B.R.I.C.S. Discussion

Johninnk: I was going to post an article I saw on the internet about this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-threatens-100-tariff-on-the-bric-bloc-of-nations-if-they-act-to-undermine-us-dollar/ar-AA1v2ETA?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=0027d67f06b840b68b7d5955ee9ed11c&ei=19


I don't understand why some on here like KVS and Garry B got their hopes up an assumed Trump was going to be more reasonable than a Democrat.  He is your typical US President that will try to preserve that corrupt US dollar as a reserve currency that exploits other nations.  He is an enemy of Russia like Biden. I however think his threat is hollow because it would cause prices to rise an make it expensive and nearly impossible for average Americans to buy products that are made in China since the US and China trade alot.  


I hope this wakes up some on this forum an brings them to the realization that Trump at the end of the day is not a friend and probably should question if he will change his policies toward the Ukraine War.  US conservative politicians support the US imperial empire, financial terrorism, military aggressive behavior like US liberals; both are two sides of the same coin.

To a degree I agree with you. Trump is a US politician and as such, regardless of the hype, there are parameters of fundamental US strategy that he can't go outside.

To stay on topic here, regarding your comments on tariffs, he did it last time. Basically he imposed import tariffs, the exporting countries devalued their currency against the $ so US prices stayed much as they were. Mexico and Canada are already reacting.

Whether he can pull the same stunt again with the same results will be interesting as will the BRICS countries reaction to his threat.

Trump is sane, pragmatic and not an ideological fruitcake. That's already an improvement.

I hope the BRICS teams didn't expect the US to cast aside its well established BIG BULLY strategy with the change of President.

Pretty sure they are banking on it... there is nothing like an ultimatum by a bully to force victims to fight back or stop being victims.

Trump has an inflated view of the importance of the US in the world... not only does the world not need them... they are actually better off without them...

I don't understand why some on here like KVS and Garry B got their hopes up an assumed Trump was going to be more reasonable than a Democrat.

Harris would likely start WWIII... no one in the democrat party even mentioned their actions might lead to nuclear war... the only ones ringing the alarm bells were Trumps team and allies, which makes me think behind all the bravado that he understands and fears starting WWIII.

He has a broken country to fix and getting people into good paying jobs that make good stuff is a huge part of that. All these tariffs will do is make foreign stuff too expensive to buy in the US so the US is going to have to start producing stuff and can be assured of a market because the tariffs will make imported stuff too expensive to buy.

Ironically it is essentially what western sanctions did to Russia.

Russia doesn't care about US sanctions because the only things the US buys from Russia are things it desperately needs so it is hardly going to impose sanctions on them.

More of a problem for China but BRICS are working to develop non western markets for their goods and new trade routes to and from to get those working well.

This will isolate the US... even from its western allies, but exceptions and such things will likely be common to start with while Americans organise domestic alternatives to the products they are putting tariffs on otherwise everything in the US is going to get really expensive.

He is an enemy of Russia like Biden.

Biden actively attacked Russia and Russians... Trump is lashing out trying to save his country but he doesn't want or need to hurt Russia... he just wants the US to make more money again, but that bridge has been burned.

Besides he only has one term left... his first term he was proud to say he imposed more sanctions on Russia than any president before him.

Russia doesn't give a shit about US tariffs... Russia doesn't pay the tariffs... the US consumer does... but they wont buy Russian stuff anyway so Russia will be more focussed on selling products to other countries instead.

hollow because it would cause prices to rise an make it expensive and nearly impossible for average Americans to buy products that are made in China since the US and China trade alot.

The real goal is to make imports too expensive so American consumers have to buy local... so now would be a good time for you to set up production of things everyone buys a lot of...

I hope this wakes up some on this forum an brings them to the realization that Trump at the end of the day is not a friend and probably should question if he will change his policies toward the Ukraine War.

I have never thought he was a friend of Russia... just that he was the lessor of two evils with Hillary, then Biden, then Harris. If you didn't get Biden we probably wouldn't have a war in the Ukraine now... or it might have started later.

Trump is sane, pragmatic and not an ideological fruitcake. That's already an improvement.

Huge ego, and if the right people question his statements he retracts them... remember the famous... I misspoke comment?

Trump is sane, pragmatic and not an ideological fruitcake. That's already an improvement.

His previous term proved otherwise.
Presented himself as a narcistic fart driven by emotions and masquerading inferiority syndrome as an advantage.
Nothing has changed since, and he will be even more distanced from any reasonable alternatives by the deep state.
His farts on X concerning threatening the countries that dump the $ and "create own currencies" clearly shows his mental conditions.
He is addressing mostly China, as the trade deficit id almost $400bln in Chinas favor. But China won't dump the dollar any time soon - my own company trades with them and they are very straight in that. Don't want to trade in juans with me, accepting only $ and E.
The other beneficiary is the EU - trade deficit is smaller, but still makes E160 bln in EU favor. But none of them will became a BRICS member any time soon. And none of them will dump the dollar - it is opposite. European vassals are pushed to suck the US bonds emissions.
The other BRICS countries are irrelevant - India has a surplus export, but Brasil does not.
Most of the BRICS candidates or member states do not trade with the US at a levels wort of mentioning, aside from the Saudi Arabia. But they won't dump $ for clear reasons.
So we are facing a narcissistic fart made for internal usage only of how tough he is, and the only potential target is China.
And that is just a beginning and he is still not at the office!

There is one very powerful restriction - it is the cost of debt.
Interest rates at the moment already bypassed the overall Pentagon spending, and keep rising.

His farts on X concerning threatening the countries that dump the $ and "create own currencies" clearly shows his mental conditions.

That reminds me... we will be going back to 3am posts on X or whatever from Trump about whatever is keeping him up at night... that was often funny.

He was not a good president but at least he talks peace. The problem of course is that he talks peace through strength at a time when the US and all its vassals in HATO don't have the strength to stop Russia in the Ukraine... so empty threats of bluffing...

His tariffs might kickstart the US economy by destroying the economies of all their allies that rely on exports to the US market... all those countries are likely to look to each other and BRICS for alternative places they can send their goods and in return buy what they used to buy from the US... and there is a good chance they will get a better deal eventually when the new trade routes are worked out. The US will be producing most of its own stuff like Russia was forced to with the western sanctions, but there will be a few hard core anti BRICS pro US countries that are addicted to the US dollar that will avoid tariffs and continue on as normal... not that this will save them because if Trump wants their products made in America how long before they are?

So he has 4 years to change things... it will be interesting.

He is addressing mostly China, as the trade deficit id almost $400bln in Chinas favor. But China won't dump the dollar any time soon - my own company trades with them and they are very straight in that. Don't want to trade in juans with me, accepting only $ and E.

When Trump imposes huge and extensive Tariffs on the Chinese, the Chinese will just repeat what they did before and devalue their currency, so all the countries trading with China in Yuan should not have too much in reserve... wait for it to be devalued and then buy up big to have reserves when they put it back up again...

Unfortunately, the dollar will remain in circulation for a long time as a reserve currency, etc., which will allow the US to continue to maintain its status and print money without restrictions.

It might exist for a while but with the bank that sells Russian energy sanctioned from Swift and Russian companies no longer allowed to use US dollars with their dollars in the west stolen already there is no incentive to try to use US dollars for most countries. The main thing keeping the US dollar in circulation and the Euro is that there is no simple easy alternative... which is what this new BRICS currency will eventually be. It is also supposed to be cheap to buy making it a better alternative for most countries too. The US does make money converting its dollars from other currencies, but the BRICS currency is not supposed to generate currency for the issuer, it is supposed to make inter country trade easier and simpler and cheaper.

If you think the US dollar is safe then why all the panic from Trump?

More importantly... Trump got elected because he is not the only one worried about BRICS and alternative trade currencies dethroning the US dollar.

The US government has been working hard these last few decades on debt... the core problem is that their work has focussed on increasing the amount of debt they are allowed to have instead of balancing the books and paying off that debt like any normal private citizen would do.

Most companies with that level of debt would probably declare bankruptcy and start again with a new company later on.

Interest rates at the moment already bypassed the overall Pentagon spending, and keep rising.

Very true... the only thing really keeping them afloat is the corrupt ratings agencies that give them ratings well above what they would give any other country in the same position. In fact the US rating should be garbage in their vernacular... This would actually restrict their access to all sorts of things including more loans... but the rating agencies are based on US soil and don't want to be marched out of their offices in chains and be sent to solitary confinement until they had changed their minds.

BRICS is going to have new markets for various things that will replace US and western dominated markets... food in the US and France, Metals in London, etc etc creating new food and metals and energy markets where the producers and the consumers can negotiate and discuss prices and don't let speculators push the prices up or down to artificially change the economic situation in some places... the way the west tries to drive down the energy prices to hurt Russia and Venezuela or food prices to hurt countries in Africa and around the world.

The loss of control over these things is also going to hurt the west too, but it is going to provide stability and growth for the rest of the world.

Africa isn't poor because its people are stupid or corrupt, though of course they do have both types like anywhere else... Africa is largely poor because the colonial west encourages war and corruption and division and uses its money and power to buy up all the resources worth anything and bleeds them the way it did in Russia and they only had control of the place for the 1990s and still they got assets and power that they did not earn or deserve and are only losing that now because the west has cut off Russia and so they can't continue to extract money from Russia... so instead they were using their control of these companies to sabotage the Russian economy with go slows or just shutting down companies that they were extracting money out of the Russian economy before to buy nice houses and yachts in the west.

Russia used this problem for them to extract the money from Russia and the go slows to seize the companies, remove the western based CEOs and restart the companies with local ownership that does not send the profits overseas and spends their money upgrading their companies and improving things in Russia.

So we are facing a narcissistic fart made for internal usage only of how tough he is, and the only potential target is China.
And that is just a beginning and he is still not at the office!

Trumps first term was mostly directed at China and Iran... the sanctions he imposed on Russia were like the tariffs he is planning... they forced Russia to stop buying stuff from the west and either make it themselves or look to the rest of the world... which has been fantastic for them.

Then there was a Biden term and he hit Russia hard and eased up on China and Iran... he obviously does not get enough funding from Israelis to be a hard core supporter like Trump is.

Now Trump is coming back and he is likely to be focused on the US and that means the trade deficit with China and he is likely going to stop sending money to Kiev.... from a Russian perspective that is an improvement and it is also a good opportunity for China to look to the rest of the world to sell their stuff and get off their addiction to the US market.

America might learn the rest of the world does not need them any more, but who knows... their attempts to make things for themselves might lead them to realise they don't need the rest of the world either... but I am not so sure on the latter because greedy US companies were quick to outsource production for cheaper foreign labour and stiff the US worker. The US population became the consumer, but without high paying jobs how much can they consume?

Let China take the heat this time around, it might hurt a little but I don't think the US will get a war going with Taiwan so it will not cost them young men like the war in the Ukraine is costing both sides.

Trump attacked BRICS over dollar fears, by Olga Samofalova for RIANOVOSTI. 12.04.2024.

Donald Trump is trying his best to keep the dollar and the entire American economy afloat. But it is becoming increasingly difficult. Now, it is not just China that is a big thorn in the side of the US, but the BRICS economic association. Fearing the power of BRICS, Trump has begun threatening 100 percent tariffs on the countries that are part of the union. But no one seems to take him seriously.

The new US President Donald Trump, who has not yet taken office, has begun to sow discord among his trading partners. Earlier, he threatened to impose tariffs on his neighbours, Canada and Mexico. Now he has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on goods from the BRICS countries if they abandon the dollar and dare to create their own new currency.

However, China, as the main economic rival of the USA in the world, was not scared, but stated that it intends, on the contrary, to strengthen practical cooperation with its BRICS partners in various areas. Russia stated that if the USA, from a position of economic power, forces countries to use the dollar, this will further strengthen the trend of switching to national currencies.

India has called Trump's threats unfounded. "Trump is known to bark more than bite. It is unclear to what extent he will follow through on his threat. What criteria will the US use to determine whether a country has abandoned the dollar? And does US law allow sanctions against countries just because they abandon the dollar?" said former Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry called Trump's threats to impose 100 percent tariffs senseless and provocative. During his first term, Trump also threatened China, Mexico, and Canada with similar measures, but ultimately did not implement them. The future US president will still take into account the global economic situation, Brazil believes.

China, however, did not wait for the US to put its words into action. On Tuesday, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on exports to the US of products containing gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials. These substances can be used for military purposes, so their export will be restricted.

Gallium and germanium are used in the production of semiconductors. Germanium is also used in infrared technology, fiber optic cables, and solar cells. Antimony is used in the production of ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons, and night vision goggles, as well as in batteries and photovoltaic equipment. However, according to Reuters, there were no shipments of germanium and gallium from China to the United States until October 2017.

In any case, Beijing responded with action instead of words. This is perceived as Beijing's response to another blow to Chinese semiconductors being prepared in the United States. Reuters, citing sources, claims that Washington is preparing to impose export restrictions on 140 companies. Among them are about 20 Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, two investment companies and more than 100 equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor industry. This decision will affect, in particular, such corporations as Naura Technology Group, Piotech and SiCarrier Technology.

In addition, the US wants to ban the export of memory chips and equipment for producing microchips to China.

In addition, in September, the US raised duties from 25% to 100% on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as on semiconductors and photovoltaic cells (from 25% to 50%) and introduced new 25% tariffs on lithium-ion batteries, a number of minerals, etc. The increase in duties on semiconductors comes into effect in 2025, and on natural graphite (which is a raw material for electric vehicle batteries) - in 2026.

"China has further tightened controls on graphite exports, likely to deceive US expectations that it will buy the necessary amount of this material "in reserve" before sanctions come into force in 2026," believes Ksenia Bondarenko, an expert at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. “Trump has not yet taken office as US President, but the trade war between the US and China is already intensifying. His taking office will in any case escalate trade wars around the world – therefore, a new round of tariff increases is inevitable, especially in industries that are important for the US economy (the automotive industry, chip and semiconductor production, information technology, etc.). All this is in order to increase the competitiveness of American goods both directly in the US and outside the country,” says Ksenia Bondarenko.

Trump's second task is to protect the dollar as a reserve currency. "The US rating is no longer AAA, and the issue of huge public debt and double deficit (current account balance and budget) remains a factor of pressure on the economy. Potential increase in payments between BRICS countries in a currency other than the US dollar carries additional significant risks from the outside. And therefore Trump continues to threaten countries that want to reduce the volume of settlements in US dollars, and for him the key method of threats is increasing duties," Bondarenko explains.

The dollar's influence is indeed weakening, it is visible to the naked eye. "Since 2001, the dollar has lost about 26% (from 73 to 47 percent) of the world trade market. More and more countries are refusing to use the American dollar in their settlements," says Ekaterina Novikova, associate professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.


"According to the Russian Central Bank, this year payments in settlements between the BRICS countries in foreign trade in national currencies have already grown to 85% against 65% last year. And the share of the US dollar and euro in global settlements between all countries in 2025, according to the most approximate estimates of global rating agencies, will decrease from the current 78.5% to 40%," notes Nikolai Vavilov, specialist in the strategic research department of the TR company.

An additional negative factor for the US dollar was Saudi Arabia's refusal to use the dollar in oil trade settlements, which is what we are talking about in so-called petrodollars, Novikova adds.

It is therefore not surprising that Trump is so concerned about the dollar and the future of the American economy.

"We can already state that in the next few decades the global economy will be divided into regional associations, between which the necessary trade interactions "based on interests" will be built. At the same time, Trump's threats towards the BRICS countries look at least strange and are explained by the US habit of dominating the global economy. But has this dominance remained? China is the leading trading partner for 124 countries, while for the US this figure will be twice as small - 56 countries. Last year, China and the ASEAN countries together exceeded the US values ​​in terms of import volume. And this does not even take into account the markets of India, African countries and the economies of Latin America. At the same time, if the US is used to paying for transactions with its debt bonds, which are no longer of any value, then Asian countries are solvent for the world market," Ekaterina Novikova reasons.

At the same time, neither the BRICS countries nor experts take Trump’s threats seriously.

"The introduction of 100% duties on goods from BRICS countries, so loudly announced by Donald Trump, is highly unlikely, as this innovation could have a very negative impact on ordinary consumers in the US itself. This will lead to an increase in prices for imported goods from BRICS countries, and will also increase inflation," says Nikolai Vavilov.

Trump, as a true businessman, bargains and maximizes threats in order to negotiate better conditions for himself. Vavilov believes that under the slogan of protecting the US economy, Trump is pursuing a completely different goal. "Trump wants to continue robbing the EU, and if possible, the countries of Asia and, above all, China. This economic blow is planned to be inflicted primarily on Chinese sales markets, which characterizes the achievement of Trump's hidden political goals," the interlocutor believes. So the world is in for an exciting game-struggle between the US and China in the new year.

https://vz.ru/economy/2024/12/4/1301391.html

I am sure all the BRICS countries are taking his threats seriously and the best way to defend themselves is to accelerate the BRICS concept of a collective group of countries that have real free trade.

Trump is doing what he has to... it was western sanctions that allowed Putin to run a make Russia great again programme of making things... essential things... in Rusia, and the west imposing sanctions forced Russians to buy Russian goods or goods from friendly countries. Of course even with an EU food ban Russians kept buying some EU food because it was sold to Turkey and other countries and repackaged as being local and then sold to Russia for a markup, but it allowed the local food producers to get going and grow (pardon the pun) and develop and become competitive... and of course using the latest technology but not the latest steroids and growth hormones and pesticides and chemicals meant it was healthy food too.

The point is that Trump can't rely on the world imposing sanctions on the US, thus forcing US companies to fill the void created by imports. What he can do is put tariffs on imports so it becomes easier for US producers to compete in terms of price... and that is what he is doing.

His core problem is that even if he succeeds the US will lose its export markets because the countries he imposes tariffs for their imports to the US are likely to impose tariffs on US exports to their countries... and the countries that used to sell to the US are going to look for other markets and their importers are going to look for other countries to import from too.

BRICS are not ignoring Trump, they will be looking for ways to avoid selling or buying from the US and also using US dollars... Russia can't use US dollars easily and now Biden has blocked that Russian bank that transacted energy sales they probably could trade in US dollars if they wanted to.

They don't.

The US turned it into a weapon so why would anyone be interested in holding that against their own throat?

Even if this administration wont use it as a weapon again, there is no guarantee that the next will not do something stupid.

Why take the risk.... it is better to have a special international trade currency that is controlled by the collective of countries that are going to use it... the BRICS countries... The US has proven untrustworthy.... and with asset seizures by the entire G-7 and EU and HATO, they cannot be trusted either.

In the past when he was a senator, Marco Rubio, who is now the Secretary of State, saw right to the heart of the matter :

- Today Brazil, which is the largest country in the Western Hemisphere south of the United States... So it signed a deal with China, according to which they will henceforth trade in their own currencies. Bypassing the dollar. They are creating a duplicate system of the world economy, completely independent of the American one. At this rate, in 5 years we will not be able to even mention sanctions, because there will be too many countries trading in currencies other than dollars, and we will no longer be able to impose sanctions on them.