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    Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:28 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:http://www.donbass-insider.com/2020/11/20/sale-motor-sich-to-china-ukraine-to-lose-3-5-billion-to-us/

    China is suing the Ukraine for the losses due to delays and lack of motor sich sales, and they are asking 3.5 billions US dollars!

    The Ukraine is willing to pay $3.50 lol1


    Well in the article they are mentioning

    The law firms hired by the Chinese are considered to be the best in the field of arbitration and law. Their services are very expensive and the losing party will have to pay their fees. And considering the law firms involved, we are talking about several million dollars, which will be added to the 3.5 billion dollars that Ukraine is sure to have to pay, as it has no chance of winning the dispute against the investors.

    Indeed, Ukraine had no legal grounds to prevent investors from taking possession of their property, as Motor Sich is a private company that can dispose of its shares as it wants.

    To put it plainly, the SBU acted completely illegally, since Ukrainian laws prohibit the state from interfering in the affairs of private companies.


    And in view of Ukraine’s catastrophic financial situation, it is hard to see how Kiev is going to find enough money to reimburse Chinese investors for their losses. Especially since Ukraine will not be able to ignore the verdict of the international arbitration, as this would put it in the position of a rogue state, leading to its economic and political isolation and totally cutting off access to any Western investment and loans. Without money from the West, Ukraine will cease to exist.

    Kiev will therefore surely have to beg for a new IMF loan to repay this new debt. A new loan for which it will be necessary to pay the interests, but also the counterpart which will hurt the whole Ukrainian population. There is no doubt that the IMF will once again demand increases in the tariffs for communal services (gas, electricity), or another law like the one authorising the sale of agricultural land, in order to finish pillaging Ukraine so that it can pay back China.


    According to it, the Chinese have good chances of winning, and that would deprive the Ukrainians either of a lot of money or completely to the access to the only remaining available market (for them).

    Concerning the part that I marked in bold, I do not know whether it is true or not... in a normal country the sale of controlling shares of strategic companies should be prohibited but the Ukraine is not a functioning entity.
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS on Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:37 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:According to it, the Chinese have good chances of winning,  and that would deprive the Ukrainians either of a lot of money or completely to the access to the only remaining available market (for them).

    Concerning the part that I marked in bold, I do not know  whether it is true or not... in a  normal country the sale of controlling shares of strategic companies should be prohibited   but the Ukraine is not a functioning entity.

    Where would be the arbitration? Would a Western court rule in favour of China and against their own interests in Ukraine? We have seen them ordering Gazprom to pay to Ukraine because they are poor instead of based on any legal grounds, I don't see why this time over it should be different...

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:33 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:According to it, the Chinese have good chances of winning,  and that would deprive the Ukrainians either of a lot of money or completely to the access to the only remaining available market (for them).

    Concerning the part that I marked in bold, I do not know  whether it is true or not... in a  normal country the sale of controlling shares of strategic companies should be prohibited   but the Ukraine is not a functioning entity.

    Where would be the arbitration? Would a Western court rule in favour of China and against their own interests in Ukraine? We have seen them ordering Gazprom to pay to Ukraine because they are poor instead of based on any legal grounds, I don't see why this time over it should be different...
    I was not able to understand this from the article (and neither from other articles that ineas reading). It mentioned only international arbitration court. But yes we know that they are also not that reliable. Anyway if is something where US has influence, it could also be interesting to see what happens if Biden officially wins (as he has a lot of interests and influence in the Ukraine and he is said to have a soft view of Chinese interests)...

    And finally, I do not like how the ukraine is managing all of this, but China has shown to have a quite "predatory" behaviour and also the Chinese investors sounded also a bit shady...

    Well Russia is not losing too much anyway. It might have been useful a decade ago, especially to produce additional D18T engines, but only for that. Russia dependency on motor sich for the production of helicopter engine is almost finished (possibly they were still getting some D-136 for the Mi-26, as the PD12V has not yet been certified), and the D18T is anyway an outdated engine.

    Now they have (or they'll have in the next 4 years a modern alternative for each of the products previously supplied by motor sich.

    The "funny" thing is that a few years ago (before 2014 anyway) someone was trying to push for a motor sich made combustion chamber in the PD14... luckily this interference did not bear fruits.

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:42 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:According to it, the Chinese have good chances of winning,  and that would deprive the Ukrainians either of a lot of money or completely to the access to the only remaining available market (for them).

    Concerning the part that I marked in bold, I do not know  whether it is true or not... in a  normal country the sale of controlling shares of strategic companies should be prohibited   but the Ukraine is not a functioning entity.

    Where would be the arbitration? Would a Western court rule in favour of China and against their own interests in Ukraine? We have seen them ordering Gazprom to pay to Ukraine because they are poor instead of based on any legal grounds, I don't see why this time over it should be different...

    But you act like the arbitration courts are the only avenue of pursuit here. China could just as easily do what Uncle Sham does...by attacking their foreign accounts. China could with relative ease find out where some top Banderastani (such as Kolomoysky or Poroshenko) hides their money, and threaten the banks that hold their accounts. China could say "You harbor these Bandera-Clowns money than it's going to be a problem" and demand that these Banderastani accounts be frozen, or have their whole banking franchises be completely kicked out of the Chinese market!

    The threat of losing the Chinese market will force peoples hands, and grease the wheels to make things happen and change the current situation.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:37 pm

    From OT posts on Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA):


    Ukraine and Turkey together are not able to produce an airplane. They can maybe produce the fuselage and the wings. That is all. Motor sich is not able to produce modern engines, and soon there is the risk it will disappear completely.
    unless there's embargo/sanctions on Ukraine/Turkey/Pakistan on those particular engines & parts, that project has a chance of going forward. Some sanctions can be circumvented. They may get only of 2 or a mix of 2/4 engine planes, so less engines will be needed.  Hell, they could even take A-400M engines & adopt them for their An-70/77!
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:34 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:

    From OT posts on Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA):




    Ukraine and Turkey together are not able to produce an airplane. They can maybe produce the fuselage and the wings. That is all. Motor sich is not able to produce modern engines, and soon there is the risk it will disappear completely.
    unless there's embargo/sanctions on Ukraine/Turkey/Pakistan on those particular engines & parts, that project has a chance of going forward. Some sanctions can be circumvented. They may get only of 2 or a mix of 2/4 engine planes, so less engines will be needed.  Hell, they could even take A-400M engines & adopt them for their An-70/77!

    The TP400M, the engine of the A400M, is made by a joint venture ot Rolls Royce (UK), Snecma (France), ITP (Spain, but owned by Rolls-Royce), MTU aero engine (Germany) and Avio (Italy, but owned by GE). Basically all of these countries have a stake in (or cooperate with) Airbus. Do you believe those nations would allow to facilitate the creation of a concurrent to their A400M?   No way.

    It is not just a matter of sanctions. Turkey was negotiating acquiring A400M, correct?
    That means that selling the engine to produce an alternative to the A400M is not in their interest, as that engine is currently the most powerful turboprop currently in service outside Russia.
    ordering parts in a shop
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:55 am

    That means that selling the engine to produce an alternative to the A400M is not in their interest, ..
    they can take the engines of their A-400Ms, if need be. Why buy other parts & support for them if cheaper parts & support can be had for An-77/188s which can lift 10-13Ts more?


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:45 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:36 am

    Because taking the engines out of their A-400Ms means instead of 10 working A-400M transport planes plus the future promise that someday maybe the Ukraine might not screw them over and steal the money they invested in a new aircraft design they don't even have functional engines for, they will have 10 A-400M aircraft that don't work because their engines were taken out and handed over to the Ukraine to make a replacement aircraft design they only ever see drawings of... while that Ukrainian company they gave the engines to have signed agreements with EU countries that use the A-400M for cheap spare parts for their engines...

    Can you work out what is happening?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:20 pm

    They most probably also have spare engines & can take out 1 A400M at a time, not all at once, as those An-77s r produced. 
    A 2 engine smaller variant will need 2x less engines. So, 9 400Ms Turkey has +1 to be delivered=40 engines, enough for 10/5 An-77s or/& 20/10 twin engine types. The mix could be different from that, like 3/4 An-77s & 14/12 twin engine types.
    There will be 12 surplus A-400Ms offered for sale in the next few years, & some, if not all, could be bought by Turkey, to be used &/ for parts. 12x4=48 more engines, enough for 22 An-77s or 48 twin engine types if the Turks stop using their all A-400Ms.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:07 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They most probably also have spare engines & can take out 1 A400M at a time, not all at once, as those An-77s r produced. 
    A 2 engine smaller variant will need 2x less engines. So, 9 400Ms Turkey has +1 to be delivered=40 engines, enough for 10/5 An-77s or/& 20/10 twin engine types. The mix could be different from that, like 3/4 An-77s & 14/12 twin engine types.
    There will be 12 surplus A-400Ms offered for sale in the next few years, & some, if not all, could be bought by Turkey, to be used &/ for parts. 12x4=48 more engines, enough for 22 An-77s or 48 twin engine types if the Turks stop using their all A-400Ms.


    Not even starting to discuss the lack of of feasibility of this because also spare parts would not be ever provided, and they would also forget any other deal with the EU if they do that, there are a couple of considerations that make this not possible.


    The engine control system and nacelle is paired with an aircraft, normally. That means that those will need to be redesigned at least. In addition there are several aerodynamic and CoG calculation, plus safety rules to be followed thst would impede this.  They cannot put an engine thought for another aircraft,  without support of the Original Equipment Manufacturer, and use it in a production airplane. It would not be allowed to fly anywhere, except for experimental flights.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:25 pm

    I don't expect them to give up that easily- & I hope they'll find a way to make An-77/188 at least partial success. Turkey may get those Antonov engineers to make another Y-20, not necessarily with the same looks & specs.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:22 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They most probably also have spare engines & can take out 1 A400M at a time, not all at once, as those An-77s r produced. 
    A 2 engine smaller variant will need 2x less engines. So, 9 400Ms Turkey has +1 to be delivered=40 engines, enough for 10/5 An-77s or/& 20/10 twin engine types. The mix could be different from that, like 3/4 An-77s & 14/12 twin engine types.
    There will be 12 surplus A-400Ms offered for sale in the next few years, & some, if not all, could be bought by Turkey, to be used &/ for parts. 12x4=48 more engines, enough for 22 An-77s or 48 twin engine types if the Turks stop using their all A-400Ms.

    Those engines may well have end user certificates that prohibit resale. Anyway why would Turkey scrap perfectly good A400M just to give/sell the engines to Ukraine?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Yesterday at 12:58 am

    They can put them in storage or sell them if the An-77/188 program succeeds.
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    Post  GarryB Yesterday at 3:22 am

    They most probably also have spare engines & can take out 1 A400M at a time, not all at once, as those An-77s r produced.

    You are missing a few fundamental key points that are quite important to this discussion.

    Antonov does not make planes any more. Motor Sich doesn't make engines any more and looking at the legal action by the Chinese, they are going to have to sell off any viable assets they still might have to pay back money that has likely been stolen by management... essentially the scam was... we are Antonov we designed all the Antonov planes, we own the rights, we don't need Russia or anyone else... give us some money and we can finish final development work on some amazing planes that will work out super cheap because all the hard slog development work was paid for by Russia... so you will get the best plane for a cheap price and we can keep it flying because we now make all the parts.

    This will be the same sort of thing they will be telling France and Turkey and any other country that will listen... but any money you hand over will disappear like a cup of water down a storm drain... those companies have probably already had their best engineers head hunted from the west and the east... they wont buy Ukrainian aircraft but they will pinch their experts and any hardware they can swipe...

    The totally pathetic thing is that Turkey does not have a lot of money to throw away on useless ideas... right now they have 9 working transports with one more on the way and presumably a spare parts pool to keep them running for a period of time.... if they start stripping them of engines and handing them over to the Ukraine then they will have less usable planes than they have now and if they weren't being sanctioned, they would start to get sanctioned for handing over EU engine technology to the Ukraine.

    For Turkey the Ukraine is not even nearly an option... a Chinese plane or even Russian plane makes rather more sense, would likely be available faster and will be much cheaper and much more capable.

    And when the An-77/188 programme remains a paper project they have 10 otherwise good aircraft with no engines so they can't use them and all sorts of promises from Antonov and Motor Sich... and those 10 planes were not cheap but will be considered a bargain compared with anything Antonov could possibly come up with these days.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Yesterday at 4:22 pm

    They could set up An-77/188 airframe production in Turkey, no need to send stripped engines to Ukraine.  Qatar can give/loan them $Bs for that. China is building Y-20s even though they never build such planes before.
    Russia needs to maintain good relations with Turkey & could supply them engines as well.
    Antonov still has the means to make planes, so it may also produce civ. An-77 variants & could import Russian-made engines for them. later those planes may be used in dual/special roles & modified accordingly.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:00 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Yesterday at 5:43 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They could set up An-77/188 airframe production in Turkey, no need to send stripped engines to Ukraine.  Qatar can give/loan them $Bs for that...

    Get a load of this guy...

    An-77? Production in Turkey? Qatar loans?

    Hilarious lol1



    Tsavo Lion wrote:...Antonov still has the means to make planes, ....

    Antonov makes wood stoves

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Yesterday at 9:26 pm




    MiddleEastWatch
    @MiddleEastWatc1
    ·
    18 Nov
    Ukrainian Defense Review:
    Turkish company Baykar and Ukraine’s military-industrial base has geared-up to co-produce an unmanned fighter jet with a total weight of some 5.5 tons with at least one ton of combat payload.

    The new unmanned fighter is expected to have a top speed of 900 kilometers per hour, and the ability to climb above 12 kilometers (about 40,000 ft).
    The new unmanned fighter will most likely use the Ukrainian Ivachenko-Progress’s AI-25TLT turbofan engine.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Yesterday at 9:51 pm

    JohninMK wrote:


    MiddleEastWatch
    @MiddleEastWatc1
    ·
    18 Nov
    Ukrainian Defense Review:
    Turkish company Baykar and Ukraine’s military-industrial base has geared-up to co-produce an unmanned fighter jet with a total weight of some 5.5 tons with at least one ton of combat payload.

    The new unmanned fighter is expected to have a top speed of 900 kilometers per hour, and the ability to climb above 12 kilometers (about 40,000 ft).
    The new unmanned fighter will most likely use the Ukrainian Ivachenko-Progress’s AI-25TLT turbofan engine.

    Banderastan still has some leftovers to share. When those dry up, it will be the utter end of their ambitions.

    BTW, Ivachenko-Progress does not actually build anything it was a design bureau during the USSR period. Motor-Sich actually manufactured
    most of its designs.



    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Yesterday at 9:59 pm

    Tsavo, I commented last night on the russian transport fleet thread (as you continue to write about Antonov, the ukraine and Turkey also there)

    I'll paste here an extract of it.
    (By the way probably any reference to Antonov, Turkey or Chinese airplanes there should also be moved elsewhere, as it is not of interest for the Russian air force)
    Antonov planes (even those assembled in Kiev or Kharkov) used to have about 50% of the parts and systems produced in Russia. Turkey cannot help with those. They can of course try to have suppliers from the EU, US or China design and provide systems for it, but it is not anymore an independent solution... actually a potential buyer will have to be even more wary, as there are many more nations that could hamper the sale...

    If they buy from Russia or China at least there are no other countries involved.


    This is the same reason why the SAAB gripen is horrible as alternative to the f16.
    Even if it was a better performing plane, most of the parts are made outside sweden (and the engines are a licenced production ( with some modifications) of a F18 engine).

    Here you can find the full list of  subcontractors for SAAB Gripen.

    https://www.airframer.com/aircraft_detail.html?model=JAS_39_Gripen#18

    The vast majority of them are not in Sweden, but in US, UK, France or some other European countries.  Each one of them could hamper a sale, if the potential customer is in their blacklist. In the case of Turkey, it is already in not so good relationship with france and some other EU countries.

    At least when you buy from the US, if they authorize the sale and there are foreign components,  their lapdogs will have to comply with their master. Furthermore, if you buy enough weapons from the US you can mass murder civilians in a neighbouring country, assassinate journalists in an embassy and much more without anyone calling you a dictator.


    Concerning the new project for the larger drone, yes Turkey is perfectly able to work as an integrator. We know that from the previous drone projects.


    The Ukraine, if they are lucky, could provide a 60 years old jet engine and maybe they will manufacture some structural parts.

    However most of the parts for the other turkish drones were sourced from foreign countries.
    There was already a case recently in which Canada will stop supplying targeting cameras for the drones as those were used in the navgorno kharabak conflict.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/azerbaijan-front-line/turkish-defense-industry-moving-on-despite-embargoes/1997685#

    In this case turkish industries already announced that they will be able to design and produce alternative parts, but will their industry be as resilient as the russian one in the case of sanctions?

    There are many components used in aircrafts and UAVs that have never been designed or produced in Turkey (at least until now)

    Should they ever receive sanctions Russian or iranian style, will they be able to start producing everything on their own?
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    Post  Isos Yesterday at 10:10 pm

    They can't produce TB2 alone without the help of half the world and they talk about a jet drone.

    That's some high level of optimism. Or drug. Who knows. lol1
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    Post  GarryB Today at 9:57 am

    They can put them in storage or sell them if the An-77/188 program succeeds.

    Put working perfectly good transport aircraft into storage and hand their engines over to the Ukraine in the hope that they might get a different aircraft to the point where it could go into production... they just need to overcome the problem of not having any engines at all.

    You can't set up aircraft production based on ten sets of borrowed engines... even if the aircraft you are making only uses two engines instead of four that means you are setting up production for 20 planes... they will be the most expensive aircraft ever made... building factories and setting up tooling alone would be enormously expensive... the An-77/188 programme does not exist if it needs A-400M engines.

    They could set up An-77/188 airframe production in Turkey, no need to send stripped engines to Ukraine.

    Why would the Ukraine agree to produce their plane in Turkey.... more importantly why would Turkey piss away money to make something it already has... 10 transport planes.

    Qatar can give/loan them $Bs for that.

    If Qatar gives them billions of dollars they would be stupid to piss it away making factories to build inferior transport planes to the ones they have in service... the A-400M is expensive but these new planes will be much worse because you wont have any new engines for more.

    China is building Y-20s even though they never build such planes before.

    They have the money and the requirement for more than 10 aircraft. The cost of these aircraft will be a fraction of anything Turkey and the Ukraine could possibly come up with.

    Russia needs to maintain good relations with Turkey & could supply them engines as well.

    Russia wont maintain good relations with Turkey letting them piss away billions of dollars on dodgy replacement aircraft when they already have perfectly good aircraft in service.

    Russia could sell them the new engines... with Il-476s wrapped around them likely for less than the cost of building factories to make Ukrainian vapourware.

    Antonov still has the means to make planes, so it may also produce civ. An-77 variants & could import Russian-made engines for them. later those planes may be used in dual/special roles & modified accordingly.

    The Kiev government wont let them buy Russian engines... they have made that clear. If the Chinese are not selling hundreds of Y-20s and the Russians are not selling thousands of Il-476s why do you think this crap Ukrainian plane is going to sell any at all?

    (By the way probably any reference to Antonov, Turkey or Chinese airplanes there should also be moved elsewhere, as it is not of interest for the Russian air force)

    Yes... will look in to that...

    They can of course try to have suppliers from the EU, US or China design and provide systems for it, but it is not anymore an independent solution... actually a potential buyer will have to be even more wary, as there are many more nations that could hamper the sale...

    Not to mention those foreign parts will massively drive up the price for the final product too.... and make it a sanctions nightmare.

    The only countries that could afford such an aircraft are probably the current operators of A-400Ms...


    Should they ever receive sanctions Russian or iranian style, will they be able to start producing everything on their own?

    Which ironically makes Russian parts appealing for Turkish projects... but not with the Ukraine...

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Today at 12:45 pm

    By the way, if there are additional discussions on the An70 or its proposed derivative, could we put them in a dedicated thread like this one (unused since 2015)?

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t876p100-an-70-program

    I posted recently something about a claim the Ukraine was doing about an UAV program in this thread (ukrainian aviation industry), but it was ignored as it was quickly submerged by all the posts about the "incumbent" an70 production by the Ukraine and Turkey.

    To close the issue. I liked the idea based on the an70 program. If Russia would have been able to fully acquire the design and production rights for it, update and modify the design according to its needs and replace the foreign produced parts, it could have become a useful aircraft, operating in its own niche alongside Il276, il76 and il106.

    Unfortunately that was not possible.

    I am sure that Russia (e.g. ilyushin and Tupulev) will take into account some of the design solutions introduced by the An70 in their future transport aircrafts.

    Hopefully the name and reputation of the company created by the muskovite Oleg Antonov will be salvaged after ukrobonprom will have finished its destruction process.

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