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    Moldova and Transnistria Situation Thread

    lancelot
    lancelot


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    Post  lancelot Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:08 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.
    I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
    Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

    I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
    The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
    But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

    Russia might decide to just engage the remaining Ukrainian troops in the South and mop them up and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes. Might even end the special operation then and there. But I think the conflict will continue in general for quite some time. Even the Second Chechen War lasted almost a year in terms of the main combat phase. So this is going to take a while.


    Last edited by lancelot on Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:16 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.
    I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
    Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

    I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
    The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
    But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

    They might decide to just engage their remaining troops in the South and mop them out and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes.

    Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

    US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

    Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satelitte states.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:20 pm

    Isos wrote:Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

    US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

    Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satellite states.
    Russia won't do that. Their force structure is not up to it. Impossible to do a long term occupation of most of Europe. And for what?

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:27 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    Isos wrote:Most funny is that US is pushing them to attack Russia so that article 5 can't be triggered.

    US is clearly trying to destroy Europe, and more precisely, german industry by scrificing eastern countries.

    Their economy is dead, no more enemies in middle east so thry need a new cold war with a new Warsaw pact which means Russia colonizing the satellite states.
    Russia won't do that. Their force structure is not up to it. Impossible to do a long term occupation of most of Europe. And for what?

    If they mobilize they can.

    If they have the opportunity to take the baltics they will take them. Ukraine is alrzady being annexed. Moldova or at least transnistria will follow.

    Destroying Romania to create a land route to Serbia is also a possibility.

    Azerbaijan is also a big gaz supplier for Europe destroying it is a solution for Russia if Turkey keep pushing its pawns there.

    Russia has nothing to loose anymore since they are sanctions at 100% and US will never try a military war woth them. They can vbomb anyone now.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:44 pm

    Isos wrote:If they mobilize they can.
    If they have the opportunity to take the baltics they will take them. Ukraine is alrzady being annexed. Moldova or at least transnistria will follow.
    Destroying Romania to create a land route to Serbia is also a possibility.
    Azerbaijan is also a big gaz supplier for Europe destroying it is a solution for Russia if Turkey keep pushing its pawns there.
    Russia has nothing to loose anymore since they are sanctions at 100% and US will never try a military war woth them. They can vbomb anyone now.
    Maybe long term but I do not see it happening in the short term. Taking Romania would not help their defensive situation.
    I could see them taking the Baltics to ensure a land bridge to Kaliningrad. And Transnistria. But Moldova seems kind of pointless and Romania more so.

    If Russia does take the Baltics it would solve two problems simultaneously. It would prove that the US won't come to the aid of NATO countries either and give Russia a land bridge to Kaliningrad. It would likely spook the Finns and Swedes out of NATO if it is done before they join.
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:45 pm

    No need to conquer them militarily. A few years of sanctions and they will come begging for Russia to take them back.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:49 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    ATLASCUB wrote:A lot of threats are about to be cashed in. We will know if it's more of the bluff kind soon enough. God knows we've seen plenty of that already.
    I see you are one of those idiots who still have not figured out that VP does not bluff.
    Just like Russia accepted the "brotherly peoples" of Ukraine stealing gas for years while Poland got like 3 days reprieve, I think you will find out that any military attack against Russia by these people in NATO would similarly face a non-linear response.

    I do not know how well they will do long term with this kind of limited war.
    The current troops Russia has there have clearly shown they can handle the troops Ukraine has in the field.
    But I think a surge will eventually be necessary to take on the larger cities.

    Russia might decide to just engage the remaining Ukrainian troops in the South and mop them up and call the end of general operations after that. With only retaliatory strikes. Might even end the special operation then and there. But I think the conflict will continue in general for quite some time. Even the Second Chechen War lasted almost a year in terms of the main combat phase. So this is going to take a while.

    No need for a surge. After the Donbass operation Russia will have a numerical advantage in every direction: Kharkow, Nikolayev, Odessa, even around Kiev (if neccessary). The cities may be bigger then Mariupol, but the number of "defenders" doesn´t correlate to that. Kiev is 10 times bigger then Mariupol but there aren´t 200.000 soldiers. The size of the cities can even be a disadvantage for the defender. To many streets to keep an eye on.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Apr 30, 2022 4:47 am

    Russia won't do that. Their force structure is not up to it. Impossible to do a long term occupation of most of Europe. And for what?

    I think what Lsos is trying to say is that the US wants the EU and Russia to fight to damage each other in a way that they can avoid getting involved... the excuse will be we can get involved but that would mean WWIII and everyone dies so the US is going to let the EU fight Russia on its own to damage them both and leave the US to make money rebuilding the sides it wants to with the money it prints and has an endless supply... a requirement for support would be to trade in US dollars again of course.

    If they mobilize they can.

    I think what he is suggesting is that the plans of Putin do not include restoring the Soviet Union or invading and occupying Europe like Hitler and Napoleon wanted to do before him... he is eliminating threats and if Poland makes itself part of the threat then they wont be invaded but their military will be attacked... they have an air force and air delivered weapons that could be very dangerous to Russia and Russian forces in Ukraine so they would have to be eliminated... no invasion but elimination of threats might feel very much the same as invasion and occupation for their military.

    Hitting civilian infrastructure like power stations and bridges that after the war Russia wont care about needing to rebuild because they will spend as much rebuilding hostile territory in Europe as the west spent rebuilding hostile countries they invaded in the Middle East and elsewhere... zero.

    Destroying Romania to create a land route to Serbia is also a possibility.

    Wouldn't work... anything using that land route would not be safe by any measure which renders it useless.

    Azerbaijan is also a big gaz supplier for Europe destroying it is a solution for Russia if Turkey keep pushing its pawns there.

    Certainly if they try to play up smashing their gas production infrastructure would be a great goal for the Russias because it is a rival gas source so destroying it would benefit them financially while at the same time hurt Turkey and the EU financially too... so if they encourage such crap they will pay a real price for that too.

    Russia has nothing to loose anymore since they are sanctions at 100% and US will never try a military war woth them. They can vbomb anyone now.

    There is still the fact that nuclear war is suicide, but otherwise their hands are free... and the west has got no idea what they will or will not do, which must be a bit uncomfortable...

    If Russia does take the Baltics it would solve two problems simultaneously. It would prove that the US won't come to the aid of NATO countries either and give Russia a land bridge to Kaliningrad. It would likely spook the Finns and Swedes out of NATO if it is done before they join.

    But the fundamental problem really is what the f do they want the baltic states for... they are bloody useless and would need to be subsidised and supported like the Soviets used to do using their ports and rail infrastructure which would all need to be rebuilt and that is to use Russias own ports less to provide traffic for these hostile little testicles of countries.

    And the effect might result in the fins and swedes joining HATO anyway... they are just that anti russian any excuse the US gives for doing nothing will be accepted...

    The NSA must have some really heavy dirt on EU leaders to make them perform at Americas every command... kiddy fiddlers or satan worshippers?



    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:39 pm

    Just for "fun". A few thought about a possible contingency plan for Transnistria/Moldova.

    If the dumbasses in Kiev/Lviv are really so stupid to gather 20.000 "soldiers" that they could really need elsewhere to attack Transninstria, I guess the reaction of the Russian MoD could be something like this:

    1. cruise missile strikes against troop gatherings. I mean, in the past weeks every gathering of more then 100 soldiers was bombed. Do the geniuses in Brussels/Kiev/Lviv think this time it will be different?

    2. Bomb, bomb, bomb the Nazis. The VKS and AVMF will love it. A few hundred sorties a day. YES!

    3. amphibious assault somewhere south-west of Odessa, in that land extension south of Moldavia.

    4. air assault, to conquer some airfield(s)

    5. bring in more VDV troops/equipment + more stuff across the sea (points 1 and 2 will be repeated constantly during that time)

    6. move these troops into Transnistria to help the defenders

    7. launch an attack at Nikolaev. Because of some urgency the Russians will be less careful. As Nazi I would start praying in that instance.

    8. Ignore Odessa, just bloc enemy troops there.

    9. move the main force towards Transnistria, liberate the whole area, Gaugazia too. Shit, take the whole of Moldavia. If some of the folks there really want to live in a garbage can like Romania let them go.

    10. come back to Nikolaev and Odessa and f... the Nazis there.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:56 pm

    I think they should send heavier infantry equipment to Transnistria via airlift. Body armor, machine guns, ATGMs, MANPADS. They should send some drones to the troops there like the Orlan-10 so they can keep up with any troop movements Ukraine does.

    There is a short airfield at Tiraspol which could be used. The airstrip has a rough concrete runway but probably can be used with aircraft which can operate on rough conditions. You could also send in helicopters.

    If it came to it you would deploy the VDV paratroopers and use the VKS to provide air support. You would make a marine landing in the southwest of Odessa, make a beachhead, and connect to Transnistria. They could also try to capture Chornomorsk, deploy artillery and drones in the outskirts, and use that to hit units in Odessa proper.

    I agree that in case Ukraine does attack Transnistria then Russia should just push through to Nikolayev.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun May 01, 2022 3:48 am

    The huge irony is that the Ukrainian forces invading and occupying Transnitria just makes that location a legitimate goal for Russia to capture... which would really suit them I think considering the history of the region... it would be as dumb as starting a real conflict and coup giving the Crimea a chance to rejoin the Russian federation... if the US didn't mount the coup and didn't demand the Russian language be banned the Ukraine as it existed in the early 2000s would still exist, with Russia needing to rent their naval base and having no land or air access to their peace keepers in Transnitria without tantrums and BS.

    Thankfully the west are a bunch of idiots and Russia has gotten Crimea back and now the Donbass and Lugansk regions have split from Kiev permanently and the rest of this war will be about exactly how much territory Kiev will end up with and attacking Transnistria is going to make their territory smaller and more of their people dead... but continue... you guys think you know what you are doing.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun May 01, 2022 7:35 am

    lancelot wrote:I think they should send heavier infantry equipment to Transnistria via airlift. Body armor, machine guns, ATGMs, MANPADS. They should send some drones to the troops there like the Orlan-10 so they can keep up with any troop movements Ukraine does.

    There is a short airfield at Tiraspol which could be used. The airstrip has a rough concrete runway but probably can be used with aircraft which can operate on rough conditions. You could also send in helicopters.

    If it came to it you would deploy the VDV paratroopers and use the VKS to provide air support. You would make a marine landing in the southwest of Odessa, make a beachhead, and connect to Transnistria. They could also try to capture Chornomorsk, deploy artillery and drones in the outskirts, and use that to hit units in Odessa proper.

    I agree that in case Ukraine does attack Transnistria then Russia should just push through to Nikolayev.

    What is a funny part here, is that now they can.
    Before the war, TRD was landlocked. Russia could not supply them, they are left with the same things they had back in 1992.
    Troops rotation was made masqueraded as civilian traffic. It was a sick joke.
    Now, they can access the Tiraspol by airlift, the only thing they must take care of, is to liquidate all the SAM threats in the area.

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