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    Russia - USA Relations

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:28 am

    UK provided Ukraine with 2000 NLAW missiles. These can penetrate 600mm of RHA but have a max range of only 600m. Does not seem like a very useful weapon. Not sure what tanks Russia has on the border and if the Donbass republics have any active protection systems on their tanks.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:24 am

    mnztr wrote:UK provided Ukraine with 2000 NLAW missiles. These can penetrate 600mm of RHA but have a max range of only 600m. Does not seem like a very useful weapon. Not sure what tanks Russia has on the border and if the Donbass republics have any active protection systems on their tanks.

    If we would stick to the producer's declarations, it would be rather 500mm, and up to 800m against stationary targets.
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    Post  andalusia Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:46 am

    I just found this article stating that their was no promise of NATO not enlarging and Gorbachev says no; I would like an analysis of this article.  

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/
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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:14 am

    andalusia wrote:I just found this article stating that their was no promise of NATO not enlarging and Gorbachev says no; I would like an analysis of this article.  

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

    Any claim of such is a revision lie. There were two promises made. Mercouris has covered this. I recall one such promise at the time it was
    made.
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    Post  owais.usmani Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:38 am

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-companies-push-biden-congress-caution-russia-sanctions-2022-01-26/

    WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden has threatened to impose devastating sanctions on Russia if leader Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, but some big companies and business groups are pushing the White House and lawmakers to be cautious.

    A trade group representing Chevron, General Electric and other big U.S. corporations that do business in Russia is asking the White House to consider allowing companies to fulfill commitments and to weigh exempting products as it crafts any sanctions. At the same time, big energy companies are pushing Congress to limit their scope and time frame.

    The Biden administration and Congress need to "get the details right in case they must follow through on the threat of sanctions," Jake Colvin, president of The National Foreign Trade Council, told Reuters Monday.

    "Those details should include consideration of safe harbors or wind-down periods to enable companies to fulfill existing contracts and obligations, as well as carve-outs for lifesaving medicines and other humanitarian considerations consistent with longstanding U.S. policy," Colvin said.

    Energy companies have also reached out directly to U.S. lawmakers to press for a "cool down" or "wind down" period so their assets are not seized if they are unable to fulfill business agreements in Russia, a congressional aide told Reuters.

    The American Petroleum Institute, the largest U.S. lobbying organization for oil and gas drillers, has discussed sanctions on Russia with congressional offices. "Sanctions should be as targeted as possible in order to limit potential harm to the competitiveness of U.S. companies," an API spokesperson said.

    Export sanctions are typically phased in, giving companies time to wind down their existing business, or ensure delivery arrivals, said William Reinsch, a former senior U.S. Commerce Department official.

    But in this case, the sanctions are likely to be applied suddenly, in the middle of a crisis, making a "wind down" period more difficult to secure, he said.

    The U.S. Treasury in the past has provided some mitigation measures on financial sanctions, such as granting licenses protecting senders of humanitarian aid and personal remittance flows to Afghanistan despite sanctions against the ruling Taliban.

    A U.S. Treasury official declined to comment on any such measures regarding potential sanctions against Russia, but added: "We are prepared to deliver severe costs to the Russian economy while minimizing unwanted spillover."

    Oil companies felt the aftermath of the U.S. sanctions on some of Russia's more expensive drilling operations for years after Putin invaded Crimea in 2014.

    The measures forced Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) out of Russia's Arctic and ended the company's collaboration with Russian state oil company Rosneft (ROSN.MM), with which it signed a $3.2 billion deal in 2011 to develop the region.

    Exxon's argued the sanctions, which slowed work on a major discovery in the Kara Sea above the Arctic Circle, unfairly penalized U.S. companies while allowing foreign companies to operate in the country, one of the world's largest oil producers.

    The 2014 sanctions hit the easiest targets in Russia's high-tech exploration oil and gas projects in the Arctic, Siberian shale and deep sea.

    New sanctions could be broader, but also tricky to pull off without damage to Western companies.

    One possible "safe harbor" measure could protect companies from legal liability for sanctions violations if certain conditions were met, said Reinsch, such as showing that a shipment went to the sanctioned country without permission, perhaps from a third country.

    Exxon did not immediately respond to a request for comment about any lobbying it is doing on the potential Russia sanctions.

    A spokesman for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the largest lobbying group for American business, declined to comment on the topic.

    U.S. goods and services trade with Russia totaled an estimated $34.9 billion in 2019, according to the U.S. Trade Representative's office.
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    Post  George1 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:06 pm

    US ambassador gives Russian Foreign Ministry US response to Russian security proposals

    The meeting was requested by the US ambassador, who spent slightly more than a half hour inside the Foreign Ministry building

    MOSCOW, January 26. /TASS/. U.S. ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan on Wednesday delivered Washington’s written response to Russian proposals for security guarantees to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko.

    "The head of the US diplomatic mission delivered a written response from the US administration to the draft bilateral agreement on security guarantees that was earlier proposed by the Russian side," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

    The meeting was requested by the US ambassador, who spent slightly more than a half hour inside the Foreign Ministry building.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the State Duma earlier on Wednesday that Russia won’t publish a US response on security guarantees, if asked, but will disclose the general meaning of the replies.

    On December 17 last year, the Russian Foreign Ministry published draft agreements on security guarantees addressed to the US and NATO, which say NATO won’t expand eastward, deny membership to Ukraine and limit deployment of serious offensive weapons, including nuclear ones.

    https://tass.com/politics/1393605
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    Post  George1 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:44 pm

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has confirmed that Moscow has received a written response from the US to its requests for assurances over NATO expansion, expressing disappointment over the lack of concessions.

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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:55 pm

    The US is treating the Russian demands as a joke. It is also casting them as some Ukraine invasion problem and not
    NATzO's threat to Russia with nuclear missiles.

    After this farce, Russia needs to get serious about nuclear weapons. No more START and any other limitation. The
    endless drivel from NATzO about fighting a conventional war on Russia clearly shows that NATzO is not taking Russia's
    nuclear capability seriously.

    Russia must deploy Posiedon nuclear drones off the coasts of the USA.

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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:51 pm

    kvs wrote:The US is treating the Russian demands as a joke.   It is also casting them as some Ukraine invasion problem and not
    NATzO's threat to Russia with nuclear missiles.

    After this farce, Russia needs to get serious about nuclear weapons.   No more START and any other limitation.   The
    endless drivel from NATzO about fighting a conventional war on Russia clearly shows that NATzO is not taking Russia's
    nuclear capability seriously.  

    Russia must deploy Posiedon nuclear drones off the coasts of the USA.  


    I think russias plans for South America is the right move. If they can help modernize and integrate their AD and radar network to work with russias, at this point, US will screech loud.

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    Post  Backman Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:02 pm

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/27-russian-diplomats-expelled-us-embassy-laments-very-bitter-event

    More Russian diplomats expelled. Why is the Russian FM whinging about it ? Usually they swiftly retaliate. They better retaliate soon. Just break off relations.

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    Post  GarryB Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:46 am


    A trade group representing Chevron, General Electric and other big U.S. corporations that do business in Russia is asking the White House to consider allowing companies to fulfill commitments and to weigh exempting products as it crafts any sanctions. At the same time, big energy companies are pushing Congress to limit their scope and time frame.

    Which is a go to list of things for Russia to do if the US imposes sanctions... anything exempted from the US sanctions can be part of the Russian response because it is obviously something they care about.

    "Those details should include consideration of safe harbors or wind-down periods to enable companies to fulfill existing contracts and obligations, as well as carve-outs for lifesaving medicines and other humanitarian considerations consistent with longstanding U.S. policy," Colvin said.

    The US does not have humanitarian considerations...

    Energy companies have also reached out directly to U.S. lawmakers to press for a "cool down" or "wind down" period so their assets are not seized if they are unable to fulfill business agreements in Russia, a congressional aide told Reuters.

    Russia can seize assets anyway...

    Oil companies felt the aftermath of the U.S. sanctions on some of Russia's more expensive drilling operations for years after Putin invaded Crimea in 2014.

    That cost is ongoing because they had to develop their own replacement technologies to get the job done so now they don't need those western companies any more.

    U.S. goods and services trade with Russia totaled an estimated $34.9 billion in 2019, according to the U.S. Trade Representative's office.

    Hopefully stupid US sanctions can reduce that by half maybe... a Russian eye pad and eye phone would be interesting...

    No more START and any other limitation.

    Keep START, just start building medium and intermediate range nuclear missiles of the cruise and semi ballistic types which are not bound by START.

    What Russia should really be doing is looking at who has the money in the US that is controlling the US government and hit them financially... that is what will get results.

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    Post  kvs Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:13 am

    "Putin invaded Crimea".

    Sums up the level of propaganda drivel in the NATzO mass media. Let's not get little details such as no single Russian soldier crossing the border
    of Crimea and the total number of Russian forces out of Sevastopol being less than 13,000 which is not enough to pacify 2.5 million people.
    And 64% of those 2.5 million are ethnic Russians who have always wanted to return Crimea to Russia. For some reason the remaining 36%
    did not flee this "invasion". During invasions and conquests there are typically large numbers of refugees.

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    Post  calripson Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:17 am

    kvs wrote:"Putin invaded Crimea".

    Sums up the level of propaganda drivel in the NATzO mass media.   Let's not get little details such as no single Russian soldier crossing the border
    of Crimea and the total number of Russian forces out of Sevastopol being less than 13,000 which is not enough to pacify 2.5 million people.
    And 64% of those 2.5 million are ethnic Russians who have always wanted to return Crimea to Russia.   For some reason the remaining 36%
    did not flee this "invasion".   During invasions and conquests there are typically large numbers of refugees.


    Where do you get the 64% number from? The Ukrainian government? More like 85%.
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    Post  mnztr Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:10 am

    On the one hand the US claims that Russia would be crippled without gas sales to Europe, then on the other hand it claims Putin is weaponizing gas by selling Europe less gas then they can to get NS2 certified. Honestly **** Europe. Russia should offer Ukraine some carrot and stick. Complete Minsk accords = cheaper gas and security agreement with Russia. Join NATO = freeze in the dark and FU. But the fact is, Russia only needs an agreement with some NATO states to keep Ukraine out. That could be Turkey, Hungary, or Germany and France. In return for an agreement from France and Germany, Russia can grant Ukraine security assurances and even a trade agreement (but nothing strategic of course) and even foreign investment.

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    Post  kvs Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:12 am

    calripson wrote:
    kvs wrote:"Putin invaded Crimea".

    Sums up the level of propaganda drivel in the NATzO mass media.   Let's not get little details such as no single Russian soldier crossing the border
    of Crimea and the total number of Russian forces out of Sevastopol being less than 13,000 which is not enough to pacify 2.5 million people.
    And 64% of those 2.5 million are ethnic Russians who have always wanted to return Crimea to Russia.   For some reason the remaining 36%
    did not flee this "invasion".   During invasions and conquests there are typically large numbers of refugees.


    Where do you get the 64% number from? The Ukrainian government? More like 85%.

    Not the Ukrainian government. There are a lot of Ukrainians in Crimea. Not just Tatars. The 85% figure would
    imply that there were almost no Ukrainians there which is simply false.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%9A%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BC%D0%B0

    In 2014 we had

    Russians: 65.2%
    Ukrainians: 16.0%
    Crimean Tatars: 12.6%
    Tatars (Other): 2.3%
    Belorussians: 1.0%
    Armenians: 0.5%
    Others: 2.4%

    Ukrainians appear to have migrated out of Crimea between 2001 and 2014. This is consistent with my experience. I know
    Ukrainians in Canada who left Crimea. Russians migrate abroad less than Ukrainians. The economy of Crimea as part of Ukraine
    was in the toilet.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:01 am

    Vast majority of ethnic Ukrainians in the Crimea voted to join Russia too. Russian and Ukrainian voting patterns were virtually the same.

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    Post  kvs Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:12 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Vast majority of ethnic Ukrainians in the Crimea voted to join Russia too. Russian and Ukrainian voting patterns were virtually the same.

    Which totally breaks the propaganda about Russian invasion and occupation.

    Ukr Nazis from western Ukraine do not own the majority of Ukrainians.

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    Post  calripson Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:52 pm

    The 2001 and 2014 numbers come from a period when Crimea was under Ukrainian government control. There of course is no genetic distinction between Russians and Ukrainians. The fact that 97% of the inhabitants received Russian passports tells you everything you need to know.

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    Post  kvs Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:30 pm

    calripson wrote:The 2001 and 2014 numbers come from a period when Crimea was under Ukrainian government control. There of course is no genetic distinction between Russians and Ukrainians. The fact that 97% of the inhabitants received Russian passports tells you everything you need to know.

    There was no distinct border between Russians and Ukrainians since before the USSR and after. Populations of Russians lived in Ukraine and
    populations of Ukrainians lived in Russia. This is why nazionlism always leads to ethnic cleansing.

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    Post  Hole Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:17 pm

    Russia - USA Relations - Page 34 Fkntxt10
    Laughing

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    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:39 am

    I just found this article stating that their was no promise of NATO not enlarging and Gorbachev says no; I would like an analysis of this article.

    My memory of the immediate period of the end of the cold war the west didn't say that the Soviets lost the cold war, because that does not make sense unless imposing democracy and economic and political freedom is a punishment.

    It was only the next election cycle in the US where the leadership claimed to have won the cold war in the interests of getting reelected... it was a tough year and few years for politics... the Soviet Union was gone... no more boogey man... they had just walked all over Saddam in Kuwait, and then the Soviet Union collapsed as an organisation... the Warsaw Pact collapsed.

    When Terminator II came out that kid asked the Terminator why the robots and Skynet would launch a nuclear missile attack against the Russians... at any time in US history that kid would say... yehaw... nuke dem commies... it was a brief window that has since been closed and bricked over.
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    Post  auslander Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:11 pm

    I have been pretty quiet during the build up to the current crisis, this for more than one reason. Main reason was there's a whole lot of lads on this forum who can put 2+2 together real quick and some of what I posted elsewhere would have rung bells here plus made my knowledges known. Here's what I posted on another blog I frequent the day the Flots sailed, in response to a sudden herd of trolls screaming bloody murder against Mat Rossiya:

    "Ya’ll don’t listen very well. For 3 months I’ve given you every hint I could without breaking OpSec and generally, not always but generally, I’d wait until something was even vaguely hinted at in the local news, who are by the by quite observant and under the same restrictions we are, before I said anything, either that or I have reported what is observed eyes on in publik but in no way violating OpSec.

    I told you several times starting when VCO and I got out of hospital in late October that our pool of available muscle to help around the lawns and gardens was suddenly ‘unavailable’ since very early November. I have told you more than once of the racket from Belbek Aerodrome but a few kilometers north of us. I have told you of the sudden dearth of military aged men on our streets. I have told you of VCO and I stocking heavily up on food for us and the children. I have told you of the noise from the various specialist lagers near us as the specialists hone their skills 24/7. I have told you of the sudden lack of any uniforms on the streets in our little village on northside. I have told you of the sudden lack of any green vehicle traffic in and around our little northside valley. I reported to you within minutes of the Flot sailing out of harbor that the Flot had indeed sailed (in the local, and then national, news within minutes and with videos), as it was reported the other Russian Flots had sailed.What do all these ‘hints’ tell you?

    In my opinion Mat Rossiya has called up the reserves and is positioning all her assets as needed for an expected attack from SehSha. Nato don’t matter, it can’t and won’t fight because they well know they are looking down the muzzles of thousands of Comrade Kalashnikov’s Ode to World Peace and a sudden total lack of Russian gas at which point they are totally and irrevocably screwed. At this time war is 97% or more in the cards. The very fact that the Flots sailed worldwide and news reports the heavy movements of Russian ground forces west should tell you all including that Katai has our backs on the East Front."

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:47 pm

    He puts out a lot of videos but this one is particularly good as he examines why Russia is in a very strong position re OECD Agreements and how Lavrov is hammering it home to the confusion of the US et al.




    Then this one from Tucker

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    Post  kvs Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:49 pm

    The criminals running the USA are just demented and deluded enough that they think war on Russia is a feasible enterprise.
    Considering how pathetically wrong they have been on the sanctions wunderwaffen, they are going to get mauled if they
    pull anything. Unfortunately, people are going to die. My wish is that the maggot deciders that initiate the conflict all
    die horrible deaths.

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    Post  auslander Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:33 pm

    Statements from these two gentleman change nothing and unlike what Mercouris states, Mother will not wait a year or two years or five years or ten years to address this problem. In 6 months ukeland will be defacto, not officially but defacto, a nato member, ergo Mother will act long before that.

    Our Flots have sailed, there are no military men on our local streets, heavy movements of units from the eastern and central military districts heading west. Last evening and afternoon our local shops were totally mobbed, everyone is stocking up. Calm, but stocking up.

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