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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:23 pm

    If an Ukr nationalist takes power - the Eastern regions will adopt exactly the same behaviour as the Western ones have in this crisis;

    Storming the regional administration
    Forcing governors to abdicate
    Seperating from central control
    Banning opposition parties

    The Western regions have done all of this and now the Crimea has followed suit; a whole coalition of organisations there are proposed to separate from the Ukraine, the Svoboda party was banned there, etc...
    When Euromaidan activists arrived in Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkov, etc... they were either ignored or chased out.

    So we really are looking at the last straw, the East is waking up and rising to the occasion now that the Western regions have declared open rebellion against the government. If the West wins this confrontation, the East will rebel.

    I didn't think I'd ever hear myself say this... but at this point we should seriously consider whether this would indeed be the best way out of this crisis. A more or less peaceful Czechoslovakia-like split, in the short-term to prevent a potential struggle for power that could get ugly between Party of Regions/Communist supporters and Udar/Fatherland/Svoboda, and in the long term as a way to avert the increasingly destructive cycle of political mayhem and violence going on in the Ukraine, and the economic collapse that this process brings with it especially for the industrial Eastern regions of the Ukraine. Let East be East and West be West, the two shall never again meet, and both rule themselves as they see fit.

    If the Eastern regions of the Ukraine declare rebellion and then independence following the rise of a new 'Orange leader', then he will be no more equipped to stop it than Yanukovich was in preventing the Western regions from sliding into revolution and deposing the current officials there. Sending in Berkut/Griffon won't be an option, Maidan activists and ultranationalists will get pounced, and the military won't do anything either. Actually it will be a state of complete anarchy and paralysis.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:31 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    etaepsilonk


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    Post  etaepsilonk Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:25 pm





    Looks like polarisation of a country is imminent:
    http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/01/28/p18fc98edf15ud191u5uh1qf1njh4/content.jpg
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:55 pm

    flamming_python wrote:If an Ukr nationalist takes power - the Eastern regions will adopt exactly the same behaviour as the Western ones have in this crisis;

    Storming the regional administration
    Forcing governors to abdicate
    Seperating from central control
    Banning opposition parties

    The Western regions have done all of this and now the Crimea has followed suit; a whole coalition of organisations there are proposed to separate from the Ukraine, the Svoboda party was banned there, etc...
    When Euromaidan activists arrived in Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkov, etc... they were either ignored or chased out.

    So we really are looking at the last straw, the East is waking up and rising to the occasion now that the Western regions have declared open rebellion against the government. If the West wins this confrontation, the East will rebel.

    That much is to be expected.

    flamming_python wrote:I didn't think I'd ever hear myself say this... but at this point we should seriously consider whether this would indeed be the best way out of this crisis. A more or less peaceful Czechoslovakia-like split, in the short-term to prevent a potential struggle for power that could get ugly between Party of Regions/Communist supporters and Udar/Fatherland/Svoboda, and in the long term as a way to avert the increasingly destructive cycle of political mayhem and violence going on in the Ukraine, and the economic collapse that this process brings with it especially for the industrial Eastern regions of the Ukraine. Let East be East and West be West, the two shall never again meet, and both rule themselves as they see fit.

    If the Eastern regions of the Ukraine declare rebellion and then independence following the rise of a new 'Orange leader', then he will be no more equipped to stop it than Yanukovich was in preventing the Western regions from sliding into revolution and deposing the current officials there. Sending in Berkut/Griffon won't be an option, Maidan activists and ultranationalists will get pounced, and the military won't do anything either. Actually it will be a state of complete anarchy and paralysis.
    Separating Ukraine into East and West will not solve the problem it will only be a temporary fix before some fool in the (near) future decides that the two should be re-unified (ala North and South Vietnam, Korea, ect), a more long term idea would be for Eastern Ukraine to re-unify with Russia itself, but that's just my opinion.  angel 
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:44 pm

    a more long term idea would be for Eastern Ukraine to re-unify with Russia itself, but that's just my opinion.

    And bring the Crimea with them...
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    Post  AlfaT8 Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:53 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    a more long term idea would be for Eastern Ukraine to re-unify with Russia itself, but that's just my opinion.

    And bring the Crimea with them...
    Of course, Russia gets the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gets long term stability, if they handle it well (via a referendum(s)).
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    Post  Regular Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:11 am

    I'm pretty sure Eastern Ukraine could do well on their own, especially when majority of industry is based there Smile 
    After these two split there would be no ethnic nonsense. But Russia and Europe have to keep an eye on them to make it happen peacefully. I only hope US will not interfere start meddling Smile
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    Post  mutantsushi Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:42 am

    Hi, first time posting here...
    I thought some might appreciate this map I made with Google Earth, depicting possible Ukraine partition scenarios.

    For all the work in making this map, partition seems far from the foregone conclusion at this point, though.
    Despite the Orange and Ultra accusations of Russia provoking a partition of Ukraine, Russia has in fact done everything but.
    If Russia wished to, it could have done so long ago, yet has refrained.  Remembering Ukraine's last presidential election, Russia in fact seemed able to work with either side that won: the accusations against Timoshenko of course are for cooperating with Russia. Party of Regions is somewhat correlated to a 'Russophile' sentiment or population, but it just really is not a great 'champion' for that cause, the flirting with EU clearly shows that, and if he had better options Yanukovych shows no sign he would really prefer aligning with Russia/Putin.  The partition of Ukraine is really not the #1 best scenario for Russia, and playing for a united Ukraine that is reasonably cooperative with Russia and NOT part of NATO seems to have been Russia's plan so far: leaving Crimea within Ukraine, which has the least reason to be within Ukraine, helped Russia's position by shoring up the Russophile vote.  

    That said, the Orange/Ultra factions could end up provoking a situation where SE Russophile Ukraine feels forced to step up for their interests and pursue partition, either for independence or uniting with Russia.  Russia's latest friendly gestures indicating that the same gas/loan deal Yanukovych agreed to is also available to them really puts the ball in their court: they either continue in a path of cooperation with Russia which is to Russia's interest, or they pursue ties with EU which would conflict with that (as Russia has laid out), and they will be actively sabotaging a 'good deal' for much of Ukraine... causing the SE Ukraine most negatively affected by that to act.  The cohabitation of Orange parties, UDAR, and the Ultras is an unstable situation, and the Ultras will certainly try to push things in an anti-Russian direction.  Civil disorder from an estranged Ultra faction against their recent allies, in combination with SE Ukraine unhappiness against an Orange government could lead to a situation where the SE could easily separate.  Any Orange/Ultra attempt to repeal official status for Russia language would only precipitate that.

    Anyways, about the map: It doesn't include the far West and South/East just because the important part is the dividing border.
    Of course both sides would like the largest area possible, but including areas that don't politically agree makes the border less stable long-term.
    I see propaganda from Russia and that side considering Kiev as "East Ukraine" that would remain tied to Russia, but that just isn't valid anymore.
    If partition DOES occur (which I think is not a certain outcome), Kiev seems certain to be in the 'non-Russophile' portion, at least in a consensual, stable solution.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #1 - Page 11 Ukrain11

    I made the map based on the last parliamentary election results, primarily using the multi-seat result as most strongly representative.
    The exception is the orange and green ('Party of Regions') enclaves, which either are isolated from their political affinity (Northern Zhytomyr Oblast),
    or are so materially tied to a metropolitan region on the opposite political side, that joining them with their political affinity seems unrealistic.
    I used actual highway and road networks along with proximity to major cities and towns to make that distinction.
    The "Orange" enclaves within the Hot Pink border also are necessary for contiguity between Kremenchuk and the rest of South/East Ukraine.

    I also present further regions that 'could' be attached to a 'South East Ukraine' entity, although they are not necessary for that to be viable.
    These are shaded in colors progressing from purple to light blue, representing decreasing likelyhood/desirability.
    Within these regions, the "Orange" shading means something slightly different than the Orange within the Hot Pink border (on the SE Ukraine side):
    in these 'optional' regions, the orange shading indicates where "Orange" parties won the single-seat election as well as the multi-seat election,
    so in otherwords they are districts where Party of Regions support is extremely low, and thus including these orange shaded areas is not ideal.
    Within the Hot Pink border (on the SE Ukraine side), the orange regions were actually won by Party of Regions in the single-seat election.

    The green area in Northern Chernihiv Oblast actually is politically similar to the "Hot Pink" border area, but was just too close to Chernihiv city.
    If despite that, said region wanted to join a 'Russophile Ukraine' or accede to Russia along with the Shostka/NE Sumy Oblast region, that should be fine.
    The rest of Chernihiv Oblast was won by Lyashko's Radical Party, not closely Orange-aligned, so it is up to this faction which 'side' to join in partition.
    The furthest NE portion of Chernihiv Oblast is actually closer to Shostka region and so I included it within the Hot Pink border of the Russophile region, even while the adjacent green area close to Chernihiv City was not, based on distances and roads.

    In terms of Sumy Oblast, the most likely/desirable regions (that weren't won by Party of Regions in the multi-seat election) would be the region containing Sumy City itself, which I have isolated from more rural regions in SW Sumy Oblast, to allow a highway from Kharkiv to NE Sumy Oblast.  The only 'strongly Orange' districts here are most of Sumy City itself, and the most southern district which is sparsely populated (and which I divided, as the western portion is more closely linked with towns outside this region).  Without this region, the NE portion of Sumy Oblast would be isolated from the 'Russophile' entity, and probably would either merge with Russia or remain with West Ukraine.  

    The southern/southwestern Sumy Oblast region outlined in blue is ALL 'strongly Orange' sentiment, yet seems strongly linked to both Sumy City and Kharkiv, thus it might 'make sense' to go along with the larger regions' politics, though it does not seem unviable to not do so.  The west/north-western Sumy Oblast region of Konotop-Krolevets actually contains signifigant 'green' Party of Regions supporting regions, and only a small amount of 'strongly Orange' sentiment.  This could possibly accede to the 'Russophile' entity whether or not Sumy City joins it, but I would say the chances of Konotop-Krolevets joining is vastly increased IF Sumy City does remain in the 'Russophile' entity, and almost certain if even just Chernihiv joins, much less both Chernihiv and Sumy City.  There is a rural region just south of Konotop which I shaded as distinct because it could be viable irrespective of Konotop's status, but if both Konotop and Sumy City remain 'Russophile', the logic for this region coming along does increase alot.

    Around Kremenchuk, the purple outlined regions seem rather closely tied to Kremenchuk (and/or nearby Oleksandriya) so would do well to go along, but at the same time it doesn't seem unviable if they were not to do so, since they are not too isolated from Poltava City and Cherkassy City, respectively.  The light blue regions abutting these are similar, but seem less tied to Kremenchuk/Oleksandriya, as they are equidistant to Poltava City and the major highway leading there, so it seems more wholly up to political preference.  I include all the remainder of Kirovhrad Oblast because it too has reasonable interests/ties, being on the major highway linking Kremenchuk and Odessa, and also being close to Dnipropetrovsk.  All of these areas were won by Party of Regions in the single-seat election, with the exception of the majority of Kirovhrad city, which was the only 'strongly Orange' district.

    With a more strongly Russophile SE Ukraine, the importance of Crimea in electorally balancing Orange tendencies somewhat disappears.  While perhaps not really an urgent issue if SE Ukraine is strongly Russophile, a deal where Moscow pays off SE Ukraine/takes over it's debt in exchange for full sovereignty of Crimea and Sevastopol seems plausible.  Somewhat relatedly, Transnistria and Gagauzia from Moldova could very well have reason to secede and join 'Novo Rossiya'/SE Ukraine, if Moldova continues to move in direction towards EU and/or unification with Romania. (that's also possible if Ukraine doesn't partition, but it almost seems more likely if Ukraine does partition, otherwise the Orange would see that as affecting the electoral balance to their disadvantage)

    How would these two halves relate?
     Optimistically, they could manage to separate somewhat amicably.  With separate West-Central and South-East Ukrainian states, the conflict between Party of Regions and the Orange parties loses it's centrality.  The Orange parties would no longer need the Ultranationalists to achieve power, so they could aim to sideline them and pursue a more moderate policy.  Even if EU focused, the tension of feeling drawn into Russia's sphere would be gone, and a 'reasonable' relation to both EU and Russia could be pursued in meantime (i.e. as Russia has wanted all along with united Ukraine, but could not achieve because of EU/Orange politics).  Broken in two, EU aid to Western Ukraine would effectively be doubled in effectiveness, disregarding any further efficiencies from not needing to restructure heavy industry in SE Ukraine, so perhaps both sides could be more succesful apart.  With SE Ukraine separated, there is no fear of Russian language being 'dominant', so actually fulfilling European norms for minority languages could be achieved, allowing Russian language rights in Kiev or wherever it's significant. As in Croatia, they could even rely on small Russophile or Transcarpathian parties for a majority, without the Ultranationalists.   Keeping good relations in the short and long terms means avoiding military conflict.  A treaty keeping foreign forces and military alliances out of BOTH West and East Ukraine seems most likely to achieve that (and that would provide a reason for SE Ukraine to sell Crimea to Russia, letting Russia have free reign there, not far from status quo re: Sevastopol, but not extending military bases to Odessa, etc.)


    Last edited by mutantsushi on Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:58 am; edited 3 times in total
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    Post  mutantsushi Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:47 am

    Regular wrote:I'm pretty sure Eastern Ukraine could do well on their own, especially when majority of industry is based there Smile 
    After these two split there would be no ethnic nonsense.
    But Russia and Europe have to keep an eye on them to make it happen peacefully. I only hope US will not interfere start meddling Smile
    Indeed, keeping both sides happy is one thing, but some interests may be more motivated by keeping one side unhappy: that must be avoided.
    And avoiding that seems as plausible as not:
    Russia is on a roll, extremist-allied politics are visibly failing left and right, and Germany's SPD is now in charge of foreign policy, with a clearly friendly/realist approach to Russia.
    With Russia also once again voicing it's interest in free-trade agreement with EU (clearly a medium term project, if that, but still establishing intent and tone),
    EU seems to have good basis to prevent US or other interests from creating a permanent problem in it's back yard.
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:38 am

    Excellent 1st post mutantsushi, although I would advise you to introduce yourself now in the Introductions forum sub-section; as a mod will come along and tell you the same thing anyway.

    I agree with almost all of your analysis; especially about Russia's policy, some keen insight here - and I have my own contributions to make too.

    DISCLAIMER: I hope all this does stay on the level of theory, and Ukrainians figure out a compromise to keep their country united and not to mention - friendly towards Russia

    1). Support for the Regions party doesn't neccesserily mean support for a seperation of the country, or seperatism into a seperate republic. You have to realise that among Regions supporters I'd think that most people would be against it, as would most Ukrainians in general. But under certain situations it will become an inevitability that the Ukraine ceases to exist and simply splits into 2 countries. Under that scenario there will simply be 1 of 2 choices that every Ukrainian will have to make - in which case we can assume that Party of Regions and Communist party supporters will chose the Russophile entity as opposed to the the Western Ukrainian entity that will be simply antagonistic to their views and language.

    2). An important thing for a 'Russophile' Ukraine (let's call it Malorussia) is that it's territory should extend to Pridnestrovie/Transdniestr, allowing that republic to be integrated into its economic space and to the wider CIS/CSTO/EurAsEC sphere, if not join Malorussia altogether (in the case of a worsening of the situation in Moldova). The same goes for Gagauzia too. So for that reason it's vital that the Odessa-Nikolaev-Zaporozhia-Donetsk corridor remains pro-Regions. Fortunately it is, although there have been Maidan protests in Zaporozhiya AFAIK, a few thousand strong and mostly composed of local sympathizers. This is a concern, as in Odessa they found no local support and in Nikolayev they were barely even allowed to get off the train Smile

    3). The Zakarpatiya region is an interesting case. It's the only far-Western region where the regional administration hasn't been seized; in fact arriving Maidan activists from cities like Chernitsy, Ivano-Frankivsk have been chased away by patrolling locals. The region definately has a lot of support for the Regions party although I don't know if it's a majority. Honestly I don't know what to do - my suggestion would be to support them as much as possible; they will likely stay within a Western Ukraine but they should get backing from Moscow and push for autonomy there.

    4). Kiev is lost for Malorussia, that much is true. The hordes there are simply too great; add in the fact that the Ukrainian intelligentsia, middle-class, etc.. who are concentrated there - seem to be pro-Maidan for the most part. Certainly there are plenty of Regions sympathisers, but not enough to swing it.

    5). Aside from the regions you already went in depth into - there are a certain number of anti-Russians in Dneprpetrovsk and Kharkov; not a majority but expect problems there and also its not a certainty that all the districts of these regions will side with Malorussia.

    6). I don't see any need for Russia to annex Malorussia, nor to buy the Crimea from it. The Crimea is an anchor of stability, resting deep within the Black Sea. No need to move it. Besides which, it's economy is more integrated with the rest of Malorussia's, than Russia's proper.
    The best solution would be for Malorussia to enter the Customs Union/EurAsEC (with pending transformation into the Eurasian Economic Union), the CIS, the Union State of Belarus and Russia (while it still serves some function) and the CSTO; the last one to ward off any possible foreign aggression. Dialogue partner status in the SCO and co-operation with the BRICS would also be welcome.
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    Post  TheArmenian Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:41 am

    Thank you for posting Mutantsushi. Very informative. I voted for your post.
    As F-Python suggested, please introduce yourself. We look forward to hear more from you.

    Excellent remarks from you too Python.
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    Post  etaepsilonk Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:43 pm

    This whole partition talk kinda reminds me of:
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/46/Partition_of_the_Roman_Empire_in_395_AD.png

    As a result, the Eastern part managed to survive for another 1000 years.




    On other note, anyone know what Zhirinovskiy thinks about this situation?  Smile 
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    Post  Firebird Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:06 pm

    Sorry, but I think partitioning of the Ukraine isn't something that fills me with optimism.

    1)Its likely to cause a lot of inter-national hassles and grief. The map doesn't divide up cleanly and there would be many pockets of groups "in the wrong place".

    2)Its likely to lose the East Slavic bloc the vital defence line that is the Carpathians.
    Like Alaska, once its gone, its not exactly easy to get back.
    It could mean the difference between survival and oblivion for the Russian world at some pt in the future.

    3) Anti-Russianism is so prevalent in  some of the East Ukraine because of the ethnic cleansing that occurred when Ukrainian Nazis committed war crimes in the Gr Patriotic War.
    These actions invalidate any claims for self determination, full stop.

    4)Losing Kiev would be an immense blow to the E Slavic world. It is the cradle of Russian civilisation, a centre of the Russian church, intellectualism, commercial etc etc.

    The extremist W Ukrainians that live there, are there for one purpose alone. To incite hatred and cause shit. Kick the back to Lvov. Or better still, Poland/Germany/hell.

    5)We aren't really getting a clear view of the situation. Much of the protests are against the economic situation, the corruption (multiparty) etc etc. Only a small part is actually these nationalist Nazi maniacs.

    6)The Nazis and terrorists (thats all the extremists are) should be locked up. American will back them because America is a state terrorist. The EU(mostly!) doesn't want a Nazi led state in its midst.

    7)I cannot fathom Yanukovich. Most countries would crush the terrorist activity we are seeing in Kiev. Why the hell is he allowing it?
    Perhaps Russia needs to do more via intelligence, money for public relations, strategic control of the Ukraine's commerce and police/military.

    8)As said earlier in the thread, one of the problems is that there are too many nuts in the Ukraine. They dont understand how democracy works. They ban Russian in certain places. Then use extremist scum when someone else gets voted in democratically. The EU won't want to do business with maniacs like that. But Russia does have an adeptness with them, ironically.

    The sad part is, ALL Ukrainian citizens are suffering, largely down to a few terrorists and extremists. Lock them up, p[lay hardball with the US shitstirrers and the same kind in the EU. THEN Russia and the Ukraine can get back to business and development.
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    Post  etaepsilonk Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:33 pm

    Firebird wrote:Sorry, but I think partitioning of the Ukraine isn't something that fills me with optimism.


    Absolutely, any potential partition would be very unfortunate, and should be performed ONLY if no other option to contain radical elements is possible.
    For example, look at the parallels to the Roman empire. Before partitioning, it's leaders more or less already knew that empire was doomed, so this was the only way to salvage at least part of it.
    The similar is with Ukraine. If nazi (or "orange") elements take power, partitioning is pretty plausible.
    HOWEVER, if there's the slightest glimpse of hope for the situation to stabilise and for the cool heads to prevail, it's territorial integrity must be fought for with with tooth and nails.
    Hopefully, the second variant will happen. Best of luck to Ukraine and it's people  thumbsup
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    Post  Firebird Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:33 pm

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    Firebird wrote:Sorry, but I think partitioning of the Ukraine isn't something that fills me with optimism.


    Absolutely, any potential partition would be very unfortunate, and should be performed ONLY if no other option to contain radical elements is possible.
    For example, look at the parallels to the Roman empire. Before partitioning, it's leaders more or less already knew that empire was doomed, so this was the only way to salvage at least part of it.
    The similar is with Ukraine. If nazi (or "orange") elements take power, partitioning is pretty plausible.
    HOWEVER, if there's the slightest glimpse of hope for the situation to stabilise and for the cool heads to prevail, it's territorial integrity must be fought for with with tooth and nails.
    Hopefully, the second variant will happen. Best of luck to Ukraine and it's people  thumbsup
    Well I only became massively anti-partition when I actually sat down and thought about the strategic signif of the Carpathians. AND how the W Ukraine was ethnically cleansed of Russians. I mean these so called W Ukrainians aren't really Ukrainian. THey're the descendants of Poles and Germans, mixed with a bit of Russian. And then they decide they hate Russia. They are just lunatics.

    At the end of the day, Russia shouldn't negotiate with Nazis who attack its people. It should be firm with them. America cant really afford to meddle, least of all by supporting Nazis. And the EU, deep down knows its all trouble.

    Why doesn't Russia economically take control of the country. Its more important to Russia than anyone else. Do what everyone else does. Lock up the terrorists. Make their lives hell. Force them off to Poland/the EU. Give them some of the medicine they gave Russians.

    I think that once the economic and corruption problems (on numerous sides) are sorted, the Nazi rats will disappear or scurry away.
    I can't fathom it. Does Russia think the situation will develop militarily? Why is Yanokovich, for all this supposed "toughness" (and allegations of corruption) etc letting terrorists attack police and intimidate judges/politicians etc?

    THe EU has problems with Nazism. What does Greece do? Just lock them all up!
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    Post  GarryB Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:41 pm

    THe EU has problems with Nazism. What does Greece do? Just lock them all up!

    Good on Greece... in some baltic states they throw them a parade...  Embarassed 

    If the Ukraine does split... I can imagine the Orange party in power clamping down on protests and riots with the military... the west of course will not bleat about protesters rights... it will all be about saving the country from terrorists and traitors...  Rolling Eyes

    BTW FP and The Armenian are right... it is a forum rule that you read the rules and post an introduction before posting on this website. Too late now... no need to delete any existing posts, but please make the time to go to the rule and intros section... read the rules and post an intro thread for yourself ASAP.
    Thank you. 
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    Post  Regular Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:06 am

    Russia is doing very rational thing by staying out of this mess directly, why EU sends it's missionaries. Even in unfortunate event like partition Russia could maintain good relationship with Western Ukrainians. Radicals are radicals, but there is no hate for Russia as some news outlets try to portray.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:38 pm

    Regular wrote:Russia is doing very rational thing by staying out of this mess directly, why EU sends it's missionaries. Even in unfortunate event like partition Russia could maintain good relationship with Western Ukrainians. Radicals are radicals, but there is no hate for Russia as some news outlets try to portray.

    Then you dont know Western Ukrainians. Half my Family is western Ukrainian. The reason why there is a push from west is that it will either be good for USA to have a base in Ukraine to subdue Russia and as well, a huge population of Ukrainians that date back to the early 20th century whom are very anti Russian. These are former White Russians I guess you can call them but many of them are simoly people who supported anything.against Russia, even if it was the tsars.

    And yes, most people from lviv and west are polish decendants who have a hard on anger for Russia. These are the same people pushing the NATO agenda as well.

    Staying out of it is pointless actually. No gain and all loss. And ill give you example why:

    - even though Russia is staying out of it and said its Ukraines problem, they are still being blamed by Rasmussen and US/EU members of parliment.
    - Perception of Russia from outsiders are decreasing even more, with now other groups further boycotting Sochi games and the government. It will hit home in terms of tourism and hurt the olympocs, as well as possible future of trade
    - Russia could lose all of Ukraine and have now another enemy country at its borders with NATO base and missile defence system. Maybe eventually, if there is conflict, many Russians will be killed due to Ukraine. Look at Israel and how its surrounded by enemies. Does not bold well for them.
    - Politically, Russia will not be taken seriously (barely is anymore) thus can be seen as a pushover giving.authority to others to interfere with their own.
    - Eventually, western backed protests could end up (again) in Russia, and would be easier to do from Ukraine.

    Simple fact is, Russia lost this. US/EU are being glorified as heros for standing up against aggressive government of Ukraine (lol) and Russia is seen as an agressor. Already, many international forums are going crazy and saying how evil Russia is. They are destroying Russias image, and lets be real here, Russia is continuously begging for foreign investments and tourism, which could drop continuously the more they are demonized. As well, they could lose whatever buffer they have and could be more easily accessible for further push of disintegrating Russia.

    Call it tinfoil hat conspiracy, but woth the NATO push to Russias borders, with the missile defence system surrounding Russia, Funding of protests and unrest in countries mostly friendly towards Russia (Syria, Libya, Ukraine), and the hate speeches over Russia even though they did nothing wrong, is usually a bad sign. Surprised no one else has been able to put all this together and look at it as a bad thing.

    So whats next. Belarus and Kazakhstan? Once those are gone, Russia would have no one left so it would be prime for the picking and destroying.
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    Post  etaepsilonk Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:41 pm

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/over-20-cars-set-ablaze-in-kyiv-in-early-hours-of-jan-30-335880.html
    Nothing to see here folks, that's just a peaceful protesting  attack



    http://www.smh.com.au/world/russia-ramps-up-pressure-on-ukraine-20140130-hvafn.html
    This is interesting, looks like that loan does come with some preconditions, maybe Ukraine has to de-value it's currency? Considering budget shortages, that would be pretty logical.
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    Post  Regular Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:14 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Regular wrote:Russia is doing very rational thing by staying out of this mess directly, why EU sends it's missionaries. Even in unfortunate event like partition Russia could maintain good relationship with Western Ukrainians. Radicals are radicals, but there is no hate for Russia as some news outlets try to portray.

    Then you dont know Western Ukrainians. Half my Family is western Ukrainian. The reason why there is a push from west is that it will either be good for USA to have a base in Ukraine to subdue Russia and as well, a huge population of Ukrainians that date back to the early 20th century whom are very anti Russian. These are former White Russians I guess you can call them but many of them are simoly people who supported anything.against Russia, even if it was the tsars.

    And yes, most people from lviv and west are polish decendants who have a hard on anger for Russia. These are the same people pushing the NATO agenda as well.

    Staying out of it is pointless actually. No gain and all loss. And ill give you example why:

    - even though Russia is staying out of it and said its Ukraines problem, they are still being blamed by Rasmussen and US/EU members of parliment.
    - Perception of Russia from outsiders are decreasing even more, with now other groups further boycotting Sochi games and the government. It will hit home in terms of tourism and hurt the olympocs, as well as possible future of trade
    - Russia could lose all of Ukraine and have now another enemy country at its borders with NATO base and missile defence system. Maybe eventually, if there is conflict, many Russians will be killed due to Ukraine. Look at Israel and how its surrounded by enemies. Does not bold well for them.
    - Politically, Russia will not be taken seriously (barely is anymore) thus can be seen as a pushover giving.authority to others to interfere with their own.
    - Eventually, western backed protests could end up (again) in Russia, and would be easier to do from Ukraine.

    Simple fact is, Russia lost this. US/EU are being glorified as heros for standing up against aggressive government of Ukraine (lol) and Russia is seen as an agressor. Already, many international forums are going crazy and saying how evil Russia is. They are destroying Russias image, and lets be real here, Russia is continuously begging for foreign investments and tourism, which could drop continuously the more they are demonized. As well, they could lose whatever buffer they have and could be more easily accessible for further push of disintegrating Russia.

    Call it tinfoil hat conspiracy, but woth the NATO push to Russias borders, with the missile defence system surrounding Russia, Funding of protests and unrest in countries mostly friendly towards Russia (Syria, Libya, Ukraine), and the hate speeches over Russia even though they did nothing wrong, is usually a bad sign. Surprised no one else has been able to put all this together and look at it as a bad thing.

    So whats next. Belarus and Kazakhstan? Once those are gone, Russia would have no one left so it would be prime for the picking and destroying.

    I agree with You about expansionism, it's not even hidden in their agenda. It's pretty obvious especially from where I am from.
    But I don't agree with strong anti Russian feelings. My family used to spend summers in Ukraine, not enough time to learn Ukrainian so we spoke Russian even in the western part. Only my father could speak Ukrainian as he is good with Polish too. Personally I think that In western parts there are more hatred for Jews and Poles.
    Even today Ukrainian radicals attacked Polish tourist bus, Pravii sector wants to retake Polish land and etc. While Russians in Ukraine don't get harassed
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    Post  zino Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:04 pm

    Ashton: EU, US working on aid plan for Ukraine
    http://en.itar-tass.com/world/717349

    FM: Ukraine, EU to discuss financial aid to Kiev
    http://en.itar-tass.com/world/717416

    and finally, for the (sad)lulz:
    EU to convince Moscow that association deal with Ukraine is not against Russia
    http://en.itar-tass.com/world/717417

    USA can print billions without pain. As usual, I'm not optimistic about the outcome.
    KomissarBojanchev
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    Post  KomissarBojanchev Tue Feb 04, 2014 1:21 am

    The communist POV on the situation in Ukraine, has some pretty eye-opening statistics and the statements are quite true IMO
    http://octbol.livejournal.com/119619.html
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    Post  Regular Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:17 am

    That Jesus Bulatov guy is in my country. Lithuanian taxpayers are helping this utter farce. Wow what an idiotic move by our mentally handicapped gov!
    Guess what he has his ear back on. Now he has black eyes and his injuries are questionable. Sure, hands where pierced but not by the nails, they always leave ripped exit wound and he has them clean like done by surgical instrument and etc etc. Few people believe this sh.t. Maybe we should crucify him for real just to hear the truth.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:26 am

    This is the ancient concept of respect.
    If Russians instead of letting Lithuania break free had simply annihilate the f@@ing place like EVERYBODY else would have done nobody would had dare to undermine them again.
    Instead they followed this stupid leftist notion of pacifism and now all this joke countries turn back to huge Russia harassing!!
    Have never seen a more ludicrous situation in my life. Indeed, if you use violence when time is due, you avoid much more bloodshed at the end of the day.
    Of course never is too late...
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    Post  Viktor Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:36 am

    Game is over ...

    - US controls EU
    - EU acts like US orders are its own ideas
    - EU does lousy job for the US and US mad for it
    - Klitcko a puppy that will wanish from the scene once he "does his job" because he is not up to the job (meaning stupid)
    - Maiden uprising - all staged
    - Media - lying propaganda bitches as allways

    Ukraine crisis: Leaked phone call embarrasses US

     Very Happy someone Very Happy  cough cough intercepted US communications and published the video online
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    Post  Regular Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:54 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:This is the ancient concept of respect.
    If Russians instead of letting Lithuania break free had simply annihilate the f@@ing place like EVERYBODY else would have done nobody would had dare to undermine them again.
    Instead they followed this stupid leftist notion of pacifism and now all this joke countries turn back to huge Russia harassing!!
    Have never seen a more ludicrous situation in my life. Indeed, if you use violence when time is due, you avoid much more bloodshed at the end of the day.
    Of course never is too late...

    Annihilate for what exactly? Very Happy For crappy regional politics? Russia is not most competent country in this regards as well. And it's not that they let Lithuania easily breakout, it wasn't euromaidan crap, we expected worse not better life and it was awful in first years under blockade. Look at Chechnya when they decided to breakout, does their method look better?
    In the end of the day Russia is no 1 importer of our goods, I only welcome more collaboration. We sell better quality products than what we make for our own market and Russians are familiar with them from Soviet times.

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