TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.
lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.
All companies that are engaged in sales or production make forecasts
These forecasts are not based on past performance only
There are so many other factors and variables that affect a forecast.
Your method of forecasting anything on this forum (and others) is solely based on past performance with absolute or no improvement expectations in the future.
As a matter of fact, SSJ production has increased every year since production start
It is expected to rise this year too: http://www.1prime.biz/news/transport_automobile/_Russias_UAC_to_supply_44_SSJ-100_planes_to_clients_in_2015/0/%7B818E4D37-C80D-4BE6-AB4C-1DBB191FCD2E%7D.uif
The SSJ may actually reach, exceed or fail the forecast of course. But production is expected to increase for 2015.
Now, how about 2016 or 2017 and beyond? is 50 a year a reasonable and reachable objective in a few years?
Same applies to MC-21.
The big debate is whether they will make 1000 units in 20 years.
Well, they may succeed or fail. We don't know.
But, that is what Rogozin is forecasting
. And you are accusing him of talking through his arse.
A forecast is a forecast. If they end up making 999 units or 899 or 1099 units or whatever. That does not mean that he is a liar or an a-hole.
Edit: Some fresh news about SSJ