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    Icebreakers

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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:33 am

    Unless they can transit non-ice rated ships, it will have a hard time competing with the Suez.
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    Post  kvs Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:44 am

    mnztr wrote:Unless they can transit non-ice rated ships, it will have a hard time competing with the Suez.

    Noted for later reference.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:47 am

    mnztr wrote:Unless they can transit non-ice rated ships, it will have a hard time competing with the Suez.

    So Russia's vast and ever expanding rail network doesn't exist to you? The same boats that aren't Arctic treated can use the rail network. The same rail network easily connects to the Caspian Sea, in which both Russia and Iran are in the process of building the North-South Transport Corridor, and apparently India is interested in supporting it.
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    Post  mnztr Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:43 am

    My point was the Northern sea route as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Nothing to do with moving goods to and from Russia.
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    Post  mnztr Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:48 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Unless they can transit non-ice rated ships, it will have a hard time competing with the Suez.

    So Russia's vast and ever expanding rail network doesn't exist to you? The same boats that aren't Arctic treated can use the rail network. The same rail network easily connects to the Caspian Sea, in which both Russia and Iran are in the process of building the North-South Transport Corridor, and apparently India is interested in supporting it.

    Rail can never compete with the cost of moving goods by sea over long distances. Once you have to go intermodal there is a load/unload cost. Transport prices air>truck>train>ship

    Ships are slower, and take more time to load/unload they all have their purposes. Of course if the sea route is massively longer then the model does not hold. But for large liquid,bulk and containerized cargo ships are generally the cheapest by far.

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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:50 am

    kvs wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Unless they can transit non-ice rated ships, it will have a hard time competing with the Suez.

    Noted for later reference.


    You do know that an 80K ton ice rated ship costs about the same as a 220K ton non ice rated right?
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    Post  GarryB Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:24 am

    Rail can never compete with the cost of moving goods by sea over long distances

    Normally true because rail lines from New Zealand can't reach any other countries.

    Ships do have the advantage of carrying enormous volumes of goods, but a rail line going from Asia to the EU can continuously transport enormous numbers of cargo containers that can stop off and be dropped off in multiple locations throughout Europe... trains can head in any direction to deliver containers which can then be put on trucks and delivered directly to your door. Storms and bad weather generally do not effect trains, and improving infrastructure could allow freight trains to travel rather quickly over enormous distances...

    Transport prices air>truck>train>ship

    So you agree the difference in costs are not huge... I would suggest that in the US that shipping stuff from Asia to the west coast makes sense but shipping stuff from Asia to the east coast... right now it probably makes rather more sense to ship it to the west coast and transport it by train to the east coast.

    Most shipping crates end up on trains or trucks at some point anyway.

    You do know that an 80K ton ice rated ship costs about the same as a 220K ton non ice rated right?

    If no one uses the NSR except Russian shipping companies then they will get a lot of shipping contracts because they can shorten the trip by 14 days on average.

    Obviously some dick might crash theeir ship in the Suez canal and it might take an extra few weeks... critical if you are transporting food or perishables... going by the arctic route might not be possible if you are transporting live animals... though I would think cooking in the Egyptian heat is not a better way to go than freezing to death in the arctic high north.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:40 am

    right now it probably makes rather more sense to ship it to the west coast and transport it by train to the east coast.
    it may take a few days less, but it's still cheaper to use the Panama Canal to deliver containers directly to the East Coast. That's also why China wanted to build a bigger Nicaragua Canal.
    The Suez Canal will have many more incidents, unless it gets widened along its entire length & its specific navigation procederes followed closely by ships crews & local pilots.
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    Post  kvs Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:50 pm

    The main bother for the NSR is the recent NATzO propaganda about pollution destroying the fragile Arctic ecosystems. Of course,
    the fact that any such pollution will be essentially confined to Russia's coastal zone is not a consideration. So there is pressure to
    build ships that use LNG instead of regular shipping grade oil. The whole "ice class" "showstopper" is BS. If there is an icebreaker
    escort, then there is no need for ice class ships. The requirements are well known after decades of icebreaker use.

    Icebreakers - Page 16 Arctia-Polaris-Ice-breaker-2000

    Note how the cleared ice path does not really close. That is because the icebreaker literally breaks up the ice in its path and
    the remaining sea ice does not magically expand to fill the gap. It takes a while for the winds and currents to shift the ice
    sheet around to close the track. So there is no risk of any crushing of the ship following the icebreaker.

    Russia should organize a container ship flotilla festival in December to show all the naysayers what the reality is.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:49 pm

    Not all shipments are time sensitive. If they are then air/rail/truck would make sense. Rail is more of a competitor for domestic air freight then sea freight. Will the Northen Sea Route be 14 days less if the ship is plowing through ice? Even then I am not 100% sure it would be a deciding factor. The fuel efficiency of the mega ships is pretty hard to compete with. If you can get these huge ships through, maybe with a slightly upgraded bow or a stern that can deal with ice, then it can work. fuel and labor costs are the key drivers. 20 crew moving 20,000 TEU is mindblowing. That would take 10000 truck drivers and 5-600 train drivers. Fuel efficiency of a ship steaming at 18 knots is far higher then a train. Plus maintining the rail network costs a ton of money. Ships are the most efficient way of moving huge amounts of stuff. the longest freight train is 375 cars. Double stacked the containers would be 5000 cars 4 to a car. Also loading and unloading trains is much less efficient then a ship.
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    Post  lyle6 Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:06 pm

    Ships are also extremely vulnerable to pirates. Could be bulbheads or just the USN, doesn't matter - its entirely unacceptable for the economies of Europe and Asia to be beholden to some jackass on a boat. Sacrificing hundreds of billions of dollars over incurred inefficiencies is nothing compared to cockblocking the USN for good.

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    Post  mnztr Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:00 am

    Some ships are for sure, but I think the really big ones have armed guards on them these days. Also they tend to stay away from the risky sea routes. I doubt the USN would mess with ships under Russian protection. Russia has sooooo many ways to retaliate.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:19 am

    An icebreaker would be a pretty useless type of ship if the only ships that could follow them through the ice they have broken a path through have to be ice rated ships.

    At minus 60 degrees water freezes quickly but ice is a good insulator so the surface water might freeze quickly but it wont be metres thick in the 1 minute before the next ship sails through the ice broken by the ship in front of it.

    If fuel is so damn important their bigger nuclear powered ice breakers could tow quite a few ships behind them and those towed ships could shut down their main engines and just have small generators running to power the lights and heating...

    The rail network across Russia has enormous potential for shifting cargo... a rail line through north korea through south korea could result in Japanese goods being put on a ship and taken to South Korea where it gets on a train and travels north through north korea and into Russia and then across Russia to the EU.

    The most urgent stuff could fly of course, but rail is a good way of transporting things too as long as your rail service is modern and capable and motivated like the Russian rail service is.

    It sounds like truck drivers and sailors get more say than railroad workers in the US... certainly here in NZ more things get moved by truck than train which can't be as efficient... things have to go by truck eventually so often rail loses out because sometimes it is easier to just leave it on a truck and take it to the destination instead of putting on a truck and taking it to a train and then getting it to the right area and then putting it back on another truck to get it to the address.

    It could be made much more efficient... perhaps a nuclear powered train could make it affordable... you hear about electric buses and electric cars but not so much electric trucks.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:14 pm

    ..Japanese goods being put on a ship and taken to South Korea where it gets on a train and travels north through north korea and into Russia and then across Russia to the EU.
    If NK & SK roads remain separated, goods could be unloaded at Nakhodka &/ Vladivostok & loaded on trains. Also, if roads/tunnels/bridges r built connecting the  mainland/Transsib with Sakhalin & then Hokkaido, ships won't be needed at all to move goods between Japan & Europe.
    China-Iran pact paves way for alternative to Suez
    Multiple overland railway corridors across Eurasia featuring cargo trains crammed with freight – the most iconic of which is arguably Chongqing-Duisburg – are a key plank of Belt and Road. The extraordinary confluence between the signing of the Iran-China strategic partnership deal is bound to fuel a renewed drive to Eurasian intergration.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:23 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
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    Post  mnztr Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:34 pm

    There is alot of talk of electric trucks in the industry, of course Tesla is front an center but also several other companies. The idea of Tesla combining its EV tech with self driving tech is incredibly enticing. But even without drivers, the energy consumption, tires, etc if trucks would make them far less enticing.

    When an ice breaker cuts though ice it does not vapourize it, it still leaves a lot large chunks of ice in its path, so if the ship is not ice rated, it has to go very slow.  Time = money. I sometimes wonder if an icebreaker can be built that is like a virtual dock. The large ship would fit into a V dock and actually tie up. There would be rubber everywhere like on a tug boat, The the ice breaker would have pumpjets so the drive can be at the outer edges of the dock. It would slip on the ship  somewhat like a condom. (some ideas only men can come up with lol)

    Kinda like this but much larger so that the cargo ship replaces the TUG and the bow section is actually a full on icebreaker:

    https://www.rivieramm.com/opinion/opinion/removable-bow-converts-a-tug-into-an-icebreaker-21678
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    Post  GarryB Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:37 am

    There is alot of talk of electric trucks in the industry, of course Tesla is front an center but also several other companies. The idea of Tesla combining its EV tech with self driving tech is incredibly enticing. But even without drivers, the energy consumption, tires, etc if trucks would make them far less enticing.

    The condition of the roads going from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok mean rail makes more sense because Truck really is not an option in such a case.

    Batteries would also suffer in the very low temperatures and the problems of needing electricity for heat would drain the batteries much faster than in other places.

    I would think in Aussie they could design and build a huge solar panel to sit on the top of the trucks trailers connected to the AC to keep the trailers and cab cooler than they would normally be for free.

    When an ice breaker cuts though ice it does not vapourize it, it still leaves a lot large chunks of ice in its path, so if the ship is not ice rated, it has to go very slow.

    For it to save 14 days transit time it can't be that slow... or do you think they are doing all this without taking into account the ice...

    I sometimes wonder if an icebreaker can be built that is like a virtual dock. The large ship would fit into a V dock and actually tie up. There would be rubber everywhere like on a tug boat, The the ice breaker would have pumpjets so the drive can be at the outer edges of the dock. It would slip on the ship somewhat like a condom. (some ideas only men can come up with lol)

    It think there are obvious problems like where in a condom do you fit pumpjets and fuel and if it fits over a ship then each ship would need one... so wouldn't it be cheaper just to make all ships icebreakers?

    Icebreakers create a path through ice fields for other ships to sail through... small chunks of ice will not damage a ship and most container ships are rather long and ice floats so it is unlikely a chunk of ice could be dragged under the hull and remain there for the full length of the 200m long ship and present itself to the props to do damage.

    Most likely it would have floated out to the side.

    Icebreakers are generally designed to render the ice into rather small pieces.

    Designed for tugs is one thing but designed for long range transport ships is another.

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    Post  mnztr Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:15 am

    I wonder if that 14 days saving applies to the winter or just during the summer. When they break ice they slow to 5-7 knots typically The Yamal tankers travel at 5.5 knots at ARC7 conditions and 19.5K in open water. Icebreaking bows are not hydrodynamicly efficient, this is why many of the commercial  ice breaking ships actually reverse when they are in ice breaking mode and have the ice breaking bow on the rear. Typically the ship only needs icebreaker support for a short distance, it can set its engines to run slghtly faster then the docks pumpjet. So there is constant pressure.

    When you compare the cost of the Yamal tankers vs the ones Qatar uses (both Korean built) the ice class adds more then 110M/unit cost (190M vs 300M) that is a massive cost difference. Also plowing through ice uses a lot of fuel..(thankfully cheap LNG)

    Types of ice can damage ship varies wildly as the properties of different types of ice vary. If you get a chunk of old glacial ice its like steel!!


    Last edited by mnztr on Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:17 pm; edited 2 times in total
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:52 am

    if built, the Kra Canal across Thailand would save a few days sailing time; if Myanmar is pacified, containers could be sent by rail from China & loaded on ships there, also saving time.
    The NSR, even if ice free all year, could never completely replace the Suez Canal.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:22 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:if built, the Kra Canal across Thailand would save a few days sailing time; if Myanmar is pacified, containers could be sent by rail from China & loaded on ships there, also saving time.
    The NSR, even if ice free all year, could never completely replace the Suez Canal.

    The NSR would replace the Suez based on destination etc good moving from Asia to Europe would be faster.

    Also, no one ever said the NSR would ever fully replace the Suez in all ways, there is no one shipping route that is the answer to all.

    Dude, you are so clueless about so many things......your carrier without propulsion idea tho is still your finest moment.

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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 am

    If climate change forecasts are accurate then the Arctic could be ice free for longer and longer periods, and if that is the case thousands of billions of tons of methane locked in permafrost in Siberia is going to be released making things much much warmer.

    There are many theories that rather than gradual change there will be tipping points, which when crossed heat things up to the next threshold.

    The deltas of major rivers carry plant material that is just dumped into the sea where it settles and rots and forms lime and methane.

    The methane is locked into the sea bed but as sea temperatures rise that methane is being released accelerating the process.

    When they talk about temperature over the whole planet a few degrees has an enormous effect... an average of 10 degrees colder and you have ice sheets over New York 3km thick and you can walk from Asia to America.

    Temperature increases magnify things... it is not the ice caps melting that raises sea levels the most... warmer water is larger by volume than colder water...

    But I suspect it is too late to change now... a case of too little too late... if they really want green transport then nuclear powered cargo ships would be the ideal solution with zero carbon emissions...

    From a Russian perspective whether it is by rail or sea the North Sea Route, or the trans siberian rail line... both are the shortest fastest route from Asia to the EU with no borders or different countries waters or territory to navigate...

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