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    Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

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    Austin
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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 30, 2011 1:08 pm

    Saw it on Yefim Gordon book , the KH-55 AFAIK has a range of 2500 km , i think those ranges also depends a lot of profile , if it flies low for most part of its flight then range might just get reduces to half or less of that.

    The CFT is Jettisable that what Yefim Gordon mentions , I think it makes sense instead of carrying the dead weight along.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:06 pm

    The CFT is Jettisable that what Yefim Gordon mentions , I think it makes sense instead of carrying the dead weight along.

    A conformal fuel tank that can be jettisoned would weigh more than one that wouldn't.

    The enlarged tanks would not be very heavy at all, in fact the fuel they carry would be much heavier than the extra structure used.

    The added complication of making the conformal tanks jettisonable would be hard to justify, and as you can see above, they are not huge bulky tanks.

    It is hard to find decent info on Russian and Soviet cruise missiles... it wasn't that long ago that some western publications stated that the land and sea launched long range cruise missiles were based on the Kh-55.

    Conformal tanks are a drastic measure to gain a mere 500km in range.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:16 pm

    Garry I just told you what is there in Yefim Gordon Book , You can buy the latest Russian Air Power or even Russian Strategic Aviation and you will find it , the later is a good book for a Russian Aviation fan like you.

    I dont think adding a jetisable CFT is something hard or complicated or adds weight , specially if the cruise missile is designed to use fuel from CFT first and then its internal fuel , carrying the dead weight of CFT is a PITA for the remaining flight adds weight and drag better to jettision it.

    I really dont know if the red missile shown there is a Kh-555 or some Kh-55 variant refered to as Kh-55SM , KH-555 is a deep modernisation and is virtually a new missile in old cover.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:04 am

    Jet engines are not efficient at low altitudes, so any cruise missile with a range of over 1,000km will fly quite a lot of the first few legs of its flight at medium altitude.

    Former nuclear armed cruise missiles converted to conventional warheads either gain a lot of weight, or more commonly lose a lot of range... just the difference between having to tote a 400kg conventional warhead compared to a nuke warhead that might weigh 100kgs or so, makes a huge difference in fuel efficiency.

    Add to that the extra guidance seekers and systems needed for the greatly increased accuracy requirements and you are carrying a lot more dead weight.

    The idea of using conformal fuel tanks is to minimise drag.

    Properly designed they could actually improve performance in generating some body lift.

    The Kh-55 is the original round missile, the Kh-55SM has external fuel tanks added as conformal tanks to extend range. For a long time the Kh-555 was credited with the same range as the Kh-55SM it was based on, but because of the article above we now know it has the longer range of 3,500km.

    The Kh-55 and Kh-55SM are Soviet missiles with motors designed and built in the Ukraine. The Kh-555 is a post soviet breakup development with a new Russian engine that is more powerful and more fuel efficient than the older missiles, which probably explains the range increase. I doubt they completely redesigned the internal structure of the missile as the idea of the Kh-555 is that of a conventional weapon that is cheaper because it is a modification of a missile they have large stocks of so the idea is to use up existing air frames, so it would have to be significant increases in performance of the electronics that likely freed up a lot of internal space that was likely used for more fuel.

    Whether the Kh-55 had a range of 2,000km or 2,500km is not really important so I think it is best to agree to disagree on that, what is important is that which ever range it was, it was deemed necessary to add conformal fuel tanks to extend the flight range of the missile to the agreed upon distance of 3,000km.


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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:01 am

    Its really difficult to say what was the warhead weight of Kh-55 Nuclear version since it remains a very classified subject. It could easily be 400 kg with the warhead and all its fail safe electronics etc etc. And it simply got replaced by conventional warhead of 400 kg.

    Comparing electronics to dead weight of CFT is not right , Electronics is like an essential dead weight cant do without it Laughing

    While CFT dead weight is non-essential after fuel is used , it will reduce drag and make the whole thing lighter so jettsioning it makes sense.

    Any ways a range of 3500 km with the ability to hit a window or door is really good , nothing to joke about. I read in Yefim Book that Kh-555 electronics is similar to Kh-101 , so wont be surprised both have idential electronics in most respect and both certainly have idential warhead weight of 400 kg.

    With Precision GLONASS now available , one can only imagine these missile will now be as accurate as any thing the best west has there in any part of globe.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:02 pm

    Its really difficult to say what was the warhead weight of Kh-55 Nuclear version since it remains a very classified subject. It could easily be 400 kg with the warhead and all its fail safe electronics etc etc. And it simply got replaced by conventional warhead of 400 kg.

    It says in the article I posted above...

    Instead of compact nuclear charge (130 kg) it may be equipped with armor-piercing, shaped-charge, fragmentation or high-explosive warhead with the weight of over 350 kg.


    Comparing electronics to dead weight of CFT is not right , Electronics is like an essential dead weight cant do without it Laughing

    While CFT dead weight is non-essential after fuel is used , it will reduce drag and make the whole thing lighter so jettsioning it makes sense.

    The whole point about making the conformal tanks conformal is to make them low drag in the first place... what happens if one side of tanks fails to jettison properly? Or both sides jettison, but take a wing with them?

    I read in Yefim Book that Kh-555 electronics is similar to Kh-101 , so wont be surprised both have idential electronics in most respect and both certainly have idential warhead weight of 400 kg.

    That is to be expected as they were pretty much both developed at about the same time, so commonality would make sense, however the Kh-101/-102 is a much larger missile with more fuel and a much longer range.

    With Precision GLONASS now available , one can only imagine these missile will now be as accurate as any thing the best west has there in any part of globe.

    Will certainly help, but I believe the terminal homing is optical so it can target a specific window or building.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:38 pm

    GarryB wrote:Instead of compact nuclear charge (130 kg) it may be equipped with armor-piercing, shaped-charge, fragmentation or high-explosive warhead with the weight of over 350 kg.

    All Russian Nuclear Warhead Weight Dimension yeald figures are very highly classified , so take that with a pinch or bangful of salt.

    The whole point about making the conformal tanks conformal is to make them low drag in the first place... what happens if one side of tanks fails to jettison properly? Or both sides jettison, but take a wing with them?

    The primary purpose of CFT is to carry additional fuel at lowest possible drag and in case of aircraft free a payload station. Still CFT can add to significant drag for aerodynamic reason but its better then a drop tank.

    I am sure they must have figured out a way to Jettison it , else why would they attach a CFT , they would have simply designed a Kh-555 with fix ( not detchable ) cft type dimension , if it was aerodynamically useful.



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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:58 pm

    The Kh-55 is no longer an in service weapon, and there is no obvious reason to keep the warhead weight secret.

    Remember this is a weapon from the 1980s... they had 152mm artillery shells weighing 40kgs that had a nuclear yield of 10Kts.

    I am sure they must have figured out a way to Jettison it , else why would they attach a CFT , they would have simply designed a Kh-555 with fix ( not detchable ) cft type dimension , if it was aerodynamically useful.

    The original missile was circular and generated no lift at all.

    The conformal tanks added to the Kh-55SM actually improved aerodynamics.

    BTW conformal tanks on aircraft are never jettisoned in flight either.

    Perhaps we will have to agree to disagree on this too.

    BTW Happy New Year... 2012 is here already drunken ... here.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:02 pm

    GarryB wrote:The Kh-55 is no longer an in service weapon, and there is no obvious reason to keep the warhead weight secret.

    Says who ? The Kh-55 is the nuclear warhead cruise missile that is carried by Tu-160 and Tu-95 bomber

    Try to get me any official warhead weight and yeald of weapons in use and I will owe you a beer santa

    BTW Happy New Year... 2012 is here already drunken ... here.

    Happy New Year 2012 to you and your Family santa thumbsup




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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:14 am

    Try to get me any official warhead weight and yeald of weapons in use and I will owe you a beer

    Actually START documents require information of weapons and yields to be released... not sure about warhead weights as such though.

    Says who ? The Kh-55 is the nuclear warhead cruise missile that is carried by Tu-160 and Tu-95 bomber

    That is likely rapidly being replaced with Kh-101/102 missiles that are relatively cheap and easy to build.

    The Kh-55 stocks will largely be replaced by Kh-555 upgrades, while the Kh-55SM might be kept in stock for Tu-95 use, as the larger Kh-101/102 are too big to fit in the rotary launcher on the Tu-95MS, but its days will be numbered too.

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    Kh-55 and Kh-101[Strategic Cruise missiles]

    Post  Russian Patriot on Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:52 pm

    A new cruise missile has entered service with the Russian Air Force’s strategic long-range arms division, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said on Tuesday.

    He did not provide any details, only saying it was an air-launched long range missile.

    AF chief Col Gen Alexander Zelin previously said the new cruise missile was developed by the Taktitcheskoye Raketnoye Vooruzhenie (Tactical Missile) defense corporation and that its specifications were secret. He said the new missiles would also be installed in fifth-generation fighters.

    Douglas Barrie, an air warfare analyst at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, said the new weapon was likely to be “either the Kh-555 or Kh-101/102.”

    The Kh-555 is a new conventionally-armed variant of the Kh-55 nuclear-armed cruise missile, which has been in service since the 1984 on Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers.

    Kh-101 is a stealthy nuclear armed cruise-missile under development by the Raduga design bureau, along with a conventionally-armed variant (Kh-102). Globalsecurity.org claims the weapon was test-fired in October 1998. Some reports claim the weapon is itself a derivative of Kh-555.

    Serdyukov also said Russia’s fleet of Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95MS Bear strategic bombers will be modernized.

    Defense Ministry spokesman Vladimir Drik earlier said the AF’s strategic long-range arms division will receive more than 10 modernized Tu-160M Blackjack bombers by 2020.

    The new bombers will be adapted to carry advanced cruise missiles and bombs.

    Zelin said in January the AF will soon deploy an advanced tactical air-to-air missile that will greatly enhance its operational effectiveness. The missile will be carried by MiG-31BM Foxhound supersonic interceptors/fighters and will subsequently be used by other warplanes.

    Zelin did not identify the missile but experts believe it could be the K-37M, also known as RVV-BD, or AA-X-13 Arrow as it is known to NATO.

    The K-prefix denotes a weapon in development while the M indicates a modification. An export variant of the weapon, known as RVV-BD, was shown at MAKS 2011. The BD suffix may stand for the Russian words bolshoi dalnosti, or long range.

    http://www.en.ria.ru/mlitary_news/20120320/172284223.html

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    A new cruise missile has entered service with the Russian Air Force

    Post  GarryB on Tue Mar 20, 2012 11:43 pm

    It could certainly be the Kh-101/102 or the Kh-555, but it could equally be the air launched version of the Klub missile.

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    Innovation Program Tactical Missile Bureau upto 2020

    Post  Austin on Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:39 pm

    A nice document by Tactical Missile Bureau on the development program till 2020 for various weapons system.

    ktrv.ru/go/?dwl=1&f=998

    For managed aircraft weapons of all classes

    1. Vsesutochnoe and all-weather use.
    2. High pointing accuracy and the ability to target recognition.
    3. Availability honing channel acting in the target area.
    4. High noise immunity.
    5. Availability of on-board control and homing, agreed
    Bathrooms on information systems targeting characteristics.
    6. The possibility of using part-time instrument (information-
    onnogo) support.
    7. Missile guidance on the specified elements of group purpose.
    8. Ability to use without entering the zone defense enemy by increasing the launch range.
    9. High survival rate in the trajectory due to the low-unmasks
    ing signs, improve acceleration performance and use special
    GOVERNMENTAL types of trajectories.
    10. Minimal contact with the carrier aircraft.
    11. The ability to transmit data destroys targets and results-deaconess
    12. Small transport dimensions and the possibility of conformal or intrafuselage placement.
    13. High modernization potential to continually improve ammunition
    O quality and minimize the cost of development, testing and mass production
    duction.
    14. High technology in the manufacture and reasonable cost for rapid replenishment of necessary supplies


    For missiles "air-to-air"


    1. High energoballisticheskie features for application preemptive strike.
    2. Multi-channel, self-sufficiency and omnidirectional applications.
    3. Versatility on types targeted goals (manned, unmanned,high-speed, low-speed, high-altitude, low altitude)

    For multi-purpose missiles "air-surface"

    1. Selectivity ground targets with minimum side-effects Fecteau.
    2. Volley application from one carrier to the group and the Diversity Task-
    lam with the implementation of target recognition and autonomous guidance outside fur-
    completely straight line.
    3. Can be used in urban conditions.
    4. The possibility of retargeting in flight.
    5. The ability to place (including vnutrifyuzelyazhnyh placement) and at changes on all types of media and the front range aircraft


    For anti-radar missiles

    1. Srednetraektornaya high speed throughout the range distances Examplestion.
    2. The ability to recognize the radio-emitting target group for a given Radio Equipment portrait and guidance to select destinations in the group.
    3. Adaptive undermining warhead rendered by the action items purpose.
    4. Ability to determine whether a target in the "us and them".
    5. The possibility of retargeting in flight.


    For anti-ship missiles

    1. Flight at extremely low altitude over water
    2. Srednetraektornaya high speed.
    3. For supersonic missiles - flight path combined with the protozhennym low-altitude site.
    4. Recognition of the intended target group and selectivity sighting element group or large targets

    For guided air bombs


    1. The ability to place large ammunition on the media by minimize the size-weight characteristics while simultaneously implementation of high-precision guidance.
    2. Can be used in a wide range of altitudes and speeds, including those with low and extremely low altitudes.
    3. The possibility of single and multiple-launch of one or more Kim goals in one attack.
    4. Existence of a universal military equipment, providing effective defeat a wide range of purposes.
    5. Adapting to the goals by equipping controlled detonation device property with a selective effect.
    6. Standardization and modularity


    For universal torpedoes


    1. High performance at low noise underwater action against lo noise submarine and high-speed surface ships (NC), including coastal areas.
    2. High noise immunity homing systems in relation to the natural and artificial interference, as well as sufficient resistance to the average properties antitorpedo protection.
    3. Can be used in shallow waters at prilednennoy and treatment ground submarine.
    4. The introduction of the channel indication wake purpose remote control system on the basis of multi-network exchange between the carrier and torpedoes in volley.
    5. High performance search and classification capabilities through the introduction of broadband, multi-frequency, conformal-acoustic skin antennas, new algorithms for processing sonar information


    For high-speed underwater missile


    1. Fighting equipment, providing high efficiency defeat NC in the minimum time allowed.
    2. Covering a distance to the target at a given depth with high-srednetra orbitally speed in developed cavitation.
    3. Magnetometric guidance system, which allows a high probability stu determine the time of passage in the zone objectives and give the command to separate military equipment.


    For mine complexes


    1. The ability to search and destroy mines ahead of the co Rabelais.
    2. Autonomy and high level of automation of mine action.
    3. The ability to search and destroy mines in the grouping autonomous underwater vehicles for mine
    4. The use of multi-frequency sonar with a mine-detector
    synthetic aperture and increase the combat stability by reducing
    own physical fields through the introduction of composite materials.
    5. The possibility of using a helicopter-towed sonar mine-detector station.

    The list of specific innovative projects and trends in scientific research and development of design development, planned to JSC "Corporation" Tactical Missiles "to implement in 2011-2020
    contains information constituting a state secret. The data from the list of
    available to third parties on the basis of a request by the decision of The handle-
    duction of the Corporation individually

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  George1 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:42 pm

    http://izvestia.ru/news/535063

    In early 2013, for service far the Russian Air Force will adopt a new cruise missile X-101, told "Izvestia" a source in the Russian Air Force. According to him, it is now undergoing flight tests. According to the test firings, the radius of the target missile deviation does not exceed 10 meters with 10 thousand miles. In this case, the predecessor X-101 - X-555 missiles - a deviation of 25-30 M. Thus, X-101 actually will be the first high-precision non-nuclear missile in the arsenal of long-range aircraft.

    - U.S. Air Force adopted the first high-precision cruise missiles, air-launched back in 1980. We're still counting, mainly to the destructive power of a nuclear explosion, when the plus-minus 50-100 m large irrelevant. Now the problem has changed - you need to have a precision weapon to destroy the object of jewelry - told "Izvestia" a source in the Russian Air Force, the main command.

    According to him, the presence of such a missile will inflict long-range aircraft as high-precision strikes on terrorist bases, and on strategic targets behind enemy lines without risking the lives of pilots.

    X-101 - is a subsonic cruise missile long range. Leads to the target missile navigation system based on GLONASS. In contrast to the X-555 is the new missile can destroy as small size (from 2-3 m) and mobile objects, including driving a car, told "Izvestia", the representative of the military-industrial complex.

    In case of radio-electronic jamming and disabling satellite navigation systems are equipped with self-contained missile inertial positioning.

    Due to a new electronic database guidance system was less than in the Soviet missiles. Vacated seat took fuel and warhead. If the X-555 was flying two thousand miles with a 200-kilogram warhead, the X-101 is a 10 th with a 400 kg warhead. There is also a version of the new nuclear missiles, received index X-102.

    - However, the X-101 still got a heavy X-555 is about three or four times. Therefore, it can only carry the strategic missile Tu-160 and Tu-95. Tu-22 it will not lift. That's why "Backfire" yet remain with the old X-555 - explained "Izvestia".

    According to the president of the Institute for Strategic Assessments Alexander Konovalov, long-range cruise missiles are now vital to the Russian Air Force.

    - Due to the lack of Russian military bases abroad Russian fighters will not be able to cover the bombers during transcontinental flights. It is therefore very important that the Tu-95 and Tu-160 missiles able to release without getting in range of enemy air defenses - said Konovalov.

    The closest analogue X-101 - American long-range cruise missile, AGM-129. It is also equipped with a satellite navigation system (GPS), and inertial. Range of American missile is just over 3 thousand miles. Run the AGM-129 is possible only with a heavy bomber B-52.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Sujoy on Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:14 pm

    According to the test firings, the radius of the target missile deviation does not exceed 10 meters with 10 thousand miles.

    10 thousand miles ?? Doubtful . Probably 10,000 kms . Typo I guess.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  TR1 on Thu Sep 27, 2012 1:11 am

    It's not even 10,000km.


    That article is terrible.

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    Kh-55/555, Kh-101/102 LACMs: News

    Post  George1 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:48 am

    The Russian Air Force will accept into service in 2013 the new Raduga Kh-101 cruise missile, capable of delivering precision strikes with a conventional warhead at long-distance, an Air Force source told Izvestia on Wednesday.

    The new missile, currently being flight-tested, will be able to hit targets with an accuracy of just 30 feet (10 meters) at ranges of up to 6,000 miles (10,000 km), giving Long-Range Aviation its first precision-strike long-range weapon, the paper says.

    The Russian Air Force's bombers currently deploy the Kh-555 conventionally-armed cruise missile, which only has an accuracy of 75-90 feet (25-30 meters) accuracy.

    The subsonic Kh-101 navigates primarily by using Russia's GLONASS satellite navigation system, but also has a backup intertial guidance mechanism which can take over if its SATNAV is jammed. It will also be capable of hitting small moving targets like vehicles, the paper said.

    The new missile delivers a bigger payload - 880 pounds (400 kg) than its Kh-555 predecessor (440 pounds), and over a much longer range. A nuclear-armed variant, Kh-102, will also enter service.

    The long-range capability is essential as Russia no longer has bases abroad and therefore cannot provide distant fighter escort for its bomber fleet, Alexander Konovalov of the Strategic Evaluation Institute told the paper.

    The large size of the weapon means it can only be carried by Russia's biggest bombers, the Tupolev Tu-95MS and Tu-160, and not the Tu-22M3, which will continue in service with the Kh-555, the source told Izvestia.

    http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20120926/176233341.html


    Last edited by George1 on Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:18 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  TR1 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:33 am

    Now Ria is parroting the 10,000 km number that Izvestia made up
    ?

    Oy.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  George1 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:08 am

    TR1 wrote:Now Ria is parroting the 10,000 km number that Izvestia made up
    ?

    Oy.

    why not? this is not a simple cruise missile, this a super super cruise missile

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  TR1 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:20 am

    Given the size of the missile, it is very much impossible.


    The range has always been stated as 5,000 KM, and then suddenly Izvestya pops up the 10k number.

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:11 am

    Well, this is a two ton missile, and the range of such a weapon would be greatly effected by its chosen flight profile and speed.

    A lower power setting for the engine, along with a high flight profile to maximise range and it could probably greatly increase its flight performance... actually it would be a great way to get around the INF treaty as the INF treaty bans ground launched missiles... ballistic and cruise missiles, with a range of 500km to 5,500km, so making a cruise missile with a flight range of 6,000km or more means ground based missiles become legal.


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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  eridan on Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:02 am

    taking the info at face value, precision of 10 meters isn't really that good for this day and age.

    Also, what sort of sensors does the missile use, since it is claimed to be able to hit moving targets. (why would a strategic missile of 5000 km range need to hit anything other than fixed targets is beyond me though)

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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:05 pm

    Its official accuracy is given as 10m, just like the CEP for Iskander is 10m but impacts of 3m or less were common in tests.

    With a 400kg HE warhead for the cruise missile and about 600kgs for the Russian model of Iskander, a 10m level of accuracy is good enough for most targets. Against area targets like a group of vehicles then a cluster warhead payload can be used too.

    Obviously for nuclear payloads this is far better accuracy than is needed.

    AFAIK it has optical terminal guidance that includes night capability.

    The ability to hit moving targets would largely be useful against ships, though the ability to hit moving targets suggests the ability to find its target even if it wasn't where it was supposed to be.


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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  Mindstorm on Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:18 am



    taking the info at face value, precision of 10 meters isn't really that good for this day and age.


    Oh my.... Rolling Eyes

    Over and over and over alaways the same mistakes : in Russian literature missile's precision is expressed in Maximum Error Value or Index of Maximum Error (about 2,68 times the miss distance's standard deviation ), a measure about equal to 2,3 times the western CEP - Circular Error Probability .

    Therefore, if the information come from a Russian sources, in order to find the corresponding CEP of the Kh-101, you must divide the figure provided for 2,3.



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    Re: Strategic Cruise Missiles: Discussion

    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:48 am

    For those who are not sure what Mindstorm means let me give a short explanation.

    Very simply CEP or circular error probability is a measure of probable accuracy.

    It is determined using a standard bell curve of results.

    If you look at a standard bell curve most of the results are in the middle and are average while the very high and very low results are rare so you end up with a line that is on the zero line for 1 and 0 and bulges up around 0.5 in the middle forming a bell shape.

    It is zero for 1 and 0 because you can't have a probability of 100% certainty, just as you can't guarantee a zero% certainty either... 1 meaning no matter what it will always hit the target no matter how many times it is fired, and a 0 meaning it will never hit the target no matter how many times it is fired.

    Well that is not totally true... a Scud missile has a zero probability of hitting a target 10,000km away, but we are talking about a measure of precision on a target that is within reach.

    In the west a common measure is a CEP of 50% accuracy. In other words a CEP of 10m at 50% probability means that if you draw a circle around the point you are aiming for with a radius of 10m then 50% of the time the round or weapon will land within that circle. It basically equates to the middle section of the bell curve where the majority of the data occurs.

    In this case however the Russians are using the much stricter measure of CEP using the 95% accuracy, which can be derived from the CEP of 50% by multiplying it by 2.3.

    Which would give you the 95% CEP rating... if the same weapon had a CEP 50% of 10m then the CEP 95% would be 2.3 times larger, or 23m in radius.

    The best accuracy is CEP 99% which is 4 times the 50% CEP and would include many of the terminal phase malfunctions and of course high speed cross winds near the target and other natural effects that reduce accuracy.

    CEP 100% would include a failure to launch and therefore would be the radius of the range to the target.

    Different levels of probability are used for different purposes... 50% is often good enough for most tasks, and results in a nice small number that is good for marketing.

    95% is a more realistic reflection of reality.

    Of course the real problem is that some weapons might have better accuracy in a particular axis, so for instance a 122mm artillery shell might have a normal impact zone 60m long at 9km range, but the horizontal impact zone is only about 9m, so its impact zone is a long oval shape rather than a circle, and impact points for guided and unguided rounds are rarely so evenly distributed in a nice bell curve, so it is really an indicator more than anything else.

    The fact is that more often than not the projectile will land near the aim point and will only very rarely hit it dead on.


    _________________
    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

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