The North Korea-US Confrontation

OminousSpudd wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:
Hopefully nothing stupid happens. If a war breakouts, big IF because it's unlikely, but if the U.S does a limited strike with spillover effects it will once again show that the Russians and the Chinesse are completely inept, weak and unable to prevent the U.S from stirring shit up at their borders without relatively major consequences as the U.S resides a whole continent apart. When will they get a clue?

Like a young boy growing up.....lessons, lessons, lessons....

Hopefully nothing gets out of hand.

In all honesty I am most concerned about the very real threat of nuclear retaliation to SK cities. To think that US ABM is in any state to prevent a nuclear strike is completely naive.

As for Russia, they couldn't care less. This is not their problem, and although it will be blatant aggression and completely illegal, there is nothing they can do to prevent it.
N. Korea will be safer under Chinese partition anyway.

Hey maybe a nuke will hit a US battlegroup, then everyone's happy.

A U.S battlegroup getting nuked in the ocean is replaceable. Just like their fleet in Hawaii after Pearl Harbor. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not.

Point blank the Russians and the Chinese in another dimension would posture at the U.N and rally their allies (for diplomatic support) and completely blockade the Korean peninsula with their navies. The reason? The threat to their national security posed by a strike by the United States on a border state that could unleash nuclear war right at their borders. But there are NO BALLS to be found - that's is the sad truth.

Leaving this up to Chinesse soft-power is extremely risky. The only reason China and Russia find themselves in this situation is that neither of them have set a precedent that messing in their backyard will not be allowed under any pretext. The americans did make it very clear during the Cuban missile crisis. That's how superpowers behave.

North Korea is its own country... Russia wont bother telling it what to do, and if China tries to tell it what to do it will more than likely dig in its heels and do the opposite.

The US can threaten all it likes... North Korea has no history of giving in to western threats... just like Putin does not.

If the US wants to threaten strikes on NK for nuclear tests then it had better back up these threats with some action or they will become a joke.

If they step too far then NK will strike back... whether at SK or US forces in the region.

I have no confidence in US ABM technology.

China and Russia not acting like children the way the US and the west acts like children when other powers step on their toes is no measure of super power status.

The US told central and south american states it would have their back and all that was ruined when the US backed the UK against Argentina in the 1982 war over the Malvinas.

I would like to know Garry B how can the Americans be able to attempt to kill the leader of North Korea with only the Naval Seals which I believe is a small force and be able to get past the entire North Korean military which has that entire country secured? I know they took out Bin Ladin but he didn't have an entire military as robust as North Korea protecting him.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/791162/US-Navy-Seal-team-Kim-Jong-un-Osama-bin-Laden-North-Korea-South-Korea-Trump

North Korea, despite her bluster and possession of actual nuclear weapons is not a competitor militarily for a power with a full blown stand-off capability such as US Navy. Once nuclear weapons are factored out of the equation, the only way North Korea may respond to US aggression is to launch a massive land invasion of South Korea. That is it.

That is the only weapon in Pyongyang's arsenal which can be seriously considered, the rest? North Korean Armed Forces are simply antiquated and are no contest for Carl Winson's group. North Korea doesn't have means to even reach this CBG and, unless some bizarre confluence of conditions allows it, North Korean Air Defense and Air Force will be destroyed within 48 to 72 hours by Carl Winson's air wing. Realistically, this could be a turkey shoot but that is precisely why North Korea was chosen as the next bogey--military weakness in modern warfare. It is obvious that Pentagon thinks that it can control escalation. I, however, don't think so and I base my assumptions on the "credit history" of US political and military leadership.

Once North Korea decides to attack South and US forces in South Korea get embroiled in the mayhem, which will follow, the dynamics may change dramatically. US hopes, using North Korea as punching bag, to put China in the place Washington thinks it is appropriate, but what could reaction of Beijing be I can only speculate. US cannot impress Russia with her military and, rather embarrassing, Tomahawk strikes, but it seems that starting from the false flag "chemical attack" in Syria and punitive action, Trump, and those who "advise" him on military strategy, kept China in mind. China may (I am not saying that she was) have been "impressed" and there is no denial here that US, for now, still have a bit of a grasp if not both of China's cojones

I would like to know Garry B how can the Americans be able to attempt to kill the leader of North Korea with only the Naval Seals which I believe is a small force and be able to get past the entire North Korean military which has that entire country secured? I know they took out Bin Ladin but he didn't have an entire military as robust as North Korea protecting him.

I would say UK newspaper talking shit...

If they do try to take out the glorious leader of NK they will likely use a cruise missile attack or a stealth UCAV attack to try to do it.

GarryB wrote:

I would like to know Garry B how can the Americans be able to attempt to kill the leader of North Korea with only the Naval Seals which I believe is a small force and be able to get past the entire North Korean military which has that entire country secured? I know they took out Bin Ladin but he didn't have an entire military as robust as North Korea protecting him.

I would say UK newspaper talking shit...

If they do try to take out the glorious leader of NK they will likely use a cruise missile attack or a stealth UCAV attack to try to do it.

north korea still have a coastal navy and special forces and radar that can detect the navy seals. I think you need to explain it to me. I get the impression that the Seals are going to secretly be deployed on the ground in north korea but the NK military is too organized for that to happened. I know that are not as advanced as the US but they are strong enough to deter the Seals. North Korea is not some impoverished African nation without a navy and radar.

north korea still have a coastal navy and special forces and radar that can detect the navy seals. I think you need to explain it to me. I get the impression that the Seals are going to secretly be deployed on the ground in north korea but the NK military is too organized for that to happened. I know that are not as advanced as the US but they are strong enough to deter the Seals. North Korea is not some impoverished African nation without a navy and radar.

Special forces are good when undetected but once you detect them they are normal soldiers. Those stories of a group of ten men destroying an army are good for Call of Duty stories, in reallity once dead, they are dead, they don't get back to last checkpoint.

Look at the S.A.S in iraq. All dead.

Like I said.... UK newspaper talking BS.

Thinking navy seals can do anything and kill anyone anywhere.

Dreamers.

Don't you just love it when Government PR falls flat on its face? How about the Carl Vinson rushing to threaten the NK last week? Ummm no. It turns out she was cruising off Sumatra on Saturday and is only now on her way.

So, a bit of a cock-up on the sabre rattling timeline last week, only outed due to the unfortunate release of a photo by the Navy (not a good career move by someone), it now looks like the Carl Vinson is still somewhere around Malaysia with a way to go.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/aircraft-carrier-north-korea-carl-vinson.html?smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=0

max steel wrote:North Korea, despite her bluster and possession of actual nuclear weapons is not a competitor militarily for a power with a full blown stand-off capability such as US Navy. Once nuclear weapons are factored out of the equation, the only way North Korea may respond to US aggression is to launch a massive land invasion of South Korea. That is it.

well beside the handfull of Nuke's it may have, everybody seems to forget North Korea has at least 5000 tonnes of VX Gas lying around. before they where "Nuclear" North Korea opted to go for an more easy to obtain weapon of mass destruction and chose to stockpile on this stuff first. they keep the nukes for showing off to the rest of the world, promoting North Korea with VX is not international status but was a means of a last-ditch resort to make Japan,South Korea and especially the U.S to back off if they got any idea of an invasion before their nuclear program had any success.

I do not know about South-Korean's state of its armed forces, but i know that of the U.S forces and the Aussies is hollowed out after waging war everywhere. the U.S especially, in Lybia the U.S had to resort to concrete practice bombs as they ran out of actual bombs and same goes for wherever i went. it was always the same thing how U.S supplies where low and no reserves and how dependent they where from supply lines to make it on time from production plants from South America and the U.S.A (yes, the main supplier of NATO Munitions is South America Actually, best quality/price)

and with supply lines i mean the Antonov's, i think NATO relies around 70 percent on contractors and got just 30% of aircraft needed to facilitate its own logistics. its so dramatic that expensive gear (armor,vehicles, shelters) get left behind in Afghanistan because there is simply no capacity to fly it back because sustaining the war costs the entire budget of nations. and "we" NATO already blown trough all our ammo stockpiles, we buy ammo for a year's worth of Training. that's it .

So,..in the event of war where are they going to get the kind of logistical capacity to wage an full war against North Korea?. or even have the ammo to fight it?. do not get me started about Manpower.

Manpower is a joke on itself, its pretty standard for an american soldier to hear after a year or more "you are going home!". and when landing in Greece they are told, "tough luck man, you got two weeks R&R and you are going back to Iraq for another year". and they wonder why so many U.S troops at some point decide to kill themselves being stuck in perpetual war. for example, if an soldier quits before his term, he loses not only his job but he will lose all pension-plans and benefits too for violating his contract. no re-education for "regular" life, nothing.

New recruits are rushed trough basic training, and requirements are not that high. if they are willing to hold a gun and are in the belief every arab is a terrorist you are their man. after barely three months of boot camp they ship them out to Afghanistan(and at the time Iraq) to fight some religious motivated assholes that already had some practice sending americans home in bodybags. and no matter how "we" Europeans tried to convince them to take a step back and assume tactics we propose, it is always "europeans that needed liberation in ww2 by my grandpa". and step aside to see how uncle Sam does it . completely oblivious to the fact that 2 full C-17's with combat casualty's left for Ramstein and almost no EU soldiers where on it on a weekly basis from KAF airfield.

i can name some more things what will be the end of U.S presence when they will try to attack North Korea. Arrogance and belief in their own superiority for one, regarding the entire world enemies and allies alike as a bunch of simpletons that dont know war and all should bend to U.S authority.

Video at link

Eyewitness in Far Eastern Russia spotted “3 trains” loaded with military vehicles (Tor Air Def) heading toward “the (North Korea) border”

https://already-happened.com/2017/04/19/eyewitness-in-far-eastern-russia-spotted-3-trains-loaded-with-military-vehicles-tor-air-def-heading-toward-the-north-korea-border/

A U.S. "MOP" from a Stealth Bomber Intended to Eliminate Leadership and Nuclear Facilities of the D.P.R.K.


http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/trump%e2%80%99s-got-a-mega-bomb-designed-to-hit-north-korea/ar-BBA4YQW?li=AAggNb9&ocid=SKY2DHP

Hahahaha.... yeah because in the history of tension between North Korea and the US it has always threats to murder them that make NK so much more likely to cooperate than any other method.

Geeze Trump is a dumb fuck... almost as dumb as Clinton.

Of course what would really be funny is the US sending B-2s to NK to punish the NKs and finding that even old model MiG-29s have IRSTs that can track stealth bombers and 30mm cannon shells are not effected by jamming and would be very effective in bringing down those flying wings.

Good background map

Kim Jong Un Is a Survivor, Not a Madman


North Korea's behavior might seem irrational to outsiders, but the Kim regime is just taking logical actions to survive.

My understanding is that korean army doctrine has changed since kim fatty the 3rd took over

The sanctions have really hurt NK conventional war fighting capabilities as the technology gap between them and the south has grown exponentially because of the sanctions.

The NK airforce is in the toilet with mig 29 getting only 20 hours a year flight time, the air defence force is dense and good quality but getting too old now e.g. around 1990s level tech - 27 years too old

So kim changed to focus on asymmetric war e.g. expanding special forces from 100k to 200k and making it policy to use nukes on seoul, chem weapons on transport hubs e.g. airport, trains etc to stop soutb from getting a full mobilisation underway and moving civilians. It also allows him to spread out his artillery so it not all clustered around seoul and easy to take out

I would do the same if i was him having seen what happened to iraq, libya and syria and Afghanistan


Apparently it would take 3 days to defeat their air defence and air force. 7 days to defeat their conventional army and 3 - 6 months to defeat their special forces and wmd. Estimated deaths of military + civilians if no nukes are used = 400 000

MonkeymodelBananaRepublic wrote:My understanding is that korean army doctrine has changed since kim fatty the 3rd took over

The sanctions have really hurt NK conventional war fighting capabilities as the technology gap between them and the south has grown exponentially because of the sanctions.

The NK airforce is in the toilet with mig 29 getting only 20 hours a year flight time, the air defence force is dense and good quality but getting too old now e.g. around 1990s level tech - 27 years too old

So kim changed to focus on asymmetric war e.g. expanding special forces from 100k to 200k and making it policy to use nukes on seoul, chem weapons on transport hubs e.g. airport, trains etc to stop soutb from getting a full mobilisation underway and moving civilians. It also allows him to spread out his artillery so it not all clustered around seoul and easy to take out

I would do the same if i was him having seen what happened to iraq, libya and syria and Afghanistan


Apparently it would take 3 days to defeat their air defence and air force. 7 days to defeat their conventional army and 3 - 6 months to defeat their special forces and wmd. Estimated deaths of military + civilians if no nukes are used = 400 000

Perfect scenario analysis. Good luck carrying it out.

Source for scenario

http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/what-would-the-second-korean-war-look-like/

[size=34]https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/will-donald-trump-start-second-korean-war-wild-gamble-would-risk-lives [/size]


[size=32]http://www.cdi.org/north-korea/north-korea-crisis.pdf[/size]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/07/north-korea-the-war-game/304029/

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/04/25/thunder_run_to_seoul_assessing_north_koreas_war_plan_111241.html

 [size=32]http://www.unz.com/akarlin/north-korea-is-simple/[/size]


[size=32]https://mwi.usma.edu/thinking-north-korean-downfall/ 
[/size]


[size=32]https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/ 
[/size]


Another scenario if nukes used

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2017/04/20/will-donald-trump-start-second-korean-war-wild-gamble-would-risk-lives-and-safety-of-millions/amp/

North Korea army can re-unite the country in no time. If USA attempt to stop them this time it will be laughably one sided. The problem is political/economical not military anymore.

Love it when they talk about taking down an air defence network in three days...

If they payed attention to the NATO action in Kosovo the North Koreans could be a rather difficult problem for the US... it could take months or years to take out all their AD network... NK has a range of missiles that can reach US bases and airfields that will be launching the strikes... a capability Serbia or Iraq never had...

Let alone that airforce is vastly overestimated as all recent wars have shown including Syria.

Electronic warfare will neuter most radars i imagine, i mean nk technology is early 90s at best for air defence and america has had 30+ years of studying and fighting the systems nk employs. The tunnels they have could be a game changer depending how they use them, e.g. tunnels 100km long with multiple entry exits could allow reployment or radars and missiles and use of camouflage would help.

True that they would have initiative early on but surely usa and korea got hardened facilities and many spares in storage within korea and japan. Dont forget guam etc

I just dont see it ending up in a nk victory, they will kill hundreds of thousands if not millions in a conflict but i dont see that as being sufficient to break the will of usa, japan nato to fight. I dont think they will surrender, i think the loss of life would embolden them to fight even more. World opinion and media would be on their side and no way china or russia risk war to save kim the third fatties ass.

Imagine the message it would send to iran and others if nk successful use nukes in war and everyone let them win. Wherras ukraine, iraq, libya and syria all gave up theirs - look where it got them. proliferation would expand and nato wanting to be top dog unrivalled wouldnt let that happen.

In a conflict nk would loose, it would cause mass loss of life but loose.

I think the idea of a truly independent north korea state with it own policies and nukes scares the hell out of china. They want a client/puppet state that follow orders, act as a buffer and focuses korea and japan away from china.

I think north korea may be in danger of being stabbed in the back by China. I mean wouldnt that be perfect? Trump cuts a deal with china for china to invade and have a client state and usa avoids a war, avoids destroying the soutb korea economoc power house, avoids loss of life, stops nuclear proliferation. Sure south korea would be pissed but screw them they follow washington orders not other way around. China gains a new autonomous region with cheap labour and continues to lock it down and isolate it from rest of chinese population. Free slave state.

For america china might get bogged down in nation building or a counter insurgency against north korea  nationalists. Its a good deal if trump can sell it.

I mean 80% of fire power and 70% north korea military is on southern border and rest around Pyongyang. Depends on china for electricity and fuel... if china cut those off cant redeploy that milotary without exhaust reserves of supplies and logisitical problems.

That might be the trump card. Cut a deal with china for china invasion - transfer the battle over to commie kill commie just like they do in middle east with sunni kill shite to help israel and weaken russia.

If i was kim i would put nuclear mines on the north border or have nukes ready to hit china to stop this.

Would be interestong to overcome us/rok defences if nukes were deployed using tunnels under dmz or in suicide midgit submarines or backpack nukes with special forces.

I suspect this is why kim killed over 130 senior nk officials since he come to power including his uncle. He want to kill off all of Beijing intelligence puppets/ sympathizers or those who willing cut deal china to rule client state for them. Palace coup stuff.

He also shut down north korea and china infrastructure to intentionally make it harder for china to invade. Trump also talk of letting china have north korea and ditching south korea

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/2181286/north-korea-brings-halt-to-200m-bridge-project-over-fears-chinese-will-invade-with-hundreds-of-tanks/amp/ 

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/does-china-have-a-secret-solution-for-north-korea/

https://www.ft.com/content/5b16ac22-2c37-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c 

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/551bb080-1c3c-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15 

Vast rare earth minerals found in north korea which china dominate 90% global market

http://world.time.com/2014/01/17/north-koreas-enormous-reserves-of-minerals-could-be-a-game-changer/

Kim is smart, he learn from korea war, vietnam war, iraq war x 2, Yugoslavia, romania palace coup, libya, syria, afghanistan. He know negotiations and compromise end in death unless you have nukes. Only nukes allow you the possibility of independent national policy. If you dont have them then you are someone elses bitch / puppet / client.

He is surrounded by enemies and has no trust worthy allies. His only chance is to bee line it for nukes and force usa and world to recognise him as independent nuclear nation.then make formal peace with usa and move on with life.

US popularion being prepped for a war like iraq before 2003

https://www.google.com.au/amp/gizmodo.com/american-media-are-getting-people-at-home-ready-for-war-1794620783/amp

[size=32]Trump’s gamble is that Kim Jong Un would shy away from retaliating against a U.S. strike on his nuclear facilities, cognizant that American military superiority means any full-scale war would undoubtedly result in his regime’s complete destruction.[/size]


[size=32]It might have nuclear weapons, but the regime cannot use them without guaranteeing its own destruction. That’s how nuclear deterrents work. North Korea is not ISIS with an “end of days” deathwish, wreaking jihad across the globe in its quest for a global caliphate.[/size]



[size=32]“Why are people panicking about North Korea?” asks Daniel Pinkston, an East Asia expert at South Korea’s Troy University. “It’s secular, they want to survive and they are very cognizant of power balances. They are not suicidal.”[/size]



[size=32]What is disturbing about the situation, though, is how the war plans of North Korea, South Korea, and the United States might interact. North Korea’s military exercises leave little doubt that Pyongyang plans to use large numbers of nuclear weapons against U.S. forces throughout Japan and South Korea to blunt an invasion. In fact, the word that official North Korean statements use is “repel.” North Korean defectors have claimed that the country’s leaders hope that by inflicting mass casualties and destruction in the early days of a conflict, they can force the United States and South Korea to recoil from their invasion. While U.S. officials usually bluster that Kim would be suicidal to order the large-scale use of nuclear weapons, it’s obvious that a conventional defense didn’t work for Saddam Hussein or Muammar al-Qaddafi when they faced an onslaught of U.S. military power. That was suicide. Of course, that’s where those North Korean ICBMs come in: to keep Trump from doing anything regrettable after Kim Jong Un obliterates Seoul and Tokyo.[/size]
[size=32]Then there is this: Kim’s strategy depends on using nuclear weapons early — before the United States can kill him or those special forces on display in Foal Eagle can find his missile units. He has to go first, if he is to go at all.[/size]


[size=33]https://www.google.com.au/amp/foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/09/north-korea-is-practicing-for-nuclear-war/amp/ [/size]

Chinese papers and party officials calling for ditching north korea in favour of south

[size=32]Last month, historian Shen Zhihua, one of China's foremost voices on the Cold War and Korean-peninsula issues, said in a landmark speech that it was time for academics to speak the truth rather than worry about angering those in power.[/size]
[size=32]And the truth, he said, is that China's approach to the Korean peninsula no longer works. It is the trade-friendly South, not the isolated North, that should be China's friend, he said – and the nuclear-armed North, not the nuclear-free South, that should be considered an enemy.[/size]
[size=32]"We must see that China and North Korea are not comrades, and in the short term, China-DPRK relations cannot be improved," he said [/size]

[size=32]Although U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence last week warned that "the era of strategic patience is over" on North Korea, that proclamation "is for domestic consumption," Prof. Haggard says. "It doesn't have anything to do with what the administration is actually doing, which is precisely to wait to see what the Chinese can or can't deliver."[/size]


Chinese plan for if regeme collapse 
https://www.google.com.au/amp/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2014/5/6/5686858/chinas-secret-plan-for-north-koreas-collapse-revealed


[size=32]Pdf on what guerrilla warfare in north korea post regeme defeat or collapse might look like [/size]


[size=34]http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/irregular-warfare-on-the-korean-peninsula [/size]

The American public could barely handle 6,000 deaths in Iraq. Almost lead to revolts. 50,000 US troops or more dead in Vietnam wielded mass riots and protests. The Americans cannot handle large loss of life. Many of US vessels in Asia cannot either. So if US did kick start a war with North Korea, and they decided to cause mass destruction against city centers of these other nations, a major backlash against the US could happen as the other nations will blame US for provoking the war. Something US also cannot afford.

NK may not be using modern technology (they do make their own semiconductors) but it is secretive enough that it leaves many scratching their heads over it. That alone causes concern and uncertainty when planning attacks.