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    Russian population

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    Azi

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    Post  Azi Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:07 am

    Mir wrote:@Azi

    I still don't see anything remotely close to the figures you and Karl mention from Rosstat?

    You say you know the numbers and that the stats from Worldometer's wrong? The stats you show below from Rosstats seems to indicate 1.7 which is the same as from Worldometer? Interesting!
    Where is the 1,7 coming from? You thnk I'm a american or chinese troll and i have dreamt about 1,5???

    Please check it out by yourself if you don'T believe me. My link seems dead at moment but Rostat is online....you can check the numbers by yourself. 1,5 was the number for 2020...i was not refering to prior numbers.


    Last edited by Azi on Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:19 am; edited 2 times in total
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    Azi

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    Post  Azi Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:13 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Check dates.

    As well, statistics uses their calculation method based upon birth rates per year and the numbers rosstat provides in that. So depends on how they calculate it between them. Statistica uses same sources.  Rosstat hasn't done a census since 2010, it's presumed it's tough estimates all around.

    I know here in Canada a census is done every couple of years. Russia hasn't done one in a long time.

    Death rates will decline in near future since baby boomer era starts to die off naturally.  The Covid scare did no help though for even the people who want children.
    Births must or at least should be registered...Russia is not Africa!!! The same for deaths. I hope Rostat is doing the business right and correct...if not send them to Siberia!

    You are right with the whole population...sometimes it's a mystery and the correct data are available after a census (people move in and out, migrants etc...).

    Hey...by the way I was not negative about the 1,5 in 2020, because the numbers the years before were much higher and after this Covid chaos year will be higher again for sure. And 1,5 is exact the middle of the EU for 2018, so Russia would perform in this statistic in the upper half.

    And as I wrote...the main problem for demographics is the hedonistic western lifestyle. Get rid off it and everything will be better...and the population will be happier too!
    Regular
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    Post  Regular Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:21 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:

    Invite several million Europeans, Americans to live in Russia, if necessary declare for them their own national districts within Siberian regions

    I don't see that many westerners moving to Russia until Russia can offer at least similar or better salaries than the Western countries.

    The only source that Russia realistically can get more population from is the FSU countries. And frankly I don't want to see Russia get any more Uzbeks or Tajiks or Azeris that it currently has.

    The only lasting solution for Russia's demographic challenges is to somehow get ethnic Russian women to have more babies. Right now there are very small number of women in childbearing age in Russia due to collapsed birth rate in the 1990s.  Those bigger age groups born in the 1980s are passing their fertile years and the younger age groups born in the 1990s and early 2000s are very small in comparison. Because of this there are smaller and smaller number of potential mothers in Russia each year.

    And with these women in those small age groups having very few children themselves we are witnessing Russian demographics falling off the cliff. The population fell by more than 700,000 people last year alone. This year the decline could be even bigger. We are going back to 1990s.

    I can see a whole bunch of people from Europe and America running to Russia from the Globalhomo craziness and racial tensions. Mainly traditional and rural-minded people. Let them buy some cheap land in Siberia, off they go. Salaries are not a problem, neither is even the language, if their ambitions are just to have their own farmstead and be left to their own devices.

    FSU countries are a constant source. If anything I'm kind of more worried about getting more Ukrainians as opposed to Uzbeks, Tajiks and Azeris; they could potentially try to sell out Russia much as they did their ancestral homeland. At the very least I know some Ukrainians here who have very anti-Putin views.

    Imports can also happen from the student population as I mentioned. Russia at the moment is in something like 6th place worldwide by the amount of foreign students - albeit most of them are from FSU countries as well. This is set to expand over the next few years owing to massive investments into many huge new university campuses and so on.

    And about raising fertility rates of Russian women - of course that is the main thing. Along with lowering mortality rates. I've already talked about how.

    Azeris, tadjiks and Ukrainians shouldn't be welcome in Russia at all. I know they do dirtiest and low paid jobs mostly, but they bring so much crime and their own country problems in a baggage with them. Especially Ukrainians. Even the ones who hate Russia come there to work and with their presence alone they pose a national threat.

    Also, no Euros or Americans, they will bring their disgusting globohomo with them, even the ones running away from it are tainted. Even political dissidents there are just different shade of GH. Not to mention that westerners have terrible genes (inbred brits, irish and southern Americans), they are not suited to cold weather, their health is compromised by GMO and fast foods. To be honest, it would be burden and enormous security risk to keep them. Imagine how easy it would be for CIA to infiltrate there or use NATO/EU/USA pressure to bully Russia by claiming that their rights are infringed and etc.

    Plenty of Russians live abroad that are pro-Russia, not just liberals. Also, I know plenty of liberals who as the time went changed their thinking (it seems that allegiances change with the age and maturity and it seems that homesickness is a special thing for Russians) I think Russia should create a Russian card that would help expats to come back, give them some social support and it would be much cheaper than moulding some westerner fed on McDonalds grub to acclimatise to Russia too.

    And to raise the fertility - Russia needs to ban all non-health/rape related abortions and then promote anti-alcohol campaigns. Culture of drinking is still quite bad and still can be improved.
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    ALAMO

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:29 am

    The 1.5 rate is correct and came from Rosstat directly.
    It was already there in 2019, you can find it in table 2.2.2 of BRICS Joint Statistical Publication 2020.
    What came up as a surprise, was again official figures from Rosstat, with 146.2 mln citizens as of Jan 2021. It was the biggest decline in 15 years, 510 000.
    Still, nothing unusual. Poland faced the biggest death rate since WWII, a 129 000 in 2020. The birth rate was the lowest in 15 years, too.
    Similar data were presented for UK if I am not mistaken.


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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:08 pm

    GarryB wrote:Over population is a problem in itself... it is only a matter of time before issues like pollution including the enormous mass of rubbish and sewerage in the worlds oceans become the big next problem and part of the solution for that problem and also the effects on the worlds food supply and the worlds fresh water supply will be population reduction.

    In Bangladesh - sure. But Bangladesh is a sovereign country, it can decide on what to do by itself.

    It's not a problem in Russia

    When farms were mainly run with manual labour then large families made sense... especially when the mortality rate was high, but these days the majority of people in the west living in cities... most more than 70%, so the need for big families has gone and in fact children are a financial burden on a couple.

    The birthrates in rural areas are always higher than in cities. Because none of those conditions have really gone away. Large farms are a lot more automated now, but you still need an extra pair of hands for all sorts of things. And if speaking about homesteads and private farmsteads, all the more so - you need kids to feed the cows, tend to the crops, conduct repairs, operate machinery, and everything else.

    It's not for nothing that in Marxist theory the source of any people was always considered as the village

    When the USSR collapsed so did the entire rural economy and all sorts of support measures. People migrated to the cities and towns en masse and the birthrate plummeted, albeit it was already steadily decreasing before.

    Pretty soon the addition of artificial beings is going to massively complicate things... having one kid to look after you in your old age makes sense, but having one probably means a spoiled brat who doens't want to give up years of their life looking after you... or what if they get hit by a bus and killed, so having a couple of kids might seem a better choice, but there are no guarantees.

    The days when robots start to take over... and I don't mean sci fi robots that you can't tell are not human, but a simpler robot that can carry things and hold things and measure things... in many ways electric scooters for old people give them mobility and are a type of robot assistant already.

    The Japanese are so advanced with such robots because of their aging population...

    Technological progress is a constant feature but it's hard to imagine how sentient robots will make their way into the rural outback any time soon. They will be expensive for a long, long time and there are far more profitable uses for them.
    It's cheaper, and probably more rewarding - to just have another kid.

    An ageing population and an educated one seems to create a situation where people start living more isolated lives... they can't rape or murder you through your phone...

    It's more a function of the laws in the country, its social and economic order

    If you promote and support rural settlement in your economy, you help large families with housing in the cities, you stay away from LGBT craziness, you create parks, public spaces and free sports facilities & objects, you build up all sorts of necessary infrastructure for parents such as schools, kinder-gardens and so on, you enforce law & order in the country and allow women to feel safe at night, you create affordable mortgage schemes and well-paying jobs within the country, and in the smaller towns as well, that allow a family to support themselves and live comfortably
    - then you can achieve higher birthrates, and a society where people are encouraged to socialize, and find a partner in their 20s rather than in their 30s.

    If you don't do that or ignore these things then yes you can end up with Japan, or Germany, or Spain where 15% of the youth now identify as LGBT, or whatever.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    par far

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    Post  par far Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:44 pm

    jhelb wrote:Germany had record number of births this year. But guess what ...most of these kids were born to colored immigrants like Africans and Asians.

    This is not something that should be tolerated in Russia. Already cities after cities across Russia are being filled up by Central Asians. These immigrants tend to have very high birth rate.



    I read about this and said Germany is fucked.

    There is a reason the EU cocksuckers are going after Hungary.

    I think I the Russian population will increase with all the things the government has done.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:54 pm

    I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline. It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west
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    Post  par far Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:00 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

    I hope to god that Russia stays away from immigrants( I read on the Stalker Zone, that when Russia locked down and closed the borders and sent most of immigrants home), that the crime rate in Russia went down. And I think the government saw this.

    I think the Russian population will increase because the Russian government has made so many positive changes in helping raising families. The free hot meals in schools, tax breaks for large families(I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes), support for single mothers and fathers and various other things, on top of what was already in place.

    I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

    China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

    The west is justing going down the toilet, maybe it is meant to be this way.


    Last edited by par far on Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:20 pm; edited 3 times in total
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:12 pm

    Regular wrote:Azeris, tadjiks and Ukrainians shouldn't be welcome in Russia at all. I know they do dirtiest and low paid jobs mostly, but they bring so much crime and their own country problems in a baggage with them. Especially Ukrainians. Even the ones who hate Russia come there to work and with their presence alone they pose a national threat.

    These are 3 different groups of immigrants you're talking about

    Azeris - typical Caucasus diaspora, increases wealth quickly mostly through trade and also some corrupt schemes, assume political positions (already Novosibirsk is run by Azeris), and support their own nation back home.
    But there are good sides to them; Azeris are quite civilized, they come out with a lot of professionals and specialists too, they're not as opposed to intermarriage with Russians as many Caucasian peoples are, and their businessmen tend to invest in Russia as well.

    Tajiks, mainly manual laborers, work in construction a lot, as well as the low-skilled menial jobs. They do have a criminal under-class, but you can't compare it with the Algerians in France or anything like that. Most are just hardworking people.
    The good thing is that they integrate quite well when settling among Russians, and also intermarry. Some of them settle in the villages.

    Ukrainians, tend to range from the lowest-skilled jobs to the highest skilled jobs. The most powerful woman in the country, the speaker of the Federation Council - Valentina Matviyenko - is Western Ukrainian.
    They naturally assimilate mostly among the Russian population, and many of them are supporters of Russia. But there is definitely a nationalist and sell-out liberal core amongst them, which is a minus.
    Sometimes you have some low-rate criminal elements coming from the Ukraine who aren't used to living in a country where petty theft and so on is punished - but it's a minor problem.

    Also, no Euros or Americans, they will bring their disgusting globohomo with them, even the ones running away from it are tainted. Even political dissidents there are just different shade of GH. Not to mention that westerners have terrible genes (inbred brits, irish and southern Americans), they are not suited to cold weather, their health is compromised by GMO and fast foods. To be honest, it would be burden and enormous security risk to keep them. Imagine how easy it would be for CIA to infiltrate there or use NATO/EU/USA pressure to bully Russia by claiming that their rights are infringed and etc.

    I tend to believe not in taint, but in immunization  Smile The virus attacks the body, and it can kill. But if it doesn't kill you, then it makes you stronger
    I seriously doubt such people coming to Russia would be more 'tainted' by liberal values than many Navalny supporters are in the big cities. Nor would they be any more inclined towards co-operating with foreign intelligence; believe me we already have plenty of our own people ready for that.

    Plenty of Russians live abroad that are pro-Russia, not just liberals. Also, I know plenty of liberals who as the time went changed their thinking (it seems that allegiances change with the age and maturity and it seems that homesickness is a special thing for Russians) I think Russia should create a Russian card that would help expats to come back, give them some social support and it would be much cheaper than moulding some westerner fed on McDonalds grub to acclimatise to Russia too.

    What about the Russians that Lithuania has been inviting? A bunch of right-wing liberal reactionaries. Or the Russians that Latvia attracts, Israel, Britain and all these other places, that worship wealth.
    I'd rather those Russians stay there to be honest.

    The ones who accept Russia for what it is without trying to set themselves up as intermediaries of foreign capital for Western interests in their home countries are welcome to come back of course

    And to raise the fertility - Russia needs to ban all non-health/rape related abortions and then promote anti-alcohol campaigns. Culture of drinking is still quite bad and still can be improved.

    Banning abortions is a bad idea.

    The ones with money will simply do the abortions in Germany, while the ones without money will do it illegally and unsafely.

    Anti-alchohol campaigns aren't bad, but how would you really go about doing that? Banning alchohol?
    It's better to just promote a healthy lifestyle and sports, and that's what Russia has been doing pretty much since Putin came to power, to his credit.
    Also drinking habits have already massively shifted from vodka to beer and that's already helped with mortality figures. Drunk driving is being punished and checked for more, etc...

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:55 pm

    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

    I hope to god that Russia stays away from immigrants( I read on the Stalker Zone, that when Russia locked down and closed the borders and sent most of immigrants home), that the crime rate in Russia went down. And I think the government saw this.

    I think the Russian population will increase because the Russian government has made so many positive changes in helping raising families. The free hot meals in schools, tax breaks for large families(I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes), support for single mothers and fathers and various other things, on top of what was already in place.

    I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

    China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

    The west is justing going down the toilet, maybe it is meant to be this way.

    The TFR increase between 2000 and 2020 was the direct result of the improvement of living conditions in Russia. It was not driven
    by immigrants or Muslims or some other trope. The drop over the last year is directly related to Covid-19. The TFR is the only thing
    I would look at since the mortality variations mean nothing. Longevity in Russia has gone up since the 1990s. Men live 70 years on
    average after living only 58 years in the mid-late 1990s. The longevity progression is clear and is also driven by improving conditions.
    So the death rate will drop off while the birth rate will not. Ideally a TFR of over 2 is needed, but 1.82 was moving towards 2 and
    I think it will resume this trend.

    I think Hungarian style tax breaks for young families are needed. Crank up the taxes on corporations and resource exports to offset
    any income tax reductions.

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    par far

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    Post  par far Mon Jul 05, 2021 7:03 pm

    kvs wrote:
    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I think Russia's population will stagnate. Not grow but not decline.  It will mostly grow due to migrants coming in. While its been mostly post Soviet states, we may see an inflow from non former Soviet states whom are more interested in Russia's mix of concervative and liberal values while not being insane like it is here in the west

    I hope to god that Russia stays away from immigrants( I read on the Stalker Zone, that when Russia locked down and closed the borders and sent most of immigrants home), that the crime rate in Russia went down. And I think the government saw this.

    I think the Russian population will increase because the Russian government has made so many positive changes in helping raising families. The free hot meals in schools, tax breaks for large families(I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes), support for single mothers and fathers and various other things, on top of what was already in place.

    I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

    China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

    The west is justing going down the toilet, maybe it is meant to be this way.

    The TFR increase between 2000 and 2020 was the direct result of the improvement of living conditions in Russia.   It was not driven
    by immigrants or Muslims or some other trope.    The drop over the last year is directly related to Covid-19.  The TFR is the only thing
    I would look at since the mortality variations mean nothing.   Longevity in Russia has gone up since the 1990s.   Men live 70 years on
    average after living only 58 years in the mid-late 1990s.   The longevity progression is clear and is also driven by improving conditions.
    So the death rate will drop off while the birth rate will not.    Ideally a TFR of over 2 is needed, but 1.82 was moving towards 2 and
    I think it will resume this trend.  

    I think Hungarian style tax breaks for young families are needed.   Crank up the taxes on corporations and resource exports to offset
    any income tax reductions.



    Very well said, I think natural birth will go up in Russia.
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:55 am


    Technological progress is a constant feature but it's hard to imagine how sentient robots will make their way into the rural outback any time soon.

    You are confusing androids for robots... there are already plenty of robots used on farms... modern tractors use sat navigation for ploughing and for fertilising and for insecticide distribution... they almost drive themselves... and ensure patches don't get missed or done twice...

    There are automated cow milking machines... but nothing that looks like an artificial human as I said.

    Working on a farm on your own can be dangerous.... there are often cases of farmers found here up the high country... nobody saw them for a week so someone went looking and found them pinned under a tractor or something... sometimes still alive but most often dead because it takes so long for people to notice they haven't seen them around and start to get worried.

    The point is that machinery that allows fewer or one person to do a job that previously took rather more is already being used in some places (not suggesting they are used everywhere) and that is only going to increase and become more common.

    (I like what Hungary is doing, if you have 3 or more children, you pay little taxes)

    The biggest problem in the west is that the rich pay accountants to use loopholes so they pay little to no tax... and these are the people earning the most who can afford to pay the most... I fully agree on tax reductions for people with large families... I come from a large family but do not intend on having a big one of my own at any stage.

    Personally I think being a full time mother to more than one child should be considered a full time job... which it was when I was young. These days one salary is not enough to afford to pay for what we need to just get by.

    It is like big powerful sports clubs who pay one or two players huge money, but the average wage is much much less... most companies in the west are the same but it has nothing to do with skill or performance... the owner gets the huge money and the top executives too and the rest get minimum wage or as close to that as they can negotiate.

    It would not be so bad if the bare essentials were cheap and affordable like food and rent.

    In some cultures newly married couples live with the inlaws essentially rent free and save up to buy either a new house of the inlaws house so they can buy a smaller house for the two of them to live in. Not the west, though that will change. House prices (especially for a single person) is going to force change.

    I hope things are taken a little further and parents that 3 or more children are given discount on flying inside Russia, this way the large families can have vacations and Russian tourism will get a boost and it encourages people to have large families.

    Good idea... you could create a domestic family oriented tourism industry that caters to big families.

    China has the best immigration policy, it is amazing, how fast they can get their own people to have babies and it is amazing how fast they can lock things up immigration wise.

    Things are so much easier to decide when you don't have to win popular opinion on something and keep getting voted in long enough to fully implement programmes that can take a while to take effect.

    But if it doesn't kill you, then it makes you stronger

    Sounds great, but is not true in every sense... if a shark bites both your legs off then you arms will get stronger simply moving yourself around, but that does not make you a physically stronger and more capable person. It probably stops you from being a wuss.... it likely gives you an inner strength... a strength of character... possibly the attitude that a great white shark couldn't kill me, so I am pretty strong.

    Just as an example Polio put an American president into a wheelchair and did eventually lead to his death.

    Banning abortions is a bad idea.

    The ones with money will simply do the abortions in Germany, while the ones without money will do it illegally and unsafely.

    Totally agree... it never stops the practise and it never leads to anything good... even if you have organisations like the catholic church who takes on what become essentially orphans or unwanted children... the stories of abuse and neglect and in fact children trafficking... there is no other term for it.... making money selling children.

    Obviously there were plenty with the right intention, but I have had friends before they had kids who said they would never use a TV as a babysitter and within months Frozen comes on and gets replayed 100 times because mommy needs a break... and to be fair the first 50 times mommy watches with the kid.

    I don't throw that in their faces because I fully understand what they are going through... being an uncle and great uncle you get glimpses of what having children is like... but of course it is different when they are your own... in both good and bad ways... it is a life sentence just waiting for that call.... crashed the car... caught stealing... etc etc and they are not the worst ones you dread.


    Anti-alchohol campaigns aren't bad, but how would you really go about doing that? Banning alchohol?

    There are always people not happy with real life, and banning alcohol won't fix the problem because it is so easy to make... but introduces the problem of easy to make wrong and kill friends and family and anyone who might buy it.

    It is funny but here in New Zealand there are people who want to ban smoking but also want to legalise weed... not sure how that is going to work...

    Vaping is turning out to be as harmful as smoking but with more immediate effects... never heard of anyone dying from smoking a cigarette or cigar, but people are dying from Vaping... the irony is that Vaping is seen by some as a healthy alternative for heavy smokers, but even with heavy smokers it took years to develop cancer and die, but with vaping it seems it can happen much faster...

    Crank up the taxes on corporations and resource exports to offset
    any income tax reductions.

    They don't need to crank up any taxes... just remove the loop holes so that the richest people and the largest companies actually pay their fair share of taxes and they will get a lot more money to fix problems.

    BTW optimism is not a bad thing unless it is blind optimism. Russia has gotten through a lot of bad stuff in its history and a lot of people might actually be worried that it is in a much better place than it has really ever been before, and so they compensate... here where I live if we have a warmer day in winter like today was we don't enjoy it... we go around telling each other that it is probably about to snow.

    OK for weather, but not healthy for growth and development of an economy and a culture.
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    Post  ALAMO Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:54 am

    kvs wrote:
    I think Hungarian style tax breaks for young families are needed.   Crank up the taxes on corporations and resource exports to offset
    any income tax reductions.

    With 13% rate flat PIT for all residents up to 5mlnRUB annual income - that is almost 60k EUR - further breaks are hardly needed.
    This is one of the lowest rates in Europe, comparable to tax paradises like Cyprus.

    Russia uses several targeted tools to benefit families with children, the most important being maternity capital.
    The thing is played in lots of countries, the only thing that amazes in Russia, is its value.
    It was started in 2007, with 250k RUB for every second child, and raised on a yearly basis. In 2020, however, a big change was applied to the program, and every single child gets this payment, too, totaling 466k RUB and rising, plus there was additional payment for any next one. This year, it is 5.5k EUR for the first, and additional 1.9k EUR for second one, and any that follows.
    Maternity leave is an obvious thing for all civilized countries, so probably need to be explained to Muricans only dunno
    When you register the fact of pregnancy, there is a one-time additional benefit.
    There is a monthly regular child benefit for the first 18 months.
    There are special assets applied to any child that starts education.
    There are special assets applied to any family with children to pay the interests of the mortgage loan.
    Russia is a social welfare country, with tools and assets applied to improve the quality of living for all its citizens.
    And this is a general approach that Putin underlines each and any time when talking about government policy.

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    Post  franco Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:39 am

    Rosstat explained why the population census will begin on October 15

    The proposal to postpone the All-Russian Population Census from October 1 to October 15 was made on July 23 at a scheduled meeting with the participation of regional leaders, as well as federal ministries and departments, which was chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, Rosstat said.

    The department explained that this is due to the fact that the census will require the resources involved in organizing a single voting day on September 21.

    "These are two projects that are important for the country and each of us, but each of them has its own characteristics, its own organization algorithm," said Pavel Malkov, head of Rosstat. According to him, it is necessary to re-equip the premises, establish an IT infrastructure that ensures data protection and transfer of the collected information to the census control center at Rosstat. In addition, many of those who were previously employed in the elections will work as census takers. It will take them time to rest and switch to new tasks. "The census will require a full concentration of forces to solve the main task - to collect the most accurate and reliable information about the demographic situation in the country and the state of the housing stock," says Malkov.

    The draft government decree on the postponement of the All-Russian Population Census by two weeks is posted for discussion on regulation.gov.ru .

    According to the document, it will take place until November 14, and in hard-to-reach settlements, its terms may stretch until December 20. Their list must be approved by August 15th.

    It will also be possible to take part in the census on public services until November 8 inclusive, the Federal State Statistics Service specified.

    https://rg.ru/2021/07/24/v-rosstate-obiasnili-pochemu-perepis-naseleniia-nachnetsia-15-oktiabria.html
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jul 25, 2021 5:53 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    Russia uses several targeted tools to benefit families with children, the most important being maternity capital.
    The thing is played in lots of countries, the only thing that amazes in Russia, is its value.
    It was started in 2007, with 250k RUB for every second child, and raised on a yearly basis. In 2020, however, a big change was applied to the program, and every single child gets this payment, too, totaling 466k RUB and rising, plus there was additional payment for any next one. This year, it is 5.5k EUR for the first, and additional 1.9k EUR for second one, and any that follows.
    Maternity leave is an obvious thing for all civilized countries, so probably need to be explained to Muricans only dunno
    When you register the fact of pregnancy, there is a one-time additional benefit.
    There is a monthly regular child benefit for the first 18 months.
    There are special assets applied to any child that starts education.
    There are special assets applied to any family with children to pay the interests of the mortgage loan.
    Russia is a social welfare country, with tools and assets applied to improve the quality of living for all its citizens.
    And this is a general approach that Putin underlines each and any time when talking about government policy.

    I suspect what this will all lead to is random people who live in tents and rely on subsistence living to have as many kids as possible. Like the Chukchi, Evenks, people like that. Doesn't harm their lifestyle at all to have more kids, and the money is good. That's all fine, but they alone won't solve Russia's problems.

    Also families living in depopulating villages with no jobs at all and where everyone still drinks. Don't need much imagination there. Just **** and have kids, live off the payments. Typically everyone has their own home already and can rely on vegetable growing, hunting and fishing to eek out a living anyway. Hence the money is a huge bonus. In this case the situation though becomes more of a burden than a boon. Such settlements should be invested into properly and resuscitated. It's one thing to raise birthrates, but you also need a healthy environment and values in the place first and foremost. For that you need jobs.

    But I suspect in the cities, the support might make it easier to have 2 kids instead of 1, but not more than that. Because a modern family won't decide to have 3-4 kids, if there are barely any reasonably affordable apartments with 4-5 rooms available on the market.
    In St. Petersburg, you can find enough such large apartments dating back to pre-revolutionary times, but they're in the centre and expensive.
    In other major cities, you might have some of them from the days of Stalin-era housing projects, when large flats were created to serve as communal ones with several families sharing them at once; one family per room, with the kitchen and toilets being shared - and then over the last 30 years they got privatized, bought up from individual owners and consolidated into just large 5-6 room apartments. In St. Petersburg you have those too, and they're the most affordable option.
    In most provincial cities though, you simply wouldn't have any of these things to choose from at all (then again there, private houses can usually be constructed a lot closer to the center).

    And when it comes to new apartments built according to modern standards, the situation is worse. The vast majority of new apartment construction across Russia ranges from studio to 3-bedroom. Larger ones than that are only available in the elite housing segment.

    Large families are realistic, assuming modern-day conditions of one room per kid, only in the outer suburbs or countryside, where you can have as big a private home as you wish.

    So from this we can gather, that one of the main things is to stimulate the construction of larger apartments. Incentives for developers, subsidies for them, whatever else.

    The current trend of de-urbanization and remote working, accelerated during the pandemic, and should be studied further. Could lead to a revival of rural life, and an easier way to support a large family while maintaining a modern job and income.

    Mortgage rates also have to go down to closer to the European level. That problem will sort itself out. But the main thing is not at the cost of making housing as expensive relative to the average wage as in the major cities of Europe.

    One more thing - a 4-day working week will help. More time to enjoy life, and for parents to devote time to kids.
    Medvedev brought up the subject of 4-day working weeks a year or two ago. But that guy is a joke.
    In reality, our economy won't be able to handle such an innovation right now. Perhaps next decade we can, if we manage an average of 4-5% economic growth over the next 10 years, and continue moving to a more planned/state-investment economic model.

    Meanwhile in the West, some environmental NGO has already awarded Prince Harry and his wife an award, for limiting their family to no more than 2 kids. Shows what we should avoid.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:49 am

    We should consider the logic behind big families first.
    It was all about manpower. The biggest families were in the countryside because farming required all hands possible.
    A secondary cause is religion, with its influence on sexual life and sexual manners, anticonception etc.
    Both causes are more or less gone. The countryside population relocated to the cities, so the pressure for manpower was decreased either.
    The sexual revolution put an end to church domination in people's bedrooms.

    Depopulated villages is in fact an effect, not a cause. In all the advanced world, people had a tendency to relocate to bigger centers. There are empty villages all over any country in Europe, not yet Russia. Take a look at Italy's struggling to repopulate some areas. They are selling countryside homes for 1 euro, in Toscany, only to encourage people to live there. I saw that villages, full of old, decomposing homes. Just the same is in Spain, Germany ... on the Rugia Island who is left, is a pensioner. Sassnitz lost half of its population since the reunification of Germany.

    You are probably right, that we may witness some changes here, due to the pandemic influence on people's lives. Maybe there will be a revival of simple country living, less focused on material matters? Maybe people will decide to live in wooden barns, like in Murica, instead of building multiple generations' brick&concrete houses?

    The housing issue is an extremely crucial factor in this decision-making process. But only one of them.
    The 4-day working week would be a huge difference here.
    So is the accessibility to the kindergartens, schools etc. I saw a documentary about the school living of the Yakutia tribes, and it was a quite an interesting to experience. Kids are picked up on Mondays, sometimes by a helicopter Laughing , and located for a working week in dormitories. On Fridays afternoon, flying back to their homes and yurtas.

    The stability of the system is one of the very important factors, too. In well-educated societies, people do consider several factors before making a decision.

    Every single issue here, is a number in equation. As we may see, this equation has not been solved yet in all rich&well-being countries.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:31 pm

    ALAMO wrote:We should consider the logic behind big families first.
    It was all about manpower. The biggest families were in the countryside because farming required all hands possible.
    A secondary cause is religion, with its influence on sexual life and sexual manners, anticonception etc.
    Both causes are more or less gone. The countryside population relocated to the cities, so the pressure for manpower was decreased either.
    The sexual revolution put an end to church domination in people's bedrooms.

    Depopulated villages is in fact an effect, not a cause. In all the advanced world, people had a tendency to relocate to bigger centers. There are empty villages all over any country in Europe, not yet Russia. Take a look at Italy's struggling to repopulate some areas. They are selling countryside homes for 1 euro, in Toscany, only to encourage people to live there. I saw that villages, full of old, decomposing homes. Just the same is in Spain, Germany ... on the Rugia Island who is left, is a pensioner. Sassnitz lost half of its population since the reunification of Germany.

    It's not that I disagree

    It's just that I think there are other factors at play that haven't been taken into account. Including the same material ones

    Ask people, why did you move from the village to the city? You'll hear the same sort of answers
    "no jobs there"
    "no modern living standards there"
    "full of alcoholics and abusers there"
    "more exciting, more opportunities"
    "to study"

    But most of these are solvable issues. A lot depends on the economic system and its demand for what the rural economy produces, on the development of transport and logistics, on the presence of quality of life measures and social support structures in these places, and so on.

    The revival of agriculture is a big thing, it gives the rural population the chance to earn a decent salary from their living, and even a smaller amount of money goes a long way there where food and land are both cheap.

    But not only agriculture, dairy production, etc... is possible. Low-scale production in workshops, artisanship, crafts - all of this is possible to make a good living out of as a sole trader or small co-operative enterprise. Yet where are the grants and support for people doing that? We already have all the incubators and business angels and the rest of this stuff waiting to invest in IT start-ups and all sorts of small urban businesses. To some extent we have them for rural businesses as well, but the system should be developed further.

    Then we have remote-working, which is coming into its own now. Yet another income source for people who prefer to live in the countryside, and probably the biggest one yet.

    Moving on - the availability of goods, their timeliness in delivery and keeping the cost of them down. A lot of this is being worked on with the construction of logistics centres and the improvement of roads, railroads, river transport and so on. The rise of such conglomerates as Wildberries, Ozon and other e-commerce platforms, that can offer and deliver a range of goods to an increasing amount of points across the country. And not only deliver to the villages, but also sell their unique goods as well for them.

    Then we have the transport links. Especially faster rail services. Also, river-going catamarans, and cars on modern highways. This decreases the appeal of actually living in a city, because the city itself is increasingly accessible when you decide you do need its services/nightlife/whatever.
    If the settlement has its own railway station, then it's even feasible to commute to work or study in the city, and return in the evening. The faster the rail, the greater the radius of feasible villages around a major city.

    And then finally the social services and infrastructure in place. Gasification, beautification and landscaping, schools, medical outposts, local libraries and cultural centres. All this is being invested into at the moment, it helps maintain a modern required standard, and gives people community pursuits and things to do in their off-time.

    You are probably right, that we may witness some changes here, due to the pandemic influence on people's lives. Maybe there will be a revival of simple country living, less focused on material matters? Maybe people will decide to live in wooden barns, like in Murica, instead of building multiple generations' brick&concrete houses?

    It's not about getting people to discard material matters, or come back to religion or whatever. There are people who prefer rural living on the basis of such idealism, but you can't count on just them.

    Religion itself is an effect rather than a cause, and will naturally be present more in rural populations. Religion was built for the peasants so to speak, and they have more use for its values.

    Rather the priority should be to raise the material standards of living in villages and small towns to that of major cities. It's not possible in all matters, but then in other matters such places will have advantages over the cities anyway. Nature, larger housing, motorsports maybe, whatever else.

    The housing issue is an extremely crucial factor in this decision-making process. But only one of them.
    The 4-day working week would be a huge difference here.
    So is the accessibility to the kindergartens, schools etc. I saw a documentary about the school living of the Yakutia tribes, and it was a quite an interesting to experience. Kids are picked up on Mondays, sometimes by a helicopter Laughing , and located for a working week in dormitories. On Fridays afternoon, flying back to their homes and yurtas.

    The stability of the system is one of the very important factors, too. In well-educated societies, people do consider several factors before making a decision.

    Actually, for these northern nomadic peoples, they're trying to develop remote learning courses at the moment as well, using the internet and laptops to connect to teachers. So their kids can learn while staying with their parents, for the most part. This also lessens the chance that their kids will abandon the lifestyle and join civilization - pretty crucial otherwise these cultures can die out.

    Every single issue here, is a number in equation. As we may see, this equation has not been solved yet in all rich&well-being countries.

    They're not trying to solve it. They're betting on immigration.

    Or robots and sex dolls in the case of Japan

    But when it comes to Russia, it has to be an innovator in this sphere, and figure the problem out. It has a lot of spare land and it needs to exploit it. It has to bank on its own existent population and them seeing something worth living for in the country and a secure environment for raising a family

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    Post  ALAMO Yesterday at 9:49 am

    To be honest, betting on immigration is not a bad solution to start with.
    Russia has a quite deep reservoir to dig in - it is a Russian-speaking minority from ex-SU states.
    I guess that would be 50+ mln people potential.
    Of course, they are not all interested in immigration, but if you apply an effective campaign, it can be an easier goal than changing the family structure.
    When I was doing research for immigrant labor, I was surprised by two factors. The first one, the fact that Russia is the biggest immigrant labor market in Europe, surpassing Germany by approx. 20%. The second one, how hard it was to find the data. It would be actually impossible for someone, who does not speak Russian. It is being done by purpose. To admit that more migrants run the Russian economy than in Germany is a blow to the political narration. "Russia produces nothing", so they obviously can't need a 12+ mln immigrant labor, do they?
    This immigrant work power is another possibility, but there is a hatch. Most of them are people from *stan republics, who barely integrate. Only some of them are smart enough to educate the Russian system, while the waste majority are OK with taking less paid, harder jobs that require no other skills rather than manual ones.
    Russia is playing that quite smart I must say.
    New immigration law requests living in the areas once influenced by Russia, speaking Russian, and knowledge of Russian cultural code. That is literally the whole of the Soviet Union, plus most of Poland if one is to be precise.
    Now, they are taking active measures with fighting illegal immigration, and diasporas - as the diaspora existence alone proves, that they don't want to integrate into the society.
    That should form an interim solution either.
    If you combine that with the political stabilization, improving economy, social welfare country as Putin defined it, the scale of progress, educational&health issues ... Russia would be really the last European country to be worried about.

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