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    UFOs & Extraterrestrial Life

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:23 am

    when things are random then it can take 4.5 billion years to get humans...
    or humanoids, not necessarily mammalian.
    As mentioned, if dinosaurs weren't wiped out, some could evolve into 2 legged, 2 handed humanoids:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur_intelligence#Sapient_dinosaurs
    starman
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    Post  starman on Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:21 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    The other obvious problem is that as the star evolves... as the planets in the system move around, as objects hit the surface... the habitability can change radically over time.

    After the initial planetary game of billiards things may settle down and stay fairly stable.

    Once we master our own genetic code we can turn off both aging and reproduction... because if we don't there will be trouble.

    There's more than enough trouble already (overpopulation) despite aging and death. Under democracy turing off aging is possible but not reproduction....


    Last edited by starman on Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  starman on Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:27 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    or humanoids, not necessarily mammalian.
    As mentioned, if dinosaurs weren't wiped out, some could evolve into 2 legged, 2 handed humanoids:

    Greg Paul was skeptical of Russell's view. But who knows, given time even octopi might have radiated into a niche similar to ours, perhaps in some larger version of Earth with more water.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:14 pm

    @ GarryB

    I know what you are saying. If our sun changes radiation output, then Earth fries and Mars becomes habitable. Perhaps. Even if this is right, it does not indicate that the plan for life does not exist. It may simply mean that more areas in solar system given opportunity for life. Kind of like the sun's rays washing over a rotating Earth. Giving life to maximum area.

    About collisions making a plan unlikely. If collisions are not frequent, then they may be a force for greater number of species existing. Some 99% of species became extinct. Most for other reasons than meteor strike. Yet many species survived. If today all life was destroyed on Earth. Still new life will spring up. In few million years. Because conditions are perfect.

    A created universe by supreme being means that it is perfect. An evolving universe has greater perfection than a static universe. All around we see order. Even without a creator, it can not be denied. Nothing is random. Even randomness itself. The number PI, is so vast, that by sheer size of it, it contains the works of Shakespeare. If numbers given alphabetic values!

    Exactly you don't need God for evolution. And that indicates a very clever designer. The one that builds a self learning machine. We are doing now with AI. It is better that you build a machine that learns and fixes itself. You have the power..

    @ Tsavo Lion

    Cat, Dog, Snake is not who they are. It is what they do. Human is what we do. It is our job.  All life on Earth has common ancestor. We share DNA with bacteria. On Earth, all recent human species were the ones using tools. If our exact species had not taken over. Then Neanderthals or some other would have.

    https://youtu.be/uXoh6vi6J5U

    About great diversity of solar systems. This does not mean random effect. These systems still obey physical laws. But these laws allow for great diversity. In planet formation. But still this video shows different types of systems. You can see it. I think it possible to be able to predict. Also more powerful telescopes now being planned.

    https://youtu.be/Td_YeAdygJE

    Yet another.

    https://youtu.be/gnZVvYm6KKM



    Last edited by nomadski on Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:09 am

    After the initial planetary game of billiards things may settle down and stay fairly stable.

    But the point is that unless the star system consists of one star and one planet and nothing else there will always be an unstable situation... any multi planet system has a chaotic element in the sense that everything influences everything else.... the only two stable systems would be a star and nothing else, or a star and a single planet...

    There's more than enough trouble already (overpopulation) despite aging and death. Under democracy turing off aging is possible but not reproduction....

    Reproduction is the only form of immortality that we have. Ethically turning off aging effectively turns off natural death so you stay 20 years old in appearance for your entire life... who knows how that will effect any childs genetics.... having parent genes that never age... what if the babies stay babies?

    It would have to be written in to the contract to turn off aging that you give up reproductive rights to do so.... In my experience except for religious men it is mostly women that drive the want to have a child... perhaps so they can dress up dolls as adults... who knows.

    Yet many species survived. If today all life was destroyed on Earth. Still new life will spring up. In few million years. Because conditions are perfect.

    To be clear conditions are perfect for the life currently here... there is plenty of known life that does no thrive on earth now because humans have destroyed their natural habitat, or are polluting the water.

    One of the first mass extinctions as I understand it was because of the creation of single cell plant like life forms that developed photosynthesis... the direct result was an explosion in terms of the amount of free oxygen in the atmosphere... it is a very reactive element and require for a lot of combinations and chemical processes... you can't have fire or rust without it... The point is that oxygen as a fuel is much more potent than other chemicals so multi cell life forms became much more practical and abundant.

    A created universe by supreme being means that it is perfect.

    A perfect Universe might be boring and predictable... perhaps the supreme being created a perfect universe and got bored real quick because everything was perfect which made it also totally predictable.... perhaps a second or third attempt or perhaps a billionth attempt they just set the basic rules and watched what happens... far more entertaining and interesting...

    The number PI, is so vast, that by sheer size of it, it contains the works of Shakespeare. If numbers given alphabetic values!

    Yeah, but in terms of usefulness the numbers past about 6 or 7 decimal places become meaningless anyway.... and personally I think Shakespeare was a load of old toss anyway... we had to read that crap at highschool and it really didn't help me understand english or history at all... total waste of time.

    Exactly you don't need God for evolution. And that indicates a very clever designer. The one that builds a self learning machine. We are doing now with AI. It is better that you build a machine that learns and fixes itself. You have the power..

    But that is the problem it isn't smart or clever... it is dumb... we are only here because of dumb luck and an enormous amount of time. It is a very very inefficient use of energy and resources and time... no one is going to put for their first billion years in the work force you manages to sweep up the dust into piles that formed planets and then proceeded to use their gravity to sweep up the material in the gaps and randomly fling objects all over the place to tidy things up.

    starman
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    Post  starman on Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:25 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    But the point is that unless the star system consists of one star and one planet and nothing else there will always be an unstable situation... any multi planet system has a chaotic element in the sense that everything influences everything else....

    Despite the presence of several planets, the solar system must've been pretty stable for 4 billion years, or there probably wouldn't be life (which is highly vulnerable to cosmic disturbances as Chicxulub attests). In theory even Mercury and Pluto exert some gravitational influence on Earth, but it's infinitismal, and not even the jovians have caused chaos.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:44 am

    But there is evidence that at least mercurcy has changed orbit... which suggests it is possible other orbit changes have also taken place.

    The rings of Saturn... we don't know how old they are... several of the gas giants have rings too but much less easy to see from Earth... are they a recent collision or a moon that has recently self destructed... or perhaps a huge object from the oort cloud or where-ever... just looking at the surface of the moon and we can say the solar system is a very dangerous and chaotic place.

    The Earths surface would be much worse as it is a larger object and would get hit more often because its size and extra mass attracts impactors, but our atmosphere and weather and tectonic plate system hide the damage...

    You say life exists because of the stability... I would say life exists despite the instability... at least 6 significant major extinctions of life on the planet alone.
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    Post  starman on Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:10 pm

    GarryB wrote:But there is evidence that at least mercurcy has changed orbit... which suggests it is possible other orbit changes have also taken place.

    For the most part planetary orbits have been stable a long time.

    The rings of Saturn... we don't know how old they are... several of the gas giants have rings too but much less easy to see from Earth... are they a recent collision or a moon that has recently self destructed... or perhaps a huge object from the oort cloud or where-ever...

    Rings probably resulted from collisions of some of the many moons known to orbit jovians.


    just looking at the surface of the moon and we can say the solar system is a very dangerous and chaotic place.

    Any celestial body was bound to be pounded heavily during accretion. But since the end of heavy bombardment I wouldn't say the solar system was chaotic.

    Earths surface would be much worse as it is a larger object and would get hit more often because its size and extra mass attracts impactors, but our atmosphere and weather and tectonic plate system hide the damage...

    There are still detectable astroblemes such as Morokweng.
    It's interesting that only Chicxulub, of all known Mesozoic impacts, had a profound--or even discernable--effect. Manson hit North America dead center but there's virtually no evidence of even partial extinction at the time.


    You say life exists because of the stability... I would say life exists despite the instability...

    Degree of stability was always good enough.

    at least 6 significant major extinctions of life on the planet alone.

    Yeah but to my knowledge only the K-Pg was due to a cosmic factor. The end Permian appears due to volcanism, and an earlier event cold (?). Btw even mass extinctions may have actually aided the development of life. One thing I've always found interesting is that more sophisticated --as opposed to just new or different--life gradually arose over time. Not even mass extinctions "turned the clock back" they may even have pushed it forward.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:12 pm

    https://medium.com/intuitionmachine/there-is-no-randomness-only-chaos-and-complexity-c92f6dccd7ab

    Interesting article. A bit above my pay grade. But my own understanding about the concept of randomness is that it is a pink Elephant. It  has reality but no truth. If we can think of even one ordered system arising out of a random sequence, then we can no longer describe that system as random. Also we have a mind that perceives  this random effect. But if our mind is random, and it has to be in a random system. Then no such perception or mind can exist.

    https://youtu.be/HKQQAv5svkk

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:14 pm

    nomadski wrote:https://medium.com/intuitionmachine/there-is-no-randomness-only-chaos-and-complexity-c92f6dccd7ab

    Interesting article. A bit above my pay grade. But my own understanding about the concept of randomness is that it is a pink Elephant. It  has reality but no truth. If we can think of even one ordered system arising out of a random sequence, then we can no longer describe that system as random. Also we have a mind that perceives  this random effect. But if our mind is random, and it has to be in a random system. Then no such perception or mind can exist.

    https://youtu.be/HKQQAv5svkk


    There is a pathology in science to apply tools not designed for analysis of physical processes to them anyway since they are "similar". So we have lots
    of Gaussian statistics being applied to climate model output and to climate related observations. But the climate system is not white noise stochastic.
    It is a complex deterministic system with nonlinear dependence of various processes (e.g. albedo feedback, etc.) If you start to think about it, then
    there is nothing aside from quantum foam noise and other QM type behaviour (e.g. the electron cloud around an atom or molecule) that is stochastic,
    but even in the QM cases like atoms the electron cloud is ordered and has non-random effects through electrical moments, etc. All the planets and
    stars are deterministic processes. And chaos is not stochastic. It is the inability of most dynamical systems to follow exact curves in phase space
    like some ideal clock. There are not enough invariants of the motion (evolution) to constrain the phase space trajectory this tightly. So there is
    some wondering in fuzzy subdomains of phase space. Even energy conserving systems evolve on "slow" manifolds but are not exactly confined to them
    since various instability transitions can kick the trajectory off this slow manifold. However, the trajectories tend to return to it. One can think of
    the slow manifold as a manifestation of minimization of a free energy. It is not necessarily the Gibbs' free energy from thermodynamics, but is related.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:56 am

    For the most part planetary orbits have been stable a long time.

    No, you can't say that... for all we know 10,000 years ago the planets might have had a different order... in the scheme of things we have only seen our solar system and documented it for a tiny fraction of its existence... our ability to predict the future of our solar system is as poor as our actual knowledge of the past.

    We really have no idea... despite super computers that can model the impact of two planet sized objects and track all the little pieces and fragments to determine if they will create a moon type feature or just shatter each other... we still can't create a 100% accurate model of our solar system and just press reverse to see what sort of dust cloud it formed from...

    Rings probably resulted from collisions of some of the many moons known to orbit jovians.

    There are plenty of theories and lots of speculation... but how could it create such an evenly shaped ring around the entire planet... the gaps can be explained by the gravity effects of other moons and bodies around Saturn, but if it exploded the majority of fragments would be clumped together and not be distributed evenly around the planet in the nice even rings of mostly ice... perhaps it was a comet that directly impacted an ice moon... the heavy rocky bits thrown out of orbit and the enormous amount of ice and dust captured by Saturns orbit.

    At different heights the material would move at different speeds so the material closer to the surface would be moving faster than the stuff further out...

    Any celestial body was bound to be pounded heavily during accretion. But since the end of heavy bombardment I wouldn't say the solar system was chaotic.

    We seem to be hit with a rather large rock from space every few million years... I would have to rate that chaotic, and we really don't know if the order of the planets will remain the same...

    Degree of stability was always good enough.

    The moon stabilises our poles and creates tides which in turn create tidal pools where lots of early life developed...

    Yeah but to my knowledge only the K-Pg was due to a cosmic factor. The end Permian appears due to volcanism, and an earlier event cold (?). Btw even mass extinctions may have actually aided the development of life. One thing I've always found interesting is that more sophisticated --as opposed to just new or different--life gradually arose over time. Not even mass extinctions "turned the clock back" they may even have pushed it forward.

    Extinctions seem to be as normal as life... without mass extinctions we wouldn't be here. There is an Australian tree that they were keen to protect and help save, and they carefully looked after it but they couldn't get it to grow or expand... then they realised that they had managed the land where these trees were growing... they were killing the trees they wanted to save... the seed of these trees were super hard... the only way this tree could release its seed to grow new trees was in a very hot bush fire... their management prevented the bushfires the tree needed to grow more trees...

    If we can think of even one ordered system arising out of a random sequence, then we can no longer describe that system as random. Also we have a mind that perceives this random effect. But if our mind is random, and it has to be in a random system. Then no such perception or mind can exist.

    Well the best example of this is those people saying they see the face of Jesus in the flames of a burning building, or they see a face in a photo of the surface of Mars... the Human Brain seeks order... it seeks answers and structure... get a rubber band and two screws... put the screws side by side and the rubber band below it in a way that the screws look like eyes and the rubber band looks like a mouth and show it to someone and they will say they see a face. No face in nature looks like a rubber band and two screws, but they will identify it as a face anyway... a child will tell you it is a face... even though it clearly is not... those screws cannot see and the rubber band cannot speak or eat or sneeze.

    Random systems can appear to have order or structure, but normally it is the human mind trying to apply order and structure to try to make sense of what is chaotic... humans don't like chaotic.

    There is a pathology in science to apply tools not designed for analysis of physical processes to them anyway since they are "similar".

    I was talking to a social sciences student about the statistics of populations and he showed me a formula which included Pi. I asked why Pi was there and he basically said it makes the calculations more accurate. In science they often add arbitrary numbers or constants to correct formulas that are otherwise slightly wrong. It is a bit like dark matter and dark energy... the numbers don't add up so you work out the difference and add that to the formula to make it accurate.

    It sounds like cheating, but if it works on every example that you can test it becomes a tool for examples where you don't know and can't test.
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    Post  starman on Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:21 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    No, you can't say that... for all we know 10,000 years ago the planets might have had a different order...

    Might've but hardly the most parsimonious view. The high metal content of inner planets and high volatile content--including lighter gases--of jovians suggests they're all pretty much where they originally formed. Had there been a jovian at Venus' distance there'd be a clear case for migration, post accretion.

    The moon stabilises our poles and creates tides which in turn create tidal pools where lots of early life developed...

    The moon stabilizes planetary obliquity but I don't think a moon is essential for habitability. It can slow planetary rotation and that can cause temperature extremes.

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    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:48 am

    Might've but hardly the most parsimonious view. The high metal content of inner planets and high volatile content--including lighter gases--of jovians suggests they're all pretty much where they originally formed. Had there been a jovian at Venus' distance there'd be a clear case for migration, post accretion.

    All our theories about system formation basically said gas giants couldn't form close to their star and certainly wouldn't remain gas giants if they ever found themselves in that position... but we have discovered hundreds of star systems where large jupiter sized and bigger planets are near their parent star... so the old views of how our system formed get blown out of the water...

    Absence of evidence does not equal evidence of absence... just because there is not one there now does not mean there has never been one there or there wont be one there in the future...

    The moon stabilizes planetary obliquity but I don't think a moon is essential for habitability. It can slow planetary rotation and that can cause temperature extremes.

    Without the moon being present there is nothing keeping the earth on its current axis... the axis could shift resulting in one side of the earth always facing the sun and the other side always facing away... which would have a fairly fundamental effect on life on Earth.

    We are here because everything happened just right... the people of Mars and Venus and Jupiter were not so lucky and wont be there now.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:33 am

    the axis could shift resulting in one side of the earth always facing the sun and the other side always facing away...
    Mercury, Mars & Venus (it spins backwards) don't have big moons & still they r not tidally locked. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_(planet)

    https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/venus/overview/

    https://mars.nasa.gov/all-about-mars/facts/

    W/o the Moon, the Earth's rotation may actually speed up as there won't be any ocean tides to slow it down.
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    Post  starman on Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:15 am

    GarryB wrote:
    All our theories about system formation basically said gas giants couldn't form close to their star and certainly wouldn't remain gas giants if they ever found themselves in that position... but we have discovered hundreds of star systems where large jupiter sized and bigger planets are near their parent star... so the old views of how our system formed get blown out of the water...

    Just because a gas giant is near a star doesn't necessarily mean it formed there--although that is possible in the case of dimmer stars.


    Without the moon being present there is nothing keeping the earth on its current axis... the axis could shift resulting in one side of the earth always facing the sun and the other side always facing away... which would have a fairly fundamental effect on life on Earth.

    I don't think obliquity shifts result in one side permanently facing a star. That's a result of tidal locking. Mars btw has no stabilizing moon and while it is thought to have obliquity shifts, they aren't very drastic.
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    Post  starman on Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:21 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Mercury, Mars & Venus (it spins backwards) don't have big moons & still they r not tidally locked.

    Mercury and Venus are tidally locked, even if it isn't a 1:1 lock. You're right about Mars. It's noteworthy that, even without a stabilizing moon, its obliquity is practically the same as Earth's.


    W/o the Moon, the Earth's rotation may actually speed up as there won't be any ocean tides to slow it down.

    Exactly; a moon can be a liability.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:05 am

    Many big moons around gian planets may also harbor life.
    Another Day, Another Exoplanet, and Scientists Just Can't Keep Up

    100s of Ks of planetary systems may have 100s or even Ks of habitable planets &/ moons, many with intelligent life forms.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:24 am

    Just because a gas giant is near a star doesn't necessarily mean it formed there--although that is possible in the case of dimmer stars.

    But our old model states the gas giants form further out in the cold because they can't form close in in the hot areas near the star... the old model doesn't really allow for moving planets either so a gas giant near a star would have to have formed there...

    I don't think obliquity shifts result in one side permanently facing a star.

    If the pole around which the earth rotates pointed towards the sun then that north pole would remain in sunlight 24/7...

    Mars btw has no stabilizing moon and while it is thought to have obliquity shifts, they aren't very drastic.

    We haven't had close up views of it long enough to know what its rotation is like.... hell the date that Pluto was detected was in the 1800s... it is now 2019 and it still hasn't been around one orbit of the sun since we first detected it...

    Exactly; a moon can be a liability.

    All the impacts on the moon are impacts the earth didn't have to endure... plus it looks pretty... and indicates seasons and as I said tidal pools were an ideal habitat for early life... rock pools meant safety but occasionally filled with fresh nutrients and material because of the tidal effect...

    Early Earth had a moon that was much closer that probably caused super tides, and the early Earth had a rather shorter day, but tidal forces are slowing that down... but then the moon is gradually moving away from us and so its influence will gradually reduce anyway.

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    Post  starman on Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:03 am

    GarryB wrote:
    But our old model states the gas giants form further out in the cold because they can't form close in in the hot areas near the star... the old model doesn't really allow for moving planets either so a gas giant near a star would have to have formed there...

    I think the old model just needs a little tweaking. Gas giants form far from stars but can be hurled closer for example by a close encounter with another one.

    If the pole around which the earth rotates pointed towards the sun then that north pole would remain in sunlight 24/7...

    For a while but not indefinitely. Half a planetary years later it'll be in darkness.

    We haven't had close up views of it long enough to know what its rotation is like....

    Rate of rotation is well known--c 24 hors 37 minutes.

    hell the date that Pluto was detected was in the 1800s...

    Na Pluto wasn't discovered until 1930.

    All the impacts on the moon are impacts the earth didn't have to endure...

    Not all, the moon isn't right here but 238,000 miles away.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:50 pm

    but then the moon is gradually moving away from us and so its influence will gradually reduce anyway.
    it will then start to come closer again- we won't lose it.
    Uranus has the largest tilt of any planet in our Solar System and it spins on its side, tilted 97.77° to its orbit. This means that one of Uranus' poles is often pointed towards the Sun, giving Uranus very long seasons. The rings of Uranus are also sideways compared to the rings of other planets. Why Uranus has such a large tilt is still a mystery. Many astronomers think that Uranus may have been hit by something really big a long time ago, and was knocked over on its side.
    http://coolcosmos.ipac.caltech.edu/ask/129-Is-Uranus-really-tilted-on-its-side-
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moons_of_Uranus
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:45 am

    For a while but not indefinitely. Half a planetary years later it'll be in darkness.

    With the planet covered 2/3rds water then migration to follow the edge of the sunlight... a habitable region between constant light and constant darkness would be impossible... which would be fatal to anything on land that could not endure either extreme heat or extreme cold... most likely the dominant life form on land would be Lichen...

    Na Pluto wasn't discovered until 1930.

    Quite right, my mistake... it also used to be the only planet in this solar system discovered by an American, but not now.


    Rate of rotation is well known--c 24 hors 37 minutes.

    No, I mean 1,000 years ago we didn't know its speed of rotation... its current rotation speed might be slower or faster for all we know...

    Not all, the moon isn't right here but 238,000 miles away.

    In astronomical terms it practically occupies the same space...
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    Post  starman on Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:16 am

    GarryB wrote:With the planet covered 2/3rds water then migration to follow the edge of the sunlight... a habitable region between constant light and constant darkness would be impossible... which would be fatal to anything on land that could not endure either extreme heat or extreme cold... most likely the dominant life form on land would be Lichen...

    There's also hibernation.


    No, I mean 1,000 years ago we didn't know its speed of rotation... its current rotation speed might be slower or faster for all we know...

    I think its speed of rotation has been known for a few centuries already because permanent markings--visible even in relatively small scopes--make it easy to determine.

    In astronomical terms it practically occupies the same space...

    Generally, a quarter million miles may not be much on a cosmic scale but in terms of the trajectory of an asteroid it's something.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:57 pm

    https://www.insider.com/nasa-plans-to-find-alien-life-next-decade-2019-11

    https://www.newsweek.com/display-dome-covering-russian-meteorite-mysteriously-lifts-off-1477927
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    Post  starman on Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:42 pm

    I think ET has been proven since '47 but UFOlogy aside, it's reasonable to think (publicly knowable) alien life will be found, beneath the cryosphere on Mars or if spectroscopic studies of an exoplanet reveal its chemical signature.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:16 pm

    Astronomers Just Identified Another Important Aspect of Planets That Could Host Life

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