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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Neutrality
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    Post  Neutrality on Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:50 pm

    Yes, I do agree on that. Moscow's ultimate goal (IMHO) basically comes down to this: current government in Kiev overthrown by a massive amount of dissatisfied people. Then have the new government blame Europe (mainly Germany) and the USA for pushing their country into chaos and misleading the entire nation. There's nothing worse than having a horse that you bet on, lose and even turn against you. It will be a political Vietnam to them and it WILL damage their global reputation because Moscow and Beijing will be fueling the fire in the UN and the UNSC. Not even to mention their own "free" press which will ultimately hand them the rope. In such a scenario, Kiev doesn't even need to become pro-Russian. Being anti-West will be more important.

    On-topic: Moscow's tone is just too nice to my liking. The Kremlin needs to reply back in the same aggressive tone as they are being talked to.
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    Post  medo on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:07 pm

    There are some rumors, that in Odessa and in Harkov oblasts are quietly forming strong partisans groups, to fight against Ukro nazis. Anyone have any more informations regarding those partisans? It seems, that if Ukro nazis start a new round of war in Donbass, they will have to fight in two more fronts than in previous rounds.
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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:08 pm

    whir wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:just compare the german army in 1944-45 on the western and eastern fronts. They fought like hell against the red army, knowing what was coming to them, but on the west they were surrendering in their droves.
    But that wasn't a consequence of soviet treatment of POW but of German treatment of Soviet POW and Soviet population.

    Exactamundo.

    It was mainly driven by German expectation of what the Russians would do to them upon capture, with rumours fueled by Nazi party propaganda too.

    Guess why they expected brutal treatment from the Russians.
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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:10 pm

    medo wrote:There are some rumors, that in Odessa and in Harkov oblasts are quietly forming strong partisans groups, to fight against Ukro nazis. Anyone have any more informations regarding those partisans? It seems, that if Ukro nazis start a new  round of war in Donbass, they will have to fight in two more fronts than in previous rounds.

    lol, again with the Odessa and Kharkov 'partisans'

    What are they going to do this time? Deface another work surface in a workshop with an etched scribble of 'Glory to Russia'?

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    Post  Regular on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:11 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Yes, I do agree on that. Moscow's ultimate goal (IMHO) basically comes down to this: current government in Kiev overthrown by a massive amount of dissatisfied people. Then have the new government blame Europe (mainly Germany) and the USA for pushing their country into chaos and misleading the entire nation. There's nothing worse than having a horse that you bet on, lose and even turn against you. It will be a political Vietnam to them and it WILL damage their global reputation because Moscow and Beijing will be fueling the fire in the UN and the UNSC. Not even to mention their own "free" press which will ultimately hand them the rope. In such a scenario, Kiev doesn't even need to become pro-Russian. Being anti-West will be more important.

    On-topic: Moscow's tone is just too nice to my liking. The Kremlin needs to reply back in the same aggressive tone as they are being talked to.
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    Post  Khepesh on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:12 pm

    Locals in Dokuchaevsk have in the last hour reported outgoing Grad fire. Locals in Telmanovo have in the last hour reported incoming fire, and reports of casualties and buildings damaged. One four year old is reported killed. This will not be Grad at that range, it will be Smerch. After nonsense yesterday I'm being very cautious reporting anything too quickly. The outgoing from Dokuchaevsk is being reported in other places so could be true. What happens in Telmanovo is so far only from residents and not confirmed.
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    Post  gregoire on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:12 pm

    @vann7 (long quote here)

    Nice writing. I agree. This has been said many times though but somehow people just lose their cool. This is a game of hearts and minds, exactly the game the US/the west has been playing for centuries now. last trick was Nuland with her fartbuns on maidan. Heart and minds, smile at the camera.
    People are just to pre-occupied to really pay attention to what is going on. Even my generally smart friends have lost themselves in irrational russophobia, it's crazy. But they work, need to pay bills, have trouble with kids/wife/boss/car and so on. I'm done with blaming them for being uninformed or maybe even stupid. In the end they will have to reposition themselves even if it takes years.

    In my opinion Russia has the home advantage. There is no way any outside party can dominate the black sea or the entirety of ukraine if Russia doesn't want to. Besides, Russia sent special operatives to transnistria. You have to ask yourself; how did they do that? Did they know in advance? Are the borders just leaky or did president Putin do another slight of hand that raised the hairs on the back of the necks of NATO, kievjunta and the US?
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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:25 pm

    Akula971 wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:The Novorussians can win the war using breakthroughs, manuevers, seizure of key transport and infastructural hubs, and by completely avoiding every settlement larger than a small town.
    Once a Ukrainian-held city is surrounded, it becomes more a liability to the Ukrainians themselves than a help to them in any case.

    You want them to fight like ISIS ?? dunno

    The flippin' heck are you talking about?

    The only way I want the Novorussians to fight - is in a way that destroys the fighting potential of the VSU as quickly as possible.

    Moving them down through the countryside and fast, encircling manuevers, interdicting every major highway and railroad enroute to prevent communication and resupply, while circumventing any big cities or strongholds is the optimal way to do that.
    With enough force and speed the Ukrainian forces as a unified front will collapse as they came close to doing the 2 previous times; elements of disorganized formations will congregate to defensible cities and strongpoints; while wide open holes will appear all across Ukrainian lines.

    Once the forward elements race through, artillery can be brought up to reduce any strongholds, while the cities can simply be surrounded; all Ukrainian forces who retreat to them will be safe but they'll also effectively be out of supplies, out of the war and unable to take any initiative - which is exactly where the Novorussians want them.

    Once the Ukrainian lines collapse Novorussian forces can race deep into the heartlands, again avoiding all population centres and simply cutting one line of communication after the other; preventing any reformation of any Ukrainian defensive lines and linking up of any units, basically just breaking up all possible Ukrainian resistance into hopeless, isolated pockets. The rebels will have won.
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    Post  Neutrality on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:33 pm

    gregoire wrote:Besides, Russia sent special operatives to transnistria. You have to ask yourself; how did they do that? Did they know in advance? Are the borders just leaky or did president Putin do another slight of hand that raised the hairs on the back of the necks of NATO, kievjunta and the US?

    History of wars and revolutions and just being masters at military intelligence. Guess which country has the most excellent chess players.
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    Post  Rodinazombie on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:34 pm

    whir wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:just compare the german army in 1944-45 on the western and eastern fronts. They fought like hell against the red army, knowing what was coming to them, but on the west they were surrendering in their droves.
    But that wasn't a consequence of soviet treatment of POW but of German treatment of Soviet POW and Soviet population.

    It was due to their own barbaric behaviour in the SU, after they murdered and pillaged their way through eastern europe they knew what was coming to them, and they did get what was coming to them.

    The hows and whys arent important here, whats important is the fact that they are more inclined to surrender to an enemy that treats them well upon surrendering, mistreating them simply hardens their resolve to fight. Thats the point im making.
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    Post  Khepesh on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:36 pm

    Shelling of Telmanovo confirmed. A playground was hit and a one year old died and three adults injured. This is what Vesti reports http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2626552&cid=9 This must be presumed what has happened, tho other unoficial sources say that stadium was also hit and a ten year old died.

    Edit: Maybe both are the same child, the same incident, as there is some confusion about age. Seems now like it was boy of four.


    Last edited by Khepesh on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  gregoire on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:37 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    gregoire wrote:Besides, Russia sent special operatives to transnistria. You have to ask yourself; how did they do that? Did they know in advance? Are the borders just leaky or did president Putin do another slight of hand that raised the hairs on the back of the necks of NATO, kievjunta and the US?

    History of wars and revolutions and just being masters at military intelligence. Guess which country has the most excellent chess players.

    I am surprised and not surprised at all. This has been happening every time it seemed Russia had been dealt a bad hand of cards. This will be stuff to study on any military academy.
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    Post  Neutrality on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:39 pm

    Khepesh wrote:A playground was hit and a one year old died and three adults injured.

    Jesus, this is fucking terrible. Condolences to the parents. And as usual there's no word from OSCE.

    PS: I read a story about a Ukrainian soldier opening fire on his own comrades and getting killed in the process. Any story on that?
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    Post  Khepesh on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:44 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:A playground was hit and a one year old died and three adults injured.

    Jesus, this is fucking terrible. Condolences to the parents. And as usual there's no word from OSCE.

    PS: I read a story about a Ukrainian soldier opening fire on his own comrades and getting killed in the process. Any story on that?
    Not heard about that one
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    Post  Neutrality on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:46 pm

    Khepesh wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:
    Khepesh wrote:A playground was hit and a one year old died and three adults injured.

    Jesus, this is fucking terrible. Condolences to the parents. And as usual there's no word from OSCE.

    PS: I read a story about a Ukrainian soldier opening fire on his own comrades and getting killed in the process. Any story on that?
    Not heard about that one

    http://lenta.ru/news/2015/06/04/fight/
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    Post  Khepesh on Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:51 pm

    Basurin has released the casualty figures resulting from yesterdays bombardment of Donetsk. 21 dead and 124 wounded.
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    Post  Erk on Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:15 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:The best thing for Russia would be to find a way to end this war quickly. Currently there are no other ways to do that than usage of military force, including missiles, to wipe out Ukrainian military assets throughout the whole country. The strike would also have to include wiping out the administrative buildings in Kiev (SBU, Rada etc.) during working hours that would kill most of the active leadership of the current Kiev regime with one punch.

    Russia will not do this for many reasons (which many are good reasons), so this war will continue for a long time. Expecting the Kiev regime to collapse is a waste of time. It won't. The West will support it just enough for it to get by and finance the war. The cost for the West for financing this war is very small when compared to the benefits of hurting Russia.

    I don't think that's right, if Russia invaded Ukraine millions of Ukrainians would rebel, and it would be an uncontrollable society full of hate for the government. It's better if the people hate Porky/Yatz and his cronies.

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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:03 pm

    Neutrality wrote:

    On-topic: Moscow's tone is just too nice to my liking. The Kremlin needs to reply back in the same aggressive tone as they are being talked to.
    The Kremlin seems to be incapable of that. No matter how much mud is thrown at the face of Russia the Russians will keep turning the other cheek.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:04 pm

    medo wrote:There are some rumors, that in Odessa and in Harkov oblasts are quietly forming strong partisans groups, to fight against Ukro nazis. Anyone have any more informations regarding those partisans? It seems, that if Ukro nazis start a new  round of war in Donbass, they will have to fight in two more fronts than in previous rounds.
    These kind of rumors have come around for around a year and nothing concrete came out of them.

    The rumors were either false or the Kiev junta managed to neutralize the partisan groups before they could grow.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:08 pm

    Erk wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The best thing for Russia would be to find a way to end this war quickly. Currently there are no other ways to do that than usage of military force, including missiles, to wipe out Ukrainian military assets throughout the whole country. The strike would also have to include wiping out the administrative buildings in Kiev (SBU, Rada etc.) during working hours that would kill most of the active leadership of the current Kiev regime with one punch.

    Russia will not do this for many reasons (which many are good reasons), so this war will continue for a long time. Expecting the Kiev regime to collapse is a waste of time. It won't. The West will support it just enough for it to get by and finance the war. The cost for the West for financing this war is very small when compared to the benefits of hurting Russia.

    I don't think that's right, if Russia invaded Ukraine millions of Ukrainians would rebel, and it would be an uncontrollable society full of hate for the government. It's better if the people hate Porky/Yatz and his cronies.

    I'm not talking about an invasion. Just a precision strike to Kiev to take out the most important junta leaders. And air support for the rebels in Donbass.
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    Post  Guest on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:22 pm

    What were the rumors regarding the new caludron?
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    Post  Erk on Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:06 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Erk wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The best thing for Russia would be to find a way to end this war quickly. Currently there are no other ways to do that than usage of military force, including missiles, to wipe out Ukrainian military assets throughout the whole country. The strike would also have to include wiping out the administrative buildings in Kiev (SBU, Rada etc.) during working hours that would kill most of the active leadership of the current Kiev regime with one punch.

    Russia will not do this for many reasons (which many are good reasons), so this war will continue for a long time. Expecting the Kiev regime to collapse is a waste of time. It won't. The West will support it just enough for it to get by and finance the war. The cost for the West for financing this war is very small when compared to the benefits of hurting Russia.

    I don't think that's right, if Russia invaded Ukraine millions of Ukrainians would rebel, and it would be an uncontrollable society full of hate for the government. It's better if the people hate Porky/Yatz and his cronies.

    I'm not talking about an invasion. Just a precision strike to Kiev to take out the most important junta leaders. And air support for the rebels in Donbass.

    That would be an invasion, and chances are that it would mobilize Ukrainians against Donbass/Russia who until now might have been neutral towards the rebellion.


    RT article on intercepted satellite images confirming Minsk 2 violations by Kiev.

    http://rt.com/news/265089-us-kiev-ceasefire-leak/


    Last edited by Erk on Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:53 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link to article)
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    Post  Flagship Victory on Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:44 am

    Minsk is dead. Now what?

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/minsk-is-dead-now-what-390323.html
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    Post  par far on Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:49 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Erk wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The best thing for Russia would be to find a way to end this war quickly. Currently there are no other ways to do that than usage of military force, including missiles, to wipe out Ukrainian military assets throughout the whole country. The strike would also have to include wiping out the administrative buildings in Kiev (SBU, Rada etc.) during working hours that would kill most of the active leadership of the current Kiev regime with one punch.

    Russia will not do this for many reasons (which many are good reasons), so this war will continue for a long time. Expecting the Kiev regime to collapse is a waste of time. It won't. The West will support it just enough for it to get by and finance the war. The cost for the West for financing this war is very small when compared to the benefits of hurting Russia.

    I don't think that's right, if Russia invaded Ukraine millions of Ukrainians would rebel, and it would be an uncontrollable society full of hate for the government. It's better if the people hate Porky/Yatz and his cronies.

    I'm not talking about an invasion. Just a precision strike to Kiev to take out the most important junta leaders. And air support for the rebels in Donbass.


    A Russian strike on Kiev is exactly what the evil US want. A very off topic question, how much of a hand do you think the Rothchilds have in what is happening in Ukraine?
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    Post  Flagship Victory on Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:54 am

    par far wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Erk wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:The best thing for Russia would be to find a way to end this war quickly. Currently there are no other ways to do that than usage of military force, including missiles, to wipe out Ukrainian military assets throughout the whole country. The strike would also have to include wiping out the administrative buildings in Kiev (SBU, Rada etc.) during working hours that would kill most of the active leadership of the current Kiev regime with one punch.

    Russia will not do this for many reasons (which many are good reasons), so this war will continue for a long time. Expecting the Kiev regime to collapse is a waste of time. It won't. The West will support it just enough for it to get by and finance the war. The cost for the West for financing this war is very small when compared to the benefits of hurting Russia.

    I don't think that's right, if Russia invaded Ukraine millions of Ukrainians would rebel, and it would be an uncontrollable society full of hate for the government. It's better if the people hate Porky/Yatz and his cronies.

    I'm not talking about an invasion. Just a precision strike to Kiev to take out the most important junta leaders. And air support for the rebels in Donbass.


    A Russian strike on Kiev is exactly what the evil US want. A very off topic question, how much of a hand do you think the Rothchilds have in what is happening in Ukraine?

    Not stopping NAF from taking Kiev would suffice. FSA is almost taking Damascus these days with American supplied TOW anti tank missiles. If Russia supplies Kornet anti tank missiles, NAF would have already taken Kiev by now.

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