civilian and military casualties is being specified,” – the DPR Defense Ministry said.

    Source: http://dan-news.info/…/vsu-za-sutki-74-raza-narushili-rezhi…
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:05 pm

    Sergey Bobkov ‏@sbobkov Jun 20

    Amazing transformation: from Azov NG scumbag to a Ukrainian police officer.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFsNUkAAmEmK

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFy-VAAAu-NX
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    Post  Ghoster Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:14 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:2 Maidan soldiers KIA and 3 more WIA yesterday

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/two-ukrainian-servicemen-killed-three-wounded-in-donbas-over-past-day-391710.html


    Blasts damaged 2 Russian banks in Kiev. Brother nation indeed.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/blasts-damage-two-russian-banks-overnight-in-kyiv-391706.html


    Russia charges its brother nation Ukraine winter gas package at a measly 1.5 MILLION USD. Gazprom loses money big time to prop up Maidan's economy from collapsing. Thanks Putin.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/reuters-new-ukraine-winter-gas-package-to-cost-15-million-dollars-391703.html

    It's only an estimate made by a member of the European Commission. It's actually estimated as 1.5 billion USD in the Reuters article.

    Trilateral talks between EU, Russia and Ukraine on gas will take place around June 26-29. The gas discount that Russia approved to Ukraine in late March is valid until June 30. Whether the gas price will be lowered even more than it is today, I guess we'll see.
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    Post  gregoire Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:22 pm

    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Sergey Bobkov ‏@sbobkov Jun 20

    Amazing transformation: from Azov NG scumbag to a Ukrainian police officer.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFsNUkAAmEmK

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFy-VAAAu-NX

    Why amazing? Is he now a good cop?
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:23 pm

    Putin says he is ally of Maidan and tries his best to stop Russians from going to Donbas to fight Maidan but he is powerless to stop.

    http://news.yahoo.com/moscow-powerless-stop-russians-fighting-ukraine-091653782.html
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:35 pm

    gregoire wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:Sergey Bobkov ‏@sbobkov Jun 20

    Amazing transformation: from Azov NG scumbag to a Ukrainian police officer.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFsNUkAAmEmK

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 CH9MFy-VAAAu-NX

    Why amazing? Is he now a good cop?

    It's sarcasm from Bobkov. Sickening is what it is.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:37 pm

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a6b_1434951321


    Ukrainian economy after a year of "reforms": Banana republic without bananas

    image: http://edge.liveleak.com/80281E/u/u/ll2/attention.gif
    Part of channel(s): Ukraine (current event)

    Tatzhit:

    Let's step back and imagine what would happen economically if Russia didn't back Crimean secession, and in fact actively opposed it (minimizing the "under the table" help from Russian troops on the peninsula to their friends&family).
    Let's further imagine that Crimeans and Donbass didn't manage to mount a significant armed insurrection on their own, and rebel movements were successfully drowned in blood.

    Would fewer people die? Absolutely.
    Just like fewer people died in France than in USSR during WWII.
    And, just like in France, Resistance movement would probably be even stronger without an open frontline to go to, so the illegal oppression would likely be even more severe.

    However, to properly interpret this analysis, let's step away from the war / human rights / lawlessness aspects, and consider only economy (although, of course, it would affect economy - we'd still have nationalist gangs attacking foreign companies , doing "wonders" for the investment climate).

    What is the key take-home point of this article?

    It shows that even if there was minimal resistance to turning Ukraine into a banana republic, it would still inevitably bring economic ruin and collapse.
    The same collapse that recently got the Pro-American, Pro-Kiev fugitive Georgian ex-president Saakashvili to declare "If we achieve 4% economic growth per year, it would take us 20 years to get to pre-Maidan levels".
    The same collapse that is doing more damage to the Ukrainian nation than the smoldering war in Donbass.

    As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. So I posted both, picture first - see for yourself how "good" Western reforms were for Ukraine... Bulgaria, Moldova, Georgia, Serbia, Libya, Syria, Iraq - how many countries does it take to realize the talk about "prosperity" is just empty promises?

    Read more at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a6b_1434951321#1lkjE45XjXRQ1lgw.99
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:02 pm

    I don't think I've posted this. I can't remember.

    http://wordlink.com/l/1bsKR

    The oligarch's chessboard: Kolomoisky and the Kiev Cauldron
    Gleb Bazov
    slavyangrad.wordpress.com
    Sun, 21 Jun 2015 18:33 UTC
    Map

    "What is this comic opera being played in Albania?" (Kemal Atatürk on President Zogu's elevation to monarchic status)

    When I began writing this, Kolomoiskiy was still governor of Dnepropetrovsk and had yet to back down in his confrontation with the Junta. It was my contention at the time that things were not as simple as waiting to see who the US would back in order to judge the outcome; that they were not necessarily minutely controlling the situation; that—to quote Iraq's one time Information Minister, Muhammad Sa‛eed al-Sahhaf—"they don't even control themselves!" Subsequent events certainly give the impression that a pronunciamiento from the US Ambassador is all it took to settle the issue. Nonetheless, I would still contend that the US is not needed in order to explain Kolomoiskiy's apparent surrender (a rally is planned for this Saturday in Dnepropetrovsk which may indicate what, if any, moves he has left to make).

    My reasoning for this is not that Frankenstein's monster has eluded the control of his creator, as Ukraine slips deeper into chaos (chaos, precisely, is one of the forms that US control takes); nor is it that the US has other concerns, including domestic political ones, that distract her attention. It is simply that even openly avowed US support is no guarantee that they will not abandon you in favour of somebody that they may have explicitly rejected or reprimanded. The US is working through Ukrainian actors, many of whom have the wherewithal to pursue their own personal goals, which may at some point coincide with those of the US—whoever appears to them most capable of achieving those goals is who they will ultimately back, even if they do not publicly proclaim that support.

    The public chiding of Kolomoiskiy by the US Ambassador may well have decided the outcome against him, but I would argue that it could also be seen as a simple observation that he was not going to succeed against the Junta. Recall that, a world away from Ukraine, Ngo Dinh Diem was once 'their man', and yet when the South Viet Nam Army eliminated him they effortlessly swung in behind the new power. More recently, Hosni Mubarak is living proof that public US backing in a crisis situation is neither a guarantee of success nor a guarantee that they have not also been hedging their bets and backing your rivals. So, in terms of the US Ambassador being the decisive factor here: je n'avais pas besoin de cette hypothèse-là. There are more fundamental reasons why (there is no other way of saying this, horrible as it sounds...) I was right to predict that Kolomoiskiy would lose and that he had made a huge miscalculation (I might add that there were probably others who said the same, but we all made our calculations and predictions independently of one another and wouldn't necessarily agree on the reasons for the defeat). So, why did I think Kolomoiskiy was going to lose?

    read more at link
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:08 pm

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/us-to-continue-helping-ukrainian-military-with-training-hardware-391711.html

    The U.S. will continue to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine until the Russian aggressor leaves Ukrainian territory, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt has said. wrote:

    Well, until it costs us too much, I would say... ugh.

    Or a different political landscape, or who knows what...
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    Post  Mr.Comrade Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:13 pm

    New video by Artem Grishanov.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:21 pm

    LOLs, FSB is powerless to arrest Russian volunteers who go to Donbas? Rolling Eyes

    http://news.yahoo.com/moscow-powerless-stop-russians-fighting-ukraine-091653782.html


    Russian news reports Major General Alexander Kolomiyets has defected to the self proclaimed DPR.

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150622/1023692395.html
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    Post  Bolt Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:42 pm

    Any news about the situation with water in Lugansk?
    Last I heard, last water pump was destroyed several days ago.
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:51 pm

    An inquisitive raccoon found this order signed by Zakharchenko. It says that Alexander Vyacheslavovich Kolomiyets has assumed the duties of secretary of the Defence Council of the Donetsk People's Republic, and this will be effective from the date the order is signed. Order signed 17 April 2015 well well.
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 Eae44f567b7b
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:54 pm

    Bolt wrote:Any news about the situation with water in Lugansk?
    Last I heard, last water pump was destroyed several days ago.
    Confusing info. Some say difficulties but not a serious problem, others that it is a nightmare about to happen. I don't know....
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:59 pm

    Saker is waaaaaaaay too dramatic dude for my taste but I'll post it anyway... dunno


    US May Be Looking to Extract Itself From the Ukraine Quagmire

    The Ukraine crisis has not yielded the desired anti-Russian results for Washington and is unlikely to in the future. Meanwhile the dysfunctional country is a liability to any sponsor.


    http://russia-insider.com/en/something-critical-might-be-happening-ukraine/ri8197

    Two small news items have not received much attention recently, and yet they might be the signs of something big happening:

    Poroshenko has fired the notorious head of the equally notorious Security Service of Ukraine or SBU: Valentin Nalivaichenko.

    Sergei Ivanov, the powerful Deputy Prime Minister of Russia has stated that the U.S. and Russia have created a bilateral communications channel on the Ukraine run by Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, for the U.S. and Grigorii Karasin, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, for Russia. The official reason for that was “not to complicate” the already delicate “Normandy-format”.

    So on one hand, we have Kerry and Nuland who came to Russia and who, by all accounts, got nothing of what they asked for but who are now getting a “communications channel”, while at the same time, the 100% U.S.-controlled Nalivaichenko, who is rumored to be an actual CIA agent recruited many years ago, is booted out by Poroshenko. Rumor also has it that Arsen Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs, will be next to be kicked out.

    These two will now communicate?

    There might be no connection here, but my guess is that there is.

    The reason why Nalivaichenko was fired is not so much because of the various corruptions scandals he — and all other junta members — were involved in as much as it is Poroshenko’s attempt to place “his” men in all key (power) positions. That, in turn, shows that his regime is getting weaker, not stronger – hence the need to strengthen and consolidate.

    I also believe that the Americans are fully aware of this process and this is why they now want a direct channel of communication with Russia: because they fully realize that the only two powers that matter in reality are the U.S. and Russia, especially now that events are getting out of control in Kiev.

    One of the best Ukraine specialists out there, Ishchenko, is now saying that the U.S. has concluded that the Ukraine is a total mess and that it is now trying to get out at the least possible cost. I tend to agree with this explanation, though I am not as confident as Ishchenko that we will see this political pullout play out this year.

    Because make no mistake: the $300 million allocated by Congress to arm the Ukraine is a joke. A drop of water into a desert. It will change nothing. Most of it will be stolen and the rest will be wasted.

    The expected Ukrainian attack on Novorussia has not happened either, and while the rhetoric in Kiev is more bellicose than ever, and while the Ukrainian forces along the line of contact are constantly shelling Novorussia, no real, full scale, attack has happened. Could it be that the Ukrainians are truly afraid of the consequences of an always possible Novorussian counterattack?

    It is also becoming increasingly obvious that the U.S. has failed to isolate Russia and that the Russia economy is doing way better than anybody, including the Kremlin, had expected.

    So if the Ukraine cannot be used to mount a military attack on Novorussia with the goal of force Russia to intervene, and if the civil war in the Ukraine has failed to produce the kind of isolation and sanctions against Russia which Washington wanted – then what is the use of the Ukraine to Uncle Sam?

    Yes, sure, there is the port of Odessa, and some industrial and natural resources that Western corporations will be able to acquire for a fraction of its value, but these benefits pale in comparison with the immense costs of somehow tackling the huge economic, social and political problems of the Ukraine.

    It will come to that sooner or later anyway. The U.S. made an unholy mess of Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and it always ended up getting out, at least politically.  Why should it be different for the Ukraine?

    I submit that if the U.S. analysts came to the conclusion that there is no hope of forcing Russia to sent her forces into the Donbass then the Ukraine becomes useless. The chances of Russia doing so appear to be very close to zero right now. True, there is the very dangerous situation in Transnistria which might, really, force Russia to intervene, but for some reason the U.S. does not seem to be eager to trigger an immediate crisis. Could it be that the U.S. is holding Transnistria as a bargaining chip against Russia in a  “you don’t make things too bad for us or else…” kind of strategy? Maybe. I honestly don’t know.

    It will be interesting to see of Avakov get’s booted out next and how the various Ukrainian nazi death-squads will react to the firing of their patrons in Kiev.
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:37 pm

    Odd military activity in Avdeevka. Reports of firing, not specific of what type but at least mortars, and the detonation of the shells about 3 seconds after firing. The person reporting this assumes that ukrops fire on themselves. IF so, then not the first time, and the strange affair in Uglegorsk before VSN took the city is still not solved.
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    Post  whir Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:48 pm

    Khepesh wrote:An inquisitive raccoon found this order signed by Zakharchenko. It says that Alexander Vyacheslavovich Kolomiyets has assumed the duties of secretary of the Defence Council of the Donetsk People's Republic, and this will be effective from the date the order is signed. Order signed 17 April 2015 well well.
    Now that you mention the date, I remember someone posted similar information back in April (I can't remember if it was the defection to or the appointment) about a UArmy General on Mp.net just to be laughed at because such thing was impossible.
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:00 pm

    Not the most scientific but...

    Got this facebook screenshot from my profile and, if top two comments are anything to go by, Germans are not really into that Fulda gap shtick anymore...

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #16 - Page 10 Screen10

    http://www.n24.de/n24/Nachrichten/Politik/d/6849960/droht-der-naechste-kalte-krieg-.html
    Flagship Victory
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    Post  Flagship Victory Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:08 pm

    Merkel and Holland chides Putin for not adhereing to Minsk agreement.

    http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-hollande-see-insufficient-ukraine-progress-putin-call-154103207.html


    Canada treats wounded Maidan soldiers.

    http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/ukraines-other-war-the-fight-to-heal-soldiers-bodies-and-minds/


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

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