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    Russian Economy General News: #11

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:04 am


    But reality not being what the NATO (and its minion) west wants is a good thing.

    You can't acknowledge reality when you are hip deep in living the American dream... you can't have one and the other at the same time because they are contradictory... so Russia lives in reality while the Ukraine is living the American dream...
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:07 pm



    It looks like a lot of FDI is in pharmaceutical branch plants in Russia. But Russian companies are growing like mushrooms after a warm rain
    as well.

    The sanction era (post 2014) has been a Godsend for Russia. It has basically obliterated all the distortions left by Yeltsin's shock therapy
    voodoo. In 2014 Russia had to import 100% of medical insulin. That is just shocking to me. Now this BS has been mostly rectified but
    the 1990s legacy will require years and years to overcome. At least now this is happening robustly.

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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:29 pm

    kvs wrote:
    the 1990s legacy will require years and years to overcome.  
    Not just the 1990s legacy but the whole Soviet legacy at least from the 1960s or 1970s when the country started to fall behind the West.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:12 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    the 1990s legacy will require years and years to overcome.  
    Not just the 1990s legacy but the whole Soviet legacy at least from the 1960s or 1970s when the country started to fall behind the West.

    Nobody with a clue about the current Russian state of development would conclude that it is anywhere near the gap seen before 2004.
    Thanks to Putin and the loser NATO sanctions, Russia has closed the gap substantially and is actually ahead in various areas such
    as nuclear technology, hypersonic vehicle design and shows evidence of being a world leader in pharmacology being the first and
    only country to introduce a macrophage antibiotic substitute.

    As for the usual bleating about consumer goods, complainers can go and get f*cked since the whole of NATO, the west and the
    rest of the world depends on Chinese made imports. This includes Apple, etc.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:50 am

    It is important for the world that Russia becomes strong in medical production because its morals remain more pure than western pharmaceutical companies that are more interested in income than in actually curing diseases and helping people.

    A representative of Goldman Sachs who was investing in western medical companies said that to cure someone is a bad business model, there is more money to be made treating patients than curing them... especially with contagious diseases because a cured patient no longer buys your products and cannot infect others that will also need your product, so the model is treatment rather than cure... which, for a country is a terrible model... people being treated wont be as productive, and of course the risk of spreading the disease increases... not to mention in this case the company making the treatments are foreign so money heads overseas to treat something that could be cured.

    Russia being able to medicate itself and therefore also other countries in the same situation it was in before 2014 means huge potential for export... countries like Iran and Venezuela could pay for medical supplies via oil trade, and Russia could supply cures instead of treatments which would be vastly more useful.

    The legal drug trade is huge business so Russia could earn a lot of money that could be turned to developing cures and treatments and helping people around the world that the west is not interested in curing...

    Not just the 1990s legacy but the whole Soviet legacy at least from the 1960s or 1970s when the country started to fall behind the West.

    Yes, of course... for centuries the Soviets were ahead of the west and it was only in the 60s and 70s that they started to fall behind... please...

    Such a blanket statement has to be false... fall behind in what? Spelling? Sexual deviation?
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:45 am



    Russia is a sugar plantation posing as a country Laughing

    Russia has become self sufficient in sugar production thanks to ruble devaluation and agricultural advances and development.
    Sugar beets now supply Russia enough to even start to export sugar. The sugar beat yield has gone up six times
    when the planted acreage has increased only one and half times.

    Proof that Russia is a "banana republic" Rolling Eyes

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:47 am

    Is it wrong for my first thought to be... why sugar... but production is production and having capabilities in all areas is important... it is useful to have things you can trade when money doesn't mean anything any more and food will be a high priority because we all need it...

    It is interesting that in a very short period of time a first world country like russia can increase production efficiency that dramatically... I thought the Russians offered poor productivity per hour compared with western workers plus technology.

    I am begining to think a low value currency is a good idea... it promotes domestic options automatically simply because foreign produce becomes more expensive.

    Of course it works best in Russia where there are the skills and people to develop all the technologies and skills you need. A tiny country like New Zealand would have to import some things simply because we don't have the capacity to make everything we need to the quality level we would like or want.
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    Post  Austin on Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:20 am

    Russian Forex reached ~ $550 Billion

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND
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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:59 pm

    kvs wrote:

    Russia is a sugar plantation posing as a country Laughing

    Russia has become self sufficient in sugar production thanks to ruble devaluation and agricultural advances and development.
    Sugar beets now supply Russia enough to even start to export sugar.    The sugar beat yield has gone up six times
    when the planted acreage has increased only one and half times.

    Proof that Russia is a "banana republic" Rolling Eyes


    Sugar prices have gone down because of the surplus and a couple of plants are in financial trouble. Exports are basically the only hope.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:46 pm

    flamming_python wrote:......
    Sugar prices have gone down because of the surplus and a couple of plants are in financial trouble. Exports are basically the only hope.

    When this happens and you can't lock in exports then you cut the production until supply and demand balances out, same as with oil or anything else

    Market economy 101, Ruskies should learn to play the game instead of whining

    And exports aren't ''only hope'', you do realize that agriculture operates on annual cycles and that one suboptimal harvest can flip everything on it's head?

    You better have more than less otherwise you risk going down the same toilet USSR disappeared into

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:57 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:......
    Sugar prices have gone down because of the surplus and a couple of plants are in financial trouble. Exports are basically the only hope.

    When this happens and you can't lock in exports then you cut the production until supply and demand balances out, same as with oil or anything else

    Market economy 101, Ruskies should learn to play the game instead of whining

    And exports aren't ''only hope'', you do realize that agriculture operates on annual cycles and that one suboptimal harvest can flip everything on it's head?

    You better have more than less otherwise you risk going down the same toilet USSR disappeared into



    Indeed. It's called market economics. They can easily reduce harvests without going bankrupt so exports are not the only choice.
    There would be an issue of there were technical issues with reducing harvests since processing plants would not be able to operate
    economically. That is definitely not the case.

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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:52 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:......
    Sugar prices have gone down because of the surplus and a couple of plants are in financial trouble. Exports are basically the only hope.

    When this happens and you can't lock in exports then you cut the production until supply and demand balances out, same as with oil or anything else

    Market economy 101, Ruskies should learn to play the game instead of whining

    And exports aren't ''only hope'', you do realize that agriculture operates on annual cycles and that one suboptimal harvest can flip everything on it's head?

    You better have more than less otherwise you risk going down the same toilet USSR disappeared into


    What do you mean cut the production?

    These are all private companies. There's no OPEC here.

    Try going to one of those sugar factories and tell them that they have to cut production so others can profit.

    What will happen is that the least efficient factories will close down unless export markets are opened. That's the way production will be cut, and then the prices will go up too. Don't be teaching me economics, sunny jim.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:23 am

    When this happens and you can't lock in exports then you cut the production until supply and demand balances out, same as with oil or anything else

    Market economy 101, Ruskies should learn to play the game instead of whining

    That only works in a managed economy... a communist economy where needs are forecast and production quotas are set to meet those needs... production or needs change then the plan changes, but for the individual farmer he gets paid for what he produces... his costs don't go down when he produces less so he tries to produce as much as he can because he makes money from his produce.

    Sugar does not expire so you could simply store a whole lot for times when production is not so good for whatever reason, but you need to have money in the system to absorb those costs now.

    Supply and demand is correct, but it is much more brutal than you or the west likes to make out... there are too many coffee shops in the main street... the one making the least money or earning the least profit doesn't just take one for the team and close to help the other shops become more profitable.

    Hell... the least profitable shop could be owned by big companies in the city who have share ownership and run it down so it works out a huge loss so they can claim benefits and exemptions on their taxes every year.... they don't want it to make money...

    The problem with 101 courses is that they are very basic and just cover overall generalities and don't go in to the nitty gritty...
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    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:49 am

    The problem is that people see Russian fail even when Russia is winning. A six fold sugar yield in the west would be a point of celebration and
    chest thumping "look at how good we are". But in the case of Russia, some natural reduction in production associated with a price drop is
    going to ruin the whole industry. Total nonsense. It is market economics. Do you really think that all the goods and services you shop
    for are supplied at 1000%. That no private regulation happens? Even in the mythical market economy limit of many producers making nearly
    zero profits, there would be a natural incentive to reduce supply to increase prices. Competition prevents these reductions from being
    extortionate. But in the real world you have few producers making sizeable profits and either colluding or reaching the same conclusions
    and exerting much more control over supply and prices. Think of the automobile industry. The prices you pay for cars do not reflect their
    production costs.

    Yeah, sugar beets are not cars but commodities so they have marginal prices that are always moving up and down depending on market trends.
    That is nothing peculiar to Russia, it is the generic behaviour of commodities. And there is no freaking crisis in Russia in this part of agriculture.

    A plus from the price fall for sugar is that Russian consumer price inflation rates go down. Here we see the value of having import substitution.
    Instead of the monetarist claims that "inefficient" domestic production which can be had for lower prices offshore is a "bad idea", the total opposite
    holds. Imports are prone to forex shenanigans that can increase domestic prices for imports making them expensive and not cheap. So even
    the alleged "inefficient" domestic production can provide these goods for lower prices. This is why banana republics are so poor, they don't generate
    local jobs and production in a diversified economy and instead depend on imports, thereby siphoning their wealth offshore (on top of any corrupt
    offshoring via rackets by oligarchs). Monetarist drivel about domestic inefficiency is BS since it does not apply to any real world products.
    Sugar beats are commodities and Brazilian sugar cane obviously is not the only option because supposedly Brazil has a comparative advantage
    in sugar cane production. Russian can clearly grow sugar beets instead and dial up and down levels of comparative advantage. The same goes
    for high tech products. Russia is advanced enough to produce such goods with world leading quality and features and for prices that are lower
    than the supposedly cheaper crap produced in China and re-sold by fat cat western corporations for massive markups. Total monetarist
    theoretical fail on all fronts.


    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:48 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    Russia is a sugar plantation posing as a country Laughing

    Russia has become self sufficient in sugar production thanks to ruble devaluation and agricultural advances and development.
    Sugar beets now supply Russia enough to even start to export sugar.    The sugar beat yield has gone up six times
    when the planted acreage has increased only one and half times.

    Proof that Russia is a "banana republic" Rolling Eyes


    Sugar prices have gone down because of the surplus and a couple of plants are in financial trouble. Exports are basically the only hope.

    And? Equate to how many plants exist, how many of them profit and how many of them are going to reduce overall costs to keep production going and there isn't a problem. Problem stems from some of these companies spending more than necessary and thus rely on high prices and export. Which shouldn't be the case.
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    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:36 am

    miketheterrible wrote:

    And?  Equate to how many plants exist, how many of them profit and how many of them are going to reduce overall costs to keep production going and there isn't a problem.  Problem stems from some of these companies spending more than necessary and thus rely on high prices and export.  Which shouldn't be the case.

    A six-fold increase in production indicates that the room to adjust processing is huge. We are not talking about a market of 10 people. The market
    is 147 million people. Given the demand, there will not be any 100% collapse of production. This is precluded merely by domestic price drops.
    The price drop will

    1) induce an initial production contraction of at most a few percent (not 100%)

    2) given (1) the price drop will stop and then prices will rebound.

    3) so any price drop is actually self-limiting and cannot grow in an unbounded fashion.

    Only if the domestic production is cut back too much will imports become competitive again and lead to a real contraction of Russian production
    which can rightly be called a crisis. No market player would behave in a way that ensures such an idiotic outcome. People should stop
    treating Russia as if Gosplan was still active. Even dumb profiteers generate market dynamics that never enters the scale of self-damage
    that an incompetent central planning agency can achieve.
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    Post  Hole on Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:42 am

    Isn´t it normal for a market economy that one or two weaker companies in some market segment go bust from time to time?

    If one of the sugar companies goes bancrupt then the rest will take over the market share. Or two companies will merge to lower the costs.
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    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:47 pm

    Hole wrote:Isn´t it normal for a market economy that one or two weaker companies in some market segment go bust from time to time?

    If one of the sugar companies goes bancrupt then the rest will take over the market share. Or two companies will merge to lower the costs.

    That this has to be explained in the case of Russia says everything about the hysterical detachment from reality of many people
    when it comes to Russia. Everything is doomed, everywhere there is crisis, Russia doesn't make anything and when it does
    it is like it is in a depression....

    Wake me up in a couple of years when Russia starts importing 90% of its sugar. Laughing
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    Post  flamming_python on Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:50 pm

    Hole wrote:Isn´t it normal for a market economy that one or two weaker companies in some market segment go bust from time to time?

    If one of the sugar companies goes bancrupt then the rest will take over the market share. Or two companies will merge to lower the costs.

    It is normal yes

    But on the plus side the video talks about growing exports. Export grew to over 700,000 tons in 2019 (from something like 250,000 tons the year before), and is projected to increase further. But the surplus was something like 1.9 million tons last year, and no doubt will be substantially more this year. The problem is that Russia's port infastructure is not very well suited to accomodate large increases in commodities exports, there are a number of issues albeit they are being upgraded. The railroads are also somewhat congested. There are no sugar terminals on the Black or Baltic Sea either.

    Also, the video talked about producing bioethanol, like Brazil is from its sugar. It has 30% less efficiency than normal fuel but it's cheap, and laws were changed in Russia recently to accomodate it. There's a plant being built in Bashkiria to produce bioethanol. Bioethanol can also be produced from wheat which Russia is also now growing a surplus of and has been exporting in record quantities.
    But building up bioethanol production will take time. Even the plant in Bashkiria is still under construction and only has a capacity of 20,000-30,000 tons of bioethanol per year or so.

    So in the short-term there could be trouble. In the medium-to-long term, increased sugar production is very promising.

    GarryB wrote:Is it wrong for my first thought to be... why sugar... but production is production and having capabilities in all areas is important... it is useful to have things you can trade when money doesn't mean anything any more and food will be a high priority because we all need it...

    The USSR actually pioneered the first frost-resistant sugar beet strain, there's a long history in Russia of producing sugar from sugar beets, over 200 years, and it's by far the largest cultivator of the vegetable today.
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    Post  TheArmenian on Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:19 pm

    Babushkas should start baking more tort (cakes). Problem solved Cool
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:18 am

    Isn´t it normal for a market economy that one or two weaker companies in some market segment go bust from time to time?

    If one of the sugar companies goes bancrupt then the rest will take over the market share. Or two companies will merge to lower the costs.

    On paper... but in reality size and money and power mean more... if there are two companies selling rival products... say fizzy drinks... lets call the Pepsi and Coca Cola... in their home market there are likely dozens of competitors and you will get loyal customers for each brand which might change over time as new recipes come out...
    When they move into a new market they have the money and the power to undersell all the current brands in that market... they can run at a loss for 10 years... no local company could make a loss for 10 years and remain in business so they go under and the big foreign company starts out by making them an offer... we will buy you out for less than you are worth but a reasonable price to start with... if you say no then we will undercut your prices and spend a fortune on advertising... we will also use bully tactics against you... we will provide the shops that sell our drinks with refrigerators but demand they get put in prominent places in the shop and you do not put competitors drinks in that machine either. As their market share grows they will tell small shops they can't sell any other drinks if they want to keep selling theirs...

    Eventually the local drink maker can't take it any more and sells up... the big company buys their product and rights to it and all the bottling factories and distribution systems and then sell their competitors products in the same market and increase the price for all the drinks to improve profits.

    Have a look at the Coca cola range... go to Burger King and look at the drinks options... Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Seven Up, (here in New Zealand we have another lemon flavoured fizzy drink called L&P or Lemon and Paeroa) these are products they have absorbed as they grew... there was nothing free market about it... and for countries entering the WTO there is nothing free market about it... rich getting richer
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:20 am

    The USSR actually pioneered the first frost-resistant sugar beet strain, there's a long history in Russia of producing sugar from sugar beets, over 200 years, and it's by far the largest cultivator of the vegetable today.

    Thanks for that... learn something new every day... BTW careful... when the BBC gets wind of that I can see the headline... Russian Chernobyl sugar beet GM modified to survive cold... eat Russian food and risk genetic mutation or some such shit...
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    Post  Vann7 on Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:43 pm

    More evidence surfaces ,that the polite incompetent President is the one to blame for
    the lack of diversification of Russia economy and for Russia lagging behind the west
    by 10 years at least...in computing..


    17 DECEMBER 2019

    Russia has launched an effort to build a working quantum computer, in a bid to catch up to other countries in the race for practical quantum technologies.

    Russia is far from this milestone. “We’re 10 years behind,” says Fedorov. “But there’s a lot of potential here, and we follow very closely what’s happening abroad.” Poor funding (from Putin ) has excluded Russian quantum scientists from competing with Google, says Ilya Besedin, an engineer at the National University of Science and Technology in Moscow.  

    Russia joins race to make quantum dreams a reality

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03855-z

    So there you have it.. a Russian scientist saying that the lack of funding from Russian government..
    (from Putin the great moron)  have turned Russia in an outdated nation vs the west
    in advance civilian high tech business..far behind america , and europe ,japan and china..

    And the worse part of all is not the massive under funding of Putin's on Russia high tech civilian
    business industry ,but the fact that scientist get tired of doing nothing and move  to another
    country that -DO CARES -about leading in science and technology .                                                                                    

    but finally after the pressure of the  scientific community managed to convince
    the moron in chief Putin ,to stop his mediocre vision for Russia development ,from a banana
    third world  commodities like nation ,focused economy and seriously for the first time invest
    in Russia scientific research for quantum computing..  i say this is thank to Russia being banned
    from sports olympics... made putin realize a little.. of the opportunities he miss..by allowing
    the west google, ibm and others to LEAD in world cumputing ,while putin brags about his wheat farms
    production breaking records in the world..  Rolling Eyes   as if any body cares..


    This is why all major american silicon valley companies , Google ,Microsoft, IBM and wallstreet banking
    industry are pouring a lot of money in quantum computer in US ,because they clearly understand ,the
    enormous gigantic potential that leading in quantum computer.. that building a computer that works for
    business and society benefit.. will dramatically change the development of the planet..and will take by storm
    the entire technology industry market... as much as semiconductors binary computing did.. and the huge potential for business , when there is no competition , this is not mention the nation prestige and influence
    that leading in high tech will have for the continuation and expansion of the American empire.. since is not secret
    US use their high tech business as a weapon , and countries who wants to be developed , will have to follow
    the west policies and their system if want to be part of their leading development... that US economy have systematically enjoyed for so long , in parts thanks for the lack of interest and vision of most other major nations who focus only to do business in the easy things ,that every other nation can do.. like commodities based economies as Russia and Africa are,who are the most basic form of economy of all..thay live from what mother nature produce and sell it.






    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:13 am

    Ahh boo hoo... now that they have hypersonic anti ship missile entering service they can look at more exotic stuff... much of which they are already ahead on like new radar types and systems.

    Can't fund everything and now that work has started they can look at more options to develop based on current and potential results and can make more informed decisions about which directions to go.
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:42 am

    Bah, let someone else make the investments into Quantum Computing

    Contrary to popular opinion, Russian companies have made big investments into developing domestic computer architectures, domestic processor production, domestic OS's, domestic computer computer components, domestic supercomputers even.
    These machines are mainly intended for the military and research institutes. Quantum Computers are still a gimmick, they are not yet at the level of solving problems that traditional computers can't.

    It's quite possible that they will be at this level soon, but equally it's possible that their slated capabilities are overhyped and that a lot more theoretical and practical work has to go into this technology before it can fulfil its promises.
    Sort of how with the advent of artificial neural networks in the early 70s, following the theoretical work of the 60s - everyone was predicting that we'll have self-learning artificial intelligences that would be able to solve every problem within a decade. But by the 80s we learned the hard limits of this technology, or rather we learned that the level we were at then was nowhere near sufficient to accomplish the things we wanted to. And only 4 decades of constant work later, are we actually coming close to self-driving cars, real-time facial recognition and so on, while other uses still remain out of reach.

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