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Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Chinese Win-Win, by Pepe Escobar for The Cradle. 04.08.2023.

The idea that History has an endpoint, as promoted by clueless neoconservatives in the unipolar 1990s, is flawed, as it is in an endless process of renewal. The recent official meeting between Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Beijing marks a territory that was previously deemed unthinkable and which has undoubtedly caused grief for the War Inc. machine.

This single handshake signifies the burial of trillions of dollars that were spent on dividing and ruling West Asia for over four decades. Additionally, the Global War on Terror (GWOT), the fabricated reality of the new millennium, featured as prime collateral damage in Beijing.

Beijing’s optics as the capital of peace have been imprinted throughout the Global South, as evidenced by a subsequent sideshow where a couple of European leaders, a president, and a Eurocrat, arrived as supplicants to Xi Jinping, asking him to join the NATO line on the war in Ukraine. They were politely dismissed.

Still, the optics were sealed: Beijing had presented a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that was branded “irrational” by the Washington beltway neocons. The Europeans – hostages of a proxy war imposed by Washington – at least understood that anyone remotely interested in peace needs to go through the ritual of bowing to the new boss in Beijing.

The irrelevance of the JCPOA


Tehran-Riyadh relations, of course, will have a long, rocky way ahead – from activating previous cooperation deals signed in 1998 and 2001 to respecting, in practice, their mutual sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

Everything is far from solved – from the Saudi-led war on Yemen to the frontal clash of Persian Gulf Arab monarchies with Hezbollah and other resistance movements in the Levant. Yet that handshake is the first step leading, for instance, to the Saudi foreign minister’s upcoming trip to Damascus to formally invite President Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League summit in Riyadh next month.

It’s crucial to stress that this Chinese diplomatic coup started way back with Moscow brokering negotiations in Baghdad and Oman; that was a natural development of Russia stepping in to help Iran save Syria from a crossover NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coalition of vultures.

Then the baton was passed to Beijing, in total diplomatic sync. The drive to permanently bury GWOT and the myriad, nasty ramifications of the US war of terror was an essential part of the calculation; but even more pressing was the necessity to demonstrate how the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, had become irrelevant.

Both Russia and China have experienced, inside and out, how the US always manages to torpedo a return to the JCPOA, as it was conceived and signed in 2015. Their task became to convince Riyadh and GCC states that Tehran has no interest in weaponizing nuclear power – and will remain a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Then it was up to Chinese diplomatic finesse to make it quite clear that the Persian Gulf monarchies’ fear of revolutionary Shi’ism is now as counter-productive as Tehran’s dread of being harassed and/or encircled by Salafi-jihadis. It’s as if Beijing had coined a motto: drop these hazy ideologies, and let’s do business.

And business it is, and will be: better yet, mediated by Beijing and implicitly guaranteed by both nuclear superpowers Russia and China.

Hop on the de-dollarization train


Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) may exhibit some Soprano-like traits, but he’s no fool: he instantly saw how this Chinese offer morphed beautifully into his domestic modernization plans. A Gulf source in Moscow, familiar with MbS’ rise and consolidation of power, details the crown prince’s drive to appeal to the younger Saudi generation who idolize him. Let girls drive their SUVs, go dancing, let their hair down, work hard, and be part of the “new” Saudi Arabia of Vision 2030: a global tourism and services hub, a sort of Dubai on steroids.

And, crucially, this will also be a Eurasia-integrated Saudi Arabia; future, inevitable member of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS+ – just like Iran, which will also be sitting at the same communal tables.

From Beijing’s point of view, this is all about its ambitious, multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A key BRI connectivity corridor runs from Central Asia to Iran and then beyond, to the Caucasus and/or Turkey. Another one – in search of investment opportunities – runs through the Arabian Sea, the Sea of Oman, and the Persian Gulf, part of the Maritime Silk Road.

Beijing wants to develop BRI projects in both corridors: call it “peaceful modernization” applied to sustainable development. The Chinese always remember how the Ancient Silk Roads plied Persia and parts of Arabia: in this case, we have History Repeating Itself.

A geopolitical revolution

And then comes the Holy Grail: energy. Iran is a prime gas supplier to China, a matter of national security, inextricably linked to their $400 billion-plus strategic partnership deal. And Saudi Arabia is a prime oil supplier. Closer Sino-Saudi relations and interaction in key multipolar organizations such as the SCO and BRICS+ advance the fateful day when the petroyuan will be definitely enshrined.

China and the UAE have already clinched their first gas deal in yuan. The high-speed de-dollarization train has already left the station. ASEAN is already actively discussing how to bypass the dollar to privilege settlements in local currencies – something unthinkable even a few months ago. The US dollar has already been thrown into a death by a thousand cuts spiral.

And that will be the day when the game reaches a whole new unpredictable level.

The destructive agenda of the neocon leaders in charge of US foreign policy should never be underestimated. They exploited the 9/11 “new Pearl Harbor” pretext to launch a crusade against the lands of Islam in 2001, followed by a NATO proxy war against Russia in 2014. Their ultimate ambition is to wage war against China before 2025.

However, they are now facing a swift geopolitical and geoeconomic revolt of the World’s Heartland – from Russia and China to West Asia, and extrapolating to South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and selected latitudes in Latin America.

The turning point came on 26 February, 2022, when Washington’s neocons – in a glaring display of their shallow intellects – decided to freeze and/or steal the reserves of the only nation on the planet equipped with all the commodities that really matter, and with the necessary nous to unleash a momentous shift to a monetary system not anchored in fiat money.

That was the fateful day when the cabal, identified by journalist Seymour Hersh as responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, actually blew the whistle for the high-speed de-dollarization train to leave the station, led by Russia, China, and now – welcome on board – Iran and Saudi Arabia.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/iran-and-saudi-arabia-a-chinese-win-win/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-64503873


The ex- president Khatami said " overthrow of Islamic Republic is neither possible nor desirable . " I once met a man , who told me " The Shah regime would be over by a revolution in four years time . " And this was no prediction . But what happened was not a revolution in a true sense . Much of the same ideology and class that held power , remained intact , and became stronger over time .

Mr Khatami is wrong in saying an overthrow is not possible . It is possible and easy . But he is right in saying it is not desirable . Since there is no alternative than an American backed puppet state , worse than the present administration . What is both possible and desirable , for the democratic forces , is the overthrow of the elements in the security and information services , responsible for using excessive force against demonstrators .

These forces implement the wishes of the reactionary right wing , and are it's vanguard . Disabling these elements that aim , through violence , to either suppress the popular movements , or if not successful , bring about a civil war , where they can launch a coup , in favour of the Shah in exile and separatists and yank interventionist .

The means to achieve this are within the reach of the ordinary people . Imposing a cost for any violent action against the public . Soon the paymasters behind these forces will run out of recruits , who are mostly from deprived and working class backgrounds . The fat cats are too few , to do their own fighting .

I am tired of arguing against the use of shot- guns in crowd control and devastating impact on social stability . These actions are deliberate and perpetrated deliberately against national security , in collusion , I believe , with external forces . The ministries of security and information are compromised by the enemy . There is more evidence in this regard .

@Iranobserver01
Iran is planning to inaugurate a major rail link this summer that completes railway connection between the Caspian Sea in its north and the Persian Gulf in the south.

That is excellent news for all the countries of the Caspian sea, because now they can ship things to Iran and Iran can transfer by rail those things to its south and then onto ships to the rest of the world bypassing choke points that countries can close.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/200912/Iran-and-Afghanistan-Water-warning


Taliban , as well as not supplying the water to Iran , have diverted UN aid to northern Afghanistan tribes . I said before that any recognition of Taliban , should be conditional on their behaviour . And their behaviour lately is far from good . Now any aid Iran gives to Taliban , including discounted oil or fuel , should be conditional to them allowing fair share of water , and direct flow of aid to Northern tribes . If they do not help in this regard , then Iran can obtain fair share from the River by removing the top layer of Dam , with a few missile strikes ! As well as direct cash and other aid to Northern tribes . The UN , should also provide direct aid to Northern areas .


https://en.mehrnews.com/photo/200922/Tulip-farm-in-NW-Iran


Regarding important steps for Iran security , I mentioned five : First was Nuclear deterrent , second was Air force , third was Agriculture ( water management ) , fourth was trade routes and non- Dollar trade , and most important was Democracy ( formation of political parties ) . Important achievements have been made in all areas but the last step . If this step of formation of political parties is completed , then it will safeguard and even guarantee success in all other areas , and be the most useful tool in security under all possible outcomes of : Collapse of government , attempted coup , foreign intervention , war . This can be achieved by a compromise between left and Right parties and leadership should make public attempts in doing this .

If this step of formation of political parties is completed , then it will safeguard and even guarantee success in all other areas , and be the most useful tool in security under all possible outcomes of : Collapse of government , attempted coup , foreign intervention , war .

The CIA loves democracies because perverting democracy is their most precious skill... they love democracy because it is easy to manipulate a significant portion of the population most of the time...

Personally I think democracy is over rated.

The critical thing is to make politicians accountable and that requires a free and independent media that cares about the country and the people... and no country really has that.

Voting for some one promising to do something means nothing... Trump promised a sensible working relationship with Russia... not friendship mind you, just cooperation where the US got some benefit and that is all and he put more sanctions on Russia than any president before him... he also promised to bring US soldiers from foreign wars that had nothing to do with the safety of the US... he got 1,000 soldiers to come home from Syria but they lied about how many were there so they are still there, and Afghanistan was a total cock up and didn't happen till after he was gone from power.

Zelensky promised peace and discussions with Russia and the breakaway regions and did neither.

Trump gets criticised for everything except not following through on his election promises, and Zelensky can do no wrong in the west... though it sounds like his own people are not so happy... but what can they do?

...and that is democracy.

Of course Russia has democracy too and things seem to be rather good for them despite facing off against the entire western world things seem to be ticking over well for them in general.

The American oligarchy and most other predatory economies , only like political forms , as long as they act in their class interests . Therefore class interests always trumps ( get it ? Trumps ) societal , national or international collective interests . It is called real-politics . Democracies do not come about as a result , simply , of elevated class consciousness . They come about , when predatory class relationships are replaced by symbiotic ones . It is an evolutionary process , where organisms or classes during relatively stable conditions and prolonged confrontations for survival , evolve or loose ability , physically or organically , to be predatory . They loose the potential . In the British house of commons , the distance between the left and right side of seats is more than two sword lengths ! In nature most relationships are not symbiotic and result in extinctions and evolution of new forms of great diversity . The longest living organisms on Earth , existing without evolving , like Ants or Horse Shoe crab , are among the democrats / symbiotic / communistic , but are among the minority of relationships .

The longest living organisms on Earth , existing without evolving , like Ants or Horse Shoe crab , are among the democrats / symbiotic / communistic , but are among the minority of relationships .

Ironically the most numerous life form on this planet... bacteria... are generally symbiotic most of the time... otherwise we would all be dead.