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    Moldova and Transnistria Situation Thread

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:13 pm

    Have you ever considered the thing from the following perspective :
    We are talking about shithole countries, that are struggling to keep the parts that faded away 30 !! years ago.
    If any of those would achieve economic prosperity, improved standards of living, and perspectives - those torn-apart parts would just reconsider.
    It is hard to be Abchazya, Osetia of Transdnistria - objectively.
    But there is nothing, principally nothing that would make a carrot.
    Even being separatist, unrecognized and with multiple issues with a normal living - the gap is not so much in favor to the former "metropolis" to make them wonder.
    We have other examples of "independent" countries that have lost 50% !!!!! percent of its population - obviously because the living conditions were so fantastic after they rid of the Soviet rule!
    Oh yeah, that is a clear sign of a prosperous living they have created!
    Hats off gents!
    Amazing!

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:30 am

    Have you ever considered the thing from the following perspective :
    We are talking about shithole countries, that are struggling to keep the parts that faded away 30 !! years ago.
    If any of those would achieve economic prosperity, improved standards of living, and perspectives - those torn-apart parts would just reconsider.
    It is hard to be Abchazya, Osetia of Transdnistria - objectively.
    But there is nothing, principally nothing that would make a carrot.
    Even being separatist, unrecognized and with multiple issues with a normal living - the gap is not so much in favor to the former "metropolis" to make them wonder.
    We have other examples of "independent" countries that have lost 50% !!!!! percent of its population - obviously because the living conditions were so fantastic after they rid of the Soviet rule!
    Oh yeah, that is a clear sign of a prosperous living they have created!
    Hats off gents!
    Amazing!

    And now consider some other perspectives

    No one nation is God, it's not for us ultimately to decide which country has a future, and which hasn't. It's up to the people in the country in question, and the policies pursued by the people they elect into power, or who they tolerate, support regardless of how they got into power.
    Potentially, Moldova is quite viable. And with Pridnestrovie and all the rest of it. All they need to do is find the right balance in terms of their internal ideology, identity and so on, and pursue the right economic policies and political relationships with their neighbours.

    As for what would be in Russia's favour; well really having all these Pridnestrovie's, Abkhazia's, South Ossetia's as part of Russia or allied to it is a last resort, the benefits of which are limited to just protecting the people living there, but that's about it.
    Russia doesn't exactly gain much benefits from the existence of a frozen conflict and others' territorial claims there, nor from the mighty Pridnestrovian industries or South Ossetia's manpower pool - the later of which was small enough to fit everyone who cared to elect the president into one stadium BTW, in order to do so.

    And on the converse, the existence of said frozen conflicts push the countries these republics broke off from; or rather who were never part of said countries except administratively back when they were all part of the Soviet Union - into the arms of the collective West, and allow their territory to be used by NATO to creep closer to Russia and establish bases there.
    The populations of these countries and their economies, while hardly significant either, still dwarf those of these break-away republics - so the EU gains more benefit here by expanding their potential market and gastarbeiter pool, with the installed Russophobic regimes conversely robbing Russia of place to sell its own goods among other things.

    By advocating a policy of reunification, where possible, with naturally the election of sane, non-US puppet governments into said countries - Russia is able to entice these countries instead into neutrality, and towards a resolution of their respective territorial conflicts. At the end of the day a neutral Moldova is worth more to Russia than an unfriendly one. Neutrality can in the future, of course, potentially evolve into a closer partnership too.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:52 am

    Fiamming, the problem is that hoping for neutrality doesn't work when the stooges and soldout politicians on these small countries (supported by pro American and anti Russian propaganda) insist that they have the right to pursue any policy they want and even stipulate any possibile military alliance with Russia's enemies.

    Unfortunately, when you deal with stupids and traitors, the only law they understand is the law of the jungle.

    Probably it would have been different if Russia did not go in a path of self defeat in the nineties (thanks to its own traitors and their CIA "consultants"), but now it is fundamental to let those small countries understand that they have 3 options:

    1) be an ally of Russia (just an offer, not mandatory)

    2) be neutral and do not host foreign military or pursue russophobic policies (the easiest option)

    3) be the receivers of special military operations (with subsequent damage, loss in lives and infrastructure and quality of life) until they are teached how to become neutral


    They do not need to love Russia or become best friends.

    They just need not to create problems for Russia.

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    Post  kvs Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:47 am

    They should learn that there are consequences for their actions. Being platforms for NATzO aggression against Russia is not a "right",
    it must come at a very high price.

    It is a common problem for only rights to be considered and not responsibilities. National rights require national obligations to play by
    certain transparent rules. We have legal systems to force this sort of behaviour on citizens even when they have rights enshrined
    in the constitution. Supposedly the UN was to serve this function but that is not the case in reality. We have power blocs with vassal
    states. So international law is much more like the law of jungle and anyone harping about "international law", "territorial integrity",
    etc. is either an idiot or full of sh*t.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:55 am

    Fiamming, the problem is that hoping for neutrality doesn't work when the stooges and soldout politicians on these small countries (supported by pro American and anti Russian propaganda) insist that they have the right to pursue any policy they want and even stipulate any possibile military alliance with Russia's enemies.

    Unfortunately, when you deal with stupids and traitors, the only law they understand is the law of the jungle.

    Probably it would have been different if Russia did not go in a path of self defeat in the nineties (thanks to its own traitors and their CIA "consultants"), but now it is fundamental to let those small countries understand that they have 3 options:

    1) be an ally of Russia (just an offer, not mandatory)

    2) be neutral and do not host foreign military or pursue russophobic policies (the easiest option)

    3) be the receivers of special military operations (with subsequent damage, loss in lives and infrastructure and quality of life) until they are teached how to become neutral


    They do not need to love Russia or become best friends.

    They just need not to create problems for Russia.

    I have no illusions about these things, but I also don't deny anyone agency. Every country has the chance to choose for itself ultimately, if it wants to follow its Soros-stooge politicians or not, how long it tolerates them for, and indeed for the stooges themselves to decide whether they want to follow through with their sponsors' plans or not.

    Right now the law of the jungle has resulted in the war in the Ukraine. But other countries have the chance to make their own conclusions from all this. Moldova's elites have a chance to decide whether they are going to take NATO's side and serve as their instrument in provoking a conflict with Russia, and Moldova's population will have a think about whether they want to re-elect their president at the next elections or not.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Feb 05, 2023 11:07 pm

    The problem is that western countries are master manipulators who control information to tell any lie they please to get the results they want.

    They have a jew in power in a European country that has nazi ideology (Bandera fan clubs and hero worship), it is not just a case of telling the people the truth, you have to be heard to start with and once brainwashed they will assume everything you say is a lie... there can be no open free and frank discussion in such a situation and talking to blank faces who are not even listening is a waste of your time.

    If the Orcs were not shelling their own people I would have said let them suffer and be robbed the way Russia was robbed in the 1990s... when they work out what has happened it will be another thing they have in common with Russia and a good reason to hate the west, but they love the west... there are Indian people in India who loved the Brits being there and want them back, there are lots of victims who develop Stockholm syndrome... there are Russians who think Russias only future is part of the west but the only part on offer is footstool and tool shed.

    Russia should make it clear to all countries that they are free to make any choices they please but choices have consequences... Finland joining HATO means a largely closed border with Russia and hostile future relations even after the situation in Ukraine is sorted because HATO is an enemy state to Russia.

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    Post  higurashihougi Mon Feb 06, 2023 12:29 am

    What all of you said above are correct but it should be delivered in a way that is palatable to small countries and potentially neutral ones, the bystanders who are looking from the sides and still deciding what should they choose.

    Russia has to firstly tell them that they can do whatever they want to pursuit wealth and development for them, and Russia is happy to take part in a win-win coopearation and partnership with them if they desire to. But Russia has the same legit right to do so and if their wealth originate from harming Russia then Russia has choice but to retaliate.

    Russia's message should be clear about the equality in the mutual relationship: we respect your human rights but we are the same human as you, too.

    The worst mistake of the Soviet Union in the realm of foreign relations is that she fell into the way of chauvinism and attempted to impose her own biased viewpoint on other members of the socialist bloc or other member Party of the Commintern. After Lenin died the Commintern gradually became the foreign relation body of the Soviet government rather than a true international organization of workers. Such mistakes created a wedge between USSR and its allies and created an opportunity for Western propaganda to attack the USSR and the socialist movement in general.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:04 am

    The problem is that western countries are master manipulators who control information to tell any lie they please to get the results they want.

    They have a jew in power in a European country that has nazi ideology (Bandera fan clubs and hero worship), it is not just a case of telling the people the truth, you have to be heard to start with and once brainwashed they will assume everything you say is a lie... there can be no open free and frank discussion in such a situation and talking to blank faces who are not even listening is a waste of your time.

    If the Orcs were not shelling their own people I would have said let them suffer and be robbed the way Russia was robbed in the 1990s... when they work out what has happened it will be another thing they have in common with Russia and a good reason to hate the west, but they love the west... there are Indian people in India who loved the Brits being there and want them back, there are lots of victims who develop Stockholm syndrome... there are Russians who think Russias only future is part of the west but the only part on offer is footstool and tool shed.

    Russia should make it clear to all countries that they are free to make any choices they please but choices have consequences... Finland joining HATO means a largely closed border with Russia and hostile future relations even after the situation in Ukraine is sorted because HATO is an enemy state to Russia.

    I firmly believe that you have to choose to be brainwashed.

    You brought up India. Were they brainwashed by the British? No and they aren't being brainwashed by the Americans now either. Of course they still look towards the Anglosphere in a cultural sense and this is perfectly natural. But even being part of the Anglosphere to some extent and being exposed to all the Western media and everything else; no they did not end up brainwashed, they always had an awareness of what's in their own interests, and don't need someone to come along and tell them who their friends and allies should be.

    The Ukrainian elites were key actors in bringing about the end of the USSR. It would be inaccurate to assign all blame on them of course; it wasn't only them, and ultimately the most significant role was played by Yeltsin and the gang in Russia itself, and Gorbachev's own incompetence of course, who was also in Moscow.
    Yet the point was the Ukraine took a straight path towards independence, and towards integrating with the West, as Russia did at the time too. The Ukrainians flirted somewhat with nationalism at the time, but kept it in check unlike Georgia and the Baltics and so on. But this was just a matter of strategy. In practice, they were selling and giving out every ex-Soviet technology, weapon and secret that NATO asked for. In the 90s under their 2nd president Leonid Kuchma, they were already signing some sort of partnership with NATO and were eyeing eventual membership. You can argue that Russia itself wasn't pursuing a much different policy at the time, but the point is that the Ukraine had made its choice one way or the other.
    And then in the early 2000s Ukrainian nationalism started to be cultivated, primarily as a tool for internal political struggles. Eventually though, it started to take its place in identity-building and ideology. This was after the Orange revolution, but still way before the Maidan one.
    By the time of the Maidan revolution, neither the Ukrainian elite nor wider population were hostile to Russia, but they were increasingly buying into all the Soros myths about how backward their own country is due to Soviet rule, how corrupt they are and need EU politicians and an action-plan in order to fix that, about how Stalin tried to starve them to death in the 30s, etc..
    Of course during the revolution you had the rapid rise to prominence of Ukrainian nationalist radicals, the subscription of more of the population under their banner, outright anti-Russian slogans, and when the inevitable fault-lines appeared in Ukrainian society, you ended up with the Crimea splitting and the rebellion in the Donbass. The Ukrainians blamed this all on Russia, and denied the very possibility that people in the Crimea and the Donbass could possibly have a mind of their own.
    From that point on, every ridiculous myth about Russia was propagated by and believed in by enough people in the Ukraine. Every forlorn hope about how Western pressure would force Russia out of the Crimea, how sanctions would collapse their economy. Now about how 130,000 Russian soldiers have been killed at a ratio of 1:7 in favor of the Ukrainians, and the coming Bradley IFVs will enable the Ukrainian army to push Russia out of these 4 regions.
    And so they brainwashed themselves. How else to explain it. These figures are made up by themselves, not even by the Americans or the British and so on; who simply re-translate Ukrainian propaganda.

    It was a regrettable, sad process but it was their choice and I'm not sure Russia could have done much to stop it.

    Now Moldova, and other countries have a choice of their own - do they want to buy into the Washington cool aid or not. Do they want to turn their own territory into a forward operating base for NATO with an eye on helping them to collapse Russia?
    If they do, then Russia will take whatever measures are necessary; and at the least build up its presence in Pridnestrovie and annex it in all likelihood.

    I don't think Russia should force their hand though; that sort of thing can only build resentment

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    Post  Broski Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:49 am

    I don't think Russia should force their hand though; that sort of thing can only build resentment
    Transnistria will go to Russia one way or another, the question is whether Moldova is stupid enough to obey NATO, attack Transnistria and become a missile sponge like the Ukraine.

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    Post  George1 Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:47 am

    Moldovan government collapsed

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/moldovan-prime-minister-resigns-government-collapses-97028545

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    Post  GarryB Fri Feb 10, 2023 9:31 pm

    I firmly believe that you have to choose to be brainwashed.

    Western propaganda is subtle... growing up as a kid there was buggs bunny and wiley coyote and sylvester and elmer fudd... I remember at the time the main criticism of the cartoons was how violent they were... how characters were crushed and bashed but there was never any consequence because they all came back for the next episode... South Park actually took the piss at that with Kenny being killed in many episodes only to be back next show.

    Nobody ever pointed out that these cartoons reversed reality... they got the violence and struggle about right... cats constantly try to kill mice and birds, hunters try to shoot rabbits and ducks, coyotes try to kill roadrunners.

    The cartoons gave children a warped sense of reality by making the underdog into the bully... a Human shooting rabbits and ducks is a no brainer, the only reason there are still ducks and rabbits around is their numbers and breeding rate... they don't trick the shooters into looking down their own gun barrels and pulling the trigger.

    No one complained that these cartoons were telling children to support the underdog and that when a cat fights a mouse the mouse will outsmart the cat and win... the mouse can get lucky, but usually the cat gets to eat.

    Constantly sending a message every day to your children... how can that be good?

    Have a look on the cartoon channel and watch new looney tunes cartoons and they all work together and cooperate and do nice things for each other... it is now even further from reality than it ever was... but then I suspect the only children who watches cartoons these days are the ones with their tablets and phones taken off them.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sun Feb 19, 2023 6:36 pm


    @AZgeopolitics
    🇲🇩🇷🇺The new PM of Moldova, Dorin Recan, said that Russian troops should leave Transnistria, the region itself should be demilitarized, and its population should be economically and socially integrated, TV8 reports.

    Bold...

    -------------------------

    Immediate attack from Belarus to the south to establish a land connection. This is no longer a question of if but of when! Immediate mobilization of another 300,000 men.

    Don't back down a meter!
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Feb 19, 2023 6:40 pm

    everytime these governments collapse, they will just put someone else in power who is equally or more hawkish for the west. This is the false concept of democracy. Regardless how people will feel, their governments are not a representation of the people.

    I wouldn't worry what Moldovan government says. They are pipsqueeks and it wouldn't be much effort for Russia to reel them in.

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    Post  Firebird Sun Feb 19, 2023 7:02 pm

    I'd think Russia has prepared for the possibility of an extremely evil Moldovan puppet govt.
    If Russia goes into Moldova before it joins GATO, I don't see much loss.
    Moldova must abide by all the agreements of its independence or pay the price.
    Likewise with Transnistria.
    And Moldova is a nasty puppet dictatorship and even Western sources don't see it as remotely a "democracy".

    Russia controlling Moldova allows for a pincer movement vs the Pukrainian junta (and snuffing out GATO arms imports easier).
    After that, Russia would need to consider Kazakstan and possibly the Baltics.
    And other puppet statelets can be hit hard from more of a distance.

    Nasty work to do, but once done, its done.
    Russia only need think about revenge vs Uncle Satan after that.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:18 pm


    Immediate attack from Belarus to the south to establish a land connection. This is no longer a question of if but of when! Immediate mobilization of another 300,000 men.

    Don't back down a meter!

    You're jumping a little far ahead there

    Both Sandu and other people in her cabinet have said that Russian troops should leave Pridnestrovie many times over the past few years

    What these disciples of US intelligence though think **should** happen however, bears no importance to anything.
    All they can do is permit the Ukraine to enter their de-jure territory and invade Pridnestrovie. For which the Russian garrison in Pridnestrovie is ready for, together with the local authorities who will immediately call a mobilization. And which will be the end of Moldova too; the country will not survive such a crisis.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:36 pm

    Right now Russia is fighting the Ukraine... if Moldova invites Ukrainian forces into their country, well they are legitimate targets and they are essentially expanding the conflict in Ukraine to their territory... which probably actually suits Russia more than it suits Moldova because inviting Ukrainian troops in... they will no doubt start by attacking Russian soldiers and perceived Russian citizens in the autonomous regions like they did in their own country, which would justify and actually require Russia to act to support those people as quickly as they can... so long range missile strikes on Moldova to start with and escalation from there... probably including formulating plans for a land border with those separatist regions... not to mention an opportunity to use some of the Soviet Ammo stored there... perhaps that is what Kiev is after?

    Either way, certainly not in Moldovan interests which is perhaps why this government collapsed under western and Kiev pressure to join the game on the losing side... and risk their destruction too.

    The question is, who will take the wheel of that sinking ship sailing at full speed towards the rocks... with no working controls except a move faster button.

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    Post  Firebird Mon Feb 20, 2023 5:10 am

    Russia must also consider Moldova doing a "lightening joining" of GATO.
    Therefore Russia might need to send troops in before that happens.
    **** the pr, because Western media ain't kissing Russia's arse at any time.
    Moldova is a nightmare waiting to happen.
    So the argument is, go in and prevent the nightmare.
    I get the feeling the Moldovan junta is trying to do a Minsk on Russia.
    Creep forward til it has enough arms to strike and destroy Transnistria.

    This is a Moldova-Russia issue. NOt a GATO one. They are Russians in Transnistria.
    So a half way house option might be to say "ok you are intimidating Transnistrians and your own pro Russian Moldovans with your junta. We will increase troops in Transnistria and add them in Moldova if you don't start fair elections, fair media and fair policing/security services now".

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    Post  d_taddei2 Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:17 am

    People forget that Moldova isn't purely pro EU pro NATO there is a portion of pro Russia, when I visited both Moldova and Transnistria although yes the pro Russian aspect is a big difference between the two there still isn't 100% anti Russia in Moldova and Moldova knows this, they also know that their military cannot face any Russian presence. In fact with the Russian peacekeepers along with Transnistria forces and reservists/volunteers with Russian Air force and naval cruise missile launches would crumble them within 1-3 days. Add into the this mix any mobilisation from Transnistria and pro Russian people in Moldova itself and added bonus of Gaughiza which is pro Russian not only would large part of the border to Ukraine be sealed but Moldova's only chance would be to invite NATO into the country and would NATO be willing the confrontation another option is Romanian troops in the country but ask yourself is Romania, Romanians and Moldova and Moldovans ready for the consequences and bloodshed after witnessing Ukraine. I think it would be a case of those wanting to flee (pro EU) into Europe causing more refugee crisis and the rest accepting Russian influenced country leadership or even full integration into Russia I think the latter is what Russia would want as they don't want to deal with potential issues of western infiltration in the future if they don't integrate. And another kick in the teeth for NATO EU UK USA meddling. As for an attack from Belarus all the way to Transnistria it would be far easier to take Odessa route, not only would that mean Kherson and Niko taken, but also making Ukraine landlocked and taking a major port city, and creating a more stable land corridor. And by making Ukraine landlocked also means better naval security for Russia and no future NATO naval bases in Ukraine if it ever got to that. It a better idea for Russia to take away the best industries from Ukraine an absorbing it into the federation it will help secure future prospects for the economy in those regions and leaving Ukraine with almost no decent industry .

    As for Kazakhstan I think its not a big immediate issue, remember Kazakhstan in the region is surrounded by, Kyrgyzstan, China and Russia, and regionally Tajikistan all pro Russian or russian influenced or allies. If it were to go down the route of pro USA/west it would find itself very isolated and in danger of a coup look at last time when Russia came to its aid, it clearly had forgotten that, so it's not unreasonable for another coup to happen again but with pro Russian influence and I think Kazakhstan secretly knows this but doesn't want to make it obviously either that they just plain dumb. Even Uzbekistan which for a while was cuddling up to USA that didn't last long did it. Once Ukraine and Moldova is dealt with, and bordering ex soviet union countries will be thinking twice of any pro western stance I would imagine.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:12 pm

    It's as if Moldova suspects it's already facing defeat

    Moldova wary of protests fanned by pro-Russian party
    Moldova is dependent on Russian energy - and last year the Kremlin cut its gas supply to the country by half

    "There are people with four or five children who literally have nothing to eat."
    Energy bills here now consume more than 70% of household income, according to Moldova's president.
    they swallow half of her pension

    When we elected this government, they promised to raise salaries and pensions, but so far we haven't seen anything.

    Sunday's protests, organised by Moldova's pro-Russian Sor party, are being closely watched by governments across Europe and beyond. Most protesters travelled to the capital city Chisinau by bus, with their costs reportedly covered by the Sor party.

    Days before the gathering took place, President Maia Sandu warned that Russia was plotting to send military-trained saboteurs into the country, disguised as civilians, to topple her pro-Western government.

    Russia has said the accusation is an attempt by Moldovan authorities to distract attention from their own social and economic failures

    Moldova, strategically located on the border with Ukraine, and harbouring its own pro-Russian breakaway region, is dependent on Russian gas.

    Last year Moscow cut its supply to Moldova by half, putting pressure on the government in Chisinau, as it seeks to hold together its Romanian and Russian-speaking populations.

    Protests over the rising price of gas and electricity began last autumn.

    Speaking at a public briefing last Monday, President Sandu said that Russia had already attempted to destabilise the situation in Moldova via the energy crisis, which she said "was expected to cause major discontent among the population and lead to violent protests".

    The plan now, she said, involved "diversionists with military training […] who would undertake violent action, carry out attacks on buildings of state institutions or even take hostages".

    Fifty-seven people from nations friendly to Russia - including a group of Serbian football fans and several boxers from Montenegro - were denied entry to Moldova in the past few days, after checks by security services.

    And Moldova's airspace was unexpectedly closed for several hours this week.

    "It's very clear that Russia is an aggressor state," Rosian Vasiloi, head of Moldova's border police, told the BBC. He said the threat had existed since 24 February, when the Ukraine war began, but he emphasised that it was "different now; it's a mix of threats from inside and outside Moldova".

    As long as Ukraine continues to fight, and wins the war, he believes the risks for Moldova are lower.

    "If Ukraine falls, Moldova is next," he said. "But I'm not afraid."

    She has said the alleged Russian plot would rely on "internal forces" such as the opposition Sor party, and has called for parliament to pass tougher security laws.

    But there are those in the party who admit they would welcome Russian intervention

    "We're not afraid," he told me, "Because if Russia wanted to take Moldova, they'd do it in half a day."

    When asked if he would welcome that, Mr Berenchi is unequivocal.

    "In my personal opinion, yes," he said. "With Russia we'd be much better off than we are now."

    But the view from the crowd outside that parliament on Sunday was different, and there's the risk the pressure could widen the splits in Moldova's diverse society.

    The risk is clear when Ala and her friends were asked whether they believe Russia wants to infiltrate Moldova, as their president fears.

    "Yes, let them come!" they shout. "We want them to come here. We want to be part of Russia!"

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64700590

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:44 pm

    Amid the ongoing fighting on the fronts of Donbass, there are risks of inciting another military conflict on the south-western borders of Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are amassing on the border between the Odessa region and Transnistria. Mass movements of the Ukrainian military in the immediate vicinity of the border are also confirmed by resources in Tiraspol, capital of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR).

    Large forces are accumulated along the Kirovograd highway a few kilometers from the Platonovo checkpoint. The number of military personnel has been increased at all checkpoints in the region. Some special operations forces from the Bakhmut and Donetsk frontlines were reportedly transferred there.

    It is expected that Ukrainian forces will strike at the territory of Transnistria in the near future, probably on the anniversary of the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.

    The village of Kolbasna is likely to become the first target. There is a giant ammunition depot. Dozens of tons of ammunition are stored in Transnistria. The seizure of warehouses would allow the Ukrainian military to replenish the emptied depots with ammunition for Soviet-made systems.

    The warehouses in the PMR are under the control of the Operational Group of Russian troops, which numbers about 10-15 thousand servicemen. Forces of the Russian grouping would not be enough to repel a massive offensive by the Ukrainian army.
    https://southfront.org/a-new-front-in-the-smo/


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    Post  Backman Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:39 am

    I think this is going to happen. Russia's idea of cutting 50% of the gas off to Moldova worked. It made the US controlled govt non viable. The US would rather just destroy the country than lose it to Russian economic power. They will destroy it and somehow believe that they will control it after its destroyed
    It worked for all of Europe in ww2.

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    Post  Backman Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:46 am

    @Python
    It's up to the people in the country in question, and the policies pursued by the people they elect into power, wrote:

    This granting of agency by Russia to the east Ukrainian elite like Medvachuk and Yanukovych is the direct cause of the Ukraine war though.

    Ppl say it's laws of the jungle. But the world under Anglo rule is worse than the laws of the jungle. So granting this agency is just no viable
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    Post  d_taddei2 Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:04 am

    If Ukraine invade Transnistria then this is exactly the same claim that Ukraine has made against Russia that it's invaded land that isn't theirs and breech their sovereignty. Pot calling kettle black Scenario. So that should mean that the west will stop supplying weapons and put full sanctions packages on Ukraine? (Sarcasm) lol!  Yeah it will be a double standards thing and in the name of democracy no doubt. Ukraine has zero reason to invade Transnistria.

    Question is will Ukraine be sending freshly mobilization forces with 1-2 weeks training? they may end up with high casualties if they do. Or if they send experienced troops that would mean taking them from another front (as is suggested above) and this would weaken another front that is active.

    Can Ukraine even afford to commit the manpower, equipment, ammunition, and open up another front?

    The force in Transnistria along with Russian troops, reservists, police, volunteers, hostile civilians, and volunteers coming from Moldova and Gagauzia, and add in Russian air force and cruise missiles this could end up not being the walk in the park Ukraine thinks it might be.

    Or maybe Russia should just threaten zelensky saying if you invade Transnistria we will FOAB Kiev take your pick. lol!

    It could just be a feint by Ukraine or with Ukraine getting evermore desperate and the fall of Bakhmut looking extremely likely they will want something to divert attention from the loss to something they see as a win. However no matter what the western MSM like to spin it zelensky would be guilty of further war crimes and invading of another country for zero reason. And this could lose him support outside of Ukraine. It's not as if zelensky could say he feels threatened by a 1,500 strong russian peacekeeper force that's been there for decades and feels the need to intervene to stop the threat. And Transnistria prior and during the war has never shown any signs of gathering troops or aggressive military exercises or build up of arms, calling mobilization or aided Russia in anyway, so yet again zelensky has zero reason or justification to invade. Moldova could end up seeing a backlash from civilians and plunged into Chaos of which civilians will blame the west and Ukraine. This misadventure if it happens could go terribly wrong for Zelensky and more so for Moldova.

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    Post  Serberus Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:02 am

    In case of Ukronazi attack on Transnistria , the small Russian contingent being surrounded and without possibility of reinforcements, what could Russia really do? A few long range strikes aren’t going to make a massive difference. If the Wehrmacht are serious and brought enough forces, even with the locals helping, I dont see them holding out for long. Another blunder imo, leaving them isolated like that, Odessa should have been one of the primary objectives for multiple reasons.
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    Post  Backman Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:09 am

    ^i agree. But Transnistria has 6000 regular forces and 20,000 reservists plus the 1500 Russian troops. Plus there is ammunition stored all over the place , in houses , apartment blocks ect. Might look easy for Ukraine on paper.

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