Flagship Victory wrote:Nikander wrote:Ukraine and the West would gladly let Russia take Donbass. It's not their first choice but if that's what Russia wanted the deal would be quickly made. Most of Russian population would in that situation vanish from Ukraine, and it would be easy to make of the country the most fascist and russophobe place in the world. Putin knows this and that's why he will never recognize Donbass as independent or make it part of Russia. At least not in the present form. If one day Novorossiya becomes independent or joins Russia it will happen with much bigger territory under it's control, you can be sure about that. This game has just begun and nothing is lost. At present Russia loses if they let rebels be overrun or if current territory controlled by rebels becomes independent of Ukraine. On the other hand West and their puppets in Kiev lose if Donbass is part of Ukraine but has an autonomy, meaning if Minsk is implemented. They know that they will lose if it's implemented so it will not be implemented unless situation on the ground forces them to do it. So war will most likely continue sooner or later.
About Nato bases in Ukraine, again it will never happen in Ukraine as we know it know. Maybe it happens in much smaller Ukraine, that will have much smaller border with Russia but in Ukraine as it is it will never happen. If Russia senses that things are going in that way they will send the army to Kiev no matter the cost, I have no doubt about that. So this talk about bases and that East won't have any say is not really serious talk. If they won't have any say than what's stopping the West and Kiev from implementing the Minsk deal? Well, because they know that pro Russian Donbass with an autonomy would be like an antivenom spreading all over Ukraine and blocking their poison of hate to take root. Russia is playing the long game, trying to get what it wants without taking big risks or breaking with the West. For Russia and Russians everywhere the best solution would be for Donbass to have autonomy and be part of Ukraine. Ideally that can be achieved peacefully but most likely it will have to be achieved by force with victory in battles until something breaks in Ukrainian society, their ruling class and today's rulers will then be deposed. When hopefully that happens Russia will achieve a complete victory in Ukraine and it would have a much better situation than before all this happened. She would have gained Crimea, Donbass would have an autonomy, the rest of Ukraine would be sick of West and full of disappointment and they wouldn't be able to organize new Maidan for decades
because of it if ever.
Donbas is not a small piece of land. About as big as each of the Baltic states. Ukraine would never give up territory. Even if Donbas is razed to the ground, Ukraine will never give up Donbas. Tom Cruise has a good line in the 1992 movie Far and Away when he said land is the most valuable thing in the world, no one will give you land. Indeed, humanity has fought over land over hundreds of thousands of years. You'd imagine Putin is foolish for not wanting Donbas when the people of Donbas wanted to join Russia in May 2014.
There are already American troops in Ukraine. The US knows, with US troops in Ukraine, Russia won't dare to invade Ukraine because Russia won't fight a war with the US. Therefore, once the US starts putting military bases in Ukraine, then it's pretty much guaranteed Ukraine would join NATO.
They would not gave it up formally just like they didn't with Crimea, but really they would because of the reasons I've mentioned before. It's not small piece of land but it's small piece of Ukraine, and they would sacrificed it for neo-Nazi russophobe Ukraine without Russians, with Nato bases. Putin is not foolish, he didn't want Donbass because in it's present form it doesn't do any good for Russia or for people of Donbass for the reasons I also mentioned. Whatever happens this Ukraine crisis will not end with present situation because it doesn't do any good for anybody.
American troops were in Georgia in 2008. also, in fact they were dying there and Russia did invade there, so no US don't know what are you saying. With or without so called instructors there Russia will invade if will have to and US won't do shit because it's them that won't fight war with Russia. They will get their reward in complete enslavement of Europe but they will not fight Russia in her backyard. And bases are coming after joining Nato and not before. If they start putting them before then again Russian army will be in Kiev.