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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Fri Nov 28, 2014 7:44 am

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Oh great. Stupid bohonks in Calgary are crying over holdomor again, saying how we should all remember evil Russia.

    Guess we should remember evil Brits for nearly wiping out a race of people, evil americans for enslaving blacks, evil turks for armenian genocide....

    God, these people are far too much. Only line of defense is holdomor for their racist and stupid viewpoint.

    These Holodomor blood libelists are the worst sort of scum.   The whole of western Ukraine (Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, etc.) were
    under Polish rule during the 1930s.  
    The forced collectivization famines extended from Soviet Ukraine to Kazakhstan, including the Volga
    region of Russia.  The people of the Donbass lived through the Holodomor yet the Nazi-allied vermin from west Ukraine uses the
    famine to beat them over the head with!

    The obscenity is mind numbing.   The attempt to paint the forced collectivization famines of the 1930s as some sort of Russian
    genocide of Ukrainians takes the cake for revisionist filth.   The Bandera-loving Ukrainians in Canada and the USA like to make
    up stories how Russians either 1) did not starve while Ukrainians did or 2) that the Russians were settled in the Donbas after all
    the original inhabitants died out.

    I have some observations pertaining to point (2) above:

    1) Show me the evidence!  I have not seen a single survey of the residents of the Donbas which would verify that they
    are all there from after the famine.  Proof by assertion from Banderits originating in Lwow is simply not good enough.  I have
    heard people from the Donbas saying how the have family graves they tend to from the 1880s.   Also, there are Serb and
    Greek communities there.   Clearly these did not settle there during the 1930s and are evidence that the Banderites are
    spewing hate fiction.

    2) The Albanian majority in Kosovo is due to the fact that many of them settled there during WWII and after as Serbs
    were ethnically cleansed from the region.  The Albanians were Nazi allies and the SS Skanderberg Division did its share of
    atrocities.   After WWII, Tito prevented Serb refugees from returning to Kosovo (in the name of brotherly love
    and ethnic peace, one supposes).  NATO has never taken these facts into account, all it cares about is that Albanians
    are a majority in Kosovo.  Well, Russians are a majority in Crimea and the Donbas.   What is good for NATO is good for Russia
    unless you believe in different standards and laws for everyone.


    I like to think of myself as reasonably clued up. But thats never really dawned on me.

    My family left Kiev in the Stalin era mainly down to Stalin attempting some Ukrainification, which he later dumped. All part of this " chauvinism of nations" doctrine (because he was Georgian).

    But yes, the W Ukr nutters are all crowing on about this libellous crap of "Holodomor" and yet their forebears weren't even in the Soviet Union at the time!!Most people who starved ie due to famine NOT something deliberate, were actually pro Russian or Russian and living in what is now the East of the Ukr or elsewhere in the USSR.

    This Holodomor garbage I am sure comes from Washington with Canadians who's ancestors were from Lvov etc.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9 - Page 35 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  higurashihougi Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:05 am

    Would like to ask your opinion about this article:

    They are neigiotating. Porkie cannot stop the war at the moment. Because if the war is stopped, people can easily turn their attention to the MH17 crisis, and the criminal deeds of Porkie and Kyiv facist in this event will be exposed.

    Meanwhile, the West is trying to get the industrial area of Donbass.

    And these dogs are tricking each other.

    Porkie want to trick the West into a no-ending war in Ukrainia. Porkie is hoping for the war funds from the West and hopes that he can steal some parts in this fund. However this cannot happen because right inside the Kyiv goverment, there are still independent figures who reject the domination of the West. And Porkie still want a victory to avenge the humiliating defeat of Kyiv forces.

    But he cannot be successful. The reason is that, Russian military level is far superior than the West.

    In Novorossiya, Russia provide information based on radar, AWACS, satellites to the separatists. And Russia use the information to reorganize and check the originally unorganized and divided separatist insurgents. Donbass separatists then make use of Russian advices and info, and then successfully defeat the attacks of Porkie.

    How long the war can be ? Don't really know. But the what we can know for sure is that Porkie can't win. Ukie will suffer more and more, from lack of funds to lack of weapons. But the mad-dogs, war-like scums in Kyiv and in Washington DC will use that reason to demand for more funds, more investment, and the political scum will steal money from these funds for themselves. And the war can go on forever, because the mad-dogs, political scums can eat money forever.

    That is how the U.S. make a war, for the political scums to eat money, and innocent people die. That's why we have Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    The very dangerous thing for the West is the level of competency and veterancy of Novorossian insurgents. One element in that competency is the growth and development of technology. New technologies in fact are very beneficial for the insurgents and guerillas. For example, in the past guerillas needed RPG and cannon to deal with tanks. Now they can have ATGMs, very convenient. Another example, today we can have UAV bombers with can do (some of) the work of B-52 in the past.

    You can see, there are SAM, UAV, ATGM,... which are quite suitable or are specialized for guerillas, and for Novorossiyan insurgents. With the matureness, competency, veterancy and experience of Novorossiyan fighters, they can effectively use them with small modification.

    Imagine the fate of the West, when passive radars become guerilla radars of Muslims in Iraq Syria Afghan. The guerillas can use it to shot down fighters, transporting airplanes, dominate the air... And imagine that these radars walk into the space of New York, Paris... or crazy nerds, crazy university students create the self-made UAVs and use them the bombard the White House ....

    =====

    The West want Russia to take part in the war Ukraina, just like the event of Spain in 1936-39. But the West is wrong.

    You have to know that, the event of WWI and the 1939-1940 period of WWII is that, newborn, new power like Germany and Japan wanted to destroy the old and rotten colonial system of the West in order to gain a bigger share of power, and they made war because of that. The event of WWIII, a war with no killing, no gun firing, is the same thing.

    And in WWIII, the opponent of the old rotten system is not Germany, but China and India. And unlike WWI and WWII, in this WWIII, Russia is in the same side of China and India.

    In this economical world war III, the BRICS is destroying the rotten system of the West. For example, most of Latin America is rejecting the U.S. and is gathering around the leadership of Brazil. The south parts of Africa is following Mandela's country. And China and India... well, ha ha, they are growing with amazing speed while the West is still stagnating.

    That's it. World War III has already begun. But Russia does not need to intervene in anyone. Russia does not need to go into Ukraina. The Trotskists dogs has already run away to Ukie. And in Russia, Stalin looks at that and says "ha ha ha, I win".

    In WWII Germany attacked Russia. But in WWIII, China and India do not attack Russia.

    In 1936, Russia sent troops into Spain. But in 2014, Russia does not need to send troops into Ukraina.

    In 1936, there were dogs of Leon Trosky who were dreaming about an unreal global revolution. As a result, Russia spent an unneccessary and unsuccessful war in Spain. But today, Troskits are gone. Putin does not send troop to Kyiv.

    And Putin has put the facist rotten Kyiv goverment into a war with no escape, no ending. The Kyiv facist cannot end this war, because they want to eat money from the West. And if the war is stopped, people will turn attention to the Mh17 and all the criminal deeds of facist regime in the MH17 will be exposed.

    Meanwhile, The West is crazy about Donbass industrial area.

    That's it. The West want to make Russia intervene into Ukraina. So that the political scumbag in Bavaria and in the West can become the new Hitler. But they fail.

    You have to know that, no matter whether Russia did, Nazi Germany critically had to attack the West. They want to destroy the rotten colonial system of the West so that they can have a greater share of power in the globe.

    But then the political scumbag of Hitler wanted to attack Russia. If Hitler had continued the attack onto England, he would have needed more aircrafts, warships, transporters, tanks. And the political scumbags who lived by simple weapons and machine pisptols would have fallen out of favour. The political scumbags and Hitler told the people that, their machine pistols and simple weapons could destroy Russia. And they attacked Russia. And in 1945 Russia went directly into Hitler's stronghold in Berlin to search for him. And Hitler commited suicide.

    Today. Although our dear Merkel has to live toghether with some political scums from Bavaria and Denmark who eat American shit, but they are the minority.

    Today, the Axis powers are China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa,... and they have Russia on their side, unlike WWI and WWII.

    Therefore Putin does not need to send troops to Ukraina.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:33 pm

    Cassad has just published another BS report about Ukrainian casualties. According to some "Interregional Fund for the Protection of Strategic Security"(I have no clue what it is) - Ukrainian casualties since April up until now are ca. 20,000 dead which includes

    1. 3450 members of the Right Sector
    2. several thousand militiamen from National Guard units
    3. 11 715 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, mostly from:
    - 25th Airmobile Brigade
    - 95th Airmobile Brigade
    - 79th Airmobile Brigade
    - 24th Motorized Brigade
    - 51th Mechanized Brigade
    - 72th Mechanized Brigade

    Make a simple calculation - I don't know how strong a typical Ukrainian brigade is but let's assume for the sake of Cassad's argument that it's 4500 men strong (a very large brigade). 4500*6=27000 men - two medium size divisions. If we believe his argumentation, then we are led to believe that almost 1 out of 2 (most casualties were supposedly sustained by these units) soldiers serving in these units was killed. Shocked If we exclude non-combat units then how many fighting men died? 75% Shocked Broken down to daily casualties it would give us about 50 killed/day. Given that for most of April, May and June pretty much nothing took place and 75% of fighting was done from July up to early September, what casualties did they sustain in that period? 100 killed per day? Shocked

    Someone may neg rep me for this but you know... I'm just using my brain to doubt.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:39 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:Cassad has just published another BS report about Ukrainian casualties. According to some "Interregional Fund for the Protection of Strategic Security"(I have no clue what it is) - Ukrainian casualties since April up until now are ca. 20,000 dead which includes

    1. 3450 members of the Right Sector
    2. several thousand militiamen from National Guard units
    3. 11 715 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, mostly from:
       - 25th Airmobile Brigade
       - 95th Airmobile Brigade
       - 79th Airmobile Brigade
       - 24th Motorized Brigade
       - 51th Mechanized Brigade
       - 72th Mechanized Brigade

    Make a simple calculation - I don't know how strong a typical Ukrainian brigade is but let's assume for the sake of Cassad's argument that it's 4500 men strong (a very large brigade). 4500*6=27000 men - two medium size divisions. If we believe his argumentation, then we are led to believe that almost 1 out of 2 (most casualties were supposedly sustained by these units) soldiers serving in these units was killed. Shocked If we exclude non-combat units then how many fighting men died? 75% Shocked Broken down to daily casualties it would give us about 50 killed/day. Given that for most of April, May and June pretty much nothing took place and 75% of fighting was done from July up to early September, what casualties did they sustain in that period? 100 killed per day? Shocked

    Someone may neg rep me for this but you know... I'm just using my brain to doubt.

    Your hand waving appeals to "plausibility" is what is truly BS.

    If these casualty estimates had no relation to reality then the Kiev regime would not need to have had several rounds
    of recruitment. The regime started with about 45000 men and today it has managed to increase this number to between
    55 and 60 thousand. Losing 20000 men over half a year in full blown conventional warfare with incompetent military
    command and the use of modern MLRS systems is totally consistent. I note how you do not provide your own estimate.
    From your tone you probably think it is 2000 men or less. Now that would be hilariously implausible.

    We are not dealing with some US air assault on Iraq here. So the regime casualties cannot be expected to be small.
    As proof of the incompetence of the regime forces command take the formation of one cauldron after another until the
    ceasefire. According to regime soldiers they have lost thousands in these cauldrons alone.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:58 pm

    Isn't 50-60k for Donbass only?

    The reason why I doubt this estimate is that it would break pretty much all trends in battlefield lethality evident in industrial/post industrial warfare - both in total number of casualties (a freaking high number for a relatively small army) and in proportion of various casualty types (dead/wounded/missing/captured). If they claimed 20,000 TOTAL casualties (dead, wounded, captured) - it would be a plausible estimation and I would believe them. But they claim 20,000 killed - which not only makes a ridiculously high casualty rate but it would also make the Donbass war the only war in modern history (since roughly 17th century) in which the number of dead exceeds the number of wounded Shocked (several times - unless you believe that the total number of wounded on UKR side is greater than the number of people in all Ukrainian military formations currently active Shocked)

    Hell, even 800,000 strong Iraqi Army lost only about 30,000 dead and 75,000 wounded after one month of the most intensive aerial campaign in history + 4 days of devastating ground campaign... Where is logic in their claims?
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:48 pm

    Most reasonable estimates of Ukrainian casualties I've heard of pin the number as somewhere around 8000.

    Hard to say if these figures include the 'unofficial' Ukrainian pro-regime combatants or just the ones under the direct command of the Ukr military and interior ministry (police).
    Most of those battalions are technically subordinated to the army, interior ministry, SBU, etc... but tend to act semi-independently, and also there are some private oligarch-sponsored volunteer & mercenary groups and so on that haven't been 'legalized' by Kiev yet. So hell knows.

    Number of rebel casualties is unknown. Wouldn't be surprised if its significantly lower though. They have been outgunned and outnumber all throughout but also they've been doing almost all the defending, encircling & ambushing, not to mention the intense period of fighting shortly before the Minsk agreement when Russia stepped up its assistance and Ukrainian columns started getting annihilated with massive casualties.
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    Post  Firebird Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:31 pm

    I think the Ukrainian casualties are high.
    Just think of the tragedy of Russia's campaign in the 1st Chechen War.

    The Donbass soldiers were executing a guerilla campaign pretty well. Especially because the Ukr Nazis were morons. And because Donbass could tap into defecting forces and stockpiled items from the Soviet era/other supporting sources.

    Often a figure of 6 casualties for one death is given. That was the case in the US invasion of Iraq (2nd one). But they had fairly good medical support and were fighting a weak enemy. Unlike the junta vs Donbass.

    I'm sure many Nazis/junta soldiers were lost. But many would have been injured, or defected to Donbass or walked across the Russian border etc, or just went missing in action ie refused to fight.

    As for exact figures, maybe the junta "lost" 20k soldiers. But that doesn't mean 20k were killed.
    Just my guesswork.

    Anyway, I hope Donbass, Novorossiya make sure the threat of the junta and whoever is assisting it is smashed to smithereens. Its appalling to think that nearly 70yrs after the Great Patriotic War there are still Nazi vermin with their shit.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:49 pm

    Hell, even 800,000 strong Iraqi Army lost only about 30,000 dead and 75,000 wounded after one month of the most intensive aerial campaign in history + 4 days of devastating ground campaign... Where is logic in their claims?

    The Iraqi Army was a reasonably trained army that surrendered fairly quickly.

    The Ukrainian army was in a pathetic state and was supplimented in numbers with idiots wanting to go and kill some people but likely with little real training to do so... in other words lots of cannon fodder.

    In many ways Chechnia for the Ukraine.
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    Post  Vann7 Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:46 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:Isn't 50-60k for Donbass only?

    The reason why I doubt this estimate is that it would break pretty much all trends in battlefield lethality evident in industrial/post industrial warfare - both in total number of casualties (a freaking high number for a relatively small army) and in proportion of various casualty types (dead/wounded/missing/captured). If they claimed 20,000 TOTAL casualties (dead, wounded, captured) - it would be a plausible estimation and I would believe them. But they claim 20,000 killed - which not only makes a ridiculously high casualty rate but it would also make the Donbass war the only war in modern history (since roughly 17th century) in which the number of dead exceeds the number of wounded Shocked (several times - unless you believe that the total number of wounded on UKR side is greater than the number of people in all Ukrainian military formations currently active Shocked)

    Hell, even 800,000 strong Iraqi Army lost only about 30,000 dead and 75,000 wounded after one month of the most intensive aerial campaign in history + 4 days of devastating ground campaign... Where is logic in their claims?

    I have no idea of the numbers... but there IS [ first hand evidence from the ukraine army leaders that kiev is artificially minimizing the casualties and losses of their side... i saw a video.. (i think it was the ukie with a funny big head) that was saying that when the defense minister claim that 15 soldiers died.. that in reality was 150. and there is another video where Ukie army was discussing how they were being trashed by "the Russian army" as they call the Rebels. That they lost 3 major brigades units with about 4500 to 10,000 losses.. (not sure of what they mean..) and that was in about few weeks.. when the cauldrons captured /encircle about 8,000 ukie soldiers..
    So make no mistake the casualties of the ukie army are huge..



    That video was uploaded before the Rebels began a major offensive where they advanced in all fronts and on the offensive towards mariupol.. so after that video it got worse for the ukie army. So if i were to guess.. the losses of ukie army have to be in the 10,000 at least! and as high as 20,000. That does not include wounded people.. that should be 10,000+. What Pro Russian sources were saying is that Ukies casualties/killed/wounded combined were in the 30,000+ and theirs in the 5,000.
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    Post  Regular Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:30 am

    Well I hate guessing, but it's defiantly bigger number than Ukrainian reports say, but it's not as bad as pro sep sources say too. Somewhere in the middle. Let god sort it out.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:01 am

    Just some humor... Very Happy

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    Post  TR1 Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:35 am

    Cossad just shills anything pro-rebel he can get his hands on.

    3500 right sector dead?

    Rofl. Does right sector even have 1/2 that number of armed troops in the Donbass?
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    Post  etaepsilonk Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:32 am

    flamming_python wrote:Most reasonable estimates of Ukrainian casualties I've heard of pin the number as somewhere around 8000.

    "Opposition block" says 14000.
    All those numbers are just guesstimates anyway. But we can look at the number of reported battle losses to get the idea of the lowest estimate:

    1000 in slaviansk, according to steshin;
    About 2000 near lugansk;
    10000 in border cauldron (three brigades, plus some battalions practically wiped out);
    Several thousand in ilovaisk;
    Several thousand in shahtersk;
    Maybe up to 1000 in amvrosijevka;
    And so on.

    All in all 20000+ dead is entirely possible.

    Another thing is the extreme importance of entrenchment positions for protection. I think some study about iraqi army in gulf war revealed that lack of these measures can increase your casualties exponentially, due to effectiveness of modern artillery (and aviation).
    As a result, UA army sitting in stacked bases under grad fire certainly doesn't help to reduce their losses.


    Not to mention the astonishing use of friggin' mobile phones, lighting up like a christmas tree in display of the nearest ELINT device.
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    Post  Werewolf Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:36 am

    I don't know why some people are acting "Suprised" about the inflated and diminished numbers of casualities, both have to keep some Propaganda running to keep Moral at some level or inflate their achievements to boost their moral and gain more volunteers.

    Fact is that the casualties on ukr army side range from 2-8 times higher than what they claim, how much won't come out for long period of time, especially casualties among foreigners (mercenaries/NATO) are kept secret, because "there are no" officialy, it is a struggle of small "innocent and poor country" against a "violent empire".
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    Post  Regular Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:40 am

    So what do You all think about infighting between LNR separatists and Cossacks? Prapor and Shakhter are dead along many other men. Mozgovoi could be next as he was threatened before.
    Makes me think that LNR is same as Ukrainian gov. It shows us that Russia doesn't have full control over them and in peace time without Russian pressure seps will kill themselves. Meh DNR and LNR are junta by themselves now.
    Antimaidan Donetsk members want to ask Strelkov back begging on their knees and say after he left things got much worse . Listen what they think about current situation.
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    Post  arpakola Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:28 pm

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    Post  sepheronx Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:58 pm

    Regular wrote:So what do You all think about infighting between LNR separatists and Cossacks? Prapor and Shakhter are dead along many other men. Mozgovoi could be next as he was threatened before.
    Makes me think that LNR is same as Ukrainian gov. It shows us that Russia doesn't have full control over them and in peace time without Russian pressure seps will kill themselves. Meh DNR and LNR are junta by themselves now.

    Antimaidan Donetsk members want to ask Strelkov back begging on their knees and say after he left things got much worse . Listen what they think about current situation.


    You will have to update me, but who are the two you mentioned that are dead? How? As well, what is technically the situation? Infighting is quite common in most of rebellions. Happening and happened in Libya, Iraq and now in Syria as well. Politicians causing problems? Whats new.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:06 pm

    Look at Azov battalion and how they've changed. They now look like a fairy typical NATO army:
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9 - Page 35 NrT_cScCgyY
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    Post  TR1 Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:14 pm

    Which means nothing if they are still barely competent and operating vs rebels on rebel ground.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:34 pm

    Give them some time and they will be integrated into UKR army as another battalion or regiment as several other battalions were/are

    BTW - what do they have NATO advisors for? Laughing
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    Post  Regular Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    You will have to update me, but who are the two you mentioned that are dead? How? As well, what is technically the situation? Infighting is quite common in most of rebellions. Happening and happened in Libya, Iraq and now in Syria as well. Politicians causing problems? Whats new.
    Probably You seen their videos posted here.
    Use google translate here
    http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1921560.html
    It really pissed me off.
    Here is interview with Prapor
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RF7JRPxUYI
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    Post  Regular Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:42 pm

    Well looks are nothing. Separatists got nice equipment at the begging of active conflict, but now it seems they are only getting surplus.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:54 pm

    Given the current state of the UKR army, Russia would need no more than 2 divisions to reach Lvov. THey simply lack the political will to intervene on a bigger scale and therefore we have a trench warfare-like war.
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    Post  Regular Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:32 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:Given the current state of the UKR army, Russia would need no more than 2 divisions to reach Lvov. THey simply lack the political will to intervene on a bigger scale and therefore we have a trench warfare-like war.
    What is the point of occupying such vast territory? Russia would spend a fortune trying to keep these lands. With no gain at all.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9 - Page 35 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  As Sa'iqa Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:44 pm

    They would not need to keep them. Seizing southeastern Ukraine (Mariupol, Zaporozhe, Odessa, Kharkov, Melitpol, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk) would be enough and the local population would not give a damn.

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