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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:01 am

    "Ukraine against Russia" = "Ukraine against itself" = "How to flush a country down the toilet".

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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:05 am

    BBC news... they will tell me the truth... I will listen to them because they are an impartial outside view of the situation... in the first minute the guy rejects europe because of cultural differences, and another guy rejects the idea of putin taking over, but they still get called the pro russian forces... that is not biased at all...

    The problems in the Ukraine are internal problems between ukrainians. Kiev has rejected and cut most ties with Russia... the separatists might want better relations... otherwise I doubt Russia gives a crap... it is not their problem.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:59 pm

    Its a basket case of a country. Only way to really change it for the better is for someone to have a very strict hand. Pussyfooting around there is like trying to pussyfoot around Uganda prior to the current leader (whom might I add is a good leader).
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:29 am

    If it remains anti Russian it is not really in Russian interests for the Ukraine to have a strong leader and to recover and become a normal country...
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:56 am

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans.   But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best.   So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out.    That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion.   There is no such thing as international law.   It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right.   So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks.   All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.


    My agreement too

    Putin is pulling a Gorby
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:58 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans.   But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best.   So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out.    That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion.   There is no such thing as international law.   It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right.   So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks.   All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.


    My agreement too

    Putin is pulling a Gorby

    I doubt it was fully Putin's decision. He bitched about it too. So I dont think he has ultimate power like we think he does.
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:55 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans.   But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best.   So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out.    That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion.   There is no such thing as international law.   It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right.   So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks.   All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.


    My agreement too

    Putin is pulling a Gorby

    I doubt it was fully Putin's decision.  He bitched about it too.  So I dont think he has ultimate power like we think he does.

    Fuck all of them

    'our western partners' crowd. Oligarchs pretending to be patriots who are worried about their profits and the liberal crowd that covers for them

    And Putin is the executive. It's his job to make the decision. He made the wrong one. Severely wrong one. He threw Kiev a lifeline at the cost of Russia's interests, and appeased the same Germany and others who are plotting to run the Russian language into the ground in Eastern Europe, who support the Baltic states depriving Russians of citizenship, who support Nazi revanchism in the Ukraine, who are loyal to US interests in the Middle East and the ruining of Libya and Syria. WTF is he thinking.
    What does he think, Russia can stand alone, improve relations, while ultra-nationalist regimes are being built on its doorstep, China is being surrounded, Iran is being provoked into a major war.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:26 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans.   But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best.   So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out.    That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion.   There is no such thing as international law.   It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right.   So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks.   All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.


    My agreement too

    Putin is pulling a Gorby

    I doubt it was fully Putin's decision.  He bitched about it too.  So I dont think he has ultimate power like we think he does.

    Fuck all of them

    'our western partners' crowd. Oligarchs pretending to be patriots who are worried about their profits and the liberal crowd that covers for them

    And Putin is the executive. It's his job to make the decision. He made the wrong one. Severely wrong one. He threw Kiev a lifeline at the cost of Russia's interests, and appeased the same Germany and others who are plotting to run the Russian language into the ground in Eastern Europe, who support the Baltic states depriving Russians of citizenship, who support Nazi revanchism in the Ukraine, who are loyal to US interests in the Middle East and the ruining of Libya and Syria. WTF is he thinking.
    What does he think, Russia can stand alone, improve relations, while ultra-nationalist regimes are being built on its doorstep, China is being surrounded, Iran is being provoked into a major war.

    In the end it may just be nations like Russia, China and Iran that are somewhat normal. Yes, Russia can survive without those pigmy states to the west of it.  It isn't good what is happening but if Russia has to close its borders with them and enforce it with soldiers, fine. So be it. I'm concerned with Belarus but it's a wait and see situation. I think mindset in Belarus is they have an example next to them (Ukraine) which knows being rabid anti Russian doesn't work out well.

    But I agree with the part of Russia giving it a lifeline. They did. Instead, should have charged market price or even more for "enemy" states. They need Russia, Russia doesn't need them. If they need gas desperately, they could use Russian LNG then.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:30 am

    What life line... the money we are talking about is peanuts compared to what they will actually need to fix things to get to where they were in 2014, let alone actually make things better for themselves.

    This agreement gives them peanuts that wont do very much to improve their situation, yet at the same time it is a hell of a lot more than they are getting from the EU and the US.

    This agreement wont pull their asses out of the fire, what it will do is allow Russia to continue to sell energy to the west and make money from them... right now the Americans could build pipelines from the UAE and other gas producing nations in the Middle East to go up through Syria just as they planned to supply Europe and undercut Russia... it is not US gas of course, but when they buy the gas producing companies there they will earn the profit and push Russia out of the market.

    Russia continues to pump gas to the EU like they have always done, and transit countries get a cut like they have always done.

    In 5 years time Russia can decide if it wants to continue earning euros from EU countries and continue to pay transit fees to the Ukraine or if they want to build more bypass pipes, or just give up on pipelines and sell by the ship load instead.

    It is not in their interests to prop up kiev, but it is also not in their interests for the Ukraine to implode into violence and conflict because such a result would be even easier for the west to manipulate to hurt Russian interests.


    Also, please when you are replying to a post...you don't have to repeat every single comment made in the discussion... just repeat the piece of text you are replying to rather than the entire conversation... or perhaps don't quote it all and just make it clear by your words what comments you are replying too rather than repeating everything over and over....
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:54 pm

    So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount? When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas. They were crying that they want Russia to use the pipeline in Ukraine. So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas? A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?
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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:20 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount? When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas. They were crying that they want Russia to use the pipeline in Ukraine.  So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas?  A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?

    Russia acts unusually weak for a nation of nuclear weapon and great natural resources.
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    Post  kvs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:20 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount? When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas. They were crying that they want Russia to use the pipeline in Ukraine. So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas? A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?

    It may be some sort of incompetent attempt at soft power projection. They are playing with the hearts and minds of Ukrs. But I am
    extremely skeptical of this approach. Nobody in Banderastan will remember this Russian "charity" a year from now. Instead, Ukr
    propaganda orifices will be whipping up a frenzy of hate because "Russia screwed us over with this contract".

    In order for people to remember the good stuff, they first have to feel the pain. If Russia pursued a hard line market pricing
    approach over the last 20 years, discounts today would be something special. Instead, you have a generation of idiots who think
    that discounted prices are normal. So if Russia doesn't give a discount to their liking it is just another pretext for their
    hatred.

    Russia's pointless charity is one of the reasons that the kangaroo arbitration court in Stockholm issued the $3 billion "compensation"
    to Ukraine for "excessive" prices. Russian leaders are soft in the head and make Russia look soft and a pushover. This is a
    historical pattern for Russia, unfortunately.

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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:37 pm

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount? When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas. They were crying that they want Russia to use the pipeline in Ukraine.  So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas?  A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?

    It may be some sort of incompetent attempt at soft power projection.  They are playing with the hearts and minds of Ukrs.  But I am
    extremely skeptical of this approach.  Nobody in Banderastan will remember this Russian "charity" a year from now.  Instead, Ukr
    propaganda orifices will be whipping up a frenzy of hate because "Russia screwed us over with this contract".  

    In order for people to remember the good stuff, they first have to feel the pain.  If Russia pursued a hard line market pricing
    approach over the last 20 years, discounts today would be something special.   Instead, you have a generation of idiots who think
    that discounted prices are normal.  So if Russia doesn't give a discount to their liking it is just another pretext for their
    hatred.

    Russia's pointless charity is one of the reasons that the kangaroo arbitration court in Stockholm issued the $3 billion "compensation"
    to Ukraine for "excessive" prices.  Russian leaders are soft in the head and make Russia look soft and a pushover.  This is a
    historical pattern for Russia, unfortunately.

     

    Yup.

    Like I said Putin is stuck on autopilot. Same failed policies. No 'soft power' will work here.
    I'm not arguing for an invasion here either. The anti-Maidan movement against the coup came and went and Russia did nothing to aid it other than when Kiev moved to directly destroy the opposition with violence in the Donbass.

    The Ukrainians want to move to the West, let them. They must reap the fruits of that decision. Market prices for everything, finding other routes for gas transit, cutting off of all defense co-operation and sensitive industrial agreements, visa requirements for Ukrainians to visit Russia, etc...
    Russia though is neither here nor there. It's continuing to offer the Ukraine benefits and treat it no worse than Belarus. Any wonder Lukashenko is flirting with NATO now? He knows Russia will have his back after all no matter what, and perhaps even get scared and concede to concessions.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:03 am

    So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    Why not give them a discount, Russia is not paying market price for the stuff, even with the discount Russia is extracting money out of the Ukraine and the EU by selling them something they have in abundance... gas.

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount?

    They do need gas and the IMF are demanding they charge their people a higher price for the gas they deliver... and Russia... big evil Russia is offering them a discount while the freedom loving peaceful IMF the democratic future for the Ukraine are demanding Ukrainians pay higher prices for the gas they need to survive.

    Russia will make rather more money from EU countries buying gas because they can afford to buy it in decent volumes... Ukraine will likely only be able to afford to buy a bare minimum and will likely be using part of their transit fees to pay for it anyway...

    When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    Belarus wants to pay Russian rates without being part of Russia... Belarus knows what it needs to do to get those rates but refuses... giving them those rates therefore is counter productive to Russian interests... join us or pay more... belarus can take it or leave it... it is totally their choice.

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas.

    They do need gas, but you are ignoring another very key issue... they are fucking idiots... well the people in charge are. Antonov and Motor Sich each had one primary customer that paid its bills and bought products and basically kept them afloat.... Russia, yet Kiev happily cut ties with Russia every chance they could in every area they could get away with... if they thought it would hurt Russia they would have no deal at all... which of course would hurt them even more... but they don't seem to think about such things, or thinking they are hurting Russia helps them accept their own condition and position... in actual fact their actions have been annoying and have cost money but also led to Russia pulling finger and making stuff it should have been making all this time itself and was only buying Ukrainian stuff as a charity. Charity is over.

    So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas? A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?

    Give them a small discount... big deal... In retail most of the time the actual mark up on the product means you still make a profit even with a 50% discount... look at most shops... 10-20% discounts happen all the time every other week in fact and 30-40% discounts are quite common on special days often once or twice a month during the year and on some items 50% is offered for a limited time just to get rid of it so you can get new stuff in to sell and to free up floor space. 25% discount is peanuts... and it got them a 5 year contract instead of a 10 year one. And the right to send gas through the Ukraine to the EU to Russias other customers.

    Russia acts unusually weak for a nation of nuclear weapon and great natural resources.

    You call it weak but they are selling gas to their enemies that earns Russia billions of dollars every year... welcome to the real world of diplomacy and discussion... I realise you have become use to drone attacks and regime change from the west, but this is Russia doing business.

    It may be some sort of incompetent attempt at soft power projection. They are playing with the hearts and minds of Ukrs. But I am
    extremely skeptical of this approach. Nobody in Banderastan will remember this Russian "charity" a year from now. Instead, Ukr
    propaganda orifices will be whipping up a frenzy of hate because "Russia screwed us over with this contract".

    Honestly... who gives a shit about the Ukraine... when Ukrainians start caring then we can start caring... otherwise fuckem.

    In order for people to remember the good stuff, they first have to feel the pain. If Russia pursued a hard line market pricing
    approach over the last 20 years, discounts today would be something special. Instead, you have a generation of idiots who think
    that discounted prices are normal. So if Russia doesn't give a discount to their liking it is just another pretext for their
    hatred.

    So. Russia doesn't sell gas to be loved. Russia sells gas to make money and now they will be making money. Half of the transit fees going to the Ukraine will likely be used to buy gas from Russia anyway...

    Russia's pointless charity is one of the reasons that the kangaroo arbitration court in Stockholm issued the $3 billion "compensation"
    to Ukraine for "excessive" prices. Russian leaders are soft in the head and make Russia look soft and a pushover. This is a
    historical pattern for Russia, unfortunately.

    One more 5 year contract term and the EU will be sick of the Ukraine whether they try to steal gas or not, and by that time I doubt Trump with his second term will have improved things at all between the US and EU... lets face it... all the EU leaders and the UK leader will back some democrat dick for leadership and the americans will reelect trump... and he will remember them all wishing him to fail and he will bitch slap them again... he might even realise that the democrats have manipulated him in to doing the opposite of everything he promised the first time around... better relations with Russia and bringing US troops home from wars that might make the 1% of Americans richer but do nothing for the other 99% of Americans...

    The Ukrainians want to move to the West, let them. They must reap the fruits of that decision. Market prices for everything, finding other routes for gas transit, cutting off of all defense co-operation and sensitive industrial agreements, visa requirements for Ukrainians to visit Russia, etc...
    Russia though is neither here nor there. It's continuing to offer the Ukraine benefits and treat it no worse than Belarus. Any wonder Lukashenko is flirting with NATO now? He knows Russia will have his back after all no matter what, and perhaps even get scared and concede to concessions.

    Russia currently needs the gas pipes through the Ukraine to deliver the volume of gas the EU customers require, they have built two pipelines to increase their volume capacity and when they are both up and running cutting out the Ukraine becomes an option especially in conjunction with LNG via ships to boost volumes.
    This contract means they can supply their EU customers with the required level of gas to keep them happy for now and the Ukraine has half a decade to show its true colours regarding what it wants and how its future will progress.

    They have actively cut most ties with Russia and that is fine... but that was the choice of the leadership of the Ukraine... giving them 5 years with these decisions and their consequences in their next election it will be interesting to see which direction they want to go... keep heading to the EU or turn back to Russia.

    I think it will be interesting... the US media makes sheep of the western public they generally think what they are told and do as they are told but it is getting harder and harder to hide the worn out roads and bridges and the aging infrastructure... the emperor can't continue to dance around with everyone telling him his robes are the best quality they have ever seen... you can only pretend for so long.

    BTW if it was an example of soft power then Putin saying he was not happy with the deal will mean every western media outlet will claim a victory for the Ukraine... even though it really isn't.


    Last edited by GarryB on Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:28 am; edited 1 time in total
    Odin of Ossetia
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:24 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:So why did they give a discount to Ukraine again?

    They needed the gas. So why give them discount? When they are giving trouble to Belarus (an ally) difficult time for a discount?

    You are ignoring that very key problem here. They need the gas. They were crying that they want Russia to use the pipeline in Ukraine.  So why give Ukraine 25% discount on gas?  A nation that wants Russia dead and has said so countless of times?

    It may be some sort of incompetent attempt at soft power projection.  They are playing with the hearts and minds of Ukrs.  But I am
    extremely skeptical of this approach.  Nobody in Banderastan will remember this Russian "charity" a year from now.  Instead, Ukr
    propaganda orifices will be whipping up a frenzy of hate because "Russia screwed us over with this contract".  

    In order for people to remember the good stuff, they first have to feel the pain.  If Russia pursued a hard line market pricing
    approach over the last 20 years, discounts today would be something special.   Instead, you have a generation of idiots who think
    that discounted prices are normal.  So if Russia doesn't give a discount to their liking it is just another pretext for their
    hatred.

    Russia's pointless charity is one of the reasons that the kangaroo arbitration court in Stockholm issued the $3 billion "compensation"
    to Ukraine for "excessive" prices.  Russian leaders are soft in the head and make Russia look soft and a pushover.  This is a
    historical pattern for Russia, unfortunately.

     

    Yup.

    Like I said Putin is stuck on autopilot. Same failed policies. No 'soft power' will work here.
    I'm not arguing for an invasion here either. The anti-Maidan movement against the coup came and went and Russia did nothing to aid it other than when Kiev moved to directly destroy the opposition with violence in the Donbass.

    The Ukrainians want to move to the West, let them. They must reap the fruits of that decision. Market prices for everything, finding other routes for gas transit, cutting off of all defense co-operation and sensitive industrial agreements, visa requirements for Ukrainians to visit Russia, etc...
    Russia though is neither here nor there. It's continuing to offer the Ukraine benefits and treat it no worse than Belarus. Any wonder Lukashenko is flirting with NATO now? He knows Russia will have his back after all no matter what, and perhaps even get scared and concede to concessions.



    I am the only one who thinks Putin is a German-controlled stooge?





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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:30 am

    Germany is the EU... France screwed Russia over the Mistral deal and the UK is leaving the EU and couldn't be trusted either.

    Not suggesting Germany can be trusted but they are the only ones that listen to sense some of the time... certainly easier to talk to than the Americans.
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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:55 am

    Odin of Ossetia wrote:I am the only one who thinks Putin is a German-controlled stooge?

    He is by no means German-controlled, but his Germanophillia is leading him to compromise Russian interests in no less a manner than Peter III (the one who was deposed by his wife Catherine the Great)

    Although having said that, Peter III actually succeeded in turning Prussia from an enemy into an outright ally within just a few months, and used it to further Russia's interests in other parts of Europe instead.
    Putin hasn't. Although he certainly hasn't stopped trying, going on 20 years now  No  clown  scratch

    GarryB wrote:Germany is the EU... France screwed Russia over the Mistral deal and the UK is leaving the EU and couldn't be trusted either.

    Not suggesting Germany can be trusted but they are the only ones that listen to sense some of the time... certainly easier to talk to than the Americans.

    They listen to sense and it's possible to work with them on this or that, but at the end of the day they are supporting a threatening expansionist policy against Russia that has led to a couple of wars already, and they are one of the key countries doing so.
    In other words they are a threat and it's more against them that alliances and relations should be formed, not with them as they've clearly demonstrated that whether through loyalty to the US, or what they perceive as their own interests - they are not going to be swayed from their course.


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    Post  flamming_python on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:14 pm

    GarryB wrote:Why not give them a discount, Russia is not paying market price for the stuff, even with the discount Russia is extracting money out of the Ukraine and the EU by selling them something they have in abundance... gas.

    Why not give everyone a discount then?

    If that's how Russia treats its enemies, then what is left for its friends?
    Giving a discount for the Ukraine while insisting on market prices with Belarus, and also increasingly with Armenia. Russian policy is opportunistic and schizophrenic, no principles involved, the only thing that seems to matter is leverage not relations or past favours. Belarus has taken the lesson from this that it needs some more leverage of its own. Hence the outreach to NATO.

    They do need gas and the IMF are demanding they charge their people a higher price for the gas they deliver... and Russia... big evil Russia is offering them a discount while the freedom loving peaceful IMF the democratic future for the Ukraine are demanding Ukrainians pay higher prices for the gas they need to survive.

    It's not like they're going to remember or give a shit about any favours from Russia. Neither the leadership nor the people. Russia is the Great Satan for them. And their leadership knows that Russia only gave them the discount because they felt like their arm was being twisted, not out of good will.

    Russia will make rather more money from EU countries buying gas because they can afford to buy it in decent volumes... Ukraine will likely only be able to afford to buy a bare minimum and will likely be using part of their transit fees to pay for it anyway...

    Of course it will, but giving a discount to the Ukraine sends the wrong message, and of course whether they can pay for it or not is not Russia's problem.
    Transit benefits them, Russia pays them for it - they can use the money from that to buy gas. If they still can't afford it, then they can ask their masters in Washington for gas. If they starve and freeze during winter - not Russia's problem. Let the EU send humanitarian aid or whatever. I don't remember the Ukraine giving a crap about how it's own people in the Donbass were suffering during the first couple of winters especially... why should Russia care about the rest of the Ukraine? Maybe they should elect a better government next time? Or frankly speaking, overthrow the regime, as no pro-Russian or even neutral anything will ever be allowed to be campaigned upon and elected again.

    And aside from all the other points, again it has to be reiterated that the current Ukrainian regime and elite are enemies and wage war on Russian-speakers. They must not be helped economically.

    Belarus wants to pay Russian rates without being part of Russia... Belarus knows what it needs to do to get those rates but refuses... giving them those rates therefore is counter productive to Russian interests... join us or pay more... belarus can take it or leave it... it is totally their choice.

    Well if Belarus and Russia are forming a confederation, and already have a military alliance and a common economic bloc, then that should be enough

    Actually absorbing Belarus as a bunch of regions into Russia is not realistic and cannot be on the table. They're a people with the same roots as Russians but still clearly with their own history and their own language and 10 million-strong. I've been there, they're basically Russians, don't mind being called Russians, they have no complexes, they often even call themselves as Russians abroad too - but still they have their own state and their own (slight) cultural peculiarities and why would they want to give them up.

    The maximum sort of integration is what's being proposed now, the Union State, and if that's not enough for common gas prices, common defense industry prices, common prices and tariffs for all goods - then what's actually the point of this Union State? Belarus might calculate that it needs more leverage against Russia and to keep other options open, and that's actually precisely what they've calculated.. at the expense of course of meaningful integration.
    And this is pretty bad for Russia, because if integration with Belarus doesn't work, then what hope is there for integration with Kazakhstan and other ex-Soviet states.
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    Post  jhelb on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:19 pm

    GarryB wrote:Germany is the EU... France screwed Russia over the Mistral deal and the UK is leaving the EU and couldn't be trusted either.

    Not suggesting Germany can be trusted but they are the only ones that listen to sense some of the time... certainly easier to talk to than the Americans.

    US believes Russia can start a war because of Russian confidence in their ability to control escalation.
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:40 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Odin of Ossetia wrote:I am the only one who thinks Putin is a German-controlled stooge?

    He is by no means German-controlled, but his Germanophillia is leading him to compromise Russian interests in no less a manner than Peter III (the one who was deposed by his wife Catherine the Great)

    Although having said that, Peter III actually succeeded in turning Prussia from an enemy into an outright ally within just a few months, and used it to further Russia's interests in other parts of Europe instead.
    Putin hasn't. Although he certainly hasn't stopped trying, going on 20 years now  No  clown  scratch

    GarryB wrote:Germany is the EU... France screwed Russia over the Mistral deal and the UK is leaving the EU and couldn't be trusted either.

    Not suggesting Germany can be trusted but they are the only ones that listen to sense some of the time... certainly easier to talk to than the Americans.

    They listen to sense and it's possible to work with them on this or that, but at the end of the day they are supporting a threatening expansionist policy against Russia that has led to a couple of wars already, and they are one of the key countries doing so.
    In other words they are a threat and it's more against them that alliances and relations should be formed, not with them as they've clearly demonstrated that whether through loyalty to the US, or what they perceive as their own interests - they are not going to be swayed from their course.



    Czar Peter III squandered Russian victories against Prussia, together with the lives of thousands of the Russian troops, for no real gain.

    How did his fruitless ending the Russia's involvement in the war against Prussia benefit Russia?


    Also contrast Putin's extremely generous treatment of even a hostile Ukraine, with his predatorial pricing of the natural gas Russia sells to Poland.


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    Post  PhSt on Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:34 am

    Actually absorbing Belarus as a bunch of regions into Russia is not realistic and cannot be on the table. They're a people with the same roots as Russians but still clearly with their own history and their own language and 10 million-strong. I've been there, they're basically Russians, don't mind being called Russians, they have no complexes, they often even call themselves as Russians abroad too - but still they have their own state and their own (slight) cultural peculiarities and why would they want to give them up.

    You are subscribing right into the kind of mentality the West wants you believe in. That Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, (and in the future, Tatarstan, Siberia, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Chechnya, Dagestan etc) have their own or have developed their own history and customs and therefore should be left alone and be given independence. This is exactly what the West wants so they can sow divisions and eventually tear up Russia.

    Do not underestimate the power of brainwashing. The US and the West has demonstrated this very well. America has invaded dozens of countries (and slaughtered thousands in the process) and yet these same countries are like Whores who submit themselves to the US. Japan got atom bombed twice, yet despite these atrocious acts, the Japanese worship Americans. in Vietnam, there is a rush to make English an official language, English is increasing becoming popular in the country, this is after the US used agent orange against Vietnamese civilians during the Vietnam war. America annexed a huge swath of Mexico in the 1800s, and yet Mexicans today are willing slaves to the Americans. These are only a few examples.

    The leadership of Belarus and Ukraine are behaving in an aggressive way against Russia because they know that NATO is there to support them. This is why it is important for Russia to bring down the US economy. The collapse of the American economy will significantly weaken the country and will make it vulnerable to efforts to foment rebellion and separatist movements in California, Texas, the Pacific Northwest, among ethnic minorities and natives. Russia needs to give the Americans a taste of what it feels like to lose a huge chunk of your territory. With the US out of the picture, Russia will have less opposition to annex all former soviet territory into the new Russian federation and implement a policy of Russification. Again, with a weakened and splintered America, there will be less powerful actors to stand in the way.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:04 am

    Why not give everyone a discount then?

    You offer discounts either to people you like (not the case here), or to people you need to sell to. Only totally rich censored who ignore international laws and rules of morality can pick and choose who the sell to... it is not in Russias interests to pick and choose... I mean Russia is willing to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia for goodness sake... how much death and destruction have they caused around the place?

    But business is business, and you use discounts where necessary to get deals signed and product delivered.

    Russia needed the Ukraine to sign a deal so they can send gas through the Ukraine to other paying customers in Europe... they can afford to reduce the price to the Ukraine because lets face it... they wont be able to afford that much anyway... and even if they can afford it the money they will be using to buy it will likely be transit fees the Russians are giving them. Not much new there.

    If that's how Russia treats its enemies, then what is left for its friends?

    Doesn't matter how Russia treats the Ukraine... it will still be there tomorrow and those pipes will still go through Ukrainian territory... if you want to act tough what else to you think you will achieve? They have no reason to fold... if they can stop Russia from sending gas to its customers in Europe the US might give them some free freedom gas that the Ukraine can of course pay for with high interest loans... well that might be their best solution... block off the pipes at the border with Russia and the US deliver gas to the Ukraine who then pumps it into their pipes and sells it at a further mark up to Europe to replace the gas shortfall they are not getting from Russia because they don't have the pipeline capacity to replace the Ukrainian pipes...

    But then as you say... Germany is working against Russia... why is Russia going through all this shit to give them cheap energy anyway?

    But that will cost Russia income...

    Cutting your nose off the spite ones own face is more a Ukrainian thing than a Russian thing I think.

    It's not like they're going to remember or give a shit about any favours from Russia. Neither the leadership nor the people. Russia is the Great Satan for them. And their leadership knows that Russia only gave them the discount because they felt like their arm was being twisted, not out of good will.

    Yeah, they have a deal, and gas will now flow to the EU... that is all they should care about... bigger problems are for others to deal with.... if there even is a solution at all.


    Of course it will, but giving a discount to the Ukraine sends the wrong message, and of course whether they can pay for it or not is not Russia's problem.

    Well the obvious elephant in the room is that if they can't afford to pay for what they need they can just take it... and all Russia can do about that is to either send more to compensate and have a tantrum, or stop sending any and have all their other customers having a tantrum about not being supplied gas that is paid for.

    It is nothing to do with sending messages... they don't listen to what Russia says anyway... the other europeans ignored the fact that the Ukraine stole their gas they just blamed Russia... these people wont be friends with Russia... just get the gas to them anyway you can and take their money and have nothing else to do with them.

    And aside from all the other points, again it has to be reiterated that the current Ukrainian regime and elite are enemies and wage war on Russian-speakers. They must not be helped economically.

    Why? It is not Russias problem. Those Russian speakers are Ukrainian... if their government treats them like shit then that is a problem they (ukrainians) have with their government (ukrainian)... apart from russian speaker... I don't see any need for Russia to get involved.

    Nothing pisses me off more than seeing one country interfere in another country... western countries do it all the time... especially with drug smugglers who get caught and find out the place they are caught has the death penalty. Western governments love to complain about other governments putting their citizens to death over such crimes, but I personally have no sympathy at all for these idiots.


    Well if Belarus and Russia are forming a confederation, and already have a military alliance and a common economic bloc, then that should be enough

    It would if that is all they every wanted it to be, but I suspect they want a closer relationship... you need some perks to then become available to make it worth while... if the two countries combine and become an expanded Russian federation then what... former belarus customers get the gas cheaper than Russians pay?

    Actually absorbing Belarus as a bunch of regions into Russia is not realistic and cannot be on the table. They're a people with the same roots as Russians but still clearly with their own history and their own language and 10 million-strong. I've been there, they're basically Russians, don't mind being called Russians, they have no complexes, they often even call themselves as Russians abroad too - but still they have their own state and their own (slight) cultural peculiarities and why would they want to give them up.

    Russia is made up of areas with their own separate national identity that are part of the Russian federation... chechens etc etc... you could treat it like the US or Australia... a group of states formed up into a federation...

    And this is pretty bad for Russia, because if integration with Belarus doesn't work, then what hope is there for integration with Kazakhstan and other ex-Soviet states.

    Well if they are all going to turn to NATO for a better deal and for leverage to get a better deal from Russia you really need to ask if integration actually suits Russia. I mean it is not like you are short of territory... some of these regions add more problems than they solve...

    US believes Russia can start a war because of Russian confidence in their ability to control escalation.

    Don't understand what you mean here?

    Also contrast Putin's extremely generous treatment of even a hostile Ukraine, with his predatorial pricing of the natural gas Russia sells to Poland.

    Well first of all Putin doesn't set the prices, second Poland really is not friends with Russia, so why not get as much as they can... they will be looking at alternatives that Poland will have and they will likely aim to undercut them, so Poland is still saving money by buying Russian gas because I am sure they are not buying Russian gas to be nice to Russia...

    The leadership of Belarus and Ukraine are behaving in an aggressive way against Russia because they know that NATO is there to support them. This is why it is important for Russia to bring down the US economy. The collapse of the American economy will significantly weaken the country and will make it vulnerable to efforts to foment rebellion and separatist movements in California, Texas, the Pacific Northwest, among ethnic minorities and natives. Russia needs to give the Americans a taste of what it feels like to lose a huge chunk of your territory. With the US out of the picture, Russia will have less opposition to annex all former soviet territory into the new Russian federation and implement a policy of Russification. Again, with a weakened and splintered America, there will be less powerful actors to stand in the way.

    Russia just needs to look after its own affairs and keep its house in order and continue to develop and grow. Look at areas of weakness and make changes to make Russia stronger.

    Russia doesn't need to destroy the US... the US is doing that itself... Russia does not need to help the west either... it should look to China and India and the rest of the world and just do free fair and open business.

    Russia also needs to think about its neighbours and whether Russia would benefit from integration... the Crimea was basically Russian and the naval resources and bases there were valuable to Russia, but what does Russia get from say Georgia or Belarus or the Ukraine or one or more of the 'stans?

    Russia should set goals on growth and development and comfort and quality of life.... I am all for sexual equality, but an economy where the wife or partner can choose to work, but equally choose to give up work and stay at home to raise the children is a goal to aim for... the purpose of work is to allow you to afford to live the way you want, but most often you end up working to live, and not particularly living well.

    Would reforming the Soviet Union really benefit Russia and Russians... it seems to me that they had rather better living standards than many Russians in far away places... but why? To keep them in the Union? Better to drop those albatrosses and focus on improving things for Russians first... MRGA... Make Russia Great Again... and to be honest if you get that right... they will be at your feet begging to be part of it...

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:40 am

    ..what does Russia get from say Georgia or Belarus or the Ukraine or one or more of the 'stans?
    strategic depth: Georgia borders on Turkey, & NATO can use her against Russia; w/o Ukraine, Russia can't be an empire, as Z. Brezinski said; Napoleon & Hitler's armies crossed Belorussia on their way to Moscow; the Kaliningrad enclave can be reached by land only by crossing it or Lithuania; the Russian Border Guard troops r now in C. Asia helping to patrol the porous border with Afghanistan.
    MRGA... Make Russia Great Again...
    Russia is already "great", however, her position can & should be enhanced & improved to minimize future losses.
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    Post  flamming_python on Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:43 am

    PhSt wrote:You are subscribing right into the kind of mentality the West wants you believe in. That Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, (and in the future, Tatarstan, Siberia, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Chechnya, Dagestan etc) have their own or have developed their own history and customs and therefore should be left alone and be given independence. This is exactly what the West wants so they can sow divisions and eventually tear up Russia.

    They do have their own history and customs and the Bolshevik approach was to take the largest ethnicities and the ones most capable of standing on their own and give them their own republics. The smaller peoples of less than 2 million or so and otherwise surrounded by larger ones without external borders, they turned into autonomous republics/regions of greater ones.

    It was all the USSR anyway. But with a recognition of differences, languages and so on, and yes the right to self-determination by means of referendum.

    The alternative was to keep doing as the Europeans did, and we saw how the European empires ended in the 50s and 60s. Russia would have shared the same fate.

    With the US out of the picture, Russia will have less opposition to annex all former soviet territory into the new Russian federation and implement a policy of Russification.  Again, with a weakened and splintered America, there will be less powerful actors to stand in the way.

    Historically Russification has succeded in expanding the Russian ethnicity and core territory, but it is a discriminatory policy of the past that aims to attack the common heritage of mankind - part of which are of course world cultures, languages and so on.

    And it backfires. The policy of Russification towards the end of the 19th century had a big influence on the independence movements in Poland, Finland and birthed the Ukrainian one.
    In the USSR you had a softer policy of Russification that came about in the 70s whereby although all languages were technically equal, in practice you were looked down upon and discriminated job-wise if you didn't know Russian well enough, or didn't go to a Russian-language school; and around this period other languages began to lose in popularity and lots of people of smaller ethnicities began to assimilate. But among some larger peoples this backfired and contributed to the break-up of the USSR.

    Everyone already knows Russian anyway in Russia and most of the former-USSR. There is no need for any such policy, it's just stupid. The most important thing is to create an efficient advanced economy and a good governance system. This will allow Russia to keep its territory and draw other countries closer to it.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:47 am

    strategic depth: Georgia borders on Turkey, & NATO can use her against Russia;

    Yeah, stop thinking in terms of WWII that just simply isn't going to happen again... moving Russian forces from the border of Russia and Belarus and Ukraine to the borders of Belarus and the Ukraine and the EU makes very little difference for Russia in terms of military or economic or political terms.

    In terms of military... any third world war and they will nuke and be nuked by the west whether those missiles come from ukrainian or georgian territory is meaningless... in fact missiles launched from there will be smaller slower missiles that would be easier to intercept than missiles coming from further away.
    Anything less than WWIII and moving NATO forces that close makes them easier to target and easier to deal with as they will be further away from Germany and France and the US.

    In terms of economic the Ukraine is going to take a lot of money and work to fix and some of its nazi citizens will be fighting change tooth and nail... you might even end up with terrorist groups who resist the change... and for what... so you can fix their country for them... fix your own first.

    And in terms of politics do you think the EU and US will suddenly become friends over this sort of thing? They will use every sneaky way to undermine it... and again... I ask... for what?

    w/o Ukraine, Russia can't be an empire, as Z. Brezinski said; Napoleon & Hitler's armies crossed Belorussia on their way to Moscow; the Kaliningrad enclave can be reached by land only by crossing it or Lithuania; the Russian Border Guard troops r now in C. Asia helping to patrol the porous border with Afghanistan.

    First of all, why would Russia want to become an empire with those components returned to them... they can do better on their own... they are not like Britain or Japan needing foreign resources to survive... and Brezinski can go fuck himself... I keep hearing that faggots name all the time and it pisses me off because he is a nobody... we keep hearing he is advising the US and it fucking shows... the inept crap the US has been pulling has led to making Iran and Russia much more powerful and influential in the region the guy is clearly a communist plant... a double agent.

    Second... New Zealand is surrounded by sea so the only way anyone can reach us is by sea but strangely enough sending stuff by ship is actually much more efficient and cheaper than by land or air so it really isn't that big a deal.

    And thirdly Russia helping keep borders secure with Afghanistan is not about empire, it is about stopping the filth early instead of waiting till it reaches Russia and has to be dealt with there.

    Russia is already "great", however, her position can & should be enhanced & improved to minimize future losses.

    Of course Russia is great... the west wouldn't notice it if it wasn't... the point is that they need to keep focus on themselves and not worry about rescuing other countries that don't want to be saved... the baltic states and ukraine amd georgia treat Russia like it is bad... so screw them. China treats Russia with respect and wants to trade... well trade with them... it really is not rocket science...


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