EU, ΙMF and Greece and Spending cut

flamming_python wrote:I'm enjoying the drama here to be honest; never expected Tsirpas to go as far as he has.

But I'm afraid that he hasn't really a leg to stand on in this standoff. He's really pissing off the big-boys and these guys are not the type that tolerate disloyalty - nor do they forgive it.

Harkening back to an old civil war maxim - "You, we won't shoot. You - we will hang"

That's why they had the referendum. Population's support is the strongest legs a government can stand on. But yeah, the big boys are pissed.

I had this debate in MP.net, so I will only say this. There is only ONE nation that chose the payback method, asked to Greece regarding its debts and that Nation didn't managed to break even in about half a century, slashing natives all around the world, waging wars and losing its world top spot in the process.

As for austerity, it doesn't work, there is NO austerity campaign as it is that has "saved the day".

The usual top three poster children of Austerity (Eire, Portugal, Latvia) are all in a worse structural state that before the cure. The public debt is worse than before the Austerity "cure", as Austerity means that despite the name, the State has to take responsibility as a intermediate creditor and fiscal intercessor.

Furthermore both countries aren't out of trouble. Latvia has a bigger Public debt, less social protection, same demographic issues. Portugal's debt has almost doubled...through the Austerity measures.

And this isn't even the worst, the worst is that Greece out of the Euro, but in the EU is going to make life miserable for the EU. It's going to hurt like a mother...and that's the best way to get the Balkans back. Show the rest of the sheep that the EU is death an misery for "less competitive economies". As an Albanian I applaud the balls of the Greek people, showing once again, they will stand up and make Germans bleed. And if this is the initial blow to the whole EU edifice, so be it.

zg18 wrote:

Kyo wrote:On time or not, austerity leads to lower GDP which, in turn,  leads to lower fiscal revenues and so, to lesser government expenditures, which in turn leads to lower GDP, turning the whole process into a spiraling black hole.

Yes austerity does lower GDP , but doesn`t necessarily means it lowers revenues. Most countries that do austerity started parallel process to bring grey economy into legal sphere and stronger tax and fiscal discipline. Austerity can work with structural reforms, Germans did it 10 years ago, my neighbours from Serbia are doing it successfully right now.

German "structural reforms" won them 30% more Public debt...The German fiscal "praxis" isn't changing them from number one fraudster spot as the three most recent fiscal leaks showed.

The revenues accrued mostly because the Germans spent in three years crazy money to modernize (on public money mostly) the production apparatus of their mid-range companies (the biggest cash earner in Germoney). It is what Tsipras was asking. And it is what the Germans aren't willing to do. Because you just don't need competitors in Europe. And this doesn't even regard Greece, it regards the rest of the EU. If the guys take debt to renew their productivity means, education etc, you don't have that famed Germoney edge. You become one of the guys. That's why there's money for Poland and the Czech's to ease their utility for Germoney, but there's no money for the Greek economy (bar their banks bailout). BTW guess which country in Europe you can still pay in cash over 10K...Yeah starts with G.

Serbia's structural reform is akin Albania's, meaningless until you don't stop the demographic bleeding.

This isn't about austerity, this is about Germany being back and showing the rest of the kids it won't tolerate "troubles".

Edit: one thing though, you're right, done in time the whole "Austerity" charade works. Germany was in the gutter, cheated, then invented rules so no one would cheat again. And I'm willing to bet that if tomorrow Germoney gets back in the gutter and needs to "cheat" it will go all wurstel on the EZ, and the EZ will take it with senf and weissbier, only to ask for the next kid's head. Assholes always win, because they're assholes.

Edit2: BTW Spain's woes are to be compared to their GDP loss as well, 6 years on, they still have recovered their 08 GDP (they're 250 billion USD short, that's why the debt has exploded as well). On 2008 their GDP was 1.65K bln USD, now it's 1.4K bln USD. That's the problem with Austerity in Spain. It dug a relatively low public debt way deeper than it should have, while the real assholes with structurally impossible to repay debt are giving lessons.

OK Syriza raped the Greeks. It's official now but I already gave you this piece of information a year ago.

Hannibal Barca wrote:OK Syriza raped the Greeks. It's official now but I already gave you this piece of information a year ago.

Unless you wanted a rerun of the civil war in Greece, they did what they could. It's very difficult to understand why Tsipras would change so little from the former plan and still get accepted...Uncle Sam did its magic. Vae Victis, Alea Jacta Est etc...

KoTeMoRe wrote:Unless you wanted a rerun of the civil war in Greece, they did what they could. It's very difficult to understand why Tsipras would change so little from the former plan and still get accepted...Uncle Sam did its magic. Vae Victis, Alea Jacta Est etc...

This greek tragedy is yet to unfold.

Told you they would fold.
And now they're gonna be punished worse than before - for disobedience.

Gotta laugh at russian-insider with their ridiculous overoptimism about everything.

Greece ain't going nowhere.

flamming_python wrote:Gotta laugh at russian-insider with their ridiculous overoptimism about everything.

Greece ain't going nowhere.

Ironically, the articles of their Greek author Alexander Mercouris are still worth reading.
He does not sugarcoat Syriza's failure.

flamming_python wrote:Told you they would fold.
And now they're gonna be punished worse than before - for disobedience.

Gotta laugh at russian-insider with their ridiculous overoptimism about everything.

Greece ain't going nowhere.

Off course no one want Greece to get out of anywhere. But punishing Greece is not on the table, right now Uncle Sam just flashed the big picture to Angie. You fuck with Greece, you get raped on the TTP. That's the problem for Greece they're too important strategically to get tossed economically. However at some point the agony would have to end. It just wasn't now and Tsipras didn't want to be remembered as the man who torched Greece, which was basically the aim of the Eurodebils.

Syriza did very well for what it is worth. It's very bad for us that just want this slavery to end, but alas to no avail. Hope dies last.

On the other side, this also means no REAL reform within the Eurozone is going to happen and the next crisis, will double the fun.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:OK Syriza raped the Greeks. It's official now but I already gave you this piece of information a year ago.

Unless you wanted a rerun of the civil war in Greece, they did what they could. It's very difficult to understand why Tsipras would change so little from the former plan and still get accepted...Uncle Sam did its magic. Vae Victis, Alea Jacta Est etc...

Let me have better (sic) intelligence about Greece than you.
Those voices about civil war and this and that and American intervention etc is total crap.
People are so staggered by the economic decline of the last 8 years that the country was never more peaceful than it is since the impose of the capital controls.
There are so many people that are affected by the austerity, and is the younger and more active people, that it is further memorandums which will cause explosion and not the other way around.
Real politic is to default on the debt and devalue not to try to match Germany with hard currency and no tariffs in a common market, this is like facing the panzer in open ground.

Hannibal Barca wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:OK Syriza raped the Greeks. It's official now but I already gave you this piece of information a year ago.

Unless you wanted a rerun of the civil war in Greece, they did what they could. It's very difficult to understand why Tsipras would change so little from the former plan and still get accepted...Uncle Sam did its magic. Vae Victis, Alea Jacta Est etc...

Let me have better (sic) intelligence about Greece than you.
Those voices about civil war and this and that and American intervention etc is total crap.
People are so staggered by the economic decline of the last 8 years that the country was never more peaceful than it is since the impose of the capital controls.
There are so many people that are affected by the austerity, and is the younger and more active people, that it is further memorandums which will cause explosion and not the other way around.
Real politic is to default on the debt and devalue not to try to match Germany with hard currency and no tariffs in a common market, this is like facing the panzer in open ground.

Ehehehehheehehe:

Let us chek a number of variables:

1. Demography: Grece's two top ethnicities have shrank respectively of 600K (Greeks) and 20K (Albanians) from the start of the crisis.
2. Economics: The decline of the Economy (bar the suicide numbers) has also put in halt whole swathes of local cooperatives. While big Agrobiz groups HAVE ben profiteering. There has been a concentration trend where smaller entities have been bankrupt and/or bought by bigger entities. That goes hand to hand with the dismal response the previous governments abuses by the State. As it is only 20 people have been jailed during the last four years for graft, corruption or embezzlement. That IS a problem and has fueled a lot of anger. In Ioannina they almost hanged their former mayor (from ND).
3. Default: Let us take the default route (that seems so appealing to you). Defaulting now, would mean having to introduce a new currency. That takes at least two months from printing to issuing to re-evaluation (inflation/deflation). Two months that Greece doesn't have in liquidity. Add to that the fact that the Germans WILL sever all ties with the Greek banking sector on mere Schadenfreude that means that all that effort to have a primary surplus is gone, dusted.
4. I wholehartedly agree with you on one point. The Common market was a colossal mistake given the isolation of Greece from the rest of Europe. The choice to tak Greece on was a political one, the Europeans know that and that's the whole US intervention lever. Kick Greece out of the Eurozone now and Greece is going to sink VERY fast if it stays in the common market. So the Greeks will be forced to understand that the best way is to flip the bird to the EU as a whole. That can't happen with Washington, and there's the whole "US intervention" idea. Greece getting out of the EY = Anyone can get in to buy it out. Same for Cyprus that was litterally made to default in order to purge it from the Russian money (at no avail).

It's too late to default now without a clear stimulus plan, because the Greek Economy is in tatters. Unless you want to devaluate ad nauseam like before the Euro (300% in 15 years, let that sink in) without any tangible result, the only variable you can rely on is a better fiscal revenue. That revenue is conditionned by growth...growth with or without the Euro, within the Eurozone is nihil.

Looks like the Americans have pressured the Europeans into giving concessions. Tsirpas sounds very pleased about the result.

KoTeMoRe wrote:growth with or without the Euro, within the Eurozone is nihil.

But Spain is creating jobs from existing jobs and thanks to this wizardry de Guindos is Germany's new favourite.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Looks like the Americans have pressured the Europeans into giving concessions. Tsirpas sounds very pleased about the result.

What concessions? Allowing EU to keep footing the bill? Let's wait and see how those unspoken assurances everyone in Greece is talking about of a debt cut down the road turn out.

flamming_python wrote:Looks like the Americans have pressured the Europeans into giving concessions. Tsirpas sounds very pleased about the result.

There's only a 27 billion Swap so far from the First package to the second (thus from ECB bonds to EFSF). There are no other concessions, most funds will again go to interbanking consolidation. Tsipras looks relived because he can go on and lose his next elections with grace, but there's no other non-corrupt party out there that would want to deal with that plan with a 10k foot pole.

Frankly the only pressure the US might have put over the Germans is a retaliatory move on the TTiP and the fact Ze Germans said yes...

KoTeMoRe wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Looks like the Americans have pressured the Europeans into giving concessions. Tsirpas sounds very pleased about the result.

There's only a 27 billion Swap so far from the First package to the second (thus from ECB bonds to EFSF). There are no other concessions, most funds will again go to interbanking consolidation. Tsipras looks relived because he can go on and lose his next elections with grace, but there's no other non-corrupt party out there that would want to deal with that plan with a 10k foot pole.

Frankly the only pressure the US might have put over the Germans is a retaliatory move on the TTiP and the fact Ze Germans said yes...

The only pressure Germany feels is the Hand from the US in its rectum. They have them by the guts, literally. They jump when they are told too. They do not follow a different policy, if you believe they hesitate then they do that to believe there are different policies, there never were since 45.

There is no Greek bailout deal ...yet

Greece has NOT reached a bailout deal in any way shape or form. What DID happen was Greece’s Prime Minister agreed to try and push a new austerity program through Greece’s parliament.
IF he can do this, and IF the Greek government agrees to the austerity program then NEGOTIATIONS (not a deal) can begin as to whether or not Greece should receive another bailout.
Put simply, Greece has THREE DAYS to agree to an austerity program in which it will hand over assets worth 25% of its GDP to the EU… at which time TALKS (again not a deal) COULD begin regarding a potential third Greek Bailout.

Violent Clashes Outside Greek Parliament as Leaders Vote on EU Bailout

Greeks are so funny.

They protest endlessly about the EU not humiliating them, taking away their sovereignty, or austerity, etc... but they themselves are not ready for any other direction than towards the EU.

It's a completely bizarre situation when the majority of Greeks say 'no' to austerity; which is the unconditional demand pressed upon them by their benefactors - but in opinion polls also state that they in their majority are for the EU and against any alternative directions such as towards BRICS/SCO.

I mean which is it? Either accept the conditions of the EU, or don't and find other alternatives to the EU - the Greeks seem to think they can have it both ways, like a spoiled child that has been given everything for free up until now, and expects that everyone will continue to accomodate them in the future too.
The Greeks are completely disconnected from the real world and how harsh it is out there; most countries do not have an economic union to balance their budget or provide funds, they have to do everything themselves. The Greeks are desperate to avoid becoming such a country, but at the same time they want to dictate conditions to the EU. Doesn't work that way.

Merkel and Hollande paid lip-service to the results of the Greek vote over a telephone conversation, saying that the people's choice in Greece 'must be respected'.
Of course this was a load of bosch, as fast-forward just one week, and the EU and Greece have worked out a deal; whatever the details, and austerity is still going full-steam ahead as planned.
Was just more smoke and mirrors by the Greek government, an action of no consenquence - no-one cares about the Greek people's opinions on austerity and that's a hard fact. The Greeks however, disconnected from the real world as they are, seemed to think that Germany would have to listen to them. Why?

I don't want to give an opinion on austerity, whether it's right or wrong or whatever; I'm not an economist. But I will say that 'my house, my rules'. It's Germany's house, and Germany's rules. No ifs, no buts.
If Greece doesn't want to accept austerity - then it always has a choice not to; and that choice is not to whine and winge and conduct populist referendums of no consenquence - it's to say sayonara to the EU, leave the Eurozone, and start working on alternatives for its future. There's always a choice, and that's the one the Greeks have.
If they don't want to take it - then fine, so just sit down, accept the EU's terms and keep quiet.

George1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Greeks are so funny.

They protest endlessly about the EU not humiliating them, taking away their sovereignty, or austerity, etc... but they themselves are not ready for any other direction than towards the EU.

It's a completely bizarre situation when the majority of Greeks say 'no' to austerity; which is the unconditional demand pressed upon them by their benefactors - but in opinion polls also state that they in their majority are for the EU and against any alternative directions such as towards BRICS/SCO.

I mean which is it? Either accept the conditions of the EU, or don't and find other alternatives to the EU - the Greeks seem to think they can have it both ways, like a spoiled child that has been given everything for free up until now, and expects that everyone will continue to accomodate them in the future too.
The Greeks are completely disconnected from the real world and how harsh it is out there; most countries do not have an economic union to balance their budget or provide funds, they have to do everything themselves. The Greeks are desperate to avoid becoming such a country, but at the same time they want to dictate conditions to the EU. Doesn't work that way.

Merkel and Hollande paid lip-service to the results of the Greek vote over a telephone conversation, saying that the people's choice in Greece 'must be respected'.
Of course this was a load of bosch, as fast-forward just one week, and the EU and Greece have worked out a deal; whatever the details, and austerity is still going full-steam ahead as planned.
Was just more smoke and mirrors by the Greek government, an action of no consenquence - no-one cares about the Greek people's opinions on austerity and that's a hard fact. The Greeks however, disconnected from the real world as they are, seemed to think that Germany would have to listen to them. Why?

I don't want to give an opinion on austerity, whether it's right or wrong or whatever; I'm not an economist. But I will say that 'my house, my rules'. It's Germany's house, and Germany's rules. No ifs, no buts.
If Greece doesn't want to accept austerity - then it always has a choice not to; and that choice is not to whine and winge and conduct populist referendums of no consenquence - it's to say sayonara to the EU, leave the Eurozone, and start working on alternatives for its future. There's always a choice, and that's the one the Greeks have.
If they don't want to take it - then fine, so just sit down and be quiet.

Greece hasnt the potential to enter BRICS and has no other path thats the truth. It might sound a bit crazy but many people in Greece they believe that Putin will give us money and just forgive them to us without lending. It is the false consideration of the reality of a nation that believe in messiahs and it is unwilling to live on its own

Those aren't the funniest ones, the funniest ones are the ones who unequivocally say no to austerity, but still insist on staying in the EU! As if they have some inate entitlement to dictate conditions.
And such funny people make up a huge number of Greeks, owing to the near 2/3rds majority that said 'no' to austerity, and the similar proportion of people who said in opinion polls that they don't want to leave the EU in favour of BRICS/Russia/whoever.

There is another path that Greece can follow; that of exit from the EU and becoming more like Serbia, Macedonia, Belarus or other countries outside the EU, with possible integration into the Eurasian Union and BRICS Bank later on.
It's just that the potential consenquences for ordinary people can end up harsher than any austerity the EU imposes - it's a long, hard road, albeit I think in the long-term it will be healthier for economical development than the current strategy of staying on benefits from the EU.
But anyway, if the Greeks are not ready for that long, hard road - so fine; but why complain about austerity then? It's the easier alternative for them - they should be thanking Germany for the austerity option.