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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3

    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:51 am

    I think flamming_python that events unfolding, so far, better than even the most optimistic expectations.
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    Post  gaurav Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:32 am


    Some noise about the Zakarpatia region preparing to declare itself an independent republic on the 24th April. Some Rusyn radical groups are activating, possibly with the involvement of ethnic Hungarians too.

    Where is this zakarpatia region..?
    Hungary and Czech have left wing goverments right now..
    Not by chance but because of common history with Russia..

    Bulgaria can also regarded in Russia camp..

    The odds are in favour of Russia..

    The monoethnic Polish state is spewing , gurgling venom in Eastern Europe.

    Germany and France are careful about this  Polish state which has no good intentions.
    The whole Polish  race is scared of Russia like no other.. dont know why..


    Some reports suggest even Kerry is careful about the polish intentions..
    Even Romania is also neutral..
    I guess with U.S involvement growing in Romania.. it will not be so forthcoming to U,S anymore..
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    Post  arpakola Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:59 am

    In the night, during the so called "Geneva peace agreement", aimed on demilitarization and deescalation of the conflict, a group of faschist "Right sector" soldiers attacked an outpost near Salvyansk and killed 3 citizen of the city. It happened during the orthodox Easter celebrations.
    Unarmed citizens of Salvyansk were patrolling near the outpost, when 4 cars stopped and several unindetified persons opened fire. 3 people were killed at once, several wounded, others fled into the woods. When the alarmed Salvyansk militia forces arrived at the outpost, they managed to kill three attackers. After searching the bodies, "Right sector" propaganda imagery and medallions were found, along with several AK-74, a MG-42 (!!), lots of ammo, aerial survey photos of Salvyansk, nightvision device and camouflage net for snipers.






    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 0_9d400_30449b8a_XL
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    Division of Soros Foundation in Ukraine, "Vidrodjennja" (revival), is about to start new provocation in Slavyansk, this time about alleged persecution of gypsies. Having failed to reach desired goal with previous hoax, false jew leaflets, they now hope to form desired worldwide opinion with new provocation. Expect new rumblings in western media soon.
    http://varjag-2007.livejournal.com/6016425.html

    The person who owns LJ, famous jewish-Ukrainian activist
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 Attachment


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    arpakola
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    Post  arpakola Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:32 am

    Captured one of the RS scum in Slavyansk, he is from Vinnitsa (west )
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    Post  arpakola Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:06 am

    Subsidies from Kiev.
    Regional budget (1st) and subsidies(2nd column), official data from Ukrainian treasury site, 2013
    Also keep in mind, Kiev is a capital of Unitary country, accumulates all tax money from provincial capitals.
    Donetsk, Crimea and Lugansk are major donor regions, especially relative to population.
    Basically, ukranian-speaking Western and Central regions are parasites, sucking resources from Russian-speaking South-East. First column gives the idea of the size of regional economics. All taxes, most of financial flows gather in Kiev, some returned in the form of "subsidies". Federalized Ukraine means most of finances will stay in regions, which would be a death sentence to poor parasitic western and central parts.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 6FE4D32F-0719-DA3C-0192-CCC7ECC5344B
    KomissarBojanchev
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    Post  KomissarBojanchev Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:47 am

    gaurav wrote:

    Some noise about the Zakarpatia region preparing to declare itself an independent republic on the 24th April. Some Rusyn radical groups are activating, possibly with the involvement of ethnic Hungarians too.

    Where is this zakarpatia region..?
    Hungary and Czech have left wing goverments right now..
    Not by chance but because of common history with Russia..

    Bulgaria can also regarded in Russia camp..

    The odds are in favour of Russia..

    The monoethnic Polish state is spewing , gurgling venom in Eastern Europe.

    Germany and France are careful about this  Polish state which has no good intentions.
    The whole Polish  race is scared of Russia like no other.. dont know why..


    Some reports suggest even Kerry is careful about the polish intentions..
    Even Romania is also neutral..
    I guess with U.S involvement growing in Romania.. it will not be so forthcoming to U,S anymore..
    The bulgarian pro-russian government is hanging by a thread. Its deeply embroiled in corruption scandals and connections with the mafia, thus losing a lot of support, plus the right wing pro-EU camp in my country is spewing propaganda on how they're russian agents with antinational interests, and it's being swallowed by a massive amount of our population. TV spews it, most newspapers(although they're a little less balanced) spew it. We really need a powerful left wing government with an untarnished reputation that can hold out to all right wing interests. Unfortunately there isn't hope for one so russia should buckle up for an ukraine style revolution of the vocal minority in Bulgaria.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:31 pm

    arpakola wrote:Captured one of the RS scum in Slavyansk, he is from Vinnitsa (west )

    Got some info on him, seems like he's the real deal

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 Maidan10
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    Post  Werewolf Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:07 pm

    I hope he gets executed for treason and terrorism against own country and population.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:15 pm

    An interesting PoV. Yes it's that Israeli guy again.



    But seriously, very interesting.

    He said that the Crimea is part of Russia now and there's nothing more to it, it's final and any further discussion would just be meaningless rhetoric.
    Both the host and Kedmi agreed Khrushchev's silly decision 60 years ago has now been reversed. The host opined that Khrushchev was trying to gain support from the Ukrainian communists as he was in a weak position but Kedmi disagreed; it was just a matter of prestige.
    The host asked him about the costs, pointing out the Crimea's dependence on outside water, electricity, etc... but Kedmi replied that it's useless talking about the costs for 2, 3, 5 years when it comes to things like this, in in any case the strain will be less than joining East Germany to West Germany, and for that matter will cost less than what Chechnya costed. There is such a thing as national interests and if Russia judged its national interests as that of returning the Crimea than some expenses won't scare it.

    The conversation moves onto the joining of the Ukraine to Russia, as it's the 360th anniversary this year of one of the original events to do with the historical Ukraine becoming part of Russia. The host asks if the Ukraine becoming part of Russia is on the agenda, that there are 2 Russian armies on the border with the Ukraine.
    Kedmi replies that Russia has never declared any territorial pretenses on the rest of the Ukraine, and that Russia seems to want a federated Ukrainian state. As for the 2 Russian armies, it seems that Moscow has decided that the only way to deal with the illegitimate government which installed itself, and the growing anarchy on Ukrainian territory - can only be dealt with through force; which is what those armies are for.
    Kedmi opines that Russia has probably set an objective of a legitimate Ukrainian government coming to power by the 20th May (presidential elections as declared by the new government I think), and for that purpose - will probably use Yanukovich as despite what anyone may think of him and how incompetent he is - legally speaking he's still the Ukrainian president, and from Russia's point of view - force can't displace the legitimate president.
    He says that when a legitimate government is formed, real power won't be in Yanukovich's hands but he is needed for legitimization. After that, the Ukraine will prepare for new elections, and some of the current radical organizations (e.g. Pravyj Sektor) can be banned.
    After such a government comes about, the Ukraine will convert to a federative state, stop any move towards NATO and the EU, and start integrating into the Customs Union.

    Kedmi says that while Russian forces will likely be involved in terms of reducing the Ukrainian military, etc... the main responsibility of this operation will fall to pro-Russian Ukrainian forces, who will want such a government themselves.
    After that, the economic war will follow. Right now the sanctions over the Crimea are being introduced, along with Russia introducing their own counter-sanctions.
    When Russian forces move into the Ukraine - the real sanctions will follow, which will be much more serious.
    He opines that we are following in the footsteps of WW1, only without a war, but an economic war. When the Serbs killed the Archduke Ferdinand, and all the European powers stepped up as a matter of principle, to commit to the war on behalf of their allies - they didn't understand what they were getting into. As a result, none of the European empires that started that war - survived it.
    In an economic war, much like in a real war, both sides will take huge losses - but economic ones.

    The main point that Kedmi makes after this, is that the ability of the Russian state to survive and stabilize, through any social or economic crisis - is on a magnitude greater than for European countries. Modern Russia has far greater social, political and economic stability than the USSR or the Russian empire.
    If Europe starts to go through another economic crisis because of some Ukraine, than many of the current political forces and regimes on the continent can simply be swept away by their people, who don't give a damn about the Ukraine; but don't want to see prices rise. Europe has just gone through a crisis, during which its unity was questioned no less, and if it goes through another one immediately than the results will be unpredictable, and that Europe can be making a big mistake if they step up in the 'defense' of the Ukraine as a matter of principle, as what happened 100 years ago.
    The current political and economic system of the world, as a result of a Russian-Western economic war - can ultimately transform into something unrecognizable.
    This war, the first world economic war, whose coming it seems now - can no longer be stopped - will lead to huge changes.
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    Post  Regular Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:30 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    arpakola wrote:Captured one of the RS scum in Slavyansk, he is from Vinnitsa (west )

    Got some info on him, seems like he's the real deal

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 Maidan10
    They removed him from the page
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    Post  Regular Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:38 pm

    An actor as Donetsk deputy
    http://crime.in.ua/news/20140419/kosenko
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    Post  mutantsushi Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:01 pm

    gaurav wrote:Where is this zakarpatia region..?
    Zakarpatia is Transcarpathia, on border with Slovakia and Hungary,
    with significant ethnic Hungarian and Rusyn population, which has voted more P. of Regions in the past, i.e. not Svoboda territory like the rest of West.
    Hungary and Czech have left wing goverments right now.. Not by chance but because of common history with Russia..
    Uh... not sure what those have to do with each other. I would not say Hungary has a left wing government by any stretch.

    Bulgaria can also regarded in Russia camp..
    Bulgaria has been being pressured by the EU (of Common Energy Policy and Eastern Partnership policy) to abandon South Stream, the government most recently said they would continue to pursue it although they would respect EU Council decisions, which I believe are by qualified majority, although some other policy issues are unanimous (such as sanctions, I believe). AFAIK, once South Stream gets past a certain point, i.e. construction starts on land, it is harder to stop. Russia has been trying to pull legalisms to claim it has already started, but actually having done so will be more persuasive. AFAIK, Bulgaria does not have any purchase contracts with South Stream gas yet, so from their perspective, even if they decide not to buy gas from it they can still collect transit fees and construction work.

    The monoethnic Polish state is spewing , gurgling venom in Eastern Europe.
    Germany and France are careful about this  Polish state which has no good intentions.
    The whole Polish  race is scared of Russia like no other.. dont know why..
    Yes, the neo-Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth seems to be rearing it's head...
    And I don't think Sweden can be ignored in this either... Which is crazy, since Russia has no reason to be hostile to them in any plausible scenario,
    even if WWIII went down Sweden could be safely ignored even if everything else went to shit...
    But the people behind these policies hardly are acting solely in their nation's interests, same as for the American Empire.

    Even Romania is also neutral...
    Romania is anti-Russian, but perhaps more aware of their actual interests. They have a political interest in Moldavia,
    but the thing there is that even excluding the Transnistrian population, Moldova proper has been showing somewhat of a pro-Eurasian Union popular tendency, current government aside.
    So the only plausible short-medium term scenario where Moldova joins EU/accedes to Romania would be recognizing the separation of Transnistria AND a contiguous Gagauzia
    (the regions fragmenting Gagauzia into non-contiguity largely have a majority non-ethnic Moldovan population, e.g. Bulgars and Ukrainian, and so certainly make sense to secede/join Ukraine/Novo Rossiya)
    which is not fundamentally in major conflict with Russian interests, although since Romania already granted Romanian citizenship to all ethnic Moldovans, annexing Moldovia is really no longer a pressing issue for them anyways.

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:The bulgarian pro-russian government is hanging by a thread. Its deeply embroiled in corruption scandals and connections with the mafia, thus losing a lot of support, plus the right wing pro-EU camp in my country is spewing propaganda on how they're russian agents with antinational interests, and it's being swallowed by a massive amount of our population.
    Indeed, or any party that can stand up for Bulgarian interests without selling out to foreign interests, certainly that situation is why ATAKA seems to be doing better because everybody else is shit (and they have been threatening to try and remove the government if it acts against cooperation with Russia). I don't think Bulgaria has much debt, so it seems mostly a matter of cutting out the criminals and EU pawns and just putting together a half decent program that can facilitate productive developments, whether they come from Russia, China, the EU or wherever. I am curious to know what other avenues of cooperation there is with Russia, and with Greece and Serbia and Hungary.
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    Post  Cyberspec Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:04 am

    flamming_python wrote:An interesting PoV. Yes it's that Israeli guy again.

    Interesting and thx for posting. We'll see if some of these scenarios come to pass but he is definitely right that the world won't be returning to the same situation as before this crisis. China and Asia in general will probably benefit the most from this clash.
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    Post  Firebird Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:55 am

    arpakola wrote:Subsidies from Kiev.
    Regional budget (1st) and subsidies(2nd column), official data from Ukrainian treasury site, 2013
    Also keep in mind, Kiev is a capital of Unitary country, accumulates all tax money from provincial capitals.
    Donetsk, Crimea and Lugansk are major donor regions, especially relative to population.
    Basically, ukranian-speaking Western and Central regions are parasites, sucking resources from Russian-speaking South-East.  First column gives the idea of the size of regional economics. All taxes, most of financial flows gather in Kiev, some returned in the form of "subsidies".  Federalized Ukraine means most of finances will stay in regions, which would be a death sentence to poor parasitic western and central parts.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 19 6FE4D32F-0719-DA3C-0192-CCC7ECC5344B

    I think one pt is that Kiev functions and benefits as a capital for the income generating East and South of the Ukraine. It also benefits as a centre for Russian visitors etc. If the East and South break away, Kiev is just capital of a Nazi/Nationalist dominated West, and disparate factions in the Centre. Far better therefore, for Kiev to side with the East and South. Especially given its language and historical ties with Russia/Ru language.

    All the Lvov centric bullshit from the junta really is the tail wagging the dog. Or rather than Americans wagging the tail. Its not jsut the Party of teh Regions etc, but the Communists that should have electoral control over where the Ukraine will look. Tymoshenko, KLitschko, the Right Sector, none of these clowns have any coherent policy.
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    Post  GarryB Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:17 am

    I think one pt is that Kiev functions and benefits as a capital for the income generating East and South of the Ukraine.

    The irony is that for Russia the Ukraine has been a close trading partner and they had a lot of business together. Now however for the Ukraine in the EU and NATO it will just be handy front line realestate but with obsolete infrastructure and uncompetitive businesses that will get crushed in the EU.

    Of course for Russia this is a win win... they no longer have to carry their immediate neighbour... the EU will have to do that now, they get the crimea back which will be worth investing in... more ship builders is better for the growth in the navy... they just need a few nice bridges connecting Russia with a few new pipelines.

    Integrating southern Ukraine into the Russian federation would be rather more complicated... but worth doing if the locals want that... hopefully they come with the right attitude... to make money and work hard for a better future for their new country...

    More arctic territory is not needed (ie Alaska)... southern territory on the other hand is useful if it doesn't require bloodshed... already far too much blood spread over that region...
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:31 am

    Huge news in Crimea guys! Apparently Russia and China are working on a deal to create a deep water port in Crimea worth $3 billion, and it's expected to generate $1.5 billion revenue for Crimea every fiscal year. All the people who didn't support Crimea rejoining Russia are looking like idiots now:

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    Post  Flyingdutchman Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:37 am

    Thats amazing Very Happy 
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    Post  etaepsilonk Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:04 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:Huge news in Crimea guys! Apparently Russia and China are working on a deal to create a deep water port in Crimea worth $3 billion, and it's expected to generate $1.5 billion revenue for Crimea every fiscal year. All the people who didn't support Crimea rejoining Russia are looking like idiots now:

    This has nothing to do with Russia. That deep-water port was in consideration long time ago.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:58 am

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:Huge news in Crimea guys! Apparently Russia and China are working on a deal to create a deep water port in Crimea worth $3 billion, and it's expected to generate $1.5 billion revenue for Crimea every fiscal year. All the people who didn't support Crimea rejoining Russia are looking like idiots now:

    This has nothing to do with Russia. That deep-water port was in consideration long time ago.

    Gee, funny how it pops up now though. Guess China sees Russia is a much better trading partner than Ukraine. Since it was mulled before Crimea was part of Russia, but is being now pushed, shows development under Russia is more widespread and thorough than under Ukraine gov.
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    Post  etaepsilonk Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:15 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    Gee, funny how it pops up now though. Guess China sees Russia is a much better trading partner than Ukraine. Since it was mulled before Crimea was part of Russia, but is being now pushed, shows development under Russia is more widespread and thorough than under Ukraine gov.

    You got that wrong, pal. No one mulled anything.

    "In Crimea, at the expense of Chinese investors will be built a unique deep-water port

    Deep-water port with underwater water area of 25 m will be built in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea ( ARC ) at the expense of Chinese investors , said CEO of the project developer " Kievgidroinvest " Alexei Mazyuk .

    As the agency " Interfax-Ukraine " , the corresponding memorandum was signed in the framework of Ukrainian - Chinese business forum in Beijing on Thursday, " Kievgidroinvest " and Chinese BICIM.

    " This unique structure , the function of which will be shifting freight flows from East to Europe," - said in comments to journalists A.Mazyuk .

    He reminded that Ukraine is on the Eurasian transport stream with the historical name Great Silk Road . " Today we take part in the reconstruction of this road elements maritime logistics ," - said the project developer .

    "This project will be implemented in the mode of public-private partnership , which clearly defines our legislation . As a result , the state gets half of what will be built ," - said A.Mazyuk .

    He drew attention to the fact that this is the first precedent of realization in Ukraine scale infrastructure project on the investors' money and without government guarantees .

    According to him , the project includes the construction of several terminals and granaries at 20 million tons. The port will be built in Saki region , not far from the village. Frunze. A.Mazyuk noted that the waters of the port will be dug directly on land using unique technology that allows the port to take large intercontinental deep-draft ships .

    " According to him, the decision to implement it was taken a month ago, and the work is expected to begin next year . Approximate price of the first phase of the project is $ 3 billion. " First phase will be implemented in about four or five years "- said A. Mazyuk .

    " Based on the fact that the estimated capacity of the port - from 140 million tons a year , you can calculate that only port and other charges bring the State not less than one and a half billion dollars a year ," - stated A.Mazyuk .

    He added that the port will go as goods from Asia to Europe and vice versa.""

    http://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/179394.html

    Date-05.12.2013  Wink 
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:32 am

    Mulled is right. Now it is Russia and China investing, not just China. As well, China already is pissed about Ukraine govs abuse of investments in Ukraine.

    Now Crimea is going to be a huge casino location as well. And they will get assistance through the national welfare fund.

    Looks like Crimea will end up being big and developed under Russia than as developed and poor as Daegestan (which was what Crimea was compared to).


    Last edited by sepheronx on Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:23 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  etaepsilonk Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:44 am

    sepheronx wrote:Mulledvis right. Now it is Russia and China investing, not just China. As well, China already is pissed about Ukraine govs abuse of investments in Ukraine.

    Before the secession the project is worth 3 billion, after the secession the project is also worth 3 billion  Very Happy  So how's that equal to both countries investing?  Smile 

    And is there much need for Russia to invest at all, since Chibots are willing to do all the work anyway?
    Heck, they're like arabs, they're just paying for infrastructure projects instead of yachts and ferraris  Very Happy
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:59 am

    Unlike the Arabs this...little yellow humanoids got brains.
    They want to create a row model for the rest of the bankrupt European tiny countries to follow.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:27 am

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Mulledvis right. Now it is Russia and China investing, not just China. As well, China already is pissed about Ukraine govs abuse of investments in Ukraine.

    Before the secession the project is worth 3 billion, after the secession the project is also worth 3 billion  Very Happy  So how's that equal to both countries investing?  Smile 

    And is there much need for Russia to invest at all, since Chibots are willing to do all the work anyway?
    Heck, they're like arabs, they're just paying for infrastructure projects instead of yachts and ferraris  Very Happy

    Well, it seems they will be getting Russian casinos, investments and business, all the while catering to the folks who are driving ferraris and or yachts. All further projects goes through Russian ministry of industry and trade. Since Crimea will be made a SEZ, expect investments to jump, especially from foreign entities. Which many in EU and US will not get (sez offers tax haevens as an example).
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    Post  Vann7 Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:46 am

    38 billions cubic meters gas to CHina per year contract is Nothing really.. specially when the gas they will buy it for very cheap ..much more than europe.Is just about the same of what Russia export to Germany alone per year ~34bcm.  Russia in comparison supply Europe wiht 140 billions cubic meters gas today. This means Russia dependence of Europe for gas  is total ,and China will not fix that problem. European Unions is a puppet organization of US and they will never split from the west even if that means paying twice more for energy. .In the other hand in 5 years Europe is already on plans to reduce importing Russian Gas by 25%.
    And with the adding of the Nabucco pipeline  from Caspian sea-Azerbian-Georgia , Europe could cut their imports by half from Russia if not by 75%.  What this means is that Russia will need to find new markets perhaps India ,because the war on Russia economy already have been declared openly by Obama.   All so much troubles for Russia for trying to be politically correct with Ukraine and not helping Yakunovych when he was in Power to remain in power ,when clearly he was being attacked by US by a financed coup.   Ignore anyone that tells you Russia is on a win/win situation with Crimea.. that peninsula is only a consolation price for the lost of Ukraine.Now NATO controls most of Ukraine and it will be a matter of couple of years or more you will see Ukraine turned into a mayor military base of US and its allies. With nuclear capable bombers in the border of Russia. and NATO warships base withing 100km of Sevastopol . This is a huge security problem for Russia. Russia needs to declare economy war against US ,(since already they are at war against Russia  economy)
    And stop using the american dollar , totally ignore any western Sanctions against IRAN ,Korea ,Syria ,Cuba and any other.. ditch all arm treaties with the west and start selling heavy weapons to IRAN ,Syria ,Argelia ,China and North Korea  . There is a huge potential to create an energy Front with IRAN and IRAQ and Syria and Egypt and become the exclusive weapons supplier of them. And a lot of prohibited weapons that they cannot sell under current treaties with US.   Russia needs to really start looking to the East for economic alliance but also military.   SHangai Corporation Org needs to take off ,and be much more active too..with drills at NATO borders.. etc.


    Last edited by Vann7 on Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:37 pm; edited 1 time in total

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