The Situation in the Ukraine. #5

Vann7 wrote:The above video ,shows clearly that if Russia invade Ukraine ,their tanks cannot end in Donetsk and LUgansk ,but also will have to move
to Kharkiv and possibly Odessa too ,because as soon the Russian army shows to protect the east.. the other regions will say.. me too..
protect us.. too. So we are speaking here at nothing less that the total disbanding of Ukraine ,because they cannot survive as nation landlocked and without any industry .

So. That's what is called. Nova Russia. !!!

I think it'd pretty clear now that there won't be an overt  russian military intervention in Donetsk and Lugansk. (whether there is a covert one, we don't really know). If this was a good or bad decision of Putin and the russian government, being it willingly taken, or there were external factors thts prevented it, we will have to wait and see. I keep remembering that Putin said at the time that Russia is not interested of advancing further than Crimea, perhaps they thought it's a crucial enough victory to not risk getting embroiled in something much worse in Ukraine, at least for the time being, especially considering that the modernization of the russian military is far, far from complete, it only started, and the conventional deterence factor and capabilities of the russian armed forced is  at this time far well below that of the US and NATO.

There must be things that ordinary peoples like us have no idea and have no access to. We can only hope that the US and their puppets will ultimately be defeated (although a word of caution, the sad reality is the "good guys" always win only in the movies) in achieving whatever they are after in Ukraine - transforming it into a  vassal state, bringing in NATO airbases and BMD sites in order to weaken Russia's strategic position etc.

Meanwhile, the US neo-imperialism and their vassal governments are still the enemy of ALL of us everywhere in the world, and Russia and Putin, with their good and bad, are among the few who oppose them today. Let's no forget that.

macedonian wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:the general opinion here in western europe is shifting more and more towards Russia as well....its just the political elite and NATO here that are dancing to the tunes of the White house.

Doesn't matter. Not at all.
'The West' is all about elites and plebs.
You know that no matter how disillusioned one becomes with the policies of the elites, if given an order ONE HAS TO go and fight for the said elites.
That's how 'The West' works. That's how it prospers. That's how they sponsor 'revolutions' - by buying out or corrupting the ruling elites.
They couldn't care less about the plebs, be they Russian, Ukrainian, American, Dutch or Macedonian. Everyone should know their Modus operandi by now. This world is getting fckued over by them a little too much...
And now they're PUSHING FOR WAR WITH RUSSIA. It'll not end well, this.

thats true, but do not expect much of a NATO response. remember NATO is pretty much out of ammunition supply's after iraq/afghanistan and libya. bombers where forced to use training-bombs of concrete to strike their targets when they ran out of explosive ordinance. in 2008 we already had problems in Afghanistan with ammonution as we continuesly exceeded our supplies and it needed to be purchased first and flown in with Russian-rented aircraft. our european munition reserves where reaching depletion.

America can yell all they want with: "supporting our allies in europe". but fighting a war is not something you prepare for in a day, week or month. it takes serious investment and time to be ready. and NATO wasted their millitary potential and readiness on Afghanistan and Iraq. and i really cant see the goverments going to invest Bilions in NATO now while europe is in serious financial storms.

and troop morale is not what its used to be either, remember NATO troops been going to iraq/afghanistan for years now. they got war-weary after going again and again trough that meatgrinder, fighting is a part of the carreer of course. but only a retard does not realise what is going on and start asking himself if he wants to get hurt or die in a (at the time) an endless conflict without any real goals to achieve. it really felth like "congratulations!!, you survived afghanistan!. you go for another round in 1 year and again, all bets are off"
after two times i was done with risking my life for western elite politicans or the U.S. and with me a whole lot of other experienced NATO troops exited the service to pursue a job in the civilian life.

the real "backbone" among NATO's troops are long gone, what they hire now is the bottom of the barrel. unemployed, kids of 15 years old that cant punch a dent in a pack of butter promised they got an education of the Army, redneck trash, even criminals that are given a choice to either go to prison or go join the millitary. is that a proffesional army?, lol i call that desperatly trying to fill your ranks. even sargeants and luitenants nowadays are civilians that go trough a sort of amateur boot camp and have no idea of how it goes in the real army...or extention war. thats reckless and just plain amateuristic. NATO 2014

in 2006 i went on mission to afghanistan with iraq-hardened combat veterans that already knew what was comming, sargeants with experience that where once soldiers themselves, officers that threw the army handbook over their shoulder and had the motto "i do not care how you do it or what you wear, as long you do your job". but as years passed...more and more really good capable men left the service and where replaced by incompetent and unsuitable people like i described.

NATO will not survive a direct confrontation with Russia, not by conventional means. it would really be a freaking miracle but i actually expect the same result as what WW2 germany did with occupying europe if russia gets into an armed conflict.

and i have an "obligation" to report for duty when NATO calls on me. appearantly i signed that together with my first contract when i joined the army. but they can jail me for all i care, all i plan to defend is my own home with attached garden. everything outside my home they can do as they please.

but first....i would stand at the border with a bottle of good vodka and welcome our new Russian Overlords      hahaha

Airbornewolf your contribution is immense,
and you are an honest man by the way hope we can go for a beer one day.

@Airbornewolf:

You bring about a grin in grim times.
Thanks for that.
I too wouldn't mind having a pint or two with you mate...(even if it has to be Heineken or Amstel)  

Gazprom says its CEO is at talks in Kiev
The Ukrainian side has not yet provided any comment

TASS wrote:MOSCOW, June 15, /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom says its CEO, Alexei Miller, is at talks in Kiev.
“Miller is at talks in Kiev,” Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told journalists over the phone late on Sunday, however refusing to say where exactly the talks were being held. The Ukrainian side has not yet provided any comment. Initially, it was planned that the talks would involve Ukraine’s parliament-appointed Minister of Energy Yuri Prodan, CEO of Ukraine’s Naftogaz Andrei Kobolev, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger.

I'm thinking the Ukrainians are told to stall the talks by Washington, and the 'Europeans' are as clueless about it as usual.

macedonian wrote:Gazprom says its CEO is at talks in Kiev
The Ukrainian side has not yet provided any comment

TASS wrote:MOSCOW, June 15, /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom says its CEO, Alexei Miller, is at talks in Kiev.
“Miller is at talks in Kiev,” Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told journalists over the phone late on Sunday, however refusing to say where exactly the talks were being held. The Ukrainian side has not yet provided any comment. Initially, it was planned that the talks would involve Ukraine’s parliament-appointed Minister of Energy Yuri Prodan, CEO of Ukraine’s Naftogaz Andrei Kobolev, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger.

I'm thinking the Ukrainians are told to stall the talks by Washington, and the 'Europeans' are as clueless about it as usual.

You've gotta laugh at these hohols. "Russia, you are evil. Now give us cheaper gas"... Tossers.

My view is this. Don't fuck with the Russian winter. It beat Napoleon. It beat Hitler. And it will beat these hohol clowns.

Would be nice to see America attempt liquified gas deliveries, once Odessa is freed.

@ Hannibal and Macedonian. im not picky when it comes to beer, and i always look forward to share views and toughts with people with a beer or two . its always interresting to see how the real person is that goes with the online username.

and since in general we share the same interrests i figure it would be a good experience as well.   

Airbornewolf wrote:@ Hannibal and Macedonian. im not picky when it comes to beer,  and i always look forward to share views and toughts with people with a beer or two . its always interresting to see how the real person is that goes with the online username.

and since in general we share the same interrests i figure it would be a good experience as well.   

This seemingly has all the qualities for a good joke...So, a Dutchman, a Greek and a Macedonian enter a bar...[insert ending here]
On a (well....  ) more serious note, I'll be occupying Greece this summer (no weapons, well, none other than my spoiled kids), and if you guys are game...  

mack8 wrote:especially considering that the modernization of the russian military is far, far from complete, it only started, and the conventional deterence factor and capabilities of the russian armed forced is  at this time far well below that of the US and NATO..

I actually disagree with that..
The Russian Army is perfectly modern today even BEYOND NATO standars night and day and this is in conventional technology capabilities. in Nuclear Capabilities NATO is not a competition to Russia in terms of technology, Trident 2 missiles that US use are 25 years old already from the 90s and their heavier nukes are even older. while Russian nukes are very modern.NATO drones or plane will have not a chance to fly over Russia airspace or get remotely close if a war start. Russia can declare no fly zones with their S-400s in the baltic states without invading its airspace or territory. and declare a no fly zone over Ukraine for about 60% -70% of its territory including kiev. So what you have in a war between NATO and Russia is a war where NATO cannot use its Air force because of S-400s ,Buks-m2 and Pantirs-S2 and with their Jammers those US drones will not have an easier time. So what we have?  a NATO war that cannot use Airforce or drones? They will be wiped in an army only war ..NATO strength is their Navy and Airforce numbers that will be very vulnerable fighting near Russia land and Russia does not need to use is navy to defend their mother land. No NATO tanks that are pride of their army will survive a direct hit of a kornet-Ds ,designed to counter even active protections systems.

So in a war of NATO against RUssia today ,will have to give up their Air supremacy and fight in a guerrilla style warfare. Something that at some level they are already doing in Eastern Ukraine with their blackwater mercenaries. So NATO is already at war with Russia. Just that they are not using the best weapons ,but so neither is Russia. The Rebels in eastern ukraine level weapons which are soviet level weapons. Once a real war start ,Russia can use their Iskanders to Bomb all Ukrainian+NATO mercenaries artillery military positions ,with direct hits.. No longer they will be able to find a safe place to attack which will be a big problem if your positions can be bombed with precision. NATO will be unable to hold any checkpoint if Russia bomb their positions with Long range precision artillery ,ballistic or cruise missiles.

What Russia is lacking is not technology but in inventory .they are beyond NATO capabilities right now specially in missile forces.Russia is about to release a T-99 Tank that will be no inferior that the NATO competition currently use..Russia also have their Su-35s that can counter anything NATO have including stealth planes. What Russia lacks its inventory of modern weapons ,is not big enough to sustain a long NATO war. Not enough Iskanders or Kalibers missiles ,albeit it will be foolish to use only state of the art expensive weapons ,in times when a soviet weapon can do perfectly the job.

Ukraine is going to be Somalia-like land mine in 18 months time, designed to destabilize EU and Russia.

I had to steal this from an MP.net member.
He is spot on there.

Many rumors about the Russian army moving assets westward towards Ukraine.
Emphasis on RUMORS!

I guess we'll know for certain by tomorrow...

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Edit:
The more I read of it, the less convinced I am it's true...

macedonian wrote:Many rumors about the Russian army moving assets westward towards Ukraine.
Emphasis on RUMORS!

I guess we'll know for certain by tomorrow...

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Edit:
The more I read of it, the less convinced I am it's true...

There's some videos from the 14th and 15th of June....

Beslan station apparently heading to Rostov


a couple more

The Saker offers his analysis on the current situation. Though I agree only with a fraction of what he posts recently, he does offer a good read, and makes some excellent points.

Cyberspec wrote:There's some videos from the 14th and 15th of June....

Yes, yes - I've seen them. Those were among the claims/rumors I've mentioned earlier. But there are also many claims that those aren't moving towards Ukraine...that's why I said it was dubious. At this point...we'll have to wait and see...

One more video - Novoshahtinsk



Some people think it might be a response to the embassy attack and the recent border incidents

Partizan attack on a column near Izjum (one of the main staging areas of Kiev forces)



Large Russian Army column on Kiev Highway

Fighting going on at the villages of Scastije, Stanica Luganskaja (both river crossings marked with red lines on the map) north of Lugansk, as well as other settlements in the area. The Lugansk airport is the red marker on the bottom of map. A Ukr. column is trying to break through to cut of the border crossings and maybe relieve the airport which is under siege.....LNR officials are reporting a massacre in Scastije and a rebel counterattack is apparently going on atm....a bridge has also been blown up



The destroyed bridge at Stanica Luganskaja

Ukr. column at Scastije



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The DNR is looking for tank crews

ДОНЕЦКОЙ НАРОДНОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ СРОЧНО ТРЕБУЮТСЯ ЭКИПАЖИ СРЕДНИХ И ЛЁГКИХ ТАНКОВ, МЕХАНИКИ, ВОДИТЕЛИ, НАВОДЧИКИ, КОМАНДИРЫ.

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US embassy in Moscow

I wonder what the reasons for this could be:-

1)Putin decides Poreshenko is a prick and cant be reasoned with.

2)Poreshenko isnt calling any shots anyway.

3)Russia now thinks the separatists cant do the job on their own.

4)Putin thinks America will be sidetracked in Iraq etc

5)Putin realises public opinion will turn against him at home if he doesn intervene.

6)This is to frighten off larger numbers of hohol forces. But he will tolerate smaller forces.
As looked to be the case before.

7)He decides the refugee situation will be a nightmare. Or he realises the hohols only want to trash Donbass industry etc, and kill civillians.

Hannibal Barca wrote:

Viktor wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:It's not batka who's disconnected from reality, but all his fanboys and fangirls who for years have been admiring him as a great leader, good ally etc.

It's especially prevalent among Russians, and I really have a really hard time finding out why. Maybe it's that "iron fist" image (which, btw, is seriously damaging BY institutions by promoting comformism). And those magnificient moustache also may play a part   

Just the opposite. Western opinion agencies found out with horror during theirs most recent poll conducted in Belarus that peopels opinion has completely shifted towards Russia because of Ukraine events. Even those who previously with kind feelengs toward western values have changed their mind and are looking in the Russian direction.

What should Ukrainians do with vehicles and militants who come from abroad?

Alexander Lukashenko:
As for militants, who are fighting against Ukrainians, they must be destroyed. But at first you should detect terrorists, otherwise you will kill your own people.

Hannibal Barca wrote:It's not batka who's disconnected from reality, but all his fanboys and fangirls who for years have been admiring him as a great leader, good ally etc.
-Lukashenko knows that can't rely on Russia so has to hold a breathtaking balance

-Can you plese mention for what values West stands for in first place?

http://www.ctv.by/en/belarus-president-lukashenko-attends-poroshenko-inauguration-ceremony-says-ukraine-should-remain?page=3

There is a new video uploaded June 14 2014... perhaps Ukraine time..
With a new Question and answer session in Donetsk with people being informed by Donetsk forces ..
apparently it had to do with the their progress or not in the war against kiev.. So far people are very cheerful .
can anyone translate what he says?  Looks like the are good news for the NOvorossiya republic



and apparently according to someone at the @vineyardsaker.blogspot ,previous link above posted above about the
Ukraine Conflict. Someone got a detailed list of Casualties from the Kiev forces until today..


_ _ _ _  _ _ _ _ _

2760 losses (killed, injured, captured) from the counter-insurgency forces :

1240 extremists of the "Right Sector", mostly incorporated into the National Guard, also some actual National Guard soldiers. On 29th of May the chief of the National Guard academy Brigadier General Sergei Kulchitsky was killed near Slaviansk.

770 of Kolomoisky's Ukrainian mercenaries (of the battalions "Dnieper", "Donbass", "Azov"). Two of their leaders, Demidenko and Bereza, were killed in Mariupol.

100 SBU officers ("Alpha" of Sumy completely wiped out; significant "Alpha" losses from other regions - Kiev, Poltava, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Lutsk, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr)

150 foreign mercenaries : 21 Polish "ASBS Othago", 29 American "Graystone", 95 American "Academi" (Blackwater), 5 Baltic women snipers.

90 soldiers of the 95th air-mobile brigade (Zhytomyr).

90 soldiers of the 25th air-mobile brigade (Dnepropetrovsk).

50 soldiers of the 79th air-mobile brigade (Mykolaïv).

10 soldiers of the 3rd spetsnaz regiment (Kirovohrad).

30 soldiers of the 93rd mechanized brigade (Dnepropetrovsk oblast)

50 border guards (Lugansk)

30 soldiers of the 16th Army Air Corps (Lviv oblast)

20 soldiers of the 831st Tactical Air Force brigade (Myrhorod)

5 soldiers of the 114st Tactical Air Force brigade (Ivano-Frankivsk)

5 crew of the An-30 reconnaissance aircraft (around Chuhuiv, Kharkov).

25 officers of the CIA and FBI (13 killed, 12 injured).

35 officers of the Interior Ministry

Equipment destroyed:
1 Antonov-30 reconnaissance aircraft
1 Ilyushin-76 aircraft
2 Sukhoi-25 aircraft
2 Sukhoi-24 aircraft
1 drone
16 military helicopters ( Mi - 24, Mi-17, Mi - 8 )
7 T-64 tanks
3 Humvees
3 Gaz-66 trucks
4 Ural trucks
6 KamAZ trucks
2 "Nona" self-propelled howitzers
3 Grad launchers
2 Uragan (Hurricane) launchers
3 D-30 howitzers
22 armored combat vehicles
35 APCs

_ _ _

It's now about 9:10am Moscow time.
If Gazprom are serious about what they've said, they should cut the gas to Ukraine in less than an hour (10:00am Moscow time).
Unless the Ukrainians decide to play ball, and pay their debts. This will be a significant development.

RT spanish hands down the best Russia Today channel .. With the most recent updates..
There Donetsk forces captured 8 paratrooopers from Kiev in an ambush.. they say the people that was supposed
to get them abandoned them .



http://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/view/131191-video-milicias-ucrania-capturan-grupo-paracaidistas

Only five more minutes...tick/tack

Meanwhile, I found this amusing:

Reuters wrote:Russia accused Ukraine's acting foreign minister on Sunday of "going beyond the limits of decency" by calling President Vladimir Putin a "dickhead" during a violent protest outside its embassy in Kiev.

Reuters wrote:Deshchytsia said he had gone to the rally to try to stop it turning violent but video footage on YouTube also showed him saying: "I am for you protesting. I am ready to be here with you and say 'Russia, get out of Ukraine'."
"Yes, Putin is a dickhead, yes," he went on to say and the protesters responded by chanting the phrase.

Reuters wrote:"I am particularly disturbed that the so-called protesters near the embassy were joined by Andriy Deshchytsia ... having allowed himself to make statements that go beyond the limits of decency," Russia news agencies quoted him as saying.
"I understand who he has to learn from," Lavrov said, in a reference to the United States, Ukraine's ally. "Nevertheless a diplomat, as Deshchytsia is, has to choose his words ... I don't know how he will talk to us and work with us now."

LOL, Lavrov always knows what to say...