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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:09 pm

    By the way let me post the full Stratfor article in case someone missed it.


    Ukraine Turns From Revolution to Recovery
    Geopolitical Weekly
    Monday, February 24, 2014 - 10:16 Print Text Size
    Stratfor

    By George Friedman

    The uprising in Kiev has apparently reached its conclusion. President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition reached an agreement, negotiated by the Polish, German and French foreign ministers. The parliament is now effectively in charge, deciding who will be ministers and when elections will be held, whether to dismiss judges and so on. It isn't clear whether the parliament can fire the sitting president without impeachment and trial, but all of this is now moot. What is interesting is that the Polish, French and German foreign ministers negotiated an outcome that, for practical purposes, ignored the Constitution of Ukraine. It sets an interesting precedent. But for Ukraine, the constitution didn't have the patina of tradition that a true constitution requires, and few will miss Yanukovich.

    The question now is whether all of this makes any real difference in Ukraine or the world. There is a new temporary leadership, although it is still factionalized and the leaders of the factions have not fully emerged. The effect of hostile gunfire will forge unity in Kiev for a while, but in due course, ideology, ambition and animosity will re-emerge. That will make governing Ukraine as difficult as in the past, particularly because the differences among the neo-Nazis, the liberals and groups in between -- all of which manned the barricades -- are profound. A government of national unity will be difficult to form.

    Another issue is what will happen the next time crowds storm government buildings. The precedent has been set -- or rather, it was set during the 2004 Orange Revolution -- that governments and regimes can be changed by a legalistic sleight of hand. At some point a large crowd will gather and occupy buildings. If the government opens fire, it is run by monsters. I don't mean that ironically; I mean it literally. But if the government allows itself to be paralyzed by demonstrators, then how can it carry out its constitutional responsibilities? I don't mean that ironically either. The Ukrainian Constitution, new or old, is meaningless because Ukrainians will not endure the pain of following it -- and because foreign powers will pressure them to deviate from constitutional democracy in order to create a new one.

    There should be no mistake. The Yanukovich government was rotten to the core, and he will not be missed. But most governments of Ukraine will be rotten to the core, partly because there is no tradition of respect for the law and because of the way property was privatized. How could there be a tradition of law in a country that was reduced to a province of another state and that numbered among its rulers Josef Stalin? Privatization, following the fall of the Soviet Union, occurred suddenly with vague rules that gave the advantage to the fast and ruthless. These people now own Ukraine, and however much the crowd despises them, it can't unseat them. The oligarchs, as rich people in the former Soviet Union are called, are free; they can eliminate their critics or bribe them into silence. The only thing that is more powerful than money is a gun. But guns cost money and lives.

    The idea that what will follow the Ukrainian revolution will be the birth of a liberal democracy reminds me of the Arab Spring. In the West, there is a tradition of seeing a passionate crowd massed in a square as the voice of the people. Reporters interview demonstrators and hear that they want an end to a corrupt and evil regime and subliminally recall the storming of the Bastille, the founding myth of the revolutionary tradition. A large crowd and a building anger at government evil points to the millennium.

    In the Arab Spring the hope was great and the results disappointing. There was genuine hope for change, and observers assumed that the change was for liberal democracy. Perhaps it will yet be. Sometimes it was a change to a very different type of regime. What is portrayed and seen in this situation are the corrupt leaders commanding brutal soldiers. If the regime and the soldiers are wicked, it follows by this storyboard logic of good and evil that then their victims must be virtuous. It is rarely that easy. It is not only that the crowd is usually divided into many factions and bound together only by anger at the regime and the passionate moment. It is also that unexpected consequences lead them far from what they intended.
    How Long Will Unity Last?

    The deepest symbolism of revolution, and the most problematic, is that the people in the square speak for the people as a whole. The assumption made by the three foreign ministers was that in the negotiation between the three leaders of the demonstrators and the president, the protests' leaders were more faithful representatives of the people than the elected president. They may have been in this case, but it is not certain.

    Parts of Ukraine are bitterly angry about the outcome in Kiev. A Russian flag was raised over the city hall of Sevastopol, located in Crimea in the south, over the weekend. Crimea has historically belonged to Russia. In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev took it away from Russia and gave it to Ukraine. The Russians in Crimea have never really liked being part of Ukraine and the demonstrators didn't represent them. Nor did they represent all those who live in the eastern part of the country, where Russian is commonly spoken and where being close to Russia is both an economic and cultural desire.

    Thus there are two questions. The first is whether there is enough unity in the Ukrainian parliament to do what they must now do: create a government. The excitement of the moment has hidden the factions, which will soon re-emerge along with new ones. Yanukovich was not without support, for good reasons or bad. His supporters are bitter at this outcome and they are biding their time. In addition, the oligarchs are weaving their webs, save that many of the lawmakers are already caught in their web, some happily and some not. The underlying constraints that created the Yanukovich government are still there and can create a new Yanukovich out of the most enlightened Ukrainian leader.

    The second question is whether Ukraine can remain united. The distinctions between the region oriented toward the West and that oriented toward Russia have been there from the beginning. In the past, governments have tried to balance between these two camps. Our three foreign ministers and the leaders of the demonstration have signaled that the days of taking Crimea and the east into account are over. At the very least their interests weren't represented at the talks. Those interests could be rebalanced in the parliament, or they could be dismissed. If the latter were to happen, will Ukraine split in two? And if it does, what will be the economic and social consequences? If parliament takes to accommodating the two sides and their respective oligarchs, then how does it avoid winding up with a more photogenic and sympathetic Yanukovich?
    The Motives of Outsiders

    What happened to Ukraine mattered deeply to the Germans, French, Poles and Americans, all of whom had a deep involvement and sympathy for the demonstrators and hostility toward Yanukovich. Certainly it matters to the Russians, for whom maintaining at least a neutral Ukraine is essential to the national interest. This entire crisis began when Yanukovich decided to reject closer ties to the European Union. It was that decision that triggered the demonstrations, which, after violent repression, evolved from desiring closer EU ties to desiring regime change and blood.

    The Ukrainian government has $13 billion in debt, owed mostly to Western institutions. The Russian government has agreed to provide Ukraine with $15 billion in aid doled out in tranches to cover it, since Ukraine can't. Russia is now withholding additional aid until it can be confident the emerging government in Kiev is one with which it can work. It has also given Ukraine discounted natural gas. Without this assistance Ukraine would be in an even worse situation.

    In turning toward Europe, parliament has to address refinancing its debt and ensure that the Russians will continue to discount natural gas. The Europeans are in no position politically to underwrite the Ukrainian debt. Given the economic situation and austerity in many EU countries, there would be an uproar if Brussels diverted scarce resources to a non-member. And regardless of what might be believed, the idea that Ukraine will become a member of the European Union under current circumstances is dismal. The bloc has enough sick economies on its hands.

    The Germans have suggested that the International Monetary Fund handle Ukraine's economic problem. The IMF's approach to such problems is best compared to surgery without anesthesia. The patient may survive and be better for it, but the agony will be intense. In return for any bailout, the IMF will demand a restructuring of Ukraine's finances. Given Ukraine's finances, that restructuring would be dramatic. And the consequences could well lead to yet another round of protests.

    The Russians have agreed to this, likely chuckling. Either parliament will reject the IMF plan and ask Russia to assume the burden immediately, or it will turn to Russia after experiencing the pain. There is a reason the Russians have been so relaxed about events in Ukraine. They understand that between the debt, natural gas and tariffs on Ukrainian exports to Russia, Ukraine has extremely powerful constraints. Under the worst circumstances Ukraine would move into the Western camp an economic cripple. Under the best, Ukraine would recognize its fate and turn to Russia.

    What the Europeans and Americans were doing in Ukraine is less clear. They had the triumphant moment and they have eliminated a corrupt leader. But they certainly are not ready to take on the burden of Ukraine's economic problems. And with those economic problems, the ability to form a government that does not suffer from the ills of Yanukovich is slim. Good intentions notwithstanding, the Ukrainians will not like the IMF deal.

    I will guess at two motives for European and American actions. One is to repay the Russians for their more aggressive stance in the world and to remind them of how vulnerable Russia is. The second is as a low-risk human rights intervention to satisfy internal political demand without risking much. The pure geopolitical explanation -- that they did this in order to gain a platform from which to threaten Russia and increase its caution -- is hard to believe. None of these powers were in a position to protect Ukraine from Russian economic or military retaliation. None of them have any appetite for threatening Russia's fundamental interests.

    As stated above, the question now is two fold. Will the Ukrainian parliament, once the adrenaline of revolution stops flowing, be able to govern, or will it fall into the factional gridlock that a presidential system was supposed to solve? Further, will the east and Crimea decide they don't want to cast their lot with the new regime and proceed to secede, either becoming independent or joining Russia? In large part the second question will be determined by the first. If the parliament is gridlocked, or it adopts measures hostile to the east and Crimea, secession is possible. Of course, if it decides to accommodate these regions, it is not clear how the government will differ from Yanukovich's.

    Revolutions are much easier to make than to recover from. This was not such a vast uprising that it takes much recovery. But to the extent that Ukraine had a constitutional democracy, that is now broken by people who said their intention was to create one. The issue is whether good intentions align with reality. It is never a bad idea to be pessimistic about Ukraine. Perhaps this time will be different.


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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:24 pm

    To me, the whole situation is a bit baffling. There's just too much that isn't clear. We just don't know much about so many key facts.

    What is Putin planning? Is he thinking long term, rather than in terms of issues of "face" (to quote the Chinese) ie short term prestige?

    Then there are other issues that are really unclear. What does Russia really want? How much of the country would support a pro Russia stance? How much would support the European and American interferers stance? What sort of split solution, short or long term could be adopted?

    Last yr Yanukovich was all set for the EU. Then he realises that would be disastrous. And then all sorts of scum appear, making out some bullshit story of "evil Russia vs the EU/US saviours".

    WHats clear is that overnight, the Ukraine has been turned into some 3rd world tinpot shitheap. (And my family are from Kiev, so thats not a description I'm happy to make. But either way, this isn't the way credibly countries operate.

    You can't have mobs destroying political offices, killing judges etc. So why did it happen? Why didn't Yanuk draft in extra police from theEast, or even support from Russia in an "anti terror" operation, which could be martial law in all but name?

    What is Russia going to do to give the US and EU a taste of their own medicine? You can block punches all day, but its a lot easier just to punch someone back, and more sensible.

    Why didn't Yanuk call for anti-terror support from Russia, in the East. And then send Ukrainians across from the East to Kiev and the West?
    Russia didn't sign the EU ousting of Yanuk. Why didn't he go to the East of the Ukraine, and say that Russia would guarantee all politicians security there until stability and arrests had been made ie reconvene Parliament there?

    Obviously the S and East are strongly pro-Russian, but they can't let Kiev fall into Nazi hands, or even EU hands. As for that hellhole called Lvov, I couldn't care if it was destroyed by an asteroid... or Iskanders..!

    The British TV, the BBC is talking about Russia being "menacing" ie suggesting Russia could react in military terms. I think the Russian phrase would be "military peacekeeping". Because joining the EU courtesy of Nazism is just bizarre.

    Finally Russia isn't exactly "liked" by the bullying US, or the meddling EU. But if it sent troops to Kiev, who would it deterirorate relations with? I mean, the opposition are NAZIS! British people for instance are horrified at the idea of Britain and the EU funding a Nazi state. And to most Brits, most of Eastern Europe is considered "Russian" in one way or another.

    Very puzzling situation..
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:36 pm

    It isn't puzzling at all, the facts are this nazi scum is in minority and took over the government without legal bases, threatned politicians and forced them under violance to push through illegal laws, started and backed up by USA and under this exact situation in a country where russia has its military bases and is direct at the front door, it has its right to protect itself and lets assume Russia would start a facistic revolution in canada or mexico would anyone accuse USA of interfering and manipulating this countries for own benefits without mentioning for a second that it is a huge violation of US security through such an coup from russian side, but sure accuse russia of trying to be tyran and just have a puppet beneath it, don't use your brains and think for yourself but just repeat like a parrot each BS what western controlled media spews out. USA is already in more than 130++ countries and is surrounding Russia more and more.

    Blame Putin but don't question anything the west does, Putin tries only to do to keep his "status quo" and USA and EU are just philanthropists that just can't help themselfs but trying to safe everyone from the bad bad ivan (putin) and his violant "aparatschik".


    I don't know what kind of two digit IQ someone must have to call a puzzle of 2+2 pieces a "puzzling" situation.
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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:03 pm

    WerewolfIt isn't puzzling at all, the facts are this nazi scum is in minority and took over the government without legal bases, threatned politicians and forced them under violance to push through illegal laws, started and backed up by USA and under this exact situation in a country where russia has its military bases and is direct at the front door, it has its right to protect itself and lets assume Russia would start a facistic revolution in canada or mexico would anyone accuse USA of interfering and manipulating this countries for own benefits without mentioning for a second that it is a huge violation of US security through such an coup from russian side, but sure accuse russia of trying to be tyran and just have a puppet beneath it, don't use your brains and think for yourself but just repeat like a parrot each BS what western controlled media spews out. USA is already in more than 130++ countries and is surrounding Russia more and more. 

    Blame Putin but don't question anything the west does, Putin tries only to do to keep his "status quo" and USA and EU are just philanthropists that just can't help themselfs but trying to safe everyone from the bad bad ivan (putin) and his violant "aparatschik".


    I don't know what kind of two digit IQ someone must have to call a puzzle of 2+2 pieces a "puzzling" situation.




    You really are a fucking idiot aren't you!
    What is puzzling is the fact that Putin has only criticised in measured terms, rather than putting down the "red marker". He hasn't made a repeat demand that the terrorists give up their arms or Russia will assist Yanukovich/Party of Regions in an anti-terror operation.

    He hasn't mentioned the legal justification for intervention ie the agreement that NATO/the US wouldn't interfere in the Eastern bloc, esp the Ukraine. This isn't Russia getting involved in some Middle Eastern nowhere land. This is Russian citizens, the mother city of the Russian people, and what was the same country for most of its citizens just over 20yrs ago.

    For the benefit of everyone else, I'm sure Putin has got certain things planned. But how far is he intending to influence matters? Would he accept a Federal Ukraine? Jettisoning the West of it, and having the rest in the Customs Union? Will he say "enough is enough" of neo Nazis in the government there?

    Save the replies Weirdwolf, you say I have a "double digit IQ", yours is SINGLE. Bearing in mind you spend half your time claiming exterminations by Nazis are a "conspiracy theory", I'm surprised you aren't waving a Nazi flag in WankerMaiden as we speak..Knobend.
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    Post  TR1 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:41 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:According to the new Stratfor article the situation can be described as "a Russian gambit".

    Nobody takes Statfor seriously after they got Wikileaked badly.
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    Post  zino on Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:59 pm

    by Interfax-Ukraine
    "Donetsk mayor recognizes Verkhovna Rada legitimacy".
    Akhmetov's lackey, I suppose. The guy will run for the presidency also.

    It would be important to get rid of the PoR right now. And encouraging the emergence of new persons from the civil society as the new mayor of Sevastopol. That should be the job for Russia. That could change everything in the long run. For the short not much can be done, I fear.

    Btw only Sevastopol is resisting? Donetsk is fucked as we know. Any news of resistance in Simferopol, Odessa, Kharkov, Lugansk, Zaporozhye or elsewhere?
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:13 pm

    Save the replies Weirdwolf, you say I have a "double digit IQ", yours is SINGLE. Bearing in mind you spend half your time claiming exterminations by Nazis are a "conspiracy theory", I'm surprised you aren't waving a Nazi flag in WankerMaiden as we speak..Knobend. wrote:

    And again you cross a red line calling me literally a Nazi, denying facts and insulting me directly.
    The problem with you is you are such short sighted person that can't even comprehent actions and reactions based on historical documented policy of both sides. You are puzzled through your limited knowledge of Putins policy towards ukrainen facist party? You think he would or should back up such pussy and egoistic money stealing yanukovich? He waits it out he knows in few month from now on, EU will settle down and wait for Russia to bail out this stupid idiots who run their country into disaster even worse than russia under yeltzin. There are two possibilities a) normal ukrainians start a revolution of their own to throw out this facist scum and will then be backed and supported by Russia to stabilize ukraine and will be again the primary focus of russophobic propaganda by western media or b) the people will not start a any revolution to take back their country and EU will still settle down and run the game slow and the facist fools who will "feel" betrayed by their promizing EU and will try to demand things from russia like gas and oil and start a smeer campaign of the russians try to starve us out, like the west loves to pick up such nonsense.

    But you can keep your atitude and constant "you are a facist" bullshit with your lack of education in this specific area.
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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:38 pm

    Nothing wrong with MY level of education about Russian affairs. Infact, that coming from  a GERMAN, infact one of jawdropping levels of idiocy, that is ALMOST amusing.

    You seem to forget, fuckwit. The Nazis won't exactly be playing by the rules as they seep further into the organs of power. Meaning more deaths of Russians, and decent Ukrainians. Dictotors operate via fear, and via the influence of foreign friends in low places. Just like the current scum that claim to have won a coup. But then, you do have some bizarre admiration for Nazis, don't you!

    Now fuck off back to WankerMaiden and start yelling your crap about "extermination claims being false".. You joker.
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    Post  Regular on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:52 pm

    Well Rada is controlled by all breeds of morrons and not only Nazis. Some of them were Yank butt buddies and only changed their colour until recently.
    Sad thing is that I start to agree with Praviy Sector fascists about 1 thing. They claim that revolution was stolen by trio of power-hungry thugs and nothing will change in Ukraine. I'm sure those guys will be deposed soon as undemocratic pro Russian terrorists:D


    Last edited by Regular on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:54 pm

    TR1 wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:According to the new Stratfor article the situation can be described as "a Russian gambit".

    Nobody takes Statfor seriously after they got Wikileaked badly.

    What got leaked?
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:01 pm

    Regular wrote:Well Rada is controlled by all breeds of morrons and not only Nazis. Some of them were Yank butt buddies and only changed their colour until recently.
    Sad thing is that I start to agree with Praviy Sector fascists about 1 thing. They claim that revolution was stolen by trio of power-hungry thugs and nothing will change in Ukraine. I'm sure those guys will be deposed soon as undemocratic pro Russian terrorists:D

    Who even cares?

    Don't give a damn about Kiev, they can all start bashing each other, doesn't concern me.

    I want Eastern Ukraine to take their future into their own hands and refuse to recognize the bandits who have seized power in Kiev and in the rest of the Ukraine; doesn't matter if it's Svoboda, Pravyj Sektor, or the more moderate parties - they all took power illegally; and then installed their own people in every single position; acting president, acting prime minister, head of the MVD, finance minsiter, industry minister, foreign minister, etc...

    Who voted for these people? Were elections organised? Nation-wide referendums?

    Millions of people's voices across the Eastern Ukrainian heartland were deprived; the government they voted it, corrupt as it was - was thrown out and now basically they are being told to sit down and shut up. In Dneprpetrovsk the city council acted completely against the will of their own electorate - and renamed their main square from Lenin sq. to Heroes of Maidan sq.
    Anti-maidan meetings have been threatened by local prosecutor offices
    A law instating the Russian language as regional in Eastern Ukraine has been revoked, and a new law putting restrictions on the broadcasting of Russian media in the country has been approved
    In Kharkov the leader of the 'Oplot' organisation, who crashed the local maidanites party and routed 1.5x their number - is now wanted for questioning by the police.
    The TV media and most of the internet media has also gone completely over to the side of the new 'government' (although much of it was on their side even before); it now prints nonstop unverified BS and censors, neglects to mention anti-Maidan actions and meetings.
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:41 pm

    Infact, that coming from a GERMAN, infact one of jawdropping levels of idiocy, that is ALMOST amusing.
    You seem to forget, fuckwit. .... But then, you do have some bizarre admiration for Nazis, don't you! Now fuck off back to WankerMaiden and start yelling your crap about "extermination claims being false".. You joker. wrote:

    Can an admin do his job before i lose my temper with this retarded fool and his nazi accusations.
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    Post  medo on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:19 pm

    I think Russia for now will do nothing regarding Ukraine, specially they will not go to war there. Don't forget, Putin is excellent strategist and read well both Machiavelli and Sun Tzu. Putin show, that he can strike like a lighting in South Ossetia as well as that he can wait. Why would Putin split blood of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, when he could wait and Ukraine will itself come to Russia, at least a part. He sees a wider picture. Be sure that Putin and Xi Jinping have a long conversation about lot of things to synchronize their work in time of Sochi Olympics. China will in coming years use its money bomb to crash US economy which will lead to collapse of US empire. With US, EU will also go down. So what chances will have Ukraine with large debt, no money and crash of US and EU? Like it or not, they will have to turn to Russia to survive. Without money Kiev will also not be able to pay their army and police, so they will not be able to go in any serious war in eastern Ukraine. They could terrorize it for some time, but nothing more.

    Western Ukraine could become an EU member only if they become part of Poland.
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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:37 pm

    Werewolf wrote:

    Can an admin do his job before i lose my temper with this retarded fool and his nazi accusations.
    Yes, it would be nice for an admin to do something with you!

    Claiming Nazi exterminations were made up. 
    And now you start making abusive comments, after I did my level best to categorically ignore you.
    You're a joke. Clear off to some German bierkellar tea dance forums. And do us all a favour!

    The topic of this thread is THE UKRAINE!!! Try and remember it!
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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:43 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Regular wrote:Well Rada is controlled by all breeds of morrons and not only Nazis. Some of them were Yank butt buddies and only changed their colour until recently.
    Sad thing is that I start to agree with Praviy Sector fascists about 1 thing. They claim that revolution was stolen by trio of power-hungry thugs and nothing will change in Ukraine. I'm sure those guys will be deposed soon as undemocratic pro Russian terrorists:D

    Who even cares?

    Don't give a damn about Kiev, they can all start bashing each other, doesn't concern me.

    I want Eastern Ukraine to take their future into their own hands and refuse to recognize the bandits who have seized power in Kiev and in the rest of the Ukraine; doesn't matter if it's Svoboda, Pravyj Sektor, or the more moderate parties - they all took power illegally; and then installed their own people in every single position; acting president, acting prime minister, head of the MVD, finance minsiter, industry minister, foreign minister, etc...

    Who voted for these people? Were elections organised? Nation-wide referendums?

    Millions of people's voices across the Eastern Ukrainian heartland were deprived; the government they voted it, corrupt as it was - was thrown out and now basically they are being told to sit down and shut up. In Dneprpetrovsk the city council acted completely against the will of their own electorate - and renamed their main square from Lenin sq. to Heroes of Maidan sq.
    Anti-maidan meetings have been threatened by local prosecutor offices
    A law instating the Russian language as regional in Eastern Ukraine has been revoked, and a new law putting restrictions on the broadcasting of Russian media in the country has been approved
    In Kharkov the leader of the 'Oplot' organisation, who crashed the local maidanites party and routed 1.5x their number - is now wanted for questioning by the police.
    The TV media and most of the internet media has also gone completely over to the side of the new 'government' (although much of it was on their side even before); it now prints nonstop unverified BS and censors, neglects to mention anti-Maidan actions and meetings.
     
    But Kiev is so important to the culture, the Orthodox Church and history of Russia. If the Central Ukraine is given to bandits, NATO and EU, then numerous Republics of the Russian Federation could be attacked too.

    Its only fanatical scum that has given the Central Ukraine any inkling of "non-Russian" sentiment. Before the Gr Patriotic War, Kiev was theconsidered 90% Russian. I just feel the vast majority of these people are "winnable" by Russia. As for the loons of Lvov, however...the only issue is trying to retain the Carpathians for strategic defence.
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:46 pm

    You little piece of shit racist should stop right there.
    Like i said you have no clue about the holohoax, calling someone nazi and making stupid and ignorant remarks about me being german, shows your world view and pathetic propogandized mentality. Started to insult me 3 times in one post and now daring to bitch around like alittle pussy when i call you stupid?
    Foolish idiot that is exactly what you are, accusing me of being a nazi while in every single post of mine it is clearly the opposite.

    Your bullshit stands no ground and you won't convince anyone with your fucked up accusations and your low life rage campaign against me.
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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:47 pm

    medo wrote:I think Russia for now will do nothing regarding Ukraine, specially they will not go to war there. Don't forget, Putin is excellent strategist and read well both Machiavelli and Sun Tzu. Putin show, that he can strike like a lighting in South Ossetia as well as that he can wait. Why would Putin split blood of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, when he could wait and Ukraine will itself come to Russia, at least a part. He sees a wider picture. Be sure that Putin and Xi Jinping have a long conversation about lot of things to synchronize their work in time of Sochi Olympics. China will in coming years use its money bomb to crash US economy which will lead to collapse of US empire. With US, EU will also go down. So what chances will have Ukraine with large debt, no money and crash of US and EU? Like it or not, they will have to turn to Russia to survive. Without money Kiev will also not be able to pay their army and police, so they will not be able to go in any serious war in eastern Ukraine. They could terrorize it for some time, but nothing more.

    Western Ukraine could become an EU member only if they become part of Poland.
    Ofcourse, there is complete idiocy in the management of the EU and some major problems with the US. However, I don't think either will economically disappear down the toilet.

    The problem is that the W Ukrainians have kept creeping forward with their shitty little plans, year after year. You see it with other countries promoting their silly languages and stuff to little kids. In Britain, they promote this pathetic Welsh language, even tho most of the kids are ethnically English... or something else. And its the same in the Ukraine.

    Sure, the E and South can be picked up quite easily by Russia. But the battle for the Centre, or to federalise and keep some strategic interest in the Carpathians... time might be considered more of the essence.
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    Post  TR1 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:51 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    TR1 wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:According to the new Stratfor article the situation can be described as "a Russian gambit".

    Nobody takes Statfor seriously after they got Wikileaked badly.

    What got leaked?

    Their internal emails, by the staffers who contribute to their "research" and articles.

    Enjoy:

    http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?209508-WikiLeaks-Russia-gave-Israel-codes-for-defense-system-sold-to-Iran

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    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:59 pm

    Werewolf wrote:You little piece of shit racist should stop right there.
    Like i said you have no clue about the holohoax, calling someone nazi and making stupid and ignorant remarks about me being german, shows your world view and pathetic propogandized mentality. Started to insult me 3 times in one post and now daring to bitch around like alittle pussy when i call you stupid?
    Foolish idiot that is exactly what you are, accusing me of being a nazi while in every single post of mine it is clearly the opposite.

    Your bullshit stands no ground and you won't convince anyone with your fucked up accusations and your low life rage campaign against me.
    Fucked up you say? Racist you say?

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t2614p30-enemies-of-russia

    Everyone else (bar one looney!) was able to realise what a clown you are.

    You're nothing but scum, vermin, dogshit. CLaiming that exterminations of Russians, Slavs, Jews etc were made up. Claiming that the Soviet Union was a "jewish conspiracy".

    Thank God some of the  Red Army had the right idea with your kind when they entered Berlin.
    PS clearly you're actually too dim to realise that your comments are actually ILLEGAL in Germany. Time for an email methinks..

    Call me a pussy to my face, and I'd take your empty head off its shoulders.
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:01 pm

    Sounds very unlikely, there wouldn't be a single possitive effect for russia making such a deal.

    Iran has hijacked US RQ-170 drones with russian export model atenna and Georgia has nothing that advanced and wouldn't make sense to make such an awfull deal as long it wasn't done secretley behind any direct authorities for security of russia and the security for company and its future export capabilities.
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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:09 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    Fucked up you say? Racist you say?

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t2614p30-enemies-of-russia

    Everyone else (bar one looney!) was able to realise what a clown you are.

    You're nothing but scum, vermin, dogshit. CLaiming that exterminations of Russians, Slavs, Jews etc were made up. Claiming that the Soviet Union was a "jewish conspiracy".

    Thank God some of the  Red Army had the right idea with your kind when they entered Berlin.
    PS clearly you're actually too dim to realise that your comments are actually ILLEGAL in Germany. Time for an email methinks..

    Call me a pussy to my face, and I'd take your empty head off its shoulders.

    You little piece of shit, i never said extermination of slavs and russians was made up, i did say the main objective was the extermination of SLAVIC population like general plan ost proofs, so stop pushing your fucked up bullshit lies and twisting my words, everyone in this forum knows me and has by far longer experience in this discussions with Katyusha user which has already proven with sources facts for that. So fuck off.
    What i said and what is true is, germany never had an industrial extermination programm inside 3rd Reich in terms of gas chambers, no 6 mio. jews were ever killed this number and the gas chamber bullshit are lies, i said nothing more nothing less.
    Yes jews died, but not in gas chambers and not 6 mln but 1.2 mln jews died, not a single jew was gased. So spare me your bullshit and your "education of ww2" which is nothing more than the story of the west.

    And for your information you piece of shit i am GERMAN RUSSIAN stop forcing your fucked up racist propaganda and hatred towards me and fuck off.


    [quote="PS clearly you're actually too dim to realise that your comments are actually ILLEGAL in Germany. Time for an email methinks.. Call me a pussy to my face, and I'd take your empty head off its shoulders.[/quote]"]

    Which is another proof that i am right, making something ILLEGAL just shows that this is a highly questionable bullshit story. And threatening me you crossed again a line, making such bullshit remarks like you are some sort of hulk, don't embarrasse yourself you little shithead.
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    Post  Regular on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:27 pm

    I bet those jews who are thankful for Red army and allies to free them from camps where just actors. Very Happy Common Werewolf, there are plenty Russian jews who where exterminated by Nazis as well. And ffs my country killed more than 90 percent of litvaks.
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    Post  macedonian on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:45 pm

    Guys you really need to tone it down a bit.
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:46 pm

    **sigh**
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    Post  Firebird on Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:21 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    Fucked up you say? Racist you say?

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t2614p30-enemies-of-russia

    Everyone else (bar one looney!) was able to realise what a clown you are.

    You're nothing but scum, vermin, dogshit. CLaiming that exterminations of Russians, Slavs, Jews etc were made up. Claiming that the Soviet Union was a "jewish conspiracy".

    Thank God some of the  Red Army had the right idea with your kind when they entered Berlin.
    PS clearly you're actually too dim to realise that your comments are actually ILLEGAL in Germany. Time for an email methinks..

    Call me a pussy to my face, and I'd take your empty head off its shoulders.

    You little piece of shit, i never said extermination of slavs and russians was made up, i did say the main objective was the extermination of SLAVIC population like general plan ost proofs, so stop pushing your fucked up bullshit lies and twisting my words, everyone in this forum knows me and has by far longer experience in this discussions with Katyusha user which has already proven with sources facts for that. So fuck off.
    What i said and what is true is, germany never had an industrial extermination programm inside 3rd Reich in terms of gas chambers, no 6 mio. jews were ever killed this number and the gas chamber bullshit are lies, i said nothing more nothing less.
    Yes jews died, but not in gas chambers and not 6 mln but 1.2 mln jews died, not a single jew was gased. So spare me your bullshit and your "education of ww2" which is nothing more than the story of the west.

    And for your information you piece of shit i am GERMAN RUSSIAN stop forcing your fucked up racist propaganda and hatred towards me and fuck off.


    [quote="PS clearly you're actually too dim to realise that your comments are actually ILLEGAL in Germany. Time for an email methinks..  Call me a pussy to my face, and I'd take your empty head off its shoulders.
     double post.


    Last edited by Firebird on Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:22 am; edited 1 time in total

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