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    Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

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    Tai Hai Chen

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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:15 pm

    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:I see Iran supply Yasser suicide drones and large caliber sniper rifles and Kornet missiles to Armenia later this month. These are used very effectively in Yemen and decimated KSA and UAE ground forces.


    Why would Iran do this? They have good relations with Turkey and decent with Azerbaijan.

    Iran and Turkey are historic rivals. Plus they see Azerbaijan as a threat to their territorial integrity considering Azerbaijan may claim Iranian Azeri land as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:23 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:Putin may think Erdogan is his buddy now, but when Erdogan annexes Armenia and gives S-400 to Uncle Sam in exchange for Patriot 3 and F-35, he will realize his mistake.
    don't underestimate his political judo skills- if u thought this, he did it even earlier. Sitting on 2 chairs didn't work for Lukashenko & won't work for this want to be Sultan either. 
    His Turkey may eventually be carved up just like Poland, Austria-Hungary & Iraq were.  
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70IaRcjpD0I

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOZIlcy6K8


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:35 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add links)
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:37 pm

    Iran has been keen to pull Armenia from Russian sphere to Iranian sphere. Considering Russia won't help Armenia due to Putin's relation with Erdogan, Iran will supply arms to Armenia to fend off Azeri invasion. This will make Armenia an Iranian lackey.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:50 pm

    Putin's relation with Erdogan..
    it's a marriage of convenience at best, to allow Russia more freedom of action in Syria & have good relations with Azerbaijan & other Turkic peoples. But if her interests r threatened in the Caucasus & C. Asia, new economic sanctions &/ proxy battles will bring Ankara in line. 
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:51 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Putin's relation with Erdogan..
    it's a marriage of convenience at best, to allow Russia more freedom of action in Syria & have good relations with Azerbaijan & other Turkic peoples. But if her interests r threatened in the Caucasus & C. Asia, new economic sanctions &/ proxy battles will bring Ankara in line. 

    Putin is pragmatic. Russia has been losing allies since 1990s due to pragmatism. Erdogan is far more cunning than Putin. Erdogan undertands Putin can't afford F-35 armed Turkey at Russia's doorstep and therefore must appease Erdogan.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:17 pm

    Azerbaijan don't need NK nor has NK belonged to Azeri people historically. Just because the Soviets said so does not make it so. Armenians are spooked due to past Turkic genocide against Armenians. That's why they fight tooth and nail. In fact, not even Houthis fight as hard as Armenians. Think Israel defending itself from Arabs from 1940s to 1970s.
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    Post  Maximmmm on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:39 pm

    Isos wrote:Wow. Totally failed azeri attack with tens of soldiers walking next to each other in line on a road in front of Armenians watching them. Mortar hit in the middle of them.


    Mountains are just a mess. Reminds me of all those yemeni vids; ambush after ambush.
    Question is how many of those are syrians and libyans, since while cannon fodder dies, the political pressures on the azeri side remain low.
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    Post  lyle6 on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:47 pm

    Maximmmm wrote:
    Mountains are just a mess. Reminds me of all those yemeni vids; ambush after ambush.
    Question is how many of those are syrians and libyans, since while cannon fodder dies, the political pressures on the azeri side remain low.
    Quite a bit, though it appears the Azeris have been pressing the minorities into the frontlines to make up numbers. They'd eventually have to send in their own soldiers, but I doubt they'd be any more effective than these rabble. The past flare ups had Azeri special forces leading the way, but they got chewed up for their trouble.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:51 pm

    Rubbish: he almost got killed in the coup & it was Putin who saved him. Norway & Japan also have F-35s, Russia can deal with them with her own S-400, etc. & was going to sell Turkey Su-35/57.
    Stop posting nonsense!


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  slasher on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:53 pm

    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:58 pm

    slasher wrote:
    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.

    Putin is too buddy buddy with Erdogan for Armenia's liking. Putin betrayed Assad and sold northern Syria to Erdogan for S-400 deal. This is why Armenia will join NATO for protection from Turkey / Azerbaijan.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:14 pm

    Like Spain joined NATO for protection against UK which still holds Gibraltar? or France to protect itself from the Islamists?
    I don't think Armenia joining NATO would be any different from Georgia doing the same- both will lose their statehood.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:15 pm

    Putin saved Assad and retook half of Syria when he was left with only the coast. And now russians are taking the eastern part.

    Russians patrol in the north and will take it back soon when Erdogan spends another 3 billions on russian systems.

    Turkey's S-400 will become unusable after spending 2 or 3 months without russian maintenance.

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    Post  kvs on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:38 pm

    Stop with the bleating about Russia selling out Assad over northern Syria. It is pure misrepresentation since the Americans are there to secure the oil fields.
    Why should Russia directly confront the Americans? Assad for sure can't.

    Assad should rebuild Syria and the SAA as his top priority. The mop up in Idlib can wait.

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    Post  kvs on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:45 pm

    Armenia has a similar demented infestation of NATzO sychophants like Georgia. It is pretty clear by now that all of the ex-USSR republics
    are afflicted with this brain rot disease. Maybe in Armenia the sobering reality of Turkey is keeping some dose of sanity, but nominally
    Christian Georgia is kissing Erdogan's a**. They even canceled their national holiday celebration of King David IV's victory over the Turks
    because Erdogan's regime snapped its fingers. Georgia has surrendered Adjaria to Turkish control. So much grovelling obeisance to their
    historic enemies but pure, insane hate for Russia.

    Get f*cked all of you hater retards. Russia should take a crap on you and let you be NATzO's problem. NATzO is like the Roman
    Empire, over extended and rotting from the inside.



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    Post  flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:51 pm

    slasher wrote:
    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.

    I agree it's ultimately not our business what alliance or under whose wing the Armenians go, in the interests of their own security. NATO, or towards Iran. Especially if Russia can't impose some sort of stability on the south Caucasus.

    But really Russia should impose this stability, and it should hold up its obligations to Armenians. It's in our interests as well, we don't need NATO on our south flank nor Iran and Turkey taking their rivalry into the Caucasus. Such a cynical policy of 'what will you give me for it' is Putin's way of eventually poisoning our relations with all ex-Soviet states.

    Because it's not just the ruling parties, clans, etc... that matter, as Putin & co. seem to think given that they are such oligarchs themselves.

    The people themselves have a memory, especially in such a situation as Armenia's.

    Russia should do whatever's neccessary, twist whoever's arm, make whatever public statements needed, keep quiet about whatever needs to be quiet - but all for the sake of attaining a ceasefire there as quickly as possible and agreeing some sort of peace plan that the Armenians can accept, if it would mean lasting guaranteed peace.

    I disagree about the 2018 protests in Armenia. That's it's internal affair, who they vote out, bring in, etc... same goes for Belarussians. Russia shouldn't interfere.
    As for the anti-Russian aspect, I only saw a few small groups with such posters. I'm quite sure 95% of the protestors weren't out there to make some sort of political statement or voice any sort of opinion on internal affairs, simply stand against the corruption of their own elites, whether provoked by Soros or not.

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    Post  par far on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:53 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:I see Iran supply Yasser suicide drones and large caliber sniper rifles and Kornet missiles to Armenia later this month. These are used very effectively in Yemen and decimated KSA and UAE ground forces.


    Why would Iran do this? They have good relations with Turkey and decent with Azerbaijan.

    Iran and Turkey are historic rivals. Plus they see Azerbaijan as a threat to their territorial integrity considering Azerbaijan may claim Iranian Azeri land as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.


    Iran and Turkey are close right now. Iran, Turkey and Qatar has a some what of a alliance. So Iran is not going to do anything major.

    You are just a troll, so I won't respond to you anymore.


    Last edited by par far on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
    medo
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    Post  medo on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:55 pm

    https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.
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    Post  flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:00 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    slasher wrote:
    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.

    Putin is too buddy buddy with Erdogan for Armenia's liking. Putin betrayed Assad and sold northern Syria to Erdogan for S-400 deal. This is why Armenia will join NATO for protection from Turkey / Azerbaijan.

    It's diplomacy, economics, and sometimes mutual interests too - if it means stirring the pot within NATO.

    But that doesn't mean that Putin will tolerate Erdogan extending his little empire (NATO along with it) into Russia's backyard.

    I mean Russia intervened in Syria, that's a lot further away from Russia than Armenia.

    As for everything else, buddy buddy and so on - it's all just words.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:00 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:Obviously the NK is only justification for invading and annexing Armenia proper. Erdogan has repeatedly stated Armenia is land stolen from Turkic peoples. Russia won't do anything when Turkey invades Armenia because of Putin's relation with Erdogan. Therefore Armenia will join NATO for protection from Turkey.

    I guess this is another one of Ultron's / ultimatewarrior's accounts I will have to add to my ignore list...


    I suspected this was ultimate warrior, some of the mods should start banning his I.P. address.

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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:05 pm

    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:I see Iran supply Yasser suicide drones and large caliber sniper rifles and Kornet missiles to Armenia later this month. These are used very effectively in Yemen and decimated KSA and UAE ground forces.


    Why would Iran do this? They have good relations with Turkey and decent with Azerbaijan.

    Iran and Turkey are historic rivals. Plus they see Azerbaijan as a threat to their territorial integrity considering Azerbaijan may claim Iranian Azeri land as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.


    Iran and Turkey are close right now. Iran, Turkey and Qatar has a some what of a alliance. So Iran is not going to do anything major.

    You are just a troll, so I won't respond to you anymore.

    Iran opposes Turkey and Qatar's backing of Islamists in the region. That's why Iran backs Hezbollah against them in Syria. Iran does not trust Turkey. Turkey and Azerbaijan have plan to annex Azeri land in Iran into Azerbaijan.
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    Post  flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:07 pm

    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions
    Maximmmm
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    Post  Maximmmm on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:15 pm

    One interesting item has been the arrest of spies in Armenia since the start of the conflict.
    Early on we had somebody in the upper ranks of the military and now it's some foreigners (https://lenta.ru/news/2020/10/04/spion/)
    I haven't heard of anything similar on the Azeri side. Could mean there's more spies in Armenia, could be they're getting caught more often, who knows. Interesting though.
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    SeigSoloyvov

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:16 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions


    It's showing Azeri has taken the time to prepare for this war Armenia however seemed to have it's head up an ass.

    Tho the Armenian's up until a few days ago was doing well, the tide does seem to be shifting.

    Can Armenia stabilize and recapture or will it bleed out slowly we shall see.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:21 pm

    The TB2 drones are shock and awe at first but over time the adversary adapts. It was used successfully in Syria at first and then in Libya then lost its effectiveness as the adversary started using MANPADS. Same happens in Armenia. And now with Canada talking about banning the sale of EO to Turkey, a TB2 lost is a TB2 that can't be replaced since Turkey has no technology to make EO.

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