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    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #2

    kvs
    kvs

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    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:38 pm

    JohninMK wrote:No hurry now Ukraine deal is done.

    Reuters
    ‏Verified account @Reuters
    37m37 minutes ago

    Putin: Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be finished by year-end or Q1 2021 https://reut.rs/2QKAvEw

    EU officials with functional brains should be a bit worried.   Things can go south real quick.   So it is in their
    interests to have Nord Stream II finished ASAP.   This probably dawned on Denmark in the last few months.
    Too many deciders are coasting in neutral thinking BAU will go on forever.   Once they get their asses off
    the couch, they begin to see the cold, hard reality of the energy shortage tsunami heading the world's
    way.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:47 am

    hard reality of the energy shortage tsunami heading the world's
    way.

    Not for Russia, they have natural gas and nuclear and oil to choose from.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:29 am

    GarryB wrote:
    hard reality of the energy shortage tsunami heading the world's
    way.

    Not for Russia, they have natural gas and nuclear and oil to choose from.

    Russia is not the world and depends on the world economy even with the current wave of import substitution. Russia will not benefit
    from those resources if it has to fight off zombie hordes from a disintegrating global economy.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:09 am

    They just need to make sure they have plenty of ammo and lots of armed drones to guard their borders...

    When you produce a food surplus then there is the possibility of trade, but that assumes the other side has something to trade... US dollars will be worthless, and if hedge fund managers try to trade stocks for food... well no deal.... Twisted Evil
    Hole
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    Post  Hole on Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:34 pm

    The completion of NordStream II is more a test for the EU then for Russia. EU (mainly german) companies own 49% of the pipeline. It is in their interest that the pipeline is finished. After the chinese and turkish pipelines are ready and with more LNG plants coming online (+ existing pipelines to Europe) Russia doesn´t need to sell the amount of gas that will go trough NS II.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:34 am

    It will be more of a problem for the EU than it would be for Russia... the pipelines are quick and easy and convenient, but there is big and growing demand for their gas... Russia could probably get more pumping gas to Asia and I suspect they are realising that themselves... certainly less political problems involved.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:34 pm

    Arctic LNG plant is partially done so once its fully complete then it will be a huge boost for Russians LNG which is already dominant in EU as is.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:55 am

    Well ironically smaller countries are a much better market... lets say a single LNG ship carries 10 million cubic metres of gas in liquid form when you are selling that to the EU they buy in bulk so they will take everything the ship can carry plus several more ships too, but the rate they will be paying for the gas will be heavily discounted because they buy in bulk so for the Russians using lots of ships increases the delivery costs but they are selling the stuff at a cheaper rate than they could get from another smaller country or group of countries.

    The key would be to find a market with a lot of customers relatively close together like in Africa or Asia or South America where you can sail over with one or two ships and deliver gas to three or four countries and sail back to Russia with empty ships. Because they are not buying as much each and because they are so far from where the gas is coming from they will be used to paying more for their gas so Russia makes more per litre of gas than they would with selling to the EU.

    Any time spent in retail teaches you middle income and rich people don't pay retail price... buy expensive stuff and get lots of discount and also free stuff thrown in to get you to buy for the rich people and middle income people usually buy in bulk to get savings that way. It is the poor that tends to pay full price because generally they can't afford to wait for specials and can't afford to buy in bulk when things are on special...

    Besides, Russian gas sales to far away countries could open countries up to dealing with Russian companies and leading to a boost in trade in other areas... maybe add cargo spaces to their gas tankers so other goods can be brought back... even in part trade for the gas they just delivered.

    They could even use it for marketing.... trade with us and get cheaper gas/energy...
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:49 am

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-US-LNG-Cant-Win-In-Europe.html

    Why U.S. LNG Can’t Win In Europe

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    Post  owais.usmani on Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:57 am

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Superpower-Energy-Project-To-Watch-In-2020.html

    The Superpower Energy Project To Watch In 2020


    The year has started well for Russia when it comes to energy. Two large energy projects have been finished, Turk Stream and Power of Siberia, and the third, Nord Stream 2, has passed the point of no return - with U.S. sanctions now unable to obstruct its completion. Moscow's ambitions, however, are loftier still. China and Russia have voiced plans for ever-closer political and economic cooperation. Energy is one of the most important areas of collaboration between these two superpowers due to the complementary nature of their economies. China requires ever-larger volumes of energy to power its expansion and Russia needs money to modernize and sustain a reasonable standard of living for its population.

    For nearly two decades Russia has been trying to convince China to buy natural gas from its natural gas fields in Western Siberia. Moscow has both political and financial reasons to convince Beijing of this. The Russians have been looking for alternatives to lessen their dependence on Europe as the vast majority of the natural gas is exported towards the west. Supplying China with energy from the same natural gas fields would strengthen the country’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Europe as it would increase the available options in case demand decreases from either one. From a financial point of view the Altai pipeline is relatively cheap as much of the infrastructure is already present.

    Negotiations on the pipeline have been slow due to Chinese foot-dragging. Northwestern China is already an important production area for oil and gas. Therefore, the regional market is already saturated. This means that Chinese companies would have to invest heavily in additional infrastructure to carry the gas to the densely populated areas in the east. Also, the country is already well-connected to Turkmenistan’s gas fields through Central Asia with a 55 bcm capacity pipeline.

    Putin, however, recently made a bold move to kickstart the project and save face by reviving the second option through Mongolia. On December 5, Moscow and Ulaanbataar signed a memorandum of understanding for a feasibility study for a pipeline from Russia through Mongolia to China. The study is significant because it has the support of the leadership of the three involved countries. The results should be out within six months.

    The relatively high costs of the project compared with the western alternative don't make it the preferred option from a Russian point of view. According to Interfax Putin said, "I know the route there [through Mongolia] isn't easy, but a preliminary consideration of this matter showed that it's realistic, and our Chinese partners tend to agree."

    Moscow’s changing strategy seems to be motivated by recent developments and a new window of opportunity. The recent turmoil in Xinjiang could have convinced the leadership in Russia that another pipeline through the region won’t be approved due to security risks in the area. Another reason could be Moscow’s conviction that it is the right moment to push for Siberian gas to replace Central Asian energy as Beijing and Turkmenistan have been discussing a fourth line of the Central Asia-China pipeline. Although the infrastructure's deadline has been pushed back from 2016 to 2022, it remains likely that it will be completed eventually. Therefore, Moscow is pushing for its pipeline to be completed earlier to increase market share.

    Besides a lower risk of supply disruptions, the Mongolian route has another advantage. The geography of the region makes it ideal for the construction of major pipelines. Moscow and Beijing have already shown that they are capable of finishing massive projects on time when the political will is there. Fueled by Western hostility, the political and economic cooperation of the Asian giants will strengthen even further in the future. Energy is a straightforward and necessary option for Beijing and Moscow to integrate their economies. If the project is to get a green light, it will most likely happen this year as the circumstances are ideal.

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