lyle6 wrote:I don't see the point. The Turks have never shown any hint of gratitude towards any action the Russians have done that was to their benefit. Why would you expect they'd change their attitude in the future?
In my opinion there's not much sense in trying to tug Turkey from NATO either. They know the only reason they even have the latitude to operate on their own is due entirely to NATO covering for them. Otherwise they'd long be steamrolled by Russia and the concert of neighbors that have an ax to grind against them. Its a nice thought to have, but the Turks would never make it that easy for you, as much as they could stomach being stripped of what little fiefdom they are trying to establish.
I tend to agree, Erdogan's Turkey is almost more trouble than its worth
If entering into a Russian-led alliance or economic pact, they'd make just as much trouble for Russia as they would for NATO.
But I'm not really arguing for that. I'm arguing for weakening NATO and developing multi-polarity. A disruptive effect against the primary adversarial alliance that's arming itself against Russia is very much a net positive, even if it doesn't end with Turkey being loyal to some kind of Eurasian framework that Russia would hope to include Turkey in. The more such 'independent' actors we have in the Middle East and Europe, the better it ultimately is for Russia.
Because Russia is weak against an entire alliance, but stronger than any single one of those states individually and can always leverage ties with a friendly Egypt, a friendly Syria, etc... if the Turks decide to make problems for Russia.
Russia can work with Turkey on certain issues. But Russia is also free to work with Egypt or Iran on others. Russia has its own relations with every state, the main thing is that these states don't answer to Washington and impose sanctions on Russia; that's already something Russia benefits from. They don't have to answer to Russia.
But then there's the second argument, which is really that Erdogan is a passing fad. He jumps into every intervention, but that's more him really and his circle, rather than Turkey the state. And there are many circles in Turkey that are interested in building better ties and more integration with Russia, with China, and so on. In time, Turkey can continue to build economic ties with Russia, with the Eurasian Union, become more integrated, build ties with the rest of the BRICS, and find its place in a developing world, and build more stable ties with its neighbours to become a more predictable country.
This business with NATO cannot last as the US is now calling the bluff and imposing serious sanctions against Ankara. What are their choices at this point? Either bow down and come back hat in hand to the Western community, or continue their present course. Which do you think would be preferable from the perspective of Russia?